Direct effects of money on aggregate demand: another look at the evidence

Now that a number of central banks are faced with short-term nominal interest rates close to or at the zero lower bound, there is a renewed interest in the long-running debate about whether or not changes in the stock of money have direct effects. In particular, do changes in money have additional effects on aggregate demand outside of those induced by changes in short-term nominal interest rates? This article revisits and reinterprets the empirical evidence based on single equation regressions which is quite mixed, with some results supporting and other results denying the existence of direct effects. We use a structural model with no direct effects of money to show that the finding of positive and statistically significant coefficients on real money growth can be misleading. The model generates data that, when used to estimate analogues of the empirical regressions, produce positive and statistically significant coefficients on real money growth, similar to those often found when using actual data. The problem is that single equation regressions leave out a set of variables, which in turn, give rise to an omitted variables bias in the estimated coefficients on real money growth. Hence, they are an unreliable guide to calibrate monetary policies, in general, including at the zero lower bound.     

Variation in price dependency measures on the london metal exchange

Eight tests of dependency are conducted on London Metal Exchange price date for separate years between 1972 and 1982. The results from the eight tests are combined to produce an overall ranking of the years by the extent of dependency exhibited. Similar patterns are exhibited across all the contracts tested. This is attributed to a common factor affecting all markets. The use of commodities as an inflation shelter by nontrade investors is suggested as a possible explanation.     

The stock market and investment: another look at the micro-foundations of q theory

This paper introduces a novel distinction between real q andfinancial q. The paper examines three versions of financialq developed by Brainard and Tobin, Minsky and Hayashi, respectively.These theories differ regarding the nature of stock market pricedetermination and their use of marginal productivity theory.It is shown that non-profit maximising behaviour by managersdoes not invalidate q theory. It is also shown that if managersand shareholders have different profit expectations, this leadsto an equilibrium value of q that differs from unity. Lastly,the implicit claims in q theory regarding the efficient roleof stock markets as regulators of capital accumulation are shownto depend on assumptions about stockholder behaviour.     

Appraising and paying for performance: another look at an age-old problem

The basic notion of improving performance through management and appraisal is difficult to successfully implement in practice. These authors discuss some of the problems presented by tying pay to performance appraisals, offer suggestions for improving performance appraisals and outline some other approaches for employers to consider in setting goals and determining compensation.     

The impact of international migration on real wages: another look

"This paper examines the issue of how emigration alters real wages in the source country. The analysis is carried out first using the two-class framework developed by Rivera-Batiz (1984) and then by means of a simple model of scale economies and imperfect competition. Our results indicate that, within these contexts, real wages are likely to decline in response to emigration if (1) the migrants possess a large fraction of physical or human capital that they take with them when migration occurs, or (2) emigration reduces the scale of operation of domestic firms. Our conclusions are compared to those of Quibria (1989)."     

Intra-good trade in Germany: a first look at the evidence

This article contributes to the literature by using newly released comprehensive transaction-level data on all exports and imports to document facts about the amount of intra-good trade – the simultaneous export and import of identical goods by one firm – in Germany. Combined data for trade transactions and for characteristics of a representative large sample of trading firms are then used to report differences between firms that export and import different goods only (inter-good traders) and firms that engage in the simultaneous export and import of identical goods (intra-good traders). We find that the share of intra-good trade in total trade was some 17% in Germany in 2012. Intra-good trade matters. This share differs widely between broadly defined groups of goods and between industries. Controlling for detailed industry affiliation, intra-good traders differ significantly from inter-good traders – they are larger, more human capital intensive, more productive, have a higher R&D intensity and are more profitable. The data, however, are not rich enough to reveal the direction of causality between intra-good trade and firm performance and to investigate empirically the reasons why some firms engage in intra-good trade.     

The efficiency of the forward exchange market: Some evidence for the pound sterling-US dollar exchange rate using residuals from the LUS class

In this note we test the efficiency of the forward market for foreign exchange for the UK pound-US dollar exchange rate, using residuals from the LUS class. We show that previous rejections of efficiency in the forward market have not been due to the use of residuals from the OLS class.     

Yet another look at temporal aggregation in diffusion models of first-time purchase

This paper gives yet another look at the impact of temporal aggregation on the parameter estimates for the familiar Bass diffusion model. It is shown that aggregation leads to larger values of the innovation parameter p and that it is leads to smaller values of the imitation parameter q, at least in theory. The last finding is in contrast with the results in Technological Forecasting and Social Change [51 (1996) 265]. We use simulation experiments to substantiate our results.     

Looking at the determinants of efficiency in banking: evidence from Italian mutual-cooperatives

Italy has experienced a restructuring and consolidation process in the banking industry since the 1990s that is expected to foster efficiency and competition. Despite the reforms, a peculiarity of the industry is the persistence of small mutual-cooperative banks (Banche di Credito Cooperativo, BCCs) active in narrow markets. The scope of this paper is to analyze the determinants of BCCs’ efficiency in the 2006–2011 period. In the first step of the study, a stochastic cost frontier is used to yield bank efficiency. Then the cost efficiency becomes the dependent variable of fixed and random effect models. The reference market of BCCs is the province (NUTS3). We find that BCC cost efficiency is positively affected by market concentration and demand density and inversely related to branching. Importantly, these results are robust to any sample restriction anchored to the distribution of efficiency. While the evidence regarding the credit quality is inconclusive for all BCCs, the sensitivity analysis shows that the risk in local markets is a source of BCC cost inefficiency.     

A look at ‘overshooting’ in a two-tier float exchange rate system

This note examines the celebrated ‘overshooting’ hypothesis in the context of a two-tier float exchange rate regime. It is shown that monetary expansion leads to depreciation of both spot exchange rates and there is a presumption in favor of financial exchange rate ‘overshooting’.     

The effects of privatization on productive efficiency: evidence from the Baltic republics

By using new and unusual data sets for large samples of firms in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania we find that, since privatization, diverse patterns of enterprise ownership have emerged and ownership configurations are quite dynamic.   To test competing theories on the productivity effects of alternative ownership structures, identical cross sectional production functions specifications are estimated for each country for varying years during 1993 1996. While the effects of private ownership upon productivity are found to vary considerably over time and across countries, productivity effects are always found to be either zero or positive, thus providing partial support for the hypothesis that state ownership is less efficient than private ownership.   Findings are mixed concerning hypotheses on the effects of particular ownership structures. Often (e.g. for Lithuania) estimates indicate that all forms of private ownership have zero productivity effects. However, some estimates for Estonia provide support for the mainstream hypothesis that outside (and especially foreign) ownership is preferred to insider ownership. But in other estimates (again for Estonia) majority ownership by employees is found to deliver better business performance than majority ownership by managers (thus refuting the hypothesis that the preferred form of insider ownership is ownership by managers).     

The effects of exchange rate volatility on exports: evidence from Armenia

The article examines how the volatility of exchange rate affected Armenia’s export to its main trading partner, Russia, in the period from January 2007 to February 2016. Along with real foreign income and competitiveness, the exchange rate volatility is considered as a determinant of real export. The estimation results indicate that the exchange rate volatility has negative significant effects on real export both in the long run and in the short run.     

The spot and forward exchange rates: some empirical evidence of Singapore

This paper studies the foreign exchange market of Singapore. It examines the hypotheses that the spot exchange rate follows a random walk and that the exoected value of the future spot rate is the current forward rate. Using various powerful tests that have been developed recently in the economietric literature, we reject the two hypotheses convincingly.     

Testing exchange rate efficiency: the case of euro–dollar

This paper tests the semi‐strong efficiency of the euro–dollar currency market by introducing a simple heuristic test, based on the ‘general‐to‐specific’ methodology and meant to include as two specific sub‐cases the ‘efficient market hypothesis’ (EMH) in the currency market as well as alternative theories implying a time dependent process of propagation of information. According to the results of our nested test, the ‘efficient market hypothesis’ in the euro–dollar currency market is rejected.     

Behavioural equilibrium exchange rate and total misalignment: evidence from the euro exchange rate

In the present paper we attempt to investigate whether the nominal exchange rate of the euro against the currencies of the four major trading partners of the eurozone, namely China, Japan, the UK and the USA, converges or not to its equilibrium level. Applying recent unit root and system cointegration techniques in the presence of structural shifts in the data, our results indicate that there exist an equilibrium relationship between each of the euro/yuan, euro/yen, euro/UK pound and euro/US dollar nominal exchange rates and the fundamentals defined by the monetary model. Following these results, our modified Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate model suggests that at the end of the estimated period, the euro/Chinese yuan and the euro/UK pound nominal exchange rates follow an equilibrium process. Our empirical results also imply that the single European currency is considered as overvalued against the US dollar, while it is considered as undervalued against the Japanese currency.     

Growth-business cycle interaction: A look at the OECD

This paper examines the relationship between long-run growth and business cycles in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The model in the paper specifically assumes that the business cycle influences growth through total factor productivity. Using unconditional volatility to measure the business cycle, this paper finds a negative relationship between the business cycle and long-run growth even after controlling for endogeneity. The result is robust to the inclusion of either period or country dummy variables, but not both. Therefore, the result is somewhat fragile. Finally, the assumption of constant returns to scale is consistent with the data.     

Inter-market efficiency and the foreign exchange market

This paper extends previous tests of weak-form efficiency in foreign exchange markets by (a) testing the efficiency of trades involving a combination of forward markets, and by (b) using data with a daily frequency. We show the Canada-U.S. forward exchange market to be weak-form efficient during the period 1972 to 1975 inclusive.     

Market efficiency and the Euro: the case of the Athens stock exchange

The behaviour of an emerging market, the Athens Stock Exchange, after the introduction of the euro is investigated. The latter would make its returns easier to compare; reduce uncertainty; eliminate the exchange rate risk and as a result we expect the new currency to strengthen the argument, in favour of the EMH. The General ASE Composite Index and the FTSE/ASE 20, which consists of “high capitalisation” companies, are used. Five statistical tests are employed to test the residuals of the random walk model: the BDS, McLeod-Li, Engle LM, Tsay and Bicovariance test. Bootstrap and asymptotic values of these tests are estimated. Alternative models from the GARCH family (GARCH, EGARCH and TGARCH) are also presented in order to investigate the behaviour of the series. Lastly, linear, asymmetric and non-linear error correction models are estimated and compared. The preferred model (TGARCH) suggests that leverage effects are present and the news impact curve is asymmetric.     

Capital-enhanced equilibrium exchange rate: evidence from India

This article examines the validity of the capital-enhanced equilibrium exchange rate (CHEER) approach using quarterly data ranging from 1993Q1 to 2016Q2. Using unit root break test and structural break cointegration technique, our overall results indicated that the CHEER is invalidated once a structural break is accounted for in the cointegration relationship. The rejection of the validity could be attributed to the asymmetry in the capital flows and exchange rates being not fully flexible.