保险产业市场结构和市场绩效的关系研究

对于市场结构和市场绩效的关系问题,理论界存在两个较为权威的假说,即市场力量假说和效率结构假说。笔者通过实证分析检验这两个假说在我国保险市场中的适用性,认为在我国保险市场存在传统的市场结构—市场行为—市场绩效假说,保险市场可以通过增加有效率企业的数量,引入竞争机制,最终通过市场自然选择的过程,形成少数新的规模大并能够具有市场力量的保险公司,从而提高保险业的绩效水平。     

Asymmetry in forward exchange rate bias: A puzzling result

In this paper we document that the hypothesis that the forward exchange rate discount is an unbiased predictor of future currency depreciation holds in periods when the forward US dollar is quoted at a premium against the Japanese yen and the Deutschmark, but fails when it is quoted at a discount for the post-Bretton Woods floating exchange rate era. Moreover, the observed asymmetry is statistically significant. This puzzling result remains to be explained.     

竞争促进、市场扩张与消费者福利增进——基于我国移动语音通信市场的面板数据

利用2002—2008年我国31个省(自治区、直辖市)电信市场的面板数据,采用对数差分两阶段最小二乘法,估计了我国移动语音通信市场的Marshall需求函数,进而测算了我国移动语音通信市场的消费者福利变化。结果表明:2002—2008年期间我国移动语音通信市场的消费者福利经历了一个持续增加的过程,但消费者福利增加呈明显的减缓趋势;消费者福利的持续增进主要是竞争导致的市场不断扩张和价格持续下降的结果,而价格下降速度变慢导致消费者福利增加趋缓;与发达国家相比,我国移动语音通信服务的价格仍然明显偏高,因此可进一步降低价格来增加消费者福利。     

我国煤炭产业过度竞争原因及对策

目前我国煤炭产业低级低效、高度分散的竞争型市场结构,即理论上称的“原子型”结构,是造成我国煤炭产业过度竞争的原因。煤炭过度竞争使我国煤炭资源浪费、资源价格扭曲、部分国有企业亏损严重和煤炭行业效益持续低下,解决我国煤炭过度竞争必须通过提高产业进入门槛,降低产业退出门槛,提高煤炭产业的集中度,实施大型煤炭企业集团战略并对此给予必要的政策扶持。     

Competition to international satellite communications services

Rapid construction of transoceanic fiber optic cables and the successful establishment of private satellite companies with inter-regional or global coverage have fundamentally altered the environment in which international telecommunications capacity is provided. This article presents industry data and discusses market developments which document substantial competition that has emerged in international facilities-based telecommunications. Intelsat, historically the largest provider of international telecommunications capacity, has seen its market position decline rapidly for all services and all major geographic market areas worldwide.     

中国煤炭产业市场集中度的实证研究

通过对1979-2008年中国煤炭行业市场集中度的测算,得出2008年以后市场结构出现类似寡头竞争的特征。根据我国煤炭行业的特殊性,提出决定产业绩效的理论模型,包含产业集中度、供需基本面、安全研发投入等关键要素。实证结果表明:产业利润率与市场集中度显著正相关;公司利润率与市场份额正相关,而同研发投入负相关。运用CDW方法分析煤炭产业利润率与集中度的正向关系,结论是效率因素较市场势力更具解释力。     

Do government owned banks trade market power for slack?

The ‘Quiet Life Hypothesis (QLH)’ posits that banks with market power have less incentives to maximize revenues and minimize cost. Especially government owned banks with a public mandate precluding profit maximization might succumb to a quiet life. We use a unified approach that simultaneously measures market power and efficiency to test the quiet life hypothesis of German savings banks. We find that average local market power declined between 1996 and 2006. Cost and profit efficiency remained constant. Nonparametric correlations are consistent with a quiet life regarding cost efficiency but not regarding profit efficiency. The quiet life on the cost side is negatively correlated with bank size, quality of loan portfolio and local per capita income. The last result indicates that the quiet cost life is therefore potentially due to benevolent excess consumption of local input factors by public savings banks.     

The evolution of stock market efficiency in the US: a non-Bayesian time-varying model approach

A non-Bayesian time-varying model is developed by introducing the concept of the degree of market efficiency that varies over time. This model may be seen as a reflection of the idea that continuous technological progress alters the trading environment over time. With new methodologies and a new measure of the degree of market efficiency, we examine whether the US stock market evolves over time. In particular, a time-varying autoregressive (TV-AR) model is employed. Our main findings are: (i) the US stock market has evolved over time and the degree of market efficiency has cyclical fluctuations with a considerably long periodicity, from 30 to 40 years; and (ii) the US stock market has been efficient with the exception of four times in our sample period: during the long recession of 1873–1879; the recession of 1902–1904; the New Deal era; and the recession of 1957–1958 and soon after it. It is then shown that our results are partly consistent with the view of behavioural finance.     

中国银行业市场结构与绩效的实证分析

中国银行业市场结构与绩效关系的实证研究表明,市场份额越大、市场集中度越高,银行业整体绩效越低;国有股比例和国内生产总值与我国银行业的绩效之间不存在显著的关系。银行业绩效的提升有赖于市场份额、市场集中度、杠杆比率和营业费用率等影响因素的进一步优化。     

分形及其在证券市场上的应用

比较了有效市场假设与分形市场假设,也即比较了证券市场的线性与非线性的观点,同时还对沪深股指通过比较周收益率与日收益率的分布发现指数的分形特征。     

Testing for weak-form efficiency of crude palm oil spot and future markets: new evidence from a GARCH unit root test with multiple structural breaks

There is a sizeable literature that tests for weak-form efficiency in commodity and energy spot and future prices. While many studies now allow for multiple structural breaks to address the criticism that conventional unit root tests have low power to reject the unit root null in the presence of structural change, the extant literature overlooks the fact that conventional unit root tests are biased in the presence of conditional heteroscedasticity. We apply a recently developed generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) unit root test with multiple structural breaks to crude palm oil spot and future prices and find much more evidence against weak-form efficiency than that found using tests that fail to allow for conditional heteroscedasticity. Our results point to the importance of allowing for heteroscedasticity when testing for efficiency in commodity and energy spot and future prices.     

创新对我国装备制造业市场势力影响的动态研究

市场势力是竞争力的一种表现形式,拥有较高的市场势力可以扭转市场竞争弱势地位,促进产业持续发展。我国装备制造业的市场势力程度可采用市场集中度指标来测算。选取中国产业分析平台提供的4位数产业作为研究样本的测算结果表明,我国装备制造业市场势力总体处于低集中水平,7个子行业中通信设备、计算机及其他电子设备制造业和仪器仪表及文化、办公用机械制造业的市场集中度最高,行业内大企业的规模优势相对明显。通过向量自回归模型分析了创新活动对我国装备制造业市场势力的影响。结果表明,在短时期内,创新对装备制造业的影响效果不明显,在中长时期,创新对装备制造业市场势力是起促进作用的。     

产品市场竞争下两职合一对公司绩效的影响

运用2006—2013年中国A股上市公司的数据,考察了产品市场竞争下董事长与总经理两职合一对公司绩效的影响及其作用机理。结果表明:随着产品市场竞争的加剧,两职合一对公司绩效有显著的正向影响;产品市场竞争通过约束管理层的行为减少委托代理问题的发生,且两职合一的信息优势和沟通效率促进了公司业绩的提升。因此,在复杂多变的外部环境中董事长与总经理两职合一更有利于公司经营。     

竞争战略、资本结构与企业业绩

文章认为,对于竞争性行业和垄断性行业的资本结构与企业业绩的相关性,可以尝试从不同的理论出发点来解释,对于竞争性行业而言,其保守的财务政策(低负债率)可能是基于行业竞争程度、资本市场条件以及企业竞争战略的理性商业选择,不一定是以往学者从代理问题出发得出的股权融资偏好。我国监管机构基于抑制股权融资偏好行为而制定的一系列股权融资约束似乎并未考虑到行业竞争程度的不同,这种资本市场的配置低效率使得我国上市公司面临着过度监管和监管不足并存的现象。     

市场过程内生的垄断:市场权势和自然垄断

作为内生的垄断现象,市场权势实际上是争胜竞争过程的结果,并非垄断的市场结构所决定。如果将竞争理解为一个动态过程,市场权势具有竞争性和暂时性。自然垄断现象也是市场过程演化过程中的自然现象,无论源于规模经济还是范围经济,都表明自然垄断具有动态效率特征。除非政府人为阻碍争胜竞争过程的展开,通常市场过程内生力量能够有效制约非政府垄断现象。