The NAIRU reconsidered: why labour market deregulation may raise unemployment

According to the mainstream theory of equilibrium unemployment, persistent unemployment is caused mainly by ‘excessive’ labour market regulation, whereas aggregate demand, capital accumulation and technological progress have no lasting effect on unemployment. We show that the mainstream non‐accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) model is a special case of a general model of equilibrium unemployment, in which aggregate demand, investment and endogenous technological progress do have long‐term effects. It follows that labour market deregulation does not necessarily reduce steady‐inflation unemployment. Theoretically, if the decline in real wage growth claims owing to deregulation is smaller than the ensuing decline in labour productivity growth and in the warranted real wage growth, then in that case steady‐inflation unemployment may increase. Empirical evidence for 20 Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries (1984–1997) indicates that the impact of labour market deregulation on OECD unemployment is zero, and possibly negative (causing a higher rate of unemployment).     

Is the NAIRU more useful in forecasting inflation than the natural rate of unemployment?

Recent studies have indicated that the terms ‘NAIRU’ (non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment) and ‘natural rate of unemployment’ are not interchangeable. While NAIRU is an empirical macroeconomic relationship estimated via a Phillips curve, the natural rate is an equilibrium condition in the labour market, reflecting the market's microeconomic features. This study evaluates comparatively the inflation-forecasting power of alternative time-varying estimates of the natural rate of unemployment relative to the NAIRU. The natural rate of unemployment in the USA since the Second World War is estimated. Three alternative methods are utilized: the Kalman filter, a structural determinants approach, and the Hodrick-Prescott filter. The section that follows assesses how each estimator of the natural rate compares with the others – as well as with the NAIRU derived from a Phillips curve – in forecasting inflationary changes in the USA in the second half of the twentieth century. The analysis reveals that the overall inflation-forecasting utility of the natural rate of unemployment relative to the NAIRU is not very different. Moreover, the conclusion appears to be quite robust to various estimators of the natural rate.     

Search, Nash bargaining and rule-of-thumb consumers

This paper analyses the effects of introducing two typical Keynesian features, namely rule-of-thumb (RoT) consumers and consumption habits, into a standard labour market search model. RoT consumers use the margin that hours and wage negotiation provides them to improve their lifetime utility, by narrowing the gap in utility with respect to Ricardian consumers. This margin for intertemporal optimisation has not been studied yet, because this class of restricted agents has been mainly used in models with no equilibrium unemployment. Our approach allows for a deeper study of the effects of shocks on vacancies, unemployment, hours, wages and how they interact. As habits increase, RoT consumers find it optimal, after a positive technology shock, to negotiate lower hours and higher wages, and this mechanism reduces the simulated correlation between the real wage (or productivity) and total hours to values closer to those obtained empirically. Thus, with the interaction of RoT consumers and consumption habits, the labour market search model improves significantly in reproducing some of the stylised facts characterising the US labour market.     

Identification and dimension of the NAIRU

In this paper, we have re-examined the identification of the NAIRU and presented a well-defined reduced form for analysing the equilibrium unemployment rate, using a cointegrated VAR model. We have stated that the NAIRU estimates using the conventional reduced form (or Phillips curve) models are misleading since the natural rate of unemployment cannot be considered as a fixed point calling for the ceteris paribus assumption for all the data involved. This implies that the NAIRU estimates are unable to provide valuable information on the labour market status.     

Unemployment and interindustry labour mobility in Canada in the 1980s

The determinants of interindustry mobility of labour, and its relationship to the unemployment rate is examined, using micro-data on Canadian workers from 1980/81, 1982/83 and 1985/86. It contrasts the implications of the ‘dynamic reallocation’ model (Lilien, 1982) in which rising aggregate unemployment is due to in creased dispersion in the net hiring rates of firms (implying positive covariance of interindustry mobility and unemployment rates) with the older ‘Keynesian’ perspective that high unemployment ‘chills’ labour market mobility, implying a neative relationship. Qualified support is obtained for the ‘chilling’ model, as well as standard results on the role of job tenure, hours worked, etc. The general moral is the cyclical sensitivity of labour market behaviour, i.e. individuals appear to react to the aggregate unemployment rate.     

The Beveridge curve in Europe: new evidence using national and regional data

The Beveridge curve depicts the empirical negative relationship between job vacancy rate and unemployment rate, and reflects the efficiency of the job matching process. Movements along a fixed downward sloping Beveridge curve are associated with cyclical shocks, while shifts of the curve arise from structural factors that alter the matching efficiency between job vacancies and unemployed workers. National and regional data on job vacancies and unemployment are combined to estimate the Beveridge curves of five European countries and their regions, focusing on the period 1975 to 2004. I also analyse whether shifts in European Beveridge curves are due to changes in the composition of the unemployed pool, labour market rigidities or cyclical and structural shocks. The empirical evidence suggests that changes in labour market rigidities, long term unemployment, as well as cyclical shocks are responsible for outward shifts in European Beveridge curves. I also find evidence of nonlinearities in the relation between unemployment and labour market institutions.     

Hysteresis and sluggishness in Portuguese unemployment, 1977–88

The phenomenon of unemployment persistence led to the development of alternative theories of unemployment. Among these the ‘hysteresis’ concept by Blanchard and Summers (1987) received a wide interest. Based on this notion we developed a generalized model that nests Blanchards and Summers' theory. Using this framework we conducted an empirical investigation for the Portuguese labour market (1977–88). The results obtained point towards the existence of labour demand sluggishness, wage inertia and unemployment hysteresis. The model also suggests the existence of a rather inelastic labour demand curve.     

Keynes,investment, unemployment and expectations

In Keynes’ General Theory, investment determines effective demand, which determines unemployment and the labour market plays a negligible role. In New Keynesian models, labour market institutions determine the natural rate of unemployment and the speed at which unemployment adjusts to it. Investment is mostly ignored as a key variable behind the problem of high unemployment, despite a strong empirical association between investment and unemployment. We discuss the evolution of the ‘Keynesian’ model, and how in the process of domesticating the General Theory, the central relationship between unemployment and investment and the role of the state of confidence was bred out of the model. We then present some evidence of the centrality of investment and expectations to the long‐term evolution of unemployment in OECD countries. We also argue that recent results in finance, which find that individuals do not behave rationally and, moreover, that there may be no basis for rational calculation, provides support for Keynes’s notion that animal spirits play a central role in investment.     

Factor complementarity and labour market dynamics

We propose and estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model featuring search and matching frictions, deep habits and a CES production function. The model successfully replicates the cyclical properties of labour market variables in the US economy for three main reasons. First, two of the endogenous mechanisms of the model – factor complementarity and unemployment benefits – play a key role for explaining the amplification in unemployment and vacancies. Second, deep habits have a smaller but significant role as an endogenous mechanism. Third, capital-augmenting productivity, investment-specific and matching efficiency innovations explain large part of the variation in labour market variables.     

An explorative empirical analysis of the influence of labour flows on wage formation

This study presents an explorative econometric analysis of the influence of labour market flows on wage formation. It applies the vector cointegration and common trends methodology of Johansen (Likelihood-based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregresssive Models, OUP, Oxford, 1995). According to this approach, a combination of the flow of layoffs (flow from employment to unemployment) and the flow of filled vacancies (successful matches) appears to be an adequate alternative to the unemployment rate as indicator of labour market tightness in the wage equation for The Netherlands.     

Benefits and unemployment in an open economy: an equilibrium analysis

This paper examines the relation between uemployment compensation and unemployment in The Netherlands. This relation is studied by menas of a small macroeconomic model for an open economy that assumes equilibrium in the labour market and on the current account. The model yields an elasticity of unemployment to benefits of 1.0, which is high compared to microeconomic research and the outcomes of disequilibrium models for The Netherlands. According to the model, a rise in the ‘wedge’ (i.e. the difference betweenn real labour cost and real net wages) leads to an increase in unemployment, whilst shifting this wedge from the employers to the employees induces a fall in unemployment.     

The Unemployment-Vacancy Relationship in Australia

One of the most important features of the Australian economy in the past two decades has been the structural deterioration of labour market performance, reflected in both an increase in the average rate of unemployment and an outward shift in the Beveridge Curve, which depicts the relationship between unemployment and vacancies. This article attempts to uncover some of the causes for this structural deterioration, in terms of the factors affecting the UVrelationship. We find that the Beveridge Curve shifted out around 1974, consistent with an increase in the equilibrium rate of unemployment which is generally agreed to have occurred around that time. Using gross labour market flow data, we also investigate the determinants of the equilibrium Beveridge Curve in the 1980s. We find that the Beveridge Curve shifted further outwards in the 1980s. The most important determinant of this shift was the decline in the search effectiveness of the unemployed, reflected in the increasing incidence of long-term unemployment. Partially offsetting this influence during this time were the declining labour force participation of men, and the very large increases in female employment.     

PRECAUTIONARY DEMAND FOR LABOUR AND FIRM SIZE

This paper studies firms' job creation decisions in a labour market with search frictions. A simple labour market search model is developed in which a firm can search for a second employee while producing with a first worker, and this creates the equilibrium size distribution of firms. A firm expands employment even if the instantaneous payoff to a large firm is less than that of staying small – a firm has a precautionary motive to expand its size. In addition, this motive is enhanced by a greater market tightness. Because of this effect, firms’ decisions become interdependent – a firm creates a vacancy if it expects other firms to do the same, creating strategic complementarity among firms and thereby self‐fulfilling multiple equilibria. An increase in productivity can cause a qualitative change in labour market tightness and the rate of unemployment.     

Unemployment,long-term employment relations and the determination of unit labour cost growth in US manufacturing industries

This paper examines the effect that unemployment and long-term employment relations exert on the determination of unit labour costs. The paper proceeds in three sections. Section one analyses the relationship between labour market conditions and unit labour costs by developping a simple model of a firm that relies upon dismissal threats to elicit work effort. The comparative static properties of this model suggest that a tightening of labour markets may result in an increase in unit labour costs. In addition, it is argued that the labour market disequilibrium that occurs at full employment levels of unemployment will likely result in an increase in the growth rate of unit labour costs. The second section of the paper reviews diverse theories of long-term employment relations (LTERs), each of which suggest that the presence of LTERs ought to reduce the effect that labour market conditions exert on unit labour costs. The third section of the paper presents empirical estimates of the effect unemployment and LTERs exert on unit labour costs. The central empirical findings can be briefly summarized. First, movements towards full employment increase the growth rate of wages, reduce the growth rate of labour productivity and increase the growth rate of unit labour costs. Secondly, where long-term employment relations are prevalent, the effect of unemployment on wage, labour productivity, and unit labour cost growth is diminished. The paper concludes by discussing the implications these findings have for effort regulation models and the macroeconomic foundations of microeconomic labour market structures     

Wage Determination In Australia*

This paper examines whether a stable expectations-augmented Phillips curve exists for Australia. High real wages in the face of continuing high unemployment over the past decade have led to suggestions that the level of unemployment has little effect on wage determination, with the bargaining process taking place between employers and those employees in ‘secure employment’. Results from aggregate data suggest that the level of unemployment is relevant to wage determination. In addition, the impact of overtime on the growth in money wages is consistent with the view that those in secure employment are influenced by labour market conditions.     

Vacancies and Unemployment in Australia

This article examines the extent to which the Mortensen–Pissarides model of labour market search can quantitatively match business cycle fluctuations in Australia. With productivity and job‐separation‐rate shocks, the model fails to produce substantial volatility among unemployment or vacancies, a result similar to Shimer's (2005) findings for the United States. Examining a broader range of shocks significantly increases the magnitude of business cycle fluctuations, but still only explains roughly 25 per cent of labour market volatility. The implied volatility of wages in the model is similar to that in the data and hence excessive wage flexibility is unlikely to be central to the failure of the model as claimed in the literature.     

Immigration and the natural rate of unemployment in Australia

This paper presents an indirect test of the proposition that a decrease in the rate of immigration into Australia during the early 1960s lowered the efficiency with which unemployed persons and unfilled job vacancies were matched, and increased labor turnover, thereby increasing the “natural” rate of unemployment. A theoretical model of employment growth is used to derive an expression for the steady-state relationship between unemployment and vacancies. Estimates of the model are obtained for the period 1955i–1973ii during which distinctly different immigration levels occurred. The empirical results are not consistent with the contention that a decrease in immigration caused the relationship between unemployment and job vacancies in Australia to shift outward. Therefore, the evidence suggests that the unemployment rate associated with a given level of labor demand was not significantly increased by the reduction in immigration to Australia.     

The dynamics of the US unemployment/help-wanted index relation, 1965—80

A number of articles have analysed the stability of the observed inverse relationship between US unemployment and the index of help-wanted advertising (a proxy for unfilled job vacancies). However, the ‘baseline’ estimating equations used are often static and at best involve rather limited and ad hocdynamics. This note uses the ‘common factor’ methodology to derive systematically the appropriate dynamics of the unemployment/help-wanted index relation. In contrast with a simple static formulation the dynamic equation chosen does not exhibit significant instability, either within the estimation period (1965–78) or beyond it (1979–80).     

The portfolio behaviour of pension funds in the US: an econometric analysis of changes since the new regulation of 1974

In most Western countries, the rate of unemployment has shown a rising trend over the last decades. One of the standard explanations for this is that the ‘natural’ rate of unemployment has risen. In order to investigate this hypothesis, a simple demand–supply model of the Finnish labour market was constructed and estimated. It is proposed that if the development of the unemployment rates can be explained is such a traditional model framework, this would suggest that changes in the ‘natural’ rate are not, after all, the crucial reason for the increasing unemployment rates.

According to the results, the simple model was able to account for the changes in the unemployment rate very well. Furthermore, they seem to support a traditional Keynesian view of the problem, emphasizing output level and labour productivity as the main explanatory variables. Indirectly, it can be concluded that there seem to be no clear signs of a rising ‘natural’ rate of unemployment.     

Wages,work, and unemployment

This paper provides new evidence on unemployment durations for individuals in Great Britain using a three state Markov framework in a competing risk setting and a nationally representative data set. The analysis is based on the premise that an individual's movements between labour market states can be represented by a Markov process. The modelling procedure combines the dynamic properties of the search approach to unemployment while using the labour supply decision at each moment in time in response to the expected wage to include participation decisions. Using this framework, we are able to determine the effect of individual characteristics, including the expected wage, on labour market behaviour. The model is estimated separately for men and women, and for young and mature workers, to investigate whether labour market behaviour differs for these groups. The validity of the Markov assumptions are tested using different model specifications, and changes in the model over calendar time are also presented.