工资、出口贸易与全要素生产率:1979-2009

文章使用DEA方法测算了中国1979-2009年各省份的全要素生产率,结果发现全要素生产率的增长偏离工资的增长,这与Madsen和Damania(2001)等人的研究相矛盾。为此,结合中国实际情况,文章从需求引致创新角度对此问题进行了理论分析。在理论分析的基础上,文章利用两步系统广义矩(Two-step system GMM)估计方法控制全要素生产率对工资可能产生的影响后进行了经验分析。结果表明,1979-1997年,工资与全要素生产率的增长基本一致;工资、出口均显著促进全要素生产率的提升;1998-2009年,全要素生产率的增长偏离工资的增长,主要因为我国出口额大幅增加抵消了工资上涨给企业带来的压力,降低了企业的创新动力。     

Productivity and misallocation during a crisis: Evidence from the Chilean crisis of 1982

Measured total factor productivity often declines sharply during financial crises. In 1982, the Chilean manufacturing sector suffered a severe contraction in output, most of which can be accounted for by a falling Solow residual. This paper uses establishment data from the Chilean manufacturing census to examine the decline in measured TFP. To quantify the contribution of resource misallocation, I develop a measure of allocational efficiency along the lines of Hsieh and Klenow (2009) and derive the appropriate measure of aggregate productivity to which it should be compared. Across specifications, within-industry allocational efficiency either remained constant or improved in 1982, while a decline in between-industry allocational efficiency accounts for about one-third of the reduction in TFP. Industries more sensitive to domestic demand – durables and industries with low exports – experienced larger declines in measured TFP. This finding is consistent with large adjustment costs and underutilization of inputs. Reduced capital utilization played a substantial role, accounting for 25–50 percent of the decline in measured TFP.     

Is there an export or import-led productivity growth in rapidly developing Asian countries? a multivariate VAR analysis

In contrast to cross-country studies, the paper investigates the relationships between trade and labour productivity for nine rapidly developing Asian countries in a time-series framework using a vector error-correction model. Independent tests on the long-run and short-run relationship between trade variables of exports and imports and productivity are conducted. The results suggest that trade has an important impact on productivity and output growth in the economy, however it is imports that provide the important?‘virtuous’?link between trade and output growth. The results indicate that exports and imports have qualitatively different impacts on labour productivity. The long-run result shows that there is no causal effect from exports to labour productivity growth for Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Taiwan and Thailand; thereby suggesting that there is no export-led productivity growth in these countries. However, significant causal effects were found from imports to productivity growth, suggesting import-led productivity growth in India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Taiwan. In addition, the results indicate that imports tend to have greater positive impact on productivity growth in the long run.     

What determines the productivity growth? Evidence from Chinese renewable energy firms by using Bayesian stochastic frontier approach

This paper examines the determinants of the total factor productivity (TFP) growth of Chinese renewable energy firms from 2011 to 2016, using a Bayesian stochastic frontier approach. Employing the “Bauer–Kumbhakar” decomposition method, the TFP growth is decomposed into the technology part and the market part. The empirical results reveal that the TFP improvement of Chinese renewable energy firms is mainly due to technical progress, followed by technical efficiency change. With regard to the market part, the misallocation of production factors has hindered the TFP growth. Our findings also indicate that only for large firms, the TFP growth can benefit from the scale economy effect. Compared with non‐state‐owned firms, state‐owned firms suffer much lower allocative efficiency.     

Firm productivity and importing: Evidence from Chinese manufacturing firms

This paper investigates various aspects of the relationship between firm productivity and importing for a large sample of Chinese firms between 2002 and 2006 making a distinction between the origin, variety, skill and technology content of imports. Employing a random effects probit model and a propensity score matching with difference‐in‐differences (PSM–DID) approach and treating imports as endogenous in our measure of total factor productivity (TFP) (De Loecker 2007), we test the self‐selection and learning‐by‐doing hypotheses. Our results show evidence of a bi‐directional causal relationship between importing and productivity. Although importing firms tend to be more productive before entering the import market, once they start importing firms experience significant productivity gains for up to two years following entry. We also find evidence of learning effects following the decision to import, which is stronger when import starters source their products from high‐income economies, import a wider variety of products and import products with a higher skill and technology content. A number of robustness checks confirm the learning effects of importing on TFP growth.     

ChinHow R&D Investments Influence TFP Growth: Evidence from China’s Large and Medium- Sized Industrial Enterprises

This paper investigates the potential channels through which R&D may influence TFP growth using industry-level panel data of China’s large and medium-sized industrial enterprises over the period of 2000–2007. Comparing with existing literature, we provide a closer look of the relationship between R&D and TFP growth by decomposing TFP growth into efficiency change and technical change components using Malmquist productivity index and distinguishing between upstream R&D spillovers and downstream R&D spillovers. We find TFP grow slightly during 2000–2007, and R&D investment indeed serves as an engine of productivity growth just as endogenous growth theories argued, which is largely because R&D accelerates technical progress even it also results in enlarging technical inefficiency. However, we find a robust negative effect of downstream R&D spillovers on TFP growth, the effects of upstream is positive but not statistically significant. In addition, we do not find the positive effects of human capital on TFP as endogenous growth theories indicated, but find human capital severs as “assimilation device” for R&D spillovers both in promoting TFP growth and increasing technical efficiency even the effects on technical progress is adverse.     

金融发展与全要素生产率增长* ——基于中国省际面板数据的实证分析

本文以2000-2012年中国省际平衡面板数据为样本,从金融规模发展和金融效率发展两个维度衡量金融发展水平,实证检验金融发展与全要素生产率增长的联系以及中间渠道。研究结果发现,2000-2012年中国全要素生产率出现正增长且主要是由技术进步推动的;无论是从金融规模发展角度还是从金融效率发展角度去分析,都证实了金融发展显著地促进了全要素生产率的增长,金融效率发展的全要素生产率增长效应显著地高于金融发展规模的全要素生产率增长效应,且金融发展促进全要素生产率增长的中间渠道是技术进步效应而非技术效率增长效应;通过引入衡量金融发展缺陷程度指标（民间金融发展规模）,证实了中国金融发展体系效率低下。民间金融发展具有TFP增长效应,且民间金融发展TFP增长效应要显著地大于正规金融发展的TFP增长效应。     

Refugee Immigration and Total Factor Productivity

This paper uses panel cointegration and causality techniques to examine the long-run relationship between refuge immigration and total factor productivity (TFP), a relationship that has not yet been examined in the literature. It is found that refugee immigration has, on average, a positive long-run effect on TFP, suggesting that refuge immigration increases the diversity of skills and ideas available to society as a whole, which in turn promotes specialization and innovation. It is also found that causality is unidirectional from refugee immigration to TFP, suggesting that refugees are primarily motivated by the push factor of persecution in the source country rather than by productivity (and hence welfare) gains as a potential pull factor in the destination country.     

中国商业银行业的全要素 生产率增长及其分解——基于24家银行面板数据的实证分析

本文收集了2003-2010年24家商业银行的非平衡面板数据,首先通过构建随机前沿生产模型,对中国银行业的技术效率进行测算,然后利用TFP分解模型对商业银行TFP增长的驱动因素及其演变过程进行了系统分析。研究发现,整体来说,中国银行业的全要素生产率在所有年份均实现了明显的增长。相对而言,国有大型商业银行在研究初期并没有显示出明显的优势,但随着时间的推移,其TFP增长率开始不断上升,并逐渐赶超中小型银行。通过对TFP增长率的分解计算,技术效率变化和要素配置效率变化对中国银行业TFP增长具有较强的拉动作用,技术进步的影响并不明显,而规模效率变化的负面作用最为显著。     

从要素市场化看供给侧改革的中长期实践路径*——基于随机前沿模型增长核算的分析

本文从要素市场化角度分析中国供给侧改革的中长期实践路径。从经济增长核算的角度出发,本文基于2005—2013年全国分省面板数据,通过超越对数生产函数形式的随机前沿模型测算经济增长来源并分解全要素生产率,发现TFP是非农经济增长的主要来源。然而TFP分解中技术效率偏低,且逐年下降,成为阻碍TFP增长以及经济增长的一大桎梏,而要素市场扭曲是技术效率项偏低的重要原因。促进要素市场化能够推进要素向高效企业流动,进而提高社会整体生产效率水平,本文认为,这是中国供给侧结构性改革的中长期实践路径。     

Productivity Growth And Market Structure In Telecommunications

This study examines sources of telecommunications sector productivity growth. Total factor productivity (TFP) growth is calculated using the Malmquist productivity index for a sample of 74 countries for the period 1991 through 1995. An econometric model is estimated which relates TFP growth to output growth, network digitisation, telecommunications development, output-mix, the business cycle and market structure. Model estimates suggest that higher digitisation rates dampen TFP growth in the short run, and cross-subsidisation of services creates inefficiency. However, developing countries can increase TFP growth through catch up, and increased privatisation and competition are conducive to productivity growth.     

中国农业全要素生产率的变动趋势及区域差异——基于1978～2008年曼奎斯特指数分析

使用1978～2008年省域面板数据,运用非参数曼奎斯特(Malmquist)生产率指数模型测算了中国农业全要素生产率的变动指数,并分析了全要素生产率(TFP)的时空差异。结果表明:全国、三大地区及绝大多数省份农业TFP的增长主要属于技术进步型的增长;全国及三大地区农业TFP增长呈现出明显的波动特征;农业TFP增长呈现出显著的区域间和区域内省际间的不平衡;农业技术效率的下滑制约全国及三大地区农业TFP的增长,而农业技术效率下滑是纯技术效率损失和规模效率下降共同作用的结果。     

The impact of foreign direct investment on productivity: New evidence for developing countries

We provide new empirical evidence on the relationship between inward foreign direct investment (FDI) and total factor productivity (TFP) growth using cross-country data for 51 developing countries over the period 1984–2010. Our results suggest a weak direct effect of FDI on TFP growth but, after accounting for the roles of human capital and institutions as contingencies in the FDI-TFP growth relationship, we find a robust FDI-induced productivity growth response dependent on these ‘absorptive capacities’. However, the relevance of the human capital contingency effect diminishes when the effect of institutions is also considered, which suggests that improving institutions is relatively more important than human capital development for developing countries to realise productivity gains from FDI.     

How R&;D investments influence TFP growth: Evidence from China’s large and medium-sized industrial enterprises

This paper investigates the potential channels through which R&D may influence TFP growth using industry-level panel data of China’s large and medium-sized industrial enterprises over the period of 2000–2007. Comparing with existing literature, we provide a closer look of the relationship between R&D and TFP growth by decomposing TFP growth into efficiency change and technical change components using Malmquist productivity index and distinguishing between upstream R&D spillovers and downstream R&D spillovers. We find TFP grow slightly during 2000–2007, and R&D investment indeed serves as an engine of productivity growth just as endogenous growth theories argued, which is largely because R&D accelerates technical progress even it also results in enlarging technical inefficiency. However, we find a robust negative effect of downstream R&D spillovers on TFP growth, the effects of upstream is positive but not statistically significant. In addition, we do not find the positive effects of human capital on TFP as endogenous growth theories indicated, but find human capital severs as “assimilation device” for R&D spillovers both in promoting TFP growth and increasing technical efficiency even the effects on technical progress is adverse.     

要素市场扭曲、资源错置与生产率

要素市场政策扭曲会降低全要素生产率。本文在一个随机动态一般均衡模型框架下,定量考察我国偏向国有企业政策的效率损失。理论模型引入了垄断竞争的中间产品生产企业与内生化的进入退出选择,用不同的全要素生产率增长随机过程,刻画了要素市场面临政策扭曲的国有与私有企业。为了全面反映产业特征,本文用制造业企业微观数据,来校准企业全要素生产率随机增长。通过校准,定量模型表明,源于政策扭曲的资源错置,导致了非常高昂的效率损失。     

UNDERSTANDING THE WORLD WOOL MARKET: TRADE,PRODUCTIVITY AND GROWERS’ INCOMES*

Applying recent estimates of total factor productivity (TFP) growth on Australian sheep farms, we analyse the long‐run effects of TFP growth on the world wool market using a detailed model of the world wool market that treats raw wool, wool textiles and wool garments as heterogeneous commodities. The model divides the world wool market into nine regions and eight major industrial sectors capturing the extreme nature of the multistage production system through which wool passes. We find that regional sheep producer's welfare responds by between ‐0.9 per cent and 0.7 per cent assuming conservative TFP growth over the period 1995/96–2003/04. Sensitivity analysis shows the welfare effects to be robust with respect to all model parameters, but sensitive to the size of the TFP growth and the degree of TFP spill‐over. Our realistic representation of the multistage nature of the wool production system shows that wool inputs steadily decline in importance in moving from early‐ to late‐stage processing. This production structure indicates that the productivity of sheep farmers has little effect on the prices of and demand for wool garments. In contrast, trade in wool inputs is very responsive to the productivity of sheep farmers.     

Determinants of TFP growth: A close look at industries driving the EU–US TFP gap

This paper explores the determinants of the EU–US TFP growth gap using EU KLEMS. As found in previous analyses, TFP growth appears to be driven by catching-up phenomena associated with the gradual adoption of new technologies. TFP growth is also significantly driven by developments at the “technological frontier”, especially since the mid-1990s. Industries with higher R&D expenditures and higher adoption rates for ICT-intensive technologies appear to exhibit higher TFP growth rates, whilst human capital has mostly a significant effect across countries. Regarding determinants in industries relevant for the different TFP performance of the EU versus the US, ICT-producing industries appear to benefit from R&D in terms of stronger spillovers from TFP gains at the frontier, network utilities are strongly affected by product market regulations, whilst the retail and wholesale trade industry is significantly influenced by consumption dynamics which permit a better exploitation of scale economies.     

Can The World Trading System Accommodate More East Asian Style Exporters?

A CGE model of world trade is used to examine whether many developing countries can simultaneously expand manufactures exports along East Asian lines without suffering serious terms of trade decline and consequent welfare loss. Experiments are performed in which manufactures exports are expanded for each developing region in turn and for all regions simultaneously. When driven by productivity gains in manufactures exports production, welfare gains are found to be significant and stable, even enhanced by parallel advances in other developing regions: i.e. export growth is mutually reinforcing as a result of extensive South-South manufactures flow, a pattern that is intensifying. [F 17]     

人力资本与中国区域农业全要素生产率增长——基于DEA视角的实证分析

文章在考虑人力资本要素和技术非效率的前提下,使用非参数的DEA曼奎斯特生产率指数方法,对1988-2006年中国区域农业全要素生产率增长进行估计和测算,通过将其分解为技术进步、纯技术效率变化和规模效率变化三部分,来寻找农业TFP增长的源泉.实证表明,1988-2006年中国农业TFP增长较为显著,大致可以分为四个阶段,其对农业增长的贡献基本上是顺周期的,各个省区的TFP增长差异性则较为明显.从其内部构成来看,TFP增长主要由技术进步贡献,技术效率改善的作用则很有限.另外,是否考虑人力资本要素对农业增长的作用,会对TFP的估计产生较大影响.文章最终认为,应努力通过制度创新来消除农业技术扩散的各种制度性障碍,实现农业技术进步和技术效率增进共同推动农业TFP增长.     

Productivity Trends in Australian and New Zealand Manufacturing

The purpose of this article is to study relative trends in total factor productivity (TFP) between the Australian and New Zealand manufacturing sectors from 1986 to 1996. Since 1984 both economies have undergone major structural changes with varying degrees of speed and intensity. We use the Malmquist index to measure TFP growth and decompose it into an efficiency change and a technical change component. This decomposition provides extra insight on assessing relative productivity trends during a period of economic reform. The results indicate the Australian manufacturing sector exhibits better rates of individual factor productivity performance while multifactor productivity is estimated to be higher in New Zealand manufacturing. TFP growth in New Zealand is driven by technical rather than efficiency change. In fact, the New Zealand manufacturing average rate of efficiency change is estimated to be negative over the sample period.