The winner-loser anomaly: recent evidence from Greece

This article finds evidence of significant reversals in returns over the medium term in Greek stocks. In contrast with previous research, return reversals are more pronounced for past winners, suggesting that the market overreacts to a greater extent to good news. These contrarian returns are particularly elevated when portfolios are formed using quartiles and during tranquil and bull markets. The optimum contrarian strategy involves skipping the first 6 months of the holding period and implementing the contrarian strategy for a period of 18 months, as returns exhibit continuation followed by reversal. The profitability of the contrarian investment strategy is robust to adjustments for risk and seasonalities. It is the tranquil times and not the crisis/volatile times that generates a significant and profitable contrarian strategy. The recent credit crisis and resulting stock market falls, resulted in extreme movements in some Greek stocks and testing of the contrarian strategy problematic, especially when portfolios are decile ordered. Our findings also highlight the importance of survivorship bias and also suggest that contrarian strategies that just use market beta may be ill-equipped to take into consider extreme market movements, illiquidity and short-sales constraints.     

我国证券市场信息传染效应研究——基于日本福岛核电危机背景

通过事件研究法对比研究我国电力行业中直接经营核电类业务的公司和其他非核电类的公司在福岛核电危机发生前后的不同表现,发现在中国证券市场上确实存在信息传染效应,为我国上市公司信息传染效应的研究提供了新的视角.     

不同类型环境规制下中国工业绿色转型问题研究

资源环境约束下,通过环境规制设计来激励绿色技术创新及推动工业绿色转型具有重要意义。但现有研究忽视了不同类型环境规制及不同地区不同类型环境规制的差异性,因而难以提出有针对性和差异化的规制政策,进而难以有效促进工业绿色转型。文章在区分不同类型及不同地区不同类型环境规制的基础上,运用动态面板模型检验了环境规制对工业绿色转型的非线性影响效应。研究结果表明：不同类型环境规制对工业绿色转型的影响存在异质性,命令控制型环境规制的非线性影响效应并不存在,但经济激励型环境规制与自愿意识型环境规制的增强,可明显提高绿色技术创新水平及促进工业绿色转型。东部地区命令控制型环境规制并未对绿色技术创新及工业绿色转型形成有效激励,但经济激励型环境规制与自愿意识型环境规制的正向促进效应明显。中西部地区命令控制型环境规制有着负向影响效应,经济激励型环境规制和自愿意识型环境规制对绿色技术创新和工业绿色转型的激励效应不明显。文章对于不同类型环境规制的衡量有利于未来进一步扩展和细分环境规制的类型,以深入探讨不同类型环境规制的协同效应;研究结论对科学设定环境规制强度和合理选择环境规制形式以激励绿色技术创新及推动工业绿色转型具有启示意义。     

环境责任视角下非正式环境规制对企业绿色技术创新的影响——一个有中介的调节模型

环境问题是影响我国生态经济健康发展的关键,而积极释放环境履责信号来推动绿色技术创新发展则是企业应对经济高质量发展的必然途径,特别是在互联网传媒带来的网络舆论效应凸现的当下,媒介公众的外部舆论压力已成为企业开展绿色创新活动的新驱动力.基于此,本文尝试从环境责任视角,探究公众、媒介外部舆论压力对企业绿色技术创新能力的内在作用机制,引入环保投资作为调节变量,构建相应理论模型,并以2012—2018年重污染上市公司数据为样本,运用固定效应模型开展了实证研究.结果表明:公众关注对企业绿色技术创新具有显著正向影响;媒介关注与企业绿色技术创新间存在\"倒U型\"关系;公众关注与媒介关注间存在显著的交互作用,且在提高企业绿色技术创新方面存在替代效应;环境责任在媒介关注与企业绿色技术创新的非线性关系中具有完全中介作用;环保投资强化了媒介关注与企业绿色技术创新间的非线性关系,但削弱了公众关注对企业绿色技术创新的影响.     

The role of legal status in influencing bank financing and new firm growth

We provide an empirical assessment of the suggestion, based on Severo (2012), to use a systemic liquidity risk index (SLRI) for estimating liquidity premia that could be charged on large banks as a compensation for the implicit liquidity support obtained from public authorities (Blancher et al., 2013). To this end we compute, over the period January 2004–December 2012, a parsimonious and fully documented SLRI. We also investigate its statistical significance in explaining the level and variability of stock returns for a group of large international banks across the subprime and the Eurozone sovereign debt crises. Main findings are two: our more parsimonious SLRI is close to Severo’s but provides a stronger signal of liquidity stress and recovery episodes; we consistently fail to detect, within and across the two crises, a stable group of banks among the global systemically important ones listed by the Financial Stability Board.     

企业R&D投资与市场收益关系——基于国家认定企业技术中心的数据

研发投资是企业自主创新能力的根本体现,出于投资者对研发型企业潜在增长能力、赢利能力和发展空间的高预期,研发型企业一般存在市场超额收益,企业研发密度与市场收益正相关。本文以国家认定企业技术中心为样本对这一问题作了研究。实证结果表明,国家级企业技术中心所属单位的市场平均收益高于市场组合的平均收益,整体上市的国家级企业技术中心单位比部分上市的国家级企业技术中心单位具有更高的市场收益。同时,这些结论也得到收益增长幅度指标的证实。     

利用“绿箱”政策发展我国优势农产品

自从我国加入WTO后,所允许使用的重点农业支持政策是《农业协议》所规定的“绿箱”政策,本文的中心就是围绕如何利用“绿箱”政策发展我国优势农产品。第一部分介绍了“绿箱”政策的内容;第二部分指出我国“绿箱”政策实施中存在的问题;第三部分指出利用“绿箱”政策发展我国优势农产品的对策。     

影子经济影响绿色创新效率的门槛效应

首先构建包含影子经济和绿色创新效率的微观模型,探讨影子经济对绿色创新效率的影响机理,研究发现,影子经济与绿色创新效率之间存在非线性关系。然后,选取“自主创新”和“两型社会”示范区的湖南省地级市面板数据,采用多指标多原因模型(MIMIC)测算影子经济和DEA-SBM模型度量绿色创新效率,结果表明:2000—2016年,湖南省影子经济和绿色创新效率均呈不断上升趋势。基于此构建面板门槛回归模型,实证检验影子经济影响绿色创新效率的非线性关系,实证结果显示:影子经济与绿色创新效率之间存在双重门槛,且呈现出倒“N”型特征;此外,政府管制、交通条件、受教育程度、外商直接投资水平、产业结构、城市化水平也不同程度地影响绿色创新效率。     

The impact of mergers on acquiring firm shareholder wealth: The 1905–1930 experience

From the standpoint of investors successful acquisitions increase profitability and stock Contemporary studies find acquiring firm shareholders earning small gains before and large losses after consolidation. Using modern financial market procedures, we examine a portfolio of 191 acquiring firms from 1905 to 1930 to determine the impact on firm owners of early industrial acquisitions in the United States and the effect of institutional changes on takeover gains. Acquisitions from 1905 to 1930 raised shareholder wealth by more than 3 percent, an increase exceeding gains from more recent mergers. Stock price continued to rise after completion for acquisitions before World War I, but fell dramatically for acquisitions during the oligopoly merger wave of the late 1920s.We would like to thank Patrick Byrne and Tara Nussman for help in collecting the financial data, Ralph Nelson for permitting us to use his and Carl Eis's worksheets on merger activity from 1905 to 1930, and George Bittlingmayer, Malcolm Burns, David Gulley, Stephen Grubaugh, Lori Leeth, John Matsusaka, Dennis Mueller, Rexford Santerre, Scott Sumner, Tugrul Temel, and Nikhil Varaiya for their helpful comments.     

环境规制差异、创新驱动与中国经济绿色增长

运用2008—2015年中国30个省(自治区、直辖市)的面板数据,基于Malmquist-Luenberger指数模型测算了考虑能源消耗和非期望产出的中国省域绿色全要素生产率,利用所构建的创新驱动能力评价指标体系测度我国各省区的创新驱动能力。将环境规制划分为行政型、市场型和公众参与型三类,运用面板数据模型考察了不同类型的环境规制、创新驱动及两者的交互项对绿色全要素生产率的影响。结果表明:不同类型的环境规制对中国经济绿色增长的影响具有区域差异;创新驱动对中国区域经济绿色增长有显著的促进作用;在促进中国经济绿色增长方面,环境规制与创新驱动不仅发挥了各自的积极作用,而且两者还显示出一定的协同效应。     

The effect of debt capacity on the long-term stock returns of debt-free firms

This article examines the long-term stock market performance of debt-free firms with high and low levels of debt capacity to see whether they are different. We use Fama and French’s (1993) three-factor and Carhart’s (1997) four-factor models to examine the subsequent 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5-year stock returns of firms that stayed debt free for 3- and 5-year periods. We measure debt capacity as the expected asset liquidation value of a firm, which is proxied by the firm-level tangibility measure defined by Berger, Ofek, and Swary (1996). We find that regardless of the level of debt capacity, zero-debt firms generate positive abnormal returns in the long run after controlling for key risk factors. We also find support for the notion that preserving debt capacity in the form of higher tangibility reinforces the positive abnormal returns over and above the effect of a zero-leverage policy.     

Information in stock prices: the case of the 2016 U.S. presidential election

On the day before the 2016 U.S. presidential election, the odds of Hillary Clinton winning the presidency, according to political prediction markets, were above 90%. Surprisingly, Donald Trump won the Electoral College handily. In this study, we examine how movements in specific stock prices foreshadowed the eventual outcome. Specifically, we conduct a series of standard event-study tests focused on pharmaceutical companies, which became a focal point during the presidential campaign. Results show that while stocks of pharmaceutical companies significantly underperformed the market prior to the election, prices substantially increased beginning three days before the election outcome. This increase is both statistically significant and economically meaningful and robust to various event-study methodologies. These results suggest that some sectors of the stock market seemed to anticipate the election outcome.     

How stock markets react to regulatory sanctions? Evidence from France

Our study of how the stock market reacts to sanction announcements by the French financial regulator from 2004 to 2017 finds that the market reacts negatively when a sanction is announced in the press. Cross-sectional regression models show that the penalties are too low to influence market reactions. Our results suggest that after the financial crisis of 2008, a plethora of news on financial wrongdoings has desensitized markets to announcements of sanctions against large companies.     

环境规制工具、研发补贴对绿色技术创新的影响研究

梳理了环境规制工具、研发补贴对绿色技术创新的作用机理,以2008—2018年中国工业省级面板数据为样本,利用层次回归分析法实证检验了环境规制工具、研发补贴对绿色技术创新的直接影响与联合影响,并进一步检验了这两类影响的空间异质性。结果显示:(1)直接管制型规制强度与绿色技术创新显著负相关,经济激励型规制强度、研发补贴强度与绿色技术创新显著正相关。(2)从全国层面看,研发补贴对直接管制型规制对绿色技术创新的影响存在正向调节效应,研发补贴与经济激励型规制对绿色技术创新存在正向交互效应。(3)对于东部沿海与长江中下游地区,研发补贴与经济激励型规制对绿色技术创新的交互效应不显著;对于中西部非长江中下游地区,直接管制型规制对绿色技术创新的抑制作用较弱,研发补贴对直接管制型规制绿色创新激励效应的正向调节作用较强。