Is there a threat effect of mandatory activation programmes for the long-term unemployed?

Exploiting changes in Denmark’s unemployment insurance (UI) system—a ‘natural experiment’ that reduced the period during which unemployed individuals could receive UI benefits without being activated—Geerdsen (Econ J 116:738–750, 2006) finds that long-term unemployed individuals are more likely to find a job when facing the threat of having to participate in mandatory activation programmes. The threat effect estimated by Geerdsen is surprisingly large enough so to be comparable with the effect of benefits exhaustion found in studies of finite-duration UI systems. This article re-examines Geerdsen’s analysis. Using better data than were available for his study, we cannot confirm his findings. When we use the same sample period as Geerdsen, we find no significant evidence of a threat effect. Using more recent data, some of our estimates of the threat effect are significant, but these estimates are generally smaller than that found by Geerdsen. To explain the difference between our results and Geerdsen’s, we show that his estimate of the threat effect is seriously upward biased because of the shortcomings of his data and because of an important error in his code.     

Does the Entrepreneurship of the Parents Affect the Opportunities of their Offspring’s Entrepreneurship? Empirical Analysis Based on the CGSS 2010–2013 Data

The whole society is paying close attention to “entrepreneurship,” which urges researchers to find an explanatory perspective relatively independent and with causality on the intergenerational transfer of entrepreneurship. Based on the data of the Chinese General Social Survey (short for CGSS) during the years 2010–2013, this paper analyzes how parents’ entrepreneurship affects the probability of their offspring’s entrepreneurship, and the results show that compared with the offspring of parents who did not start their own business, those whose parents did are more likely to choose to start their own business. In view of historical facts such as the “lay-off wave” during China’s transformation into a market economy, we use “the annual number of unemployed back to work,” a provincial-level indicator, in the 1990s as an instrumental variable to correct possible endogenous problems. We find that parents’ entrepreneurship has significant positive effects on the probability of their offspring’s entrepreneurship, which may result from the informal transfer of human capital and wealth from parents to their offspring.     

Government interventions and the size of the informal economy. The case of Iran (1971–2007)

Literature on the informal economy can mainly be divided into two different contrasting theories. According to the dual labor market theory (DLM), which considers the informal economy as a spare sector providing jobs for formally unemployed resources, unpleasant economic situations force people to act informally. Legalists, on the other hand, blame government interventions such as minimum wages or price control policies for pushing rent-seeking firms toward the shadows. This study using an Error-correction Multi-Indicators Multi-Causes (EMIMIC) model, a systematic method consisting of structural and measurement equations, shows that these two theories are complementary rather than substitutes for one another. While long-term trends are explained by legalists, DLM theory is also suitable for explaining short term changes. Iran’s economy in the period 1971–2007, which was characterized by government interventions, is chosen for this purpose. These interventions are measured by Principal Component Analysis. Finally, an index of the size of Iran’s informal economy is also reported.     

Welfare rules,business cycles,and employment dynamics among lone parents in Norway

How lone parents combine work and welfare in earning a living has long inspired discussion. Yet little is known of their actual labor market attachment, either over calendar time or during individual lifetimes. In this article we address both issues, first by studying Norwegian Labor Force Surveys to illuminate the labor force participation of lone parents during the last two decades and by comparing the trends revealed with similar developments among married and cohabiting parents. Next, we analyze individual labor market transitions, using longitudinal data from administrative registers. The analyses demonstrate large differences in the labor market behaviors of single and nonsingle parents in Norway, even when controlling for differences in human capital and care responsibilities. Shifting labor demand and welfare reforms that prioritize paid work have both affected the employment of lone parents, but favorable economic conditions seem to have played a larger role than stringent social policies in increasing their employment activity.     

Modelling labour market dynamics with on-the-job search

A flow model of the Dutch labour market is used to calculate the effects of policy options which aim to enhance employment, especially at the lower end of the labour market. The model distinguishes between good and bad jobs, allows for endogenous wage formation and job creation, and describes the flows between these jobs so that job-to-job mobility and the vacancy chain is made endogenous. In the matching process employed job seekers with bad jobs compete with short-term and long-term unemployed for the filling of vacancies for good jobs. In each period part of the good and bad jobs are destroyed which results in inflow into unemployment. The model explicitly describes the flow of unemployed through the various duration classes of unemployment and it allows for negative duration dependence so that the escape probability from unemployment for long-term unemployed is smaller than for short-term unemployed. The model is used to simulate the effects of external shocks, such as structural productivity shocks. An impulse response analysis using the model is also conducted considering labour market policies which aims especially to enhance employment at the lower end of the labour market. In particular, the effects are analysed of measures subsidising the opening of bad jobs (jobs at the lower end of the labour market) and a rise in the productivity of a bad job as compared to a good job which can be achieved by changes in the tax system.     

Geographical variations in expenditure of learning disability services in England

This article investigates the determinants of local authority Learning Disability (LD) expenditure in England. It adopts a reduced form of demand and supply model, extended to account for possible interdependence between municipalities. Risk factors such as ‘people aged under 14’, ‘mortality rate’ and ‘lone parents’ seem to play an important role in explaining geographical variation of spending. Further, labour municipalities on average allocate lower resources on LD than do other political parties. Finally, results corroborate recent findings in economics that authorities interact with each other when allocating public resources.     

Unemployment Durations in West Germany Before and After the Reform of the Unemployment Compensation System during the 1980s

Abstract. This paper analyzes empirically the distribution of unemployment durations in West Germany during the 1980s and 1990s. It therefore covers periods before and after the changes during the mid‐1980s in the maximum entitlement periods for unemployment benefits for older unemployed. The analysis is based on the IAB employment subsample containing administrative data for about 500,000 individuals. Since these data only partly reveal the unemployment duration in an economic sense, we use a narrow and a wide proxy for unemployment. Our empirical analysis finds significant changes in the distribution of non‐employment durations for older unemployed. At the same time, the distribution of unemployment durations between jobs remained unchanged after the reforms. Our findings clearly show that many firms and workers used the more beneficial laws as a part of early retirement packages. Surprisingly, for those workers who found and accepted a new job, we do not observe a prolongation of their search periods to a sizeable extent.     

Welfare Reform and the Labour Supply of Lone Parents in Australia: A Natural Experiment Approach

Large shifts in the labour supply of lone parents in Australia were observed between 1986 and 1990. Changes in the observed characteristics of lone parents explain only a small portion of these shifts. Propensity score matching and difference-in-differences are used to estimate the effects of the substantial policy shifts implemented in 1987. Control groups are constructed from the sample of married mothers. Results suggest that the policy reforms caused a substantial increase in the employment of lone parents while causing a reduction in the hours of work among the workers.     

The social costs of unemployment: accounting for unemployment duration

This article contributes to the literature on unemployment and well-being by investigating the linkage between personal life satisfaction and a macroeconomic indicator of the duration of unemployment. Using data for more than 50?000 individuals in 10 European countries, 1992–2002, we find that the social costs of unemployment, in terms of general unemployment's impact on life satisfaction, relate significantly and to a considerable extent to unemployment duration. It is thus not just the risk of becoming or staying unemployed that people worry about, but especially the prospect of staying long-term unemployed. This fear affects employed and unemployed people alike. Our findings provide a strong point for focusing labour market policies on long-term unemployment, in addition to considerations of human capital depreciation.     

城市居民环境友好行为意向形成机制的性别差异

利用在海口市的调查数据,分析环境友好行为意向形成的性别差异。结果发现：①女性报告的环境友好行为意向强于男性;②影响男女环境友好行为意向形成的因素不同,产生机制也不同。环境敏感度、环境态度、反应效能感是男性环境友好行为意向的预测因子,后果意识对男性的环境友好行为意向形成具有调节作用;环境敏感度、环境行动知识、反应效能感与后果意识是女性环境友好行为意向的预测因子;在特定条件下,环境行动知识对女性的环境友好行为意向形成具有调节作用。研究结果能为居民环境教育,尤其是进行性别差异化教育提供科学依据。     

The making of Beveridge's Unemployment (1909): three concepts blended

The aim of this paper is to re-examine William Henry Beveridge's (1879?–?1963) early ideas on unemployment. After developing through three phases (‘from the unemployable to the unemployed’, ‘from the unemployed to unemployment’, and ‘perfection of the labour market’), Beveridge finally accomplished a coherent package of remedies for unemployment: labour exchanges with National Insurance on the basis of the living wage principle (previously unexplored but evident through his work). These three concepts, perfectly blended, formed his original and unique standpoint. By analysing this development of ideas, we can position Beveridge's doctrine of unemployment more appropriately in the history of economic thought.     

Labour Market Policies and Long-term Unemployment in a Flow Model of the Australian Labour Market

This paper develops a general equilibrium job matching model, which is used to assess the impact of active labour market policies, reductions in unemployment benefits and reductions in worker bargaining power on long-term unemployment and other key macro variables. The model is calibrated using Australian data. Simulation experiments are conducted through impulse response analysis. The simulations suggest that active labour market programs (ALMPs) targeted at the long-term unemployed have a small net impact and produce adverse spillover effects on short-term unemployment. Reducing the level of unemployment benefits relative to wages and worker bargaining power have more substantial effects on total and long-term unemployment and none of the spillover effects of ALMPs.     

An evaluation of the management of the Finnish employment service

This paper analyses the efficiency of the Finnish Employment Service's management in selecting unemployed individuals who are offered a job. The database used considers short-term unemployed individuals who face the same labour market conditions in 1996. Duration analysis with a Weibull model has been performed in order to study the determinants of the transition probability from unemployment into employment and the impact of receiving job offers through the Employment Service (ES). In order to carry this out, it has been taken into account that the reception of such job offers may be endogenous because the ES selects the individuals who will receive the offers. The empirical results suggest that the decisions made by the ES are adequate in the sense that they increase the benefit of society, compared with a random assignment of the vacancies offered through the ES. Moreover, the effects of the other determinants depend on whether the individual receives offers. The results also point out that individuals who receive no offers through the ES are more likely, as time passes by, to be discouraged in searching for a job than those who do.     

The Returns to Agricultural Research and the Underinvestment Hypothesis - A Survey

Economic research on agricultural research commenced with cost-benefit and production function analyses in the 1950s and 1960s, which consistently showed very high social rates of return. Attention next focused on market failure in the funding of research (the ‘underinvestment hypothesis’), and on some political economy and public choice issues. This article surveys the area, by asking the following questions: How much research to do? What research to do? Who gains and loses? What can be said concerning the role of government?     

Stuck in the Middle: Off-Farm Employment and Caregiving Among Middle-Aged Rural Chinese

ABSTRACT

Using the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) 2011–12 baseline data, this contribution explores to what extent taking care of grandchildren and frail parents influences rural middle-aged Chinese adults’ off-farm employment. The findings show that, conditional on socioeconomic and demographic characteristics, taking care of grandchildren has a negative effect on rural middle-aged men's and women's off-farm job participation and hours worked. Caregiving for parents does not have the same negative effects on off-farm employment and hours worked. Furthermore, the study finds that annual earnings are also negatively affected by caregiving responsibilities, especially for women and men taking care of grandchildren.     

Economic efficiency adjusted for risk preferences

This study investigates the impact of risk preferences on cost and revenue efficiency for a sample of farms. Risk preference scores were used to measure risk aversion. Cost and revenue efficiency were estimated using traditional input and output measures, and then re-estimated including each farm’s risk preference score. Comparisons were made between farms with and without a change in efficiency when each farm’s risk preference was included in the analysis. As expected, risk preference plays an important role in explaining farm inefficiency. Failure to account for risk preferences overstates inefficiency, particularly for slightly risk averse and risk neutral farms.     

The poverty experience of lone mothers and their children

Lone mothers, as sole caregivers and women, face unique challenges to guaranteeing the economic well-being of their children compared to lone fathers. While all lone parents face a trade-off in time spent earning wages and time spent caring for children, mothers are likely to earn wages lower than fathers, thus increasing their chances of falling into poverty. Using data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2013 Current Population Survey, we estimate the size of the gender poverty gap among lone-parent families. We apply the Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition to assess whether this gap can be solely attributed to parent and family demographics. Much of the poverty gap, however, is attributed to unobservables, suggesting the increased likelihood of being in poverty for lone-mothered families may be, in part, due to gender-based discrimination in labour markets.     

A Keynesian explanation of Indian government bond yields

Abstract

John Maynard Keynes held that the central bank’s actions mainly determine long-term interest rates through short-term interest rates and various monetary policy measures. His conjectures about the determinants of long-term interest rates were made in the context of advanced capitalist economies and were based on his views on liquidity preference, ontological uncertainty, and the formation of investors’ expectations. Is Keynes’s conjecture that the central bank’s action is the main driver of long-term interest rates valid in emerging markets, such as India? This paper empirically investigates the determinants of changes in Indian government bonds’ nominal yields. Changes in short-term interest rates, after controlling for other crucial variables, such as changes in the rate of inflation and the rate of economic activity, take a lead role in driving the changes of the nominal yields of Indian government bonds. This suggests that Keynes’s views on long-term interest rates can also be applicable to emerging markets. The empirical findings reveal that higher fiscal deficits do not appear to exert upward pressures on government bond yields in India.     

美国的环境管制影响分析

根据外部性理论,只有当实施环境管制政策的社会收益大于社会成本时,才意味着政府管制相对于市场缺失是更有效率的。因此,成本—收益分析可以作为评估管制政策效率的标准之一。20世纪70年代以来,美国最早在环境领域引入系统的成本—收益分析(管制影响分析),取得了较好的效果。借鉴并及早引进管制影响分析对于提高我国环境管制政策的制定和执行效果有重要意义。     

Regional unemployment and norm-induced effects on life satisfaction

While rising unemployment generally reduces people’s happiness, researchers argue that there is a compensating social-norm effect for the unemployed individual, who might suffer less when it is more common to be unemployed. This empirical study rejects this thesis for German panel data, however, and finds that individual unemployment is even more hurtful when regional unemployment is higher. On the other hand, an extended model that separately considers individuals who feel stigmatised from living off public funds yields strong evidence that this group of people does in fact suffer less when the normative pressure to earn one’s own living is lower. A comprehensive discussion reconciles these findings with the existing research and concludes that to find evidence for the often described social-norm effect it is worthwhile to analyse disutility associated with benefit receipts.