Bayesian analysis of periodic unit roots in the presence of a break

A Bayesian testing approach for a periodic unit root in quarterly and monthly data is presented. Further a Bayesian test is introduced to test for unit roots at (non)seasonal spectral frequencies. All procedures admit one structural break in the periodic trend function, where the occurrence of a break and the associated timing are treated as additional model parameters. A Bayesian model averaging (BMA) approach is proposed and power functions of the tests are computed. Overall the results indicate that the BMA periodic unit root test exhibits favourable test properties even in small samples. In an empirical application the presented testing procedures are used to test for (non)seasonal forms of unemployment persistence among OECD countries.     

Comparing new Keynesian models in the Euro area: a Bayesian approach

This paper estimates and compares four versions of the sticky price New Keynesian model for the Euro area using a Bayesian approach. We find that the average duration of price contracts is between two and four quarters, while the average duration of wage contracts is estimated to be below two quarters. Both mechanisms of price and wage indexation are not important when autocorrelated price markup shocks are introduced in the model. These results are in stark contrast to Smets and Wouters (2003): when we use their priors, our estimated posterior distributions are similar to theirs, but the models’ fit to the data is worse. We are thankful to the Econometric Modelling Unit at the European Central Bank for providing us with the Euro area data. We also thank two anonymous referees for helpful suggestions. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of Caixa d’Estalvis i Pensions de Barcelona (“la Caixa”).     

Estimating technology in the postal sector: a Bayesian approach

The aim of this article is to study the technology of the sector represented by the Spanish national post-office and telegraph service, Sociedad Estatal Correos y Telégrafos, S.A. trading as Correos, and denominated as such hereafter. Concretely, we analyse economic efficiency (technical and allocative) and scale economies of the production units (cost centres) of Correos. To do this, we employ a methodology based on an input distance function which is the dual of the cost function. Moreover, and applying duality theory, we develop an economic model to assess the effect of postal infrastructures on the operators’ costs. In order to carry out the empirical model, Bayesian econometrics is applied to estimate the parameters in the input distance function and the technical and allocative efficiency terms.     

The interaction effect of gender and ethnicity in loan approval: A Bayesian estimation with data from a laboratory field experiment

Microfinance targets women and uses loan provision as a tool for empowerment, which translates into better household nutrition, improved education, and a scale down of domestic violence. However, ethnic discrimination in microfinance may exist in countries with a segregated indigenous population. We assessed this possibility with a field experiment in Bolivia. The controlled laboratory experiment evaluated whether credit officers rejected microloan applications based on the interaction effect of ethnicity and gender of potential borrowers. Point estimates of a Bayesian mixed‐effects logistic regression, estimated with the experimental data, indicate that nonindigenous women have double the chance of loan approval, but indigenous women have only 1.5 times the chance of loan approval when compared with men. While the findings about gender are limited, the evidence for the interaction of gender and ethnicity is more robust and suggests the existence of positive taste‐based discrimination favorable for nonethnic women in Bolivia. We conclude that the affirmative actions towards women promoted by development agencies and microfinance institutions must not overlook ethnicity as an important factor for financial policies of sustainable development. In practice, these policies should be aimed at identifying and reducing both social desirability bias and the structural barriers to financial inclusion that indigenous women may face when trying to obtain access to a loan.     

中国核心通货膨胀的估计——基于贝叶斯Gibbs Sampler状态空间模型

观测到的通货膨胀可以分解为趋势成分和暂时成分,其中的趋势成分即核心通货膨胀。准确度量核心通货膨胀对宏观经济政策的制定和经济形势的判断有重要意义。本文首先建立了估计核心通货膨胀的状态空间模型,然后将贝叶斯Gibbs Sampler方法应用于估计该状态空间模型的参数,以克服卡尔曼滤波的缺陷。本文估计了1991-2010年的核心CPI,结果表明估计的核心CPI很好地反映了货币政策的变化,同CPI相比,核心CPI有较小的波动性并且与货币供给增长率具有更强的相关性。由此得出结论,当前只要食品价格不出现持续的大幅上涨,同时继续保持稳健的货币政策,中国就不会出现严重的通货膨胀,即使个别食品价格上涨造成CPI上涨也必然是不可持续的。     

Exploring the effect of crisis on cooperatives: a Bayesian performance analysis of French craftsmen cooperatives

ABSTRACT

The aim of this paper is to understand the economic performance of craftsmen cooperatives during the crisis period. These cooperatives have the distinctive feature of being supply cooperatives. We use an exhaustive dataset for the French craftsmen cooperatives (2004–2014). We estimate Bayesian Translog econometric models in order to underline the impact of the 2008 crisis on these cooperatives. On the one hand, cooperatives’ turnover and economies of scales decrease during the crisis, the effect is lower for elder cooperatives and varies across sectors. On the other hand, there is a convergence towards the mean for the various generations of cooperatives. These findings are robust to alternative econometric specifications.     

移动电话制造业:外商直接投资溢出效应案例研究

外商直接投资的进入使得东道国的本土企业获取的劳动效率提高,这就是业内所称的溢出效应。研究表明,国家开放本身并不能保证外商直接投资能够在本国创造溢出效应,FDI的行业内溢出效应也不是自动产生的,东道国的政府政策以及不同的行业状况和特点都对溢出效应产生影响。我国的移动电话制造业是近十年来新兴的、发展迅猛的,同时又是一个典型的利用外资发展起来的行业,本文作者针对我国移动电话制造业进行案例研究以此进一步探讨FDI溢出效应产生的机制。此文由国家自然科学基金支持,基金批准号为:70473045。     

The importance of accounting for the uncertainty around the preference-based health-related quality-of-life measures value sets: a systematic review

Preference-based measures of health-related quality-of-life including, but not limited to, the EQ-5D, HUI2 and the SF-6D have been increasingly used in calculations of quality-adjusted life years for cost effectiveness analyses. However, the uncertainty around the measures’ value sets is commonly ignored in economic evaluation. There are several types of uncertainties, including methodological, structural, and parameter uncertainties, with the latter being the focus of this review paper. The objective is to highlight the gap in the literature regarding the existence of uncertainty in the value sets, focusing mainly on the EQ-5D and SF-6D. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first systematic review revolving around uncertainty. After searching extensively for studies involving uncertainties in all preference-based measures, the results showed that uncertainty has been approached through different means, while parameter uncertainty has been ignored in most, if not all, cases. These findings suggest that uncertainty should be accounted for when using preference-based measures in economic evaluations. Ignoring this additional information could impact misleadingly on policy decisions.     

The effect of a currency union on trade: Lessons from the Irish experience

This paper studies the introduction of an exchange rate between Ireland and the UK in 1979 to shed light on the effects of a common currency on the composition of international trade. No evidence is found from time series or panel regressions that the change of exchange rate regime had a significant effect on Anglo-Irish trade. This finding is consistent with previous studies of currency unions between larger, developed countries but conflicts with findings based on more heterogeneous country groupings. The reasons for this discrepancy are discussed.     

The spillover effect of the US uncertainty on emerging economies: a panel VAR approach

The article quantifies the spillover effects of the United States’ (US) uncertainty shocks on emerging economies, using a panel VAR model. We find that the US uncertainty shocks are the risks, and hence drop the capital inflow, investment, consumption, export and output of emerging economies. This also induces a depreciation of emerging market currencies. As a result, our model predicts a fall in short-term interest rate of emerging economies to react against the US uncertainty shocks. Our findings partly help explain the slow recovery of the world economy after the 2008–2009 global financial crisis.     

Dissertation abstract: “Essays in applied economics on the intervention of a third player in agency relationships”

Agency theory has established that appropriate incentives can reconcile the diverging interests of the principal and the agent. Focusing on three applications, this dissertation evaluates the empirical relevance of these results when a third party interacts with the primary contract. The analyses provided rely on either laboratory or natural experiments. First, corruption is analyzed as a two-contract situation: a delegation contract between a Principal and an Agent and a corruption pact concluded between this Agent and a third player, called Briber. A survey of the recent microeconomic literature on corruption first highlights how corruption behavior results from the properties of those two agreements. We thereafter show that the Agent faces a conflict in reciprocities due to those two conflicting agreements. The resulting delegation effect, supported by observed behavior in our three-player experimental game, could account for the deterrence effect of wages on corruption. Second, health care is governed by contradictory objectives: patients are mainly concerned with the health provided, whereas containing health care costs is the primary goal of health care administrators. We provide further insights into the ability of incentives to balance these two competing objectives. In this matter, our theoretical and econometric analysis evaluates how a new mixed compensation scheme, introduced in Quebec in 1999 as an alternative to fee-for-services, has affected physicians’ practice patterns. Free switching is shown to be an essential feature of the reform, since it implements screening between physicians. Finally, the demand for underground work departs from the traditional Beckerian approach to illegal behavior, due to the dependence of benefits from illegality on competitors’ behavior. We set up a theoretical model in which the demand for underground work from all producers competing on the same output market is analyzed simultaneously. We first show that competition drastically undermines the individual benefits of tax evasion. At equilibrium, each firm nonetheless chooses evasion with a positive probability, strictly lower than one. This Bertrand curse could then account for the “tax evasion puzzle” i.e. the overprediction of evasion in models that ignore market interactions. We thereafter show that allowing firms to denounce competitors’ evasion is not likely to solve this curse—by providing a credible threat against price cuts, it fosters illegal work. Empirical evidence from a laboratory experiment confirms these predictions. Without denunciation, experimental firms often choose evasion whereas evasion benefits are canceled out by competition. When introduced, denunciation is rarely used by firms, but the threat makes evasion profitable. JEL Classification K42, I18, D21, C25, C91     

Real-world dosing and drug costs with everolimus or axitinib as second targeted therapies for advanced renal cell carcinoma: a retrospective chart review in the US

Objective:

To describe dosing patterns and to compare the drug costs per month spent in progression-free survival (PFS) among patients with advanced renal cell carcinoma (aRCC) treated with everolimus or axitinib following a first tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI).

Methods:

A medical record retrospective review was conducted among medical oncologists and hematologists/oncologists in the US. Patient eligibility criteria included: (1) age ≥18 years; (2) discontinuation of first TKI (sunitinib, sorafenib, or pazopanib) for medical reasons; (3) initiation of axitinib or everolimus as a second targeted therapy during February 2012–January 2013. Real-world dosing patterns were summarized. Dose-specific drug costs (as of October 2014) were based on wholesale acquisition costs from RED BOOK Online. PFS was compared between everolimus and axitinib using a multivariable Cox proportion hazards model. Everolimus and axitinib drug costs per month of PFS were compared using multivariable gamma regression models.

Results:

A total of 325 patients received everolimus and 127 patients received axitinib as second targeted therapy. Higher proportions of patients treated with axitinib vs everolimus started on a higher than label-recommended starting dose (14% vs 2%) or experienced dose escalation (11% vs 1%) on second targeted therapy. The PFS did not differ significantly between patients receiving everolimus or axitinib (adjusted hazard ratio (HR)?=?1.16; 95% confidence interval [CI]?=?0.73–1.82). After baseline characteristics adjustment, axitinib was associated with 17% ($1830) higher drug costs per month of PFS compared to everolimus ($12,467 vs $10,637; p?<?0.001).

Limitations:

Retrospective observational study design and only drug acquisition costs considered in drug costs estimates.

Conclusions:

Patients with aRCC receiving axitinib as second targeted therapy were more likely to initiate at a higher than label-recommended dose and were more likely to dose escalate than patients receiving everolimus. With similar observed durations of PFS, drug costs were significantly higher—by 17% per month of PFS—with axitinib than with everolimus.     

Understanding the effects on HR-QoL of treatment for overactive bladder: a detailed analysis of EQ-5D clinical trial data for mirabegron

Abstract

Background:

Analysis of EQ-5D data often focuses on changes in utility, ignoring valuable information from other parts of the instrument. The objective was to explore how the utility index, EQ-5D profile, and EQ-VAS captured change in clinical trials of mirabegron, a new treatment for overactive bladder (OAB).

Data:

Data were pooled from three phase III clinical trials that investigated the efficacy and safety of mirabegron vs placebo. Tolterodine ER 4?mg was included as an active control in one study: (1) placebo, mirabegron 50?mg and 100?mg, and tolterodine 4?mg ER; (2) placebo, mirabegron 50?mg and 100?mg; (3) placebo, and mirabegron 25?mg and 50?mg. Data were collected at baseline, week 4, 8, and 12.

Methods:

Analyses were performed on full analysis and modified intention to treat (ITT) data sets using UK utilities. Analysis controlled for relevant patient characteristics. Analysis of Covariance identified changes from baseline at each time point in utilities and EQ-VAS. Areas Under the Curve were estimated to summarize inter-temporal differences in effect. EQ-5D profile data were analysed using the Paretian Classification of Health Change.

Results:

In modified ITT analyses, mirabegron 50?mg was superior to tolterodine 4?mg in changes from baseline utilities after 12 weeks (p?<?0.05); similarly, AUC results showed mirabegron 50?mg to be superior to tolterodine (p?<?0.05) and placebo (p?<?0.05) with the benefit already apparent at 4 weeks (p?<?0.05). EQ-VAS more consistently indicated superior outcomes: all three mirabegron doses showed statistically significant greater effectiveness compared to tolterodine at 12 weeks. Individual EQ-5D dimensions and the overall profile showed no significant differences between study arms.

Conclusion:

Mirabegron showed quicker and superior improvement in HR-QoL compared to tolterodine 4?mg ER. A limitation of the study is that EQ-5D was a secondary outcome in the pivotal trials, which were not powered to measure differences on EQ-5D.     

The effect of marginal tax rates on taxable income: a panel study of the 1988 tax flattening in Canada

Federal tax reform in 1988 flattened the Canadian personal income tax schedule, changing the marginal tax rates for many individuals. Using methods similar to those applied by Auten and Carroll [Rev. Econ. 81(4) (1999) 681] in the study of the effects of the 1986 U.S. Tax Reform Act, we estimate the responsiveness of income to changes in taxes to be substantially smaller in Canada. However we find evidence of a much higher response in self-employment income, in the labor income of seniors and from those with high incomes.     

Revisiting the threshold effect of remittances on total factor productivity growth in South Asia: a study of Bangladesh and India

Both Bangladesh and India are among the top recipient of remittances in absolute terms. However, in relative terms – remittances as a per cent of GDP – the two countries stand at 6.1% and 2.8%, respectively, well below the levels of the top 10 recipients. In this article, we explore the effect of remittances on the total factor productivity (TFP) growth considering Bangladesh and India, as reference countries over the periods 1980–2012 and 1977–2012, respectively. We examine the presence of a long-run association between remittances and TFP using a number of tests. The results indicate that remittances have threshold effects on TFP growth in both countries. Despite the two countries receiving substantial amount of remittances, we note that Bangladesh has a U-shaped relationship whereas India has an inverted U-shaped relationship with TFP growth. For Bangladesh, a minimum threshold of remittances (% GDP) is 5.3% and for India, a tipping point of remittances (% GDP) is at 1.8%. The causality tests confirm a bidirectional effect, which implies that remittances and TFP growth are mutually reinforcing. Interestingly, while the two economies have similar remittances impact in regards to causality, the study highlights two different tipping points of remittances.     

The effect of sporting success and management failure on attendance demand in the Bundesliga: a revealed and stated preference travel cost approach

This study examines the private consumption benefits of sports attendance using revealed and stated preference data from 28 Football Bundesliga teams across three divisions. Survey respondents were presented with positive (sporting success) and negative (management failure) scenarios and asked for the number of game trips if each scenario occurred. The results of a pooled random effects Poisson model show that travel costs and ticket price have a significant negative effect on the number of home game trips. The weighted consumer surplus per game trip including travel costs and ticket prices is €345. Consumer surplus per game trip was found to change by €41 (first division) and €98 (second and third division) if the positive scenario occurred and by €39 if the negative scenario occurred.