地方政府支出有偏性、企业融资约束与经济结构失衡

文章基于地方政府视角下困扰当前中国经济增长的结构性现实问题,根据1993—2012年的中国省际年度数据,借鉴 Bernanke 等(1999)和 Fernández-Villaverde(2010)的分析思路,运用动态随机一般均衡模型,实证研究了经济结构失衡①与由地方政府支出有偏性引起的政府投资增加之间的内在逻辑关系。研究发现：(1)伴随着经济增长,东、中、西部的社会投资占 GDP 的比重不断地提高,而居民消费和劳动收入占 GDP 的比重则呈下降趋势,这些经济结构失衡的表现与由地方政府支出有偏性引起的政府投资增加是共存的。(2)通过对大企业模型、中小企业模型和粘性价格模型进行的模拟比较分析发现,地方政府发展经济的目的促使其支出行为表现为有偏性,引发了政府投资较大幅度的增加;基于融资约束,中小企业的投资增幅不大,而大企业投资高涨,引致了地方经济结构失衡的加剧,而在这传导机制中政府投资的正外部性、企业融资约束和金融摩擦担当重要角色。     

中国公司债券的发展现状和对策研究

公司债市场作为一种重要的融资渠道,在中国经济发展过程中处于重要的地位.中国公司债市场起步虽然较晚,但发展空间巨大、面临良好的发展机遇.发展中国的公司债券应着重注意以下几方面问题:充分发挥市场机制作用、强化信用评级和信用定价,规范信用评级机制,发展债券基金机构投资者,完善受托管理人制度,不断对公司债券条款设计进行创新.     

The theory of economic price and quantity indicators

Summary. This paper develops the theory of economic price and quantity indicators, being the difference analogue of indexes. The properties of indicators and indexes are compared. Observable bounds for the indicators will be derived, as well as two exactness results for Bennet (1920)-type price and quantity indicators.Received: 3 January 2002, Revised: 2 December 2002, JEL Classification Numbers: C43Previous versions of this paper were presented at the Economic Measurement Group Workshop 2001, School of Economics, University of New South Wales, Sydney, 30 March 2001, and at a seminar at the School of Economics, University of New England, Armidale NSW, 7 September 2001. The authors thank Erwin Diewert for helpful comments on a previous version. The views expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect any policy of Statistics Netherlands.     

公司债券的违约风险度量技术及应用

随着我国资本市场的进一步发展,公司债券已经成为我国资本市场重要的金融工具。因此,公司债券的违约风险已经成为投资者关注的重要因素。本文系统地论述了度量公司债券违约风险的三类主要方法：信用评级法、数理模型法和保险思想法。在此基础上,论述了我国发展债券市场提高公司债券违约风险度量技术的基本思路是重点利用信用评级方法,积极开发数理模型方法,创造条件利用保险思想模型。     

On the measurement and analysis of aggregate economic activity for China: the coincident economic indicators approach

This paper reviews some of China's high-frequency economic indicators and our principal findings on their selection and use. Our aim is to develop a composite index of coincident economic indicators (coincident economic index, CEI) which can be used to obtain timely information on the present state of the China's economy and provide an appropriate measure to analyze China's short-term macroeconomic dynamics. Notably, combining industrial production, retail sales, manufacturing employment, income of financial institutions and passenger traffic volume, they work well as the method for dating business cycles for China. It shows that, over the past two decades, there was one marked recession which occurred in 1988:8 to 1989:12. In addition to this business cycle chronology we also develop a growth cycle chronology based on the deviations from trend of the CE which shows that there have been four cyclical slowdowns since 1986. Whereas GDP growth lacks cyclical movements and appears to be dominated by trend and irregular movements, in contrast to GDP, the CEI works well as a measure of cyclical dynamics and can contribute to the analysis of short-term fluctuations of Chinese economic activity relative to its long-term growth.     

International co-movements of real and financial economic variables

This study presents a first attempt at investigating whether the international co-movements of real economic activity conform to the same international co-movements of financial activity. This study tests the international co-movements of real economic activity, on the one hand, and financial variables such as stock returns, interest rates, inflation rates and risk premiums, on the other hand. We employ a dynamic correlation model on data from OECD countries for the period 1980–2010. Our findings demonstrate that international stock markets co-react in accordance with the underlying international economic forces. We also document three other results. First, the correlation among countries with respect to real economic activity is statistically positive, but the level of this correlation is lower than that of financial variables. Second, there is a significant increase over time in the international correlation level with respect to the financial variables. Finally, the creation of the Euro Monetary Union and the adoption of an inflation targeting policy in many countries have increased the international correlation of all of the financial variables tested. The article concludes with two implications from these findings: (1) predictions in the context of international portfolio diversification, and (2) policy making at the fiscal and monetary levels.     

中国财政支出结构与经济增长的Granger因果关系分析

财政支出与经济增长之间有联系,那么,财政支出结构的变化是否会对经济增长起到显著的作用,它们之间的关系如何,就值得研究。可运用单位根、协整及Granger因果关系检验等计量方法,分析中国财政支出结构与经济增长的关系。     

政府干预与意大利公司治理体系演变

意大利公司治理模式具有鲜明的民族个性特征,完全不同于英美、德日典型的治理模式。其治理机制的形成和演化受政治、经济和商业习惯深刻的影响。虽然意政府对公司治理政策方面表现出“不作为”,但其积极干预经济的其他政策产生的溢出效应,却是推动意大利公司治理发展的主要动力。     

电力行业上市公司治理结构与公司绩效关系的实证研究

本文运用深沪两市57家电力行业上市公司2006年的数据,采用多元线性回归分析方法,从内外两种治理机制对公司绩效的影响进行了实证分析。结果发现,电力行业上市公司的治理结构中,对公司绩效影响较显著的因素分别是:第一大股东的持股比例、前五大股东持股比例之和、反映控制权市场的系数Masc以及高管人员的报酬等四大因素。而对于其他反映治理结构的变量,尤其是反映董事会特征的变量,对公司绩效没有显著的影响作用。     

社会人属性和企业治理效率的改善

基于经济人假设的代理理论及其指导下的企业治理实践产生了一个低效的治理效率.独立董事初步显示了社会人属性对企业治理效率的改善.如果存在足够的具有社会人属性的经营者,那么股东将愿意更多激励和更少监督经营者,这将是一个帕累托改进,因而能够改善企业治理效率.     

公司资本结构与公司治理关系分析

资本结构是公司治理的基础和依据,不同的资本结构产生不同的公司治理机制。通过分析公司资本结构和公司治理之间的关系。阐明公司股权融资的治理效应和债权融资的治理效应。并针对我国上市公司在资本结构和公司治理结构方面存在的问题,提出降低代理成本,提高债务融资比例的对策与建议。     

Present situation and countermeasure research of economic structure of Shaanxi Province

Economic structure is a significant factor impacting economic growth and economic growth quality. In this paper, the present status of economic structure of Shaanxi Province is analyzed, and available primal problem is indicated. There have been a lot of problems in economic structure of Shaanxi Province, mainly including slow tertiary industry development, comparatively grave unbalance of light and heavy industries proportion, lagged development in high and new technology industries, high industry convergence degree, low scale effect, slow agriculture expanding and so on. Meanwhile, homologous countermeasure is given in this text： we should develop tertiary industry with tourism as the leading role energetically to promote industrial hierarchy, impulse structural rationalization of foreign trade through international cooperation and competition, accelerate the industrialization, promote industrial structure upgrade, develop the high and new technology industries quickly, accelerate the promotion of industry scale effect and expedite expansion of industry colony. We should also develop superior industry, reduce industry convergence degree, and develop the agriculture energetically to promote the industrialization and modernization of agriculture. These points are given in the interest of supplying gist and reference to government in industrial structure adjusting and policy making.     

股权结构与公司绩效实证研究的发现及其评价

对中国国有企业改革的研究,主要有“委托—代理”“、法定产权与事实产权不一致”“、产业定位与产权特性相对称”等三个理论框架。对股权结构与公司绩效的实证研究,为这三个理论框架的逻辑分析提供了有力的经验证据,也为深化国有企业改革提供了明确的、有益的指导。     

A re-examination of financial development,stock markets development and economic growth

This study provides new evidence on the role of financial development and stock market development in accounting for economic growth across geographic regions and income groups. To derive feasible policy implications, we estimate not only unbalanced panel regressions with period fixed effects, but also variance decompositions of annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rates to examine what proxy measures are most important in economic growth over time and how much they contribute to economic growth. We find distinct direction, timing and strength of the causal links between financial development, stock market development and economic growth based on the results of Granger causality tests. Therefore, it may be necessary to make different efforts to achieve steady economic growth across geographic regions and income groups.     

公司透明度改进与股权分置的有效性

公司透明度是资本市场有效运行的基础条件,并构成一个经济体的基本信息环境。股改作为上市公司的基础性制度变迁,将对公司治理结构与资本市场运行的信息环境产生重大影响。本文旨在从透明度改进角度,探讨股权分置改革的有效性。研究结果表明,作为基本信息环境透明度的指标,无论是盈余激进度、盈余平滑度还是其综合透明指数,其平均值在2003-2006年间,都呈现出逐年降低趋势,尤其是股改后各不透明度指数下降幅度更大。股改有效地降低盈余激进度和盈余平滑度,从而改进公司透明度,提升资本市场有效性。     

股权结构与公司绩效关系研究综述——基于内生性和动态性视角

国内外有关股权结构与公司绩效关系的研究文献非常丰富,但这些文献绝大部分都先验地把股权结构作为外生变量来处理,认为二者是从股权结构到公司绩效的一种单向静态关系。在这种假设下,得出的结论与观察到的事实并非一致。股权结构不是一个独立外生变量,而是包括绩效在内的多种因素共同作用的均衡结果。它不仅受当期和上期绩效的作用,同时也可能对当期和下期绩效产生影响,即股权结构不仅是内生的,而且还是动态的。本文综述了国内外目前在这方面的最新研究成果。     

简论资本结构、公司治理及股权分置改革

资本结构在公司治理中具有十分重要的地位,但是我国长期存在的股权分置问题,严重影响了资本结构治理作用的发挥.通过改革前后资本结构的变化,分析了股权分置改革对上市公司资本结构与公司治理的影响,并提出了进一步的改进建议.     

上市公司股权结构与综合经营绩效的相关性分析——基于我国上市公司2001～2005年数据

我国资本市场中国有股一股独大、股权分置等特殊股权结构被认为是造成目前我国上市公司治理效率缺失、绩效不佳的重要原因.我国特殊股权结构与公司绩效是否有相关性,有怎样的相关性?以我国上市公司为研究对象,选择2001.2005年的上市公司为研究样本,运用数量分析方法,探讨股权结构对公司业绩的影响并提出政策建议.     

财政支出、经济外部性与政府双重角色转换——基于DSGE模型的理论分析和实证研究

将政府财政支出分解为消费性支出和生产性支出,建立了政府消费性支出与私人消费之间、政府资本与私人资本之间的非线性替代关系函数。将政府公共生产性服务和公共消费性服务的双重角色加入动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型,分析不同经济结构下政府的双重角色对中国宏观经济的影响差异。实证结果显示:政府生产性支出的弹性系数正在变小,政府生产性支出对中国宏观经济的影响在逐渐消失;在合理监管下,政府消费性支出有利于改善和提高人们的生活质量,并且不会对私人投资产生挤出效应。因此,政府应加大对财政消费性支出的监管力度。