Determinants of firms’ investment behaviour: a multilevel approach

This article investigates the determinants of firms’ investment behaviour using firm data from 101 developing and emerging economies. A substantial number of firms does not invest in fixed capital or invests little relative to sales revenue. Using a multilevel probit model we study what factors trigger investment, and using a multilevel Heckman selection model we study what factors influence a firm’s investment-to-sales ratio. We find that firms’ investment behaviour has relatively little dependency on a country’s macroeconomic setting. Additionally, we find that, on average, firms that are completely foreign-owned have a relatively lower investment-to-sales ratio. Finally, we find evidence which suggests that the probability of investing is higher for firms located in countries with more control of corruption and we find some evidence which suggests that partially foreign-owned firms located in countries with relatively less corruption have a relatively higher investment-to-sales ratio.     

Voluntary zero-dividend paying firms: characteristics and performance

We investigate the characteristics of ‘voluntary zero dividend paying’ firms and their subsequent performance. We define NDR_HP (no dividends or repurchases, with high profitability) firms as those with profits above the industry median and yet pay out zero dividends (including share repurchases). Signalling, agency, residual dividend, and life cycle theories explain firm characteristics and dividend payouts, to which we add the novel variables CEO overconfidence and market competition. We discover that growth opportunity, capital expenditure, and CEO overconfidence are positively related to NDR_HP. In addition, we find that the NDR_HP group outperforms all other groups in terms of future performance.     

High-speed rail,tourist mobility,and firm value

Infrastructure is critical to the development of the tourism industry. Although high-speed rail (HSR) is an important component of transportation infrastructure and may reshape tourism activities, little attention has been paid on the impact of HSR on tourism firms’ value. We use a natural quasi-experimental of Chinese cities connected to HSR and difference-in-differences (DID) estimation to show that: (1) HSR substantially increases tourism firms’ value. (2) We introduce dynamic DID and placebo test to further establish causality. (3) A plausible mechanism driving our finding is the tourist mobility with HSR. (4) Our findings are particularly pronounced for small firms and offer theoretical and practical implications to understand tourist mobility and tourism firm value.     

高铁开通对企业创新的影响——基于上市公司微观数据的实证分析

基于微观经济理论的视角,本文考察了高铁开通对企业创新的影响.研究发现:高铁开通提高了企业的创新水平.进一步研究发现高铁开通主要通过减少信息不对称、缓解融资约束以及促进竞争三条途径促进创新.此外,高铁开通对非国有企业和交流密集型企业的创新影响更加显著.结合本文的研究结果,各级政府部门应该积极地改善企业创新的时空环境,提升...     

Has the ECB’s monetary policy prompted companies to invest,or pay dividends?

This paper focuses on the influence of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policies on non-financial firms. It sheds light on non-financial firms’ decisions regarding leverage, and on how the ECB’s conventional and unconventional policies may have affected them. The paper also examines how these policies influenced non-financial firms’ decisions on capital allocation – primarily capital spending and shareholder distribution (for example, dividends and share repurchases). We use an exhaustive and unique dataset comprised of income statements and balance sheets of leading non-financial firms operating in the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). The main results suggest that ECB’s monetary policies have encouraged firms to raise their debt burden, especially after the global recession of 2008. Finally, the ECB’s policies, especially after 2011, also seem to have led non-financial firms to allocate more resources not just to capital spending but to shareholder distribution as well.     

Dividend policy and investor pressure

The economics of dividend policy has focused on the single tight narrative that dividends keep managers honest, mitigating concerns that they over-invest. This article provides a critique of that agency narrative, arguing that pressure from short-term focused investors, executives and board members pushes the firm into preemptive actions of returning too much cash via dividends. We analyze three channels of influence for investor pressure through 1) threat of takeovers, 2) shareholder value oriented corporate governance, measured by director independence and board equity incentives, and 3) trading and institutional ownership patterns. We find that firms adopt a higher dividend payout to discourage takeover bids. Also, FTSE 100 firms, that are most focused on shareholder value governance in the form of equity-based compensation and a higher share of independent directors, display a higher dividend payout. Frequency of trading and ownership by transient investors seeking current profits also predict increased dividend payout. Traditional agency theory, focused on dividends as a tool for managerial discipline, is not strongly supported by the results, which rather support a narrative of short-term investor pressure on firms irrespective of investment opportunities.     

The effect of managerial ability on dividend policy: how do talented managers view dividend payouts?

We contribute to the literature on dividend policy by relaxing Miller and Modigliani’s (1961) perfect capital market assumptions and incorporating a factor that has not been investigated before, that is, variation in managerial ability. Based on more than 24 000 observations across over 20 years (1989–2011), our results show that firms with more talented executives are more likely to pay dividends and, among firms that pay dividends, pay significantly larger dividends. A rise in managerial ability by one SD raises the propensity to pay dividends by 27% and, for firms that pay dividends, increases dividend payouts by 29%. Our results are consistent with the notion that talented managers, confident in their ability to keep the firm profitable, are more willing to pay larger dividends because they are less concerned about having to reduce dividends in the future. Further analysis shows that our results are not likely vulnerable to endogeneity.     

Do corporate governance mechanisms affect cash dividends? An empirical investigation of UK firms

The study examines whether corporate governance mechanisms and the compliance with good governance practice are related to cash dividends. In particular, the study assesses the effect of institutional ownership and board structure on the decision to pay cash dividends. A study on UK firms is interesting because firms are expected to voluntarily structure governance mechanisms based on their own needs. We find that institutional owners positively affect cash dividend payments, suggesting that UK institutions are effective in forcing firms to disgorge cash. There is limited evidence that independent directors affect the cash dividends. The results also show that firm specifics affect the cash dividends, namely, business risk, firm size, and leverage ratio. The results are consistent across several robustness checks.     

Taxation and the stock market valuation of capital gains and dividends: Theory and emphirical results

Dividends seem to be more heavily taxed than capital gains. Why then do corporations pay dividends rather than repurchasing shares or retaining earnings? Either corporations are not acting in the interests of shareholders, or else shareholders desire dividends sufficiently for nontax reasons to offset the tax effect.In this paper, we measure the relative valuation of dividends and capital gains in the stock market, using a variant of the capital asset pricing model. We find that dividends are not valued differently systematically from capital gains. This finding is consistent with share price maximization by firms but inconsistent with the fact that most shareholderspay a heavier tax on dividends.We also show that the relative value of dividends provides an indirect measure of a marginal Tobin's q. The measured value of dividends relative to capital gains tends to be higher during prosperous periods, as is consistent with this interpretation. We hope that this time series on a marginal Tobin's q will prove to be useful in forecasting the rate of investment.     

Exploring the causal effect of religious piety on dividend policy: evidence from historical religious identification

Theory suggests that religious piety is associated with greater risk aversion and more conservative financial policies. Returns to shareholders through dividends are much more certain than returns through capital gains expected to be realized far into the future. We hypothesize that religious piety leads to a higher likelihood of dividend payments. We exploit the variation in religious piety across the US counties and estimate the effect of religion on dividend policy. To draw a causal inference, we use historical religious piety in 1971 as the instrument. Our two-stage least squares results confirm that religious piety induces firms to pay larger dividends.     

Impact of regional interactions on China’s trade performance: evidence from a spatial econometric approach

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we examine the impact of regional interactions on China’s trade performance as supported by infrastructure development, using exports and imports of Chinese-owned and foreign-owned firms disaggregated for 28 provinces. Taking into account the disparities in the regional economic activities, we use five spatial weight matrices in a spatial panel lag and spatial panel error frameworks in the period 1996–2016. The spherical distance and the gasoline usage weight matrices measure the impact of ground connections on China’s trade flows. The nautical miles and the river distance weight matrices measure the impact of maritime and river connections on trade flows for provinces along the sea coast, in the Yangtze valley, and along Zhu river, respectively. We find significant cross border effects on provincial trade flows. The effects vary between areas and firms. Overall, our findings show positive influence of regional interactions on China’s international trade performance.     

Cartels in the unidirectional Hotelling model

We study the impact of space on perfect collusion sustainability within the unidirectional Hotelling model where the firms are constrained to move to the left. We obtain that when the firm that located to the left of the Hotelling segment has the greater incentive to deviate, the distance between the firms has a negative impact on the capability of the firms to sustain the collusion in equilibrium. On the other hand, when the firm that located to the right has the greater incentive to deviate, greater spatial distance makes the collusion easier to sustain in equilibrium. These results substantially differ from the bidirectional Hotelling model.     

Interregional infrastructure,competition for capital,and local public expenditure policies: Evidence from China's high-speed rail network

Interregional infrastructure promotes market integration and enhances the mobility of capital, thereby intensifying fiscal competition among local governments. Exploiting the expansion of China's high-speed rail (HSR) network as plausibly exogenous shocks, this study examines how Interregional infrastructure affects the fiscal competition among local governments. We find that after connecting with the HSR network, city governments tend to dedicate a lower proportion of public spending to consumption goods, which benefit immobile households, and invest more in productive inputs, which attract mobile firms. We also find that the negative effect of HSR connection on the proportion of consumption goods is more pronounced in peripheral cities than core cities because periphery cities face a larger increase in capital mobility due to the core–periphery effects of trade integration induced by HSR. Our findings indicate that the behavioural responses of local governments should be accounted for when assessing the social welfare of interregional infrastructure.     

Understanding co-operative innovative activity: evidence from four European countries

We investigate co-operative innovative activity in four major European countries, France, Germany, Spain and the UK, using internationally comparable firm-level data for manufacturing and service sectors. We examine the roles of knowledge flows, cost- and risk-sharing and public financial support in firms’ decisions to collaborate. Our results suggest that firms which place greater value on external information flows are more likely to co-operate with the research base than with other firms and that firms facing appropriability problems are more likely to co-operate with the research base and with upstream and downstream firms than with direct competitors. We find evidence for Spain to suggest that firms collaborate to overcome risks and financial constraints. We also find that receipt of public support is positively related to undertaking collaborative innovation. In line with the focus of policy, this relationship is strongest for co-operation with the research base.     

Corporate governance and dividend pay-out policy in Germany

A new explanation of why dividends may be informative is put forward in this paper. We find evidence that dividends signal the severity of the conflict between the large, controlling owner and small, outside shareholders. Accordingly, dividend change announcements provide new information about this conflict. To test the rent extraction hypothesis and discriminate it from the cash flow signaling explanation, we utilize information on the ownership and control structure of the firm. We analyze 736 dividend change announcements in Germany over the period 1992-1998 and find significantly larger negative wealth effects in the order of two percentage points for companies where the ownership and control structure makes the expropriation of minority shareholders more likely than for other firms. The rent extraction hypothesis also has implications for the levels of dividends paid. We find larger holdings of the largest owner to reduce, while larger holdings of the second largest shareholder to increase the dividend pay-out ratio. Deviations from the one-share-one-vote rule due to pyramidal and cross-ownership structures are also associated with larger negative wealth effects and lower pay-out ratios. Finally, using Lintner's (American Economic Review 46 (2) (1956) 97-113) model of dividend determination we find corroborating results. The presence of a second largest shareholder with a considerable equity stake makes a crucial difference in the governance of the firm. Our results call for better minority shareholder rights protection and increased transparency in the course of European Capital Market Reform.     

Transparency in the Foreign Exchange Market and the Volume of International Trade

In this paper we study the impact of more transparency in the foreign exchange market on the ex ante expected volume of international trade. Transparency is measured by the informational content of publicly observable signals. These signals convey information about the use of policy instruments which affect the future exchange rate. We find that a higher level of transparency may increase or decrease the volume of international trade. In particular, the impact of greater transparency depends on the curvature of the firms’ marginal cost function. Furthermore, the firms’ex ante expected profits are higher when the foreign exchange market is more transparent.     

Firm-specific information and explicit collusion in experimental oligopolies

We experimentally study the effect of information about competitors’ actions on cartel stability and firms’ incentives to form cartels in Cournot markets. As in previous experiments, markets become very competitive when individualized information is available and participants cannot communicate. In contrast, when communication is possible, results reverse: markets become less competitive and cartels become more stable when individualized information is available. We also observe that the extra profits that firms obtain thanks to the possibility to communicate are higher when individualized information is present, suggesting that firms have greater incentives to form cartels in that situation.     

Reducing agency conflicts through bank dividend payout decisions: the role of opacity and ownership structure

We empirically examine whether banks’ dividend decisions are influenced by their degree of opacity and ownership structure. We find that banks with concentrated ownership structure pay lower dividends when they have high degrees of opacity, in line with the hypothesis that majority shareholders pay lower dividends to extract higher levels of private benefits. We do not observe such expropriation behaviour from managers in widely held banks. Further analysis shows that higher levels of shareholder protection and stronger supervisory regimes help to constrain opportunistic behaviour of majority shareholders. Our findings have critical policy implications for the Basel 3 implementation of restrictions on dividend payouts.     

Executive shareholding,compensation, and analyst forecast of Chinese firms

We examine the impact of executive and leadership shareholding and cash compensation on analyst forecast error and dispersion as proxies for information asymmetry. We find that firms pay higher compensation (or excess compensation) to executives and directors are associated with higher information asymmetry. The positive association is stronger where executives’ and directors’ shareholdings are higher. Shareholding appears to facilitate managerial entrenchment and gives highly paid executives/leadership stronger structural power which adversely affects information disclosure leading to larger forecast error and dispersion. These results are robust to different measures of compensation and alternative models controlling for the predictability of firm-level earnings. Our findings indicate that executive/director shareholding and compensation do not provide sufficient incentives for information disclosure by Chinese firms.     

Is high-speed rail heading towards a low-carbon industry? Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China

Existing studies have investigated the environmental dividends of substituting high-speed rail (HSR) for other energy-intensive vehicles from an engineering standpoint, but they have yet to explore the economic effects of HSR and the associated carbon emissions reduction benefits. To fill the research gap, we use panel data from 285 Chinese cities between 2004 and 2014, and employ a spatial difference-in-differences model to empirically examine the impact of HSR opening on industrial CO₂ emissions. After controlling for spillover effects from neighboring HSR cities, our results show that cities offering HSR services significantly reduce their own industrial CO₂ emissions. This finding is robust and is unaffected by outliers, control group selection, time trends, geography and expectation factors, or endogeneity. The mechanism test reveals that the structural transformation effect, technological innovation effect, and investment attractiveness effect are three intermediate influence channels. Further research finds that the emissions reduction benefit increases as the spatial and temporal intensities of HSR openings ascend the ladder, and HSR services have a spillover effect within a 300-kilometer radius. Moreover, the carbon benefit of China’s HSR far surpasses its carbon footprint, indicating that China’s HSR is green after accounting for economic emissions reductions that were often neglected in prior research. Based on these findings, we recommend that China accelerate HSR expansion in order to reduce carbon emissions in a scientific and responsible manner.