中国机动车辆保险承保周期存在性分析

承保周期反映了承保利润的周期性变动情况，同时这种变动伴随着保费、保险产品供给的周期性波动。在欧美等产险业发达的国家，承保周期现象得到了广泛的研究，但是在中国由于经营机制和数据库建立不完善等问题，至今对承保周期的研究几乎一片空白。本文利用国外学者 Venezaian 提出的二阶自回归模型来检验中国机动车辆保险的周期存在性，经过检验认为机动车辆保险存在承保周期，因而，保险公司、保险监管机关、投资者可以利用承保周期规律来制定更加科学合理的决策。     

Respondent direct experience and contingent willingness to pay for new commodities: a switching endogenous interval regression analysis

Most environmental economists argue that direct experience with the good being valuated, or with similar goods, is a precondition for providing valid willingness to pay (WTP) responses to contingent valuation questions. Two questions are posed in this article. The first is whether previous use experience of a resource (Séné nature reserve) similar to that being valuated (future nature reserves) and located in the same geographical area (Gulf of Morbihan) impacts on WTP. The second is whether accounting for the endogeneity of direct experience matters in the estimation of WTP. We find that respondents who have not experienced the Séné nature reserve provide value estimates that are statistically comparable to that of respondents who have experienced it. Our assumption is that respondents have acquired sufficient and adequate experience of future nature reserves from the questionnaire that experience obtained by experiencing the Séné nature reserve was not necessary for making a valid value formulation. Hence, aggregation of WTP estimates to obtain a total valuation of the future nature reserves is reasonable over the full target population. In addition, our results show that direct experience is endogenously determined; but controlling for the endogeneity has a marginal effect on WTP estimates.     

基于条件价值评估法的中国巨灾风险保险模式定量设计——基于网络问卷调查的实证研究

巨灾风险损失经验数据的缺乏使得保险人设计合理的巨灾风险保险模式存在较大困难。基于巨灾风险保险的准公共物品性质,通过网络问卷调查,运用条件价值评估法,从消费者意愿角度对中国巨灾风险保险模式的主要项目进行定量设计,可以克服非寿险常规费率厘定方法的缺陷,对纠正巨灾风险保险市场失灵亦有积极意义。     

Margin rate and the cycle: the role of trade openness

Using three datasets of French manufacturing firms, this article studies the role of trade openness, in relation with the cycle, as a determinant of company margin rate. Margin rates increase as capacity utilization tightens (and vice versa), reflecting the procyclicality of margin rates. However, high import rates are limiting this procyclicality: when capacities are tight, domestic producers may not be able to serve demand, but foreign producers may substitute for them if they are already present on the market as reflected by the level of import rates.     

Consumption over the life cycle: The role of annuities

We explore the quantitative implications of uncertainty about the length of life and a lack of annuity markets for life cycle consumption in a general equilibrium overlapping generations model in which markets are otherwise complete. Empirical studies find that consumption displays a hump shape over the life cycle. Our model exhibits life cycle consumption that is consistent with this pattern. Our calibrated model, which includes an unfunded social security system, displays a hump shape but the peak occurs later in the life cycle than in the data. Adding a bequest motive causes this decline to begin at a younger age.     

Unemployment insurance: The role of electoral systems and regional labour markets

Levels of insurance against unemployment vary considerably across countries. Replacement rates, the ratio relating income from unemployment to what people earned when they were employed, are higher in countries with proportional electoral systems than in countries with majoritarian systems. Also, replacement rates are positively correlated with per capita income and negatively correlated with the countries' unemployment rates. I develop an electoral competition model that replicates these stylized facts.     

Firm dynamics in news-driven business cycles: the role of endogenous survival rate

Evidences from the structural vector-error correction model shows that the new business formation and stock prices co-moves with output under news shocks. However, simply incorporating firm dynamics into Jaimovich and Rebelo’s (Jaimovich and Rebelo, 2009) model cannot explain these empirical findings. We show that this problem can be resolved by introducing endogenous survival rates for the new entrants.     

Donation Payment Mechanisms and Contingent Valuation: An Empirical Study of Hypothetical Bias

Donation payment mechanisms are well suited forsome contingent valuation studies. In aneffort to better understand the discrepancythat has been consistently found between actualand hypothetical donations, we investigate anapproach to estimating actual willingness todonate using contingent donations with afollow-up question in which respondents ratethe level of certainty about their response tothe contingent donation question. The approachallows us to estimate the magnitude of thehypothetical bias and identify the respondentsresponsible for the bias. Identification ofthe respondents responsible for thehypothetical bias is the first step towarddeveloping an understanding of the causes andpossible remedies. In this study we find thatmost of the respondents (80%) to thecontingent donation question provide a responseconsistent with how we predict they wouldrespond in an actual donation situation.     

Costing the traffic barrier effect: A contingent valuation survey

When considering the environmental damage caused by road traffic, one traditionally focuses attention on the consequences of accidents, or on the impact of air and noise pollution. This somewhat narrow definition should be enlarged to capture other, more psychological nuisances. The barrier effect created by heavily travelled streets belongs to this group of nuisances, rarely described and never estimated in monetary terms. It particularly affects children, the disabled and elderly people for whom the street becomes too large to cross. In a survey carried out at Neuchâtel, Switzerland, a contingent market was proposed to suppress the barrier effect around the city centre. A valuation function to predict the bids is estimated and used to infer the annual cost of the nuisance.     

Frameworks for the magement of technology: towards a contingent approach

The purpose of this paper is to examine different approaches to the management of technology (or MOT). From a historical perspective, the strategic MOT seems to be the latest trend in the development of MOT. To illustrate this, the field of MOT is divided into four schools of thought: the R&D management school, the innovation mangement school, the technology planning school and the strategic MOT school. This leads to an examination of the assumptions concerning the content and process of these schools. A number of implications of taking a strategic approach to the MOT are discussed.     

Liquidity shocks: A new solution to the forward premium puzzle

The frequent empirical failure of uncovered interest rate parity raises a question that has not been definitively answered: why do predictable excess returns on currencies persist in competitive currency markets? Supported by data from nine major currencies for 1978:08–2019:09, I provide a novel resolution to this enduring forward premium puzzle by building on the financial economics literature that explores the economic implications of limited access to capital markets. A liquidity shock, or the urgent demand for liquidity by credit-constrained arbitragers liquidating bond holdings, causes losses from sudden drops in bond prices. Arbitragers require a liquidity premium to compensate for potential losses that vary directly with the interest rate. It is this liquidity premium that explains persistent excess returns on currencies. I argue for policies favoring a low interest rate environment and macroprudential controls that ease liquidity constraints to increase the efficiency of international capital markets by reducing the liquidity premium.     

A new perspective on the exporter productivity premium: online trade

We use a unique firm-level data set including 9000 companies from 26 European Union countries covering four different sectors to take a close look at the relationship between online exports and productivity. The online exporter productivity premium is estimated using different techniques (ordinary least squares, quantile regressions and robust estimation). Results consistently indicate that the estimated online exporter productivity premium is statistically different from zero, positive and significant from an economic point of view. European online exporters, according to these results, are approximately 2% more productive than non-online exporters. Productivity differences between firms could be related to variables that are not included in the empirical model. More research would be needed to address this issue in the future.     

On the utility premium of Friedman and Savage

We re-examine the utility premium of Friedman–Savage [Friedman, Milton and Savage, Leonard J., “The Utility Analysis of Choices Involving Risk.” Journal of Political Economy 56, 1948, pp. 279–304.]. This measure is useful in understanding risky choices. For instance its reaction to an increased wealth equates to a precautionary demand for saving. We also analyze its two components.     

论我国实行强制性环境责任保险制度的可行性——以环境责任保险制度的发展演进为视角

近年来,我国经济的高速发展带来了大量的社会问题,日益严重的环境污染问题就是其中之一。为了治理环境污染,提高污染企业的环境保护意识,我国于20世纪90年代初开始试行环境责任保险,经历了从任意性责任保险到强制性责任保险的发展历程,发展思路和模式也逐渐清晰,当前已经具备构建强制性环境责任保险制度的基本条件。实行强制性环境责任保险与企业社会责任理念相契合,投保环境责任保险是企业承担社会责任的方式之一。近年来我国政府相继出台了一系列推进强制性环境责任保险制度发展的规定,为制度构建奠定了政策基础。2014年4月24日新修订的《环境保护法》第52条明确规定国家鼓励投保环境强制责任保险,为制度构建提供了法律依据。我国在船舶油污损害强制责任保险和交强险方面的立法和实践可以为制度构建提供参考,同时在保险模式选择上可以借鉴西方国家成熟的环境责任保险制度。     

The evolving nature of the college wage premium

Focusing on the signaling aspect of education, we show that the college wage premium can be U-shaped in the share of the population with a college degree. This prediction is consistent with empirical evidence from a range of countries. Moreover, the equilibrium in our model is unique, which means that we are able to generate empirically-testable predictions linking income inequality and the premium enjoyed by the college educated. Consequently, our model provides a framework for future empirical studies.     

A novel measure of liquidity premium: application to the Korean stock market

This study proposes a novel measure for an asset’s liquidity premium. Applying Brownian first-passage time distribution properties, we derive an explicit form of liquidity premium embedded in the asset price. Our liquidity premium measure is intuitive because it assesses the extent to which the value of the asset should be increased from the current market price if investors were allowed to retain the asset until they achieve an investment goal. This measure is readily available for assessing an asset’s liquidity because it does not require information on the asset’s transactional characteristics. Our empirical experiment using Korean stock market data suggests that the liquidity premium in this study is inversely related to Amihud’s (2002) illiquidity ratio, which is commonly used to measure stocks’ illiquidity.     

The validity of the contingent valuation method: Perfect and regular embedding

This article deals with one aspect of the validity claim of the contingent valuation method, namely: to what extent does the method produce different values in situations for which economic theory claims different values. Two aspects of this validity test — perfect and regular embedding — were tested in a field experiment comprising six samples of the Dutch population. Perfect embedding occurs when the value for a specific good is similar to the value for a more inclusive good. Perfect embedding did not manifest itself in the experiment. Respondents considered a package of six goods as well as a package of two goods more valuable than one of these goods. It is argued that this supportive evidence of the method's validity claim occurred because the goods involved were well-defined. Regular embedding occurs when the same good receives a lower value if the value for it is inferred from the value for a more inclusive good rather than if that good is valued on its own. Regular embedding was only found when respondents were given the opportunity to value the inclusive good before valuing the specific good. Respondents who were given information on the inclusive good without valuing it did not state different values than respondents who were not given that information. It seems that respondents perceive an inclusive good as being relevant to their valuation decision only when they are asked to value it. Further research is necessary to shed more light on the underlying processes that may account for this.     

The role of peer imitation in agricultural index insurance adoption: Findings from lab-in-the-field experiments in Kyrgyzstan

Frequent climate shocks require farmers in developing countries to increase their resilience. Although index insurance is often discussed as a promising climate adaptation strategy, take-up rates are still low. This study primarily explores the role of peer behavior as peer imitation in the demand for three marketable and unsubsidized crop index insurance options. Furthermore, the influence of trust and understanding is investigated. We collected data in lab-in-the-field experiments among farmers in Kyrgyzstan, where index insurance is planned for imminent implementation. Applying ordered logit estimations, our results show significant and strong peer imitation effects. Imitation attitudes decrease with own insurance experience and received insurance payouts, but intensify with peer size, insurance trust and practical insurance understanding. While trust robustly increases index insurance adoption, understanding effects only gain significance in the dynamic perspective. These findings underline the importance of community-based extension treatments and trust toward the uptake of innovative agricultural technologies in the first steps of dissemination.     

Regulatory disclosure via the internet: does it make financial markets more efficient?

In line with the regulatory framework of the majority of the European capital markets, the Portuguese Securities Market Commission imposes to security issuers the disclosure of any event that could influence share prices in a material way. These events are classified as “Price Sensitive Events”. Through the analysis of market reaction to this kind of event, this study attempts to assess the appropriateness of this disclosure rule. Additionally, since the regulator defines its website as the appropriate manner to disseminate this publishable information through the market, we will also be providing evidence about the efficiency of this system.