Relative demand for highly skilled workers and use of different ICT technologies

This study investigates the relationship between several indicators of ICT usage and digitalization and the relative demand for highly skilled workers. The data are based on two-digit industry-level information on seven European countries for the period 2001–2010. For manufacturing industries, static fixed-effects models show that the share of employees with internet broadband access, the diffusion of mobile internet access and the use of enterprise resource planning (ERP) systems and automatic data exchange combined with electronic invoicing are all significantly and positively related to skill intensity in the industries observed. For service industries, only mobile internet usage intensity is significant. Specifically for manufacturing, a 10-point increase in the percentage of firms using ERP systems is associated with an increase in the share of highly skilled workers by 0.4 percentage points. These estimates indicate that the increase in ERP system usage during the period studied accounted for 30% of the increase in the share of workers with a tertiary degree across manufacturing industries and countries. The results are robust with respect to the estimation method and the potential endogeneity of ICT.     

Structural reform of the electricity industry and economic growth

Using 782 panel data from 34 OECD countries from 1991 to 2013, this study aims to evaluate how structural reform affects GDP growth rate. We use the Barro-type GDP growth rate regression model and apply both fixed and random effect models. Eight structural reform variables are selected: (i) third party access, (ii) wholesale market dummy, (iii) choice of supplier, (iv) private ownership, (v) generation-others separation, (vi) transmission-others separation, (vii) distribution-others separation and (viii) overall vertical separation. Major finding results are as follows: (i) third party access can positively contribute to GDP growth rate, (ii) wholesale market and overall vertical separation might have a small negative effect, and (iii) other variables have no significant effect.     

Privatization and economic growth in Australia: the shorthand of a long process

The impact of privatization on economic growth has been little investigated relative to disaggregated approaches. A growth accounting framework is used here to investigate the impact of privatization on growth for the Australian economy. The contribution of public capital to the private sector and whether the growth process is endogenous or Solow is evaluated. Separate measures of public and private capital are computed in order to estimate their impacts with labour on Australian gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the period 1960 to 2003. A simple growth rates version is found preferred by stationarity and other tests. Labour growth appears to strongly positively influence the growth of GDP. In contrast, public capital growth has no statistically significant effect on GDP growth, or on private capital productivity. The data are consistent with the hypothesis that the coefficients of the growth equation are the same before and during privatization.     

Export Growth and Domestic Performance

A VAR approach is used to analyze the effects of export growth on the evolution of GDP, domestic employment, and investment in 39 economies. The results strongly support the export-led growth hypothesis. Export growth affects GDP growth positively in 30 countries. In six countries, all of them inward-looking, the effects are negative. For these countries, and for these countries alone, export growth has a negative effect on the evolution of both domestic employment and investment. This also suggests the importance of the indirect effects of exports on GDP growth.     

The energy-GDP nexus: Evidence from a panel of Pacific Island countries

The Pacific Island countries are small island economies that are increasingly dependent on energy for growth and development, yet highly susceptible to climate change. Thus, the relationship between energy consumption and GDP is crucial for realizing their future development and growth objectives. This article tests for Granger causality and provides long-run structural estimates for the relationship between energy consumption, GDP and urbanization for a panel of Pacific Island countries. For the panel as a whole in the long-run there is bidirectional Granger causality between energy consumption and GDP and these variables exert a positive impact on each other. A 1% increase in energy consumption increases GDP by 0.11%, while a 1% increase in GDP increases energy consumption by 0.23%. The findings suggest that for the panel as a whole these countries should increase investment in energy infrastructure and regulatory reform of energy infrastructure to improve delivery efficiency, continue to promote alternative energy sources and put in place energy conservation policies to reduce unnecessary wastage. These strategies seek to realize the dual objectives of reducing the adverse effects of energy use on the environment, while avoiding the negative effect on economic growth of reducing energy consumption.     

Public overspending in higher education

We study the trade-off between governmental investments in pretertiary and tertiary education from an efficiency point of view. We develop a model comprising agents with different incomes and abilities, public and private schools, and public universities that select applicants based on an admission exam. Reallocating governmental resources from tertiary to pretertiary education may positively affect aggregate production and human capital if some conditions are satisfied. For instance, in an economy with a high proportion of credit-constrained students, a reallocation of expenditure toward public schools benefits many students, compensating for the negative effect of a decrease in public university investments. We also quantitatively investigate the optimal allocation of public investment between pretertiary and tertiary education, and we find that a 10% increase in productivity of public investments in pretertiary education could increase the optimal GDP between 2.1% and 3%.     

资源富集地区产业结构与就业关系研究:以内蒙古为例

资源富集地区就业弹性低于全国。向量误差修正模型显示,内蒙古GDP增长和固定资产投资增加都带动了就业,但带动作用越来越弱。与内蒙古整体状况相似,第二产业投资和GDP增长加速度每提高1%,就业加速度就分别提高、降低0.265%和0.464%。第一产业产出的就业弹性和投资弹性分别为0.253和-0.044。第三产业产出的就业弹性和投资弹性分别为0.799和-0.434。     

Knowledge externalities,innovation and growth in European countries: the role of institutions

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the linkages between institutions and economic growth in the European context and highlights innovation as the intermediate variable that drives this interplay. Building on the literature in the evolutionary approach to the economics of innovation and in the economic growth theory with a political economic perspective, we assume that knowledge externalities can fully take place where institutions guarantee a level playing field in the access to knowledge. We estimate the effects of a set of relevant institutional variables on the growth rate of technological knowledge and per capita GDP for a sample of European countries. The empirical analysis confirms that institutions that tend to equalise opportunities to innovate significantly amplify the impact of an exogenous increase in the knowledge base on the growth rate of per capita GDP.     

The myth of China’s monetization

This article develops a simple model of M2/GDP based on the money demand function of Milton Friedman. This model proves that M2/GDP is positively related to the expected wealth and negatively related to the opportunity costs of holding money. China’s extremely high monetization ratio as measured by M2/GDP is the result of a decades-long rapid economic growth and a depressed financial system. Fast economic growth leads to high expected wealth. A depressed financial system leads to low opportunity costs of holding money. The combination of those two factors increases money demand and leads to very high M2/GDP. The model is verified indirectly by testing two implied testable hypothesizes. The study of this article raises questions on the accuracy of M2/GDP as a measure of monetization.     

Demographic change and economic growth: Theory and evidence from China

The paper tests the impact of demographic change on China's economic growth by using 1983–2008 provincial panel data. The deducted result of the theoretical model shows that the share of working-age population is positively correlated with economic growth, whereas birth rate has an adverse impact. Empirical results substantiate the finding. Due to the decrease of birth rate and the increase of the share of the working-age population, China's average annual per capita GDP growth rate increased 1.19 and 0.73 percentage points during the sample period. The contribution of these two demographic changes contributed to 19.5% of the economic growth together.     

The long-run impact of ICT

This paper examines the growth impact of digital capital in the US and the EU-15 countries from a long-run perspective. It estimates the elasticity of output with respect to Information and Communication Technology (ICT) within a production function framework, by means of a panel cointegration analysis. ICT capital is found to significantly spur GDP growth over time, and above its income share. This sharply contrasts with existing aggregate evidence, and with the view that the growth impact of this factor is confined to the contribution given to the productivity resurgence of the 1990s.     

Country-level Determinants of Intra-industry Trade （liT） between China and Sri Lanka

This study is based on country level determinants of liT between China and Sri Lanka. Multiple regression analysis was used to analyze the data in this study. Determinants of IIT from Sri Lanka to China do not depend upon economic growth rate, per capita income and size of GDP. However, variables like index of openness, size of the economy, per capita income, size of GDP, factor endowment, foreign direct investments have positive impact on IIT from Sri Lanka to China. Economic growth rate, index of openness, size of the economy, factor endowment, foreign direct investments were found to be positively related with intensity of IIT from China to Sri Lanka.     

The demand for casino gaming

In this study an econometric model is developed to examine the determinants of the demand for casino gaming, specifically the demand for slot machine wagering at riverboats and racinos. In addition to examining the effects of traditional demand variables, the effect on wagering of variables such as location of a wagering facility and of government restrictions, is examined. A unique measure of accessibility of market area customers to a facility and to competing facilities was developed. The demand for wagering at a facility was found to increase as access by customers in its market area increases and to decrease as access by its customers to competing riverboats, racinos or Indian casinos increases. Government restrictions were found to have an adverse effect on wagering at a riverboat. On the other hand, wagering at a riverboat was found to increase when such restrictions were imposed on competing riverboats. The presence of total loss limits and restrictions on boarding times at a riverboat were found to have reduced wagering by 36% and 35%, respectively. With respect to traditional demand variables, slot machine wagering demand was found to be price elastic at the beginning of the sample period declining to slightly below unit elasticity by the end of the period. Table games offered at a gaming facility were found to be substitutes for slot machines. Demand was found to be negatively related to per capita income at lower income levels and positively related at higher income levels. The proportion of income wagered was found to be greater at upper and lower income levels relative to middle income levels. Demand was found to be positively related to days of operation and number of slot machines.     

The determinants of banking efficiency in Hong Kong 2004-2014

The cost efficiency of the Hong Kong Banking sector over the period 2004–2014 is estimated by data envelopment window analysis. A second stage regression analysis finds that bank size and GDP growth are positively associated with efficiency, whereas revenue diversification and inflation are associated with lower efficiency. Stock exchange listing status is associated with lower efficiency but no clear relationship between measures of market structure and efficiency is found.     

政府公共投资的经济效应分析

关于政府公共投资的经济效应,学术界有颇多争论,虽然一系列研究成果发现公共资本与经济增长正相关,但也有一些学者通过研究得出了截然相反的结论。文章运用经济增长理论分析政府公共投资的经济效应,并以中国相关数据为样本进行实证检验,实证检验得出结果:公共投资与产出正相关。在此基础上,文章根据我国目前所处的经济发展阶段,运用计量经济模型,估计出我国当前政府公共投资的最优规模,即公共投资占GDP的合理比重为4.5%,公共投资占财政总支出的合理比重为22%左右。     

Aid,policies and growth: a nonlinear reassessment

ABSTRACT

The association between foreign aid and growth has been controversial for decades and the evidence is quite mixed with results sensitive to data samples and modelling approaches. We reassess the relationship between aid, policy and growth implementing a novel semiparametric estimation method that allows for nonlinearities and controls for endogeneity. The results show that the aid-policy-growth relationship is complex. Aid inflows do not seem growth-enhancing, except at very high levels (above 7% of Aid/GDP), whereas the effect may arrive with a lag at lower levels. Policy improvements are positively correlated with growth at high policy levels (above the median value) but better policies do not increase aid effectiveness.     

资源型城市经济增长——资源的“诅咒”还是距离的“暴政”

从资源依赖视角来看,在非资源型城市资源依赖与人均GDP增长率正相关;在资源型城市资源依赖与人均GDP的增长率负相关。从各城市的地理位置来看,中部地区城市和西部地区城市资源依赖与人均GDP的增长率之间呈现倒U型关系。但是,东部地区城市资源依赖与人均GDP的增长率之间呈现J型关系,"资源诅咒"在东部地区城市中并没有出现。     

Structural change and foreign direct investment: globalization and regional economic integration

This paper investigates flows of inward and outward foreign direct investment (FDI) and FDI-to-GDP ratios in a sample of 62 countries over a 30 year time span. Using several endogenous structural break procedures (allowing for one and two break points), we find that: (1) the great majority of the series have structural breaks in the last 15 years, (2) post-break FDI and FDI/GDP ratios are substantially higher than the pre-break values, and (3) most breaks seem to be related to globalization, regional economic integration, economic growth, or political instability. Static and dynamic panel-data analyses accounting for and/or addressing endogeneity, simultaneity, nonstationarity, heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence show that FDI is negatively related to exchange rate volatility and GDP per capita, but positively related to some regional integration agreements, trade openness, GDP, and GDP growth. Most notably, the European Union is the only regional economic integration unit found to consistently have significant and positive effects on FDI.     

An instrumental variables approach to estimating tax revenue elasticities: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

This paper exploits the significant response of real GDP growth of Sub-Saharan African countries to exogenous international commodity price and rainfall shocks to construct instrumental variables estimates of the tax revenue elasticity IV estimates yield that a 1% increase in GDP increases tax revenues by up to 2.5%.     

Inequality and economic growth: the role of initial income

We estimate a panel model where the relationship between inequality and GDP per capita growth depends on countries’ initial incomes. Estimates of the model show that the relationship between inequality and GDP per capita growth is significantly decreasing in countries’ initial incomes. Results from instrumental variables regressions show that in Low Income Countries transitional growth is boosted by greater income inequality. In High Income Countries inequality has a significant negative effect on transitional growth. For the median country in the world, that in the year 2015 had a PPP GDP per capita of around 10000USD, IV estimates predict that a 1 percentage point increase in the Gini coefficient decreases GDP per capita growth over a 5-year period by over 1 percentage point; the long-run effect on the level of GDP per capita is around ??5%.