Are momentum traders different? Implications for the momentum puzzle

This article examines the puzzlingly high unexploited momentum returns from a new perspective. We analyse characteristics of momentum traders in a sample of 692 fund managers. We find that momentum traders are ‘defined’ by their short-term horizon, by a behavioural view on the market and by a somewhat lower degree of risk aversion, whereas they are like other fund managers with respect to sophistication. This is consistent with the interpretation that momentum returns may compensate for the risk of momentum trading on short-term horizons and that the short-term oriented momentum traders are not in a position to perform long-term arbitrage.     

Cryptocurrencies and asset pricing

We demonstrate that investors obtain abnormal returns by trading cryptocurrencies daily on the London Stock Exchange from 2014–2017. Excess returns persist once we account for systematic risk, size, value, momentum, profitability and investment. Investor abnormal returns in cryptocurrencies implies inefficiency.     

中国资本市场对绿色投资认可吗?——基于绿色基金的分析

在可持续发展思想的指导下,人们对绿色投资的生态价值已达成共识.而绿色投资能否兼顾环境绩效和财务收益的双重目标,无论是在理论上还是实证上都还没有得到统一的结论.文章以绿色基金的绩效评估为切入点,研究了我国绿色投资的收益与风险.文章首先从环境金融、社会责任投资和金融创新视角系统梳理了绿色投资研究的发展脉络,然后选取22只绿色基金,在选定市场基准和匹配非绿色传统基金对照组的基础上,评价了绿色基金的直接收益和风险以及基于单因素和多因素模型(Carhart四因素模型)的风险调整收益,并进一步分析了基金投资者(绿色投资者)的收益敏感性.基于单因素模型的绩效评价显示,现阶段我国绿色基金的风险调整收益要低于市场基准和传统基金,投资策略差异和成立时间长短对基金收益和风险有影响.基于Carhart四因素模型的分析结果显示,我国绿色基金的投资表现要显著低于市场平均水平,市场风险因子、价值因子和动量因子可以较为客观地解释绿色基金的收益.另外,绿色基金投资者的收益敏感性不高.文章为尚有限的我国绿色投资研究提供了新的直接的证据.     

Common risk factors in the returns on cryptocurrencies

This paper identifies three common risk factors in the returns on cryptocurrencies, which are related to cryptocurrency market return, market capitalization (size) and momentum of cryptocurrencies. Investigating a collection of 78 cryptocurrencies, we find that there are anomalous returns that decrease with size and increase with return momentum, and the momentum effect is more significant in small cryptocurrencies. Moreover, Fama-Macbeth regressions show the size and momentum combine to capture the cross-sectional variation in average cryptocurrency returns. In the tests of the three-factor model, we find most cryptocurrencies and their portfolios have significant exposures to the proposed three factors with insignificant intercepts, demonstrating that the three factors explain average cryptocurrency returns very well.     

Cross-sectional and time-series momentum returns and market dynamics: evidence from Japan

We test the behavioural theories of overconfidence and underreaction on cross-sectional (CS) and time-series (TS) momentum returns in the Japanese stock markets. Both CS and TS momentum returns are large and significant when the market continues in the same state and turns into losses when the market transitions to another state, consistent with the overconfidence but not the underreaction model. We find that TS conditional momentum returns exceed conditional CS momentum returns because of its active position since TS takes a net long (short) position following UP (DN) markets while CS is a zero-cost strategy irrespective of the market state. Finally, we find no relation between idiosyncratic volatility (IV) and momentum returns which is not supportive of either the overconfidence or underreaction model but implies that IV is not a significant limit to arbitrage in Japan.     

Liquidity and equity returns in Borsa Istanbul

We investigate the relationship between expected returns and liquidity measures in Borsa Istanbul. To do so, we gather a wide range of illiquidity measures that can be applied to the market. Firm-level cross-sectional regressions indicate that there is a positive relationship between various illiquidity measures and one- to six-month ahead stock returns. Findings of the article are robust after using different sample periods and controlling for well-known priced factors, such as market beta, size, book-to-market ratio and momentum. The portfolio analysis reveals that stocks that are in the highest illiquidity quintile earn 7.2%–19.2% higher risk-adjusted annual returns than those in the lowest illiquidity quintile. The illiquidity premium is stronger for small stocks and stocks with higher return volatility and it increases (decreases) during periods of extremely low (high) market returns.     

Investment horizons,cash flow news,and the profitability of momentum and reversal strategies in the Chinese stock market

This study investigates the profitability of momentum and reversal strategies of different investment horizons in the Chinese stock market. The findings indicate that momentum strategies are profitable for investment horizons less than one week. For longer investment horizons, reversal strategies are profitable. This result is very different from the US market, where profitable momentum strategies yield to much longer investment horizons. We show that this is because investors in Chinese stock market generally overreact to the company cash flow news while investors in US market underreact to cash flow news.     

The relation between asset growth and the cross-section of stock returns: Evidence from the Chinese stock market

This study examines the effect of firm investment on stock returns by using data on the Chinese stock market. We find that stocks with higher investment experience lower future returns and there is an obvious investment effect in the Chinese stock market. The investment effect is stronger for firms that have higher cash flows, lower debt or for state-owned firms. We further explore the relation between investment and returns over the 3 years around portfolio formation. The results show that the high investment firms earn higher returns than low investment firms before portfolio formation; however the high investment firms earn lower returns than low investment firms after portfolio formation, such evidence is supportive of investor's overreaction explanation. Additionally, the stock returns don't necessarily decrease after investment, and the stock returns don't significantly positively correlate with firm profitability or book-to-market, so the result don't support risk-based explanation. Overall, both our portfolio sort and two-stage cross-sectional regression analysis show that behavioral finance theories are better than risk-based theories in explaining the investment anomaly. Evidence from the Chinese stock market provides a useful perspective to understand the debate on the investment anomaly.     

分工、协作与古典企业理论的再造

现代企业理论自创立以来,一直都未能摆脱新古典思想的束缚,从而降低了它的解释力。本文将古典经济学关于分工与协作的思想应用于对企业的解释,并得出以下结论:分工不仅要受到市场容量的限制,更重要的是,还要受市场不确定性的限制,企业内分工协作与市场分工协作的差异才是企业利润的真正来源。企业的性质可以概括为:企业是追求分工经济与协作经济的要素所有者结合的产物。降低交易成本是企业出现后的结果,而不是企业出现的原因;当在企业内组织生产的边际利润等于在市场内组织生产的边际利润时,企业便会停止扩张。     

Firm-specific risk and IPO market cycles

This article characterizes the role of risk in the initial public offering (IPO) cycle. While most of the previous literature uses the volatility of IPO initial returns to measure risk, we focus on different risk measures, namely firm-level systematic and idiosyncratic volatilities and the market-wide implied volatility index (VIX), to assess their role in the IPO cycle. Our results shed new light on (1) which risk measure is important in the determination of IPO cycles, (2) the temporal pattern of each risk component across issuing firms and (3) the relationship between market-wide uncertainty and IPO risk. Our findings reveal a lead-lag relationship between IPO waves, VIX and the IPO systematic risk measure. We also highlight the fact that market-level uncertainty predicts IPO activity and the level of idiosyncratic risk of the next-period-issuing firms. Issuing firms’ systematic risk can only be predicted by the systematic risk of firms now proceeding to their offering. The main implication resulting from our study is that one can better anticipate ‘hot-issue’ markets, as well as the specific risk components of future new issues. This will help improve upon the regulatory environment, IPO investment decisions and IPO timing given market receptivity.     

Time-varying beta: a boundedly rational equilibrium approach

The conditional CAPM with time-varying betas has been widely used to explain the cross-section of asset returns. However, most of the literature on time-varying beta is motivated by econometric estimation using various latent risk factors rather than explicit modelling of the stochastic behaviour of betas through agents’ behaviour, such as momentum trading. Misspecification of beta risk and the lack of any theoretical guidance on how to specify risk factors based on the representative agent economy appear empirically challenging. In this paper, we set up a dynamic equilibrium model of a financial market with boundedly rational and heterogeneous agents within the mean-variance framework of repeated one-period optimisation and develop an explicit dynamic behaviour CAPM relation between the expected equilibrium returns and time-varying betas. By incorporating the two most commonly used types of investors, fundamentalists and chartists, into the model, we show that there is a systematic change in the market portfolio, risk-return relationships, and time varying betas when investors change their behaviour, such as the chartists acting as momentum traders. In particular, we demonstrate the stochastic nature of time-varying betas. We also show that the commonly used rolling window estimates of time-varying betas may not be consistent with the ex-ante betas implied by the equilibrium model. The results provide a number of insights into an understanding of time-varying beta.     

Attribution of hedge fund returns using a Kalman filter

Hedge funds offer attractive investment possibilities because they engage in investment styles and opportunity sets which – because they are different from traditional asset class funds – generate different risk exposures. Conventional wisdom holds that hedge funds add value and provide unique investment opportunities because of their ability to invest in disparate risk exposures, and via the manager’s skill in selecting stocks and timing the market. In this article, a Kalman filter is used to decompose the time series of hedge fund returns into market timing and stock selection factors to establish whether fund managers really do generate statistically significant abnormal profits. Compelling evidence supports an alternative interpretation for the market timing return constituent. This work represents the first time the Kalman filter has been used to extract a time series of the capital asset pricing model’s dynamic variables for determining return component magnitudes.     

Isolating the systematic and unsystematic components of a single stock’s (or portfolio’s) standard deviation: a comment

In an article that recently appeared in this journal, Marshall (2015) argued that the systematic component of the SD of a stock or of a portfolio of stocks is its beta scaled by the SD of the market returns. She also contended that the beta mispredicts the actual systematic risk of a stock or of a portfolio of stocks. In this article, I dispute this conclusion, showing that it has been induced by an imperfection in the construction of the empirical application and by some misinterpretations of the results. A corrected replication of the empirical study of Marshall (2015) is provided, along with some comments. I conclude that both the beta and the systematic component in Marshall (2015) are effective measures of systematic risk.     

On Characteristics Momentum

This article investigates whether investors can benefit from information about equity style evolution. The study shows that portfolios formed by firm characteristics such as size, book-to-market, and/or dividend yield can be used to determine investment style dominance. Characteristics momentum, buying stocks with persistent in-favor characteristics and selling stocks with persistent out-of-favor characteristics, conveys valuable information about future stock returns. It is distinct and has longer-lasting effects than price or industry momentum in predicting future returns. In explaining the existence of characteristics momentum profits, this study highlights the importance of slow evolution of changes in firm characteristics. The lifecycle of investment styles can thus have predictive power for trend-chasing investors, who can potentially push up the price of stocks with an in-favor style, and depress the price of stocks with an out-of-favor style.     

The pricing of foreign exchange risk: Evidence from ADRS

This study investigates whether U.S. investors, in pursuing of international diversification, are exposed to foreign exchange risk through the ownership of American depository receipts (ADRs) and if so, whether such risk is systematic. We find that returns of ADRs from countries such as the United Kingdom, Japan, and South Africa are sensitive to their corresponding foreign exchange rate fluctuations. Using a technique developed by Sweeney and Warga (1986), we estimate the risk premium associated with foreign exchange risk. The results suggest that the total foreign exchange risk is priced at equilibrium. However, the incremental foreign exchange risk that is not imbedded in the market returns does not command a risk premium. The evidence indicates that the incremental foreign exchange risk is diversifiable or can be effectively hedged.     

The momentum effect on Chinese real estate stocks: Evidence from firm performance levels

This paper investigates the momentum effects under different firm performance levels for Chinese real estate stocks using quantile regression with a dummy variable estimator. This paper finds that regardless of the momentum horizon, the momentum effects are positive under high-performing individual stocks, but they are negative under low-performing individual stocks. While prior literature only finds that this asymmetric phenomenon appears under different market states, and the findings on different horizons are inconsistent. Furthermore, this paper finds that the positive (negative) momentum effect under high (low) firm performance levels is stronger than that under bullish (bearish) markets. This implies that superior (inferior) fundamental business performance and bullish (bearish) markets can cause the stock prices to go up (down); however, the effect of the former is stronger than that of the latter. Moreover, this paper finds that the relation between future returns and past turnover ratios is positively correlated under high-performing stocks, but negatively correlated under low-performing stocks. Based on the above findings, this paper regards past turnover ratios as a leading indicator of stock returns and suggests two profitable investment portfolios which are superior to the average returns of real estate stocks.     

Cross-sectional and time-series momentum returns: are Islamic stocks different?

We search for differences in both unconditional and conditional momentum returns of Islamic and Non-Islamic stocks and test implications of competing behavioural theories that aim to explain momentum returns. Our results show that there is no significant difference in momentum returns between Islamic versus Non-Islamic stocks with respect to both cross-sectional (CS) and time-series (TS) momentum strategies even when we condition momentum returns on market dynamics, information uncertainty and idiosyncratic volatility. We also find that the TS strategy outperforms (underperforms) the CS strategy in market continuations (transitions) consistent with the recent evidence in the U.S. market.

Furthermore, we find that CS and TS strategies of both Islamic and Non-Islamic stocks are profitable only when the market continues in the same state consistent with overconfidence driving momentum returns of both Islamic and Non-Islamic stocks.     

Effects of structural changes on the risk characteristics of REIT returns

This investigation provides evidence and identifies two important structural changes in the risk characteristics of real estate investment trusts (REITs), namely, the 1993 tax reform and the inclusion of REITs in the mainstream S&P indices in 2001. Using daily data from 1989 to 2008, this study finds that institutional investors tended to increase their investment in REITs following the 1993 tax reforms, and these increases in institutional investment are significantly reducing exposure to interest rate risk, which may result from the benefits of external monitoring. Additionally, the inclusion of REITs in the Standard and Poor's mainstream indices since 2001 has increased the market risk of REITs, led to associated returns behaving more like those of stocks, and improved the market efficiency in processing new information. These observation results demonstrate these two structural changes in the risk characteristics of REIT returns. Finally, the study results confirm that the shape of the distribution of REIT returns varies among sub-samples, indicating that risk management is increasingly important.     

我国开放式基金赎回问题的行为金融学分析

作为一种新型的投资工具，开放式证券投资基金有助于推动我国证券市场的进一步发展，也具备了较高的盈利能力，但却面临着投资非理性的巨额赎回风险。而行为金融学从金融市场上人们行为认知偏差的角度，即通过心理学、人类学、社会学来分析金融市场上开放式基金出现这种与理性投资相背离现象的原因。     

The winner-loser anomaly: recent evidence from Greece

This article finds evidence of significant reversals in returns over the medium term in Greek stocks. In contrast with previous research, return reversals are more pronounced for past winners, suggesting that the market overreacts to a greater extent to good news. These contrarian returns are particularly elevated when portfolios are formed using quartiles and during tranquil and bull markets. The optimum contrarian strategy involves skipping the first 6 months of the holding period and implementing the contrarian strategy for a period of 18 months, as returns exhibit continuation followed by reversal. The profitability of the contrarian investment strategy is robust to adjustments for risk and seasonalities. It is the tranquil times and not the crisis/volatile times that generates a significant and profitable contrarian strategy. The recent credit crisis and resulting stock market falls, resulted in extreme movements in some Greek stocks and testing of the contrarian strategy problematic, especially when portfolios are decile ordered. Our findings also highlight the importance of survivorship bias and also suggest that contrarian strategies that just use market beta may be ill-equipped to take into consider extreme market movements, illiquidity and short-sales constraints.