Estimating dynamic demand for airlines

This paper uses an original panel dataset with posted prices and sales to estimate a dynamic demand. We find that consumers become more price sensitive as time to departure nears which is consistent with having lower valuations. This result provides empirical support to a key theoretical implication in Deneckere and Peck (2012)—high-valuation consumers purchase earlier. We also find that the number of active consumers increases closer to departure.     

Estimating money demand functions for South Asian countries

In this paper, we estimate a money demand function for a panel of five South Asian countries. We find that the money demand and its determinants, namely real income, real exchange rate and short-term domestic and foreign interest rates are cointegrated both for individual countries as well as for the panel, and panel long-run elasticities provide robust evidence of statistically significant relationships between money demand and its determinants. Our test for panel Granger causality suggests short-run causality running from all variables, except foreign interest rate, to money demand, and we find evidence that except for Nepal money demand functions are stable.      

Estimating consumer demand in Korea

In this paper, time series annual data on five consumer goods for Korea are analyzed using the neoclassical model of consumer behavior. The approach taken is the indirect utility function and employs a translog form. Various restrictive specifications of consumer preferences with respect to homotheticity and separability are examined and rejected by the likelihood ratio test. Income and price elasticities are estimated, which appear to be generally high relative to those of developed countries. Growth in real income is primarily responsible for changes in commodity demand. Marginal utilities of income and associated income elasticities are calculated, which are consistent with normal expectations.     

Dynamic analysis of British demand for tourism abroad

This paper investigates how preference endogeneity, in the form of habit persistence, can affect short-run and long-run tourism expenditure decisions. The proposed model is applied to British quarterly data over the period 1979–91 and the empirical results suggest that preference endogeneity appears to have an important effect. This has policy implications for countries competing for British tourist arrivals. The differences between the short-run and long-run price and budget elasticities which are implied by habit persistence are also investigated.     

Estimating anticipated and nonanticipated demand elasticities for cigarettes in Spain

This paper will test whether tobacco consumption generates addiction in Spanish people. If this is the case, can such addiction be explained in the context of rational addiction theory? Elasticities are also obtained in the cases where price variations can be anticipated or, by contrast, where they cannot. The results first reveal the addictive and rational character of Spanish tobacco consumption. With respect to estimated demand elasticities, we find the expected results, namely that the anticipated values are higher than the nonanticipated values and that the long-run effects are also higher than the short-run effects.     

An almost ideal demand system for alcoholic beverages in British Columbia

An almost ideal demand system for alcoholic beverages in British Columbia is estimated based on five beverage categories. Estimates of the model unrestricted and restricted to satisfy homogeneity and symmetry are presented. The restrictions are tested: as is common in applied demand analysis a number of rejections are encountered, although within-equation tests tend to support homogeneity. The rejections which are encountered are not mitigated by the inclusion of dynamic elements. The Slutsky matrix is used to examine the concavity of the expenditure function, which is found to be mildly violated. Marshallian and Hicksian own-, cross-price, and income elasticities are calculated and are found to be largely consistent with previous findings, although some noteworthy results are obtained.     

Estimating demand curve in the Korean VoIP telecommunications market

The VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol) market in Korea is showing rapid growth since domestic carriers initiated the service in 2006. These carriers are now seeking new revenue sources from various convergence services and are increasing investment into VoIP. In particular, local exchange carriers (LECs), formerly reluctant to invest in technologies that would cannibalize their local telephone revenue, have started to invest in VoIP, in recognition of the current convergence of media and the telecommunications industry, as well as in the face of intensifying competition. In this study, we determined that VoIP call rates and landline telephony call rates were the most important factors affecting VoIP call demand, in addition to network externality. We also verified that landline telephony is no longer a supplement to VoIP, but rather, a substitute that has considerable influence on VoIP call demand. Empirical evidence is expected to be considered in policy decision making on current issues in the IT industry, such as access prices or competitiveness assessment. The current empirical analysis on the Korean VoIP industry and the adherence to lessons learned from policy enforcement should provide valuable information to countries seeking to develop their own VoIP industries, as well as to businesses developing new strategies based on the VoIP market.     

Our fans in the north: the demand for British Rugby League

This paper reports the results of estimating a single equation model of an attendance function for British Rugby League over the seasons 1982/83 to 1990/91. The data are panel data covering virtually every team which played in the two division league over the nine year time period. Diagnostic tests indicate that the appropriate model is a semilog random effects model, where the dependent variable is league attendance weighted by population. The major results are as follows: there are significant positive relationships between league attendance and various measures of team success (although the direction of causality is moot), team quality (as proxied by the two divisions) and the economic quality of team location (as proxied by the unemployment rate); but there is no discernible relationship between league attendance and either success in nonleague trophy competitions or measures of exceptional player quality.     

Estimating the Markov-switching almost ideal demand systems: a Bayesian approach

Allias and Nichèle (Eur Rev Agric Econ, 34(4):517–538, 2007) proposed a Markov-switching almost ideal demand system (MS-AIDS) model by extending the idea of Hamilton (Econometrica, 57(2):357–384, 1989). In this paper, we propose a Bayesian estimation for MS-AIDS model and illustrate applicability of our proposed method. We then run two sets of simulation studies to confirm the validity of the proposed method. In the empirical study on the Japanese meat market, our Bayesian estimation improves the MSEs for all meat products over the ML estimation, while successfully capturing the regime shifts of meat demand coinciding with the timing of bovine spongiform encephalopathy cases in Japan and US.     

Estimating endogenous switching regression model with a flexible parametric distribution function: application to Korean housing demand

This study introduces Johnson's S_U -normal distribution which can accommodate the flexibility of true error distribution to obtain consistent estimates in an endogenous switching regression model. Simulation results indicate that the S_U -normal model outperforms the normal model for the consistency of estimators when the error distribution is nonnormal. Korean housing demand model estimated by the S_U -normal model also outperforms the normal model in terms of parameter estimates and graphical predictions.     

On the demand for information

Most previous research on the economics of information has been based on the expected utility hypothesis and Bayesian learning. Yet there is experimental evidence that decision makers do not always maximize expected utility and that human learning is not always consistent with Bayes' rule. Using a two-period model, this paper examines the valuation of information as well as the demanf for information in the broader context of a state preference approach under an ordinal representation of preferences. In particular, it is not assumed that the decision maker is Bayesian, nor that he behaves in a way consistent with the expected utility hypothesis. In this general framework, the value of information is defined and analysed. Also, under active learning, the optimal allocation of information gathering activities is discussed. Behavioural properties of the demand for information are derived making use of a compensation function. Implications of the results for measuring the value of information and for the economic analysis of learning activities are discussed.     

Consumer demand for local honey

How to best target and attract niche market consumers is an important marketing problem for producers of specialty agricultural products. It is particularly an issue in the honey market where consumers increasingly face media messages regarding threats to honey bee health, honey adulteration and health benefits of locally produced honey. Using auction experiments, this research evaluates consumer behaviour related to informational messages about honey that is produced locally, domestically and internationally. Results from 115 adult consumers show that consumers’ demand for honey varies significantly based on the geographic location of the honey’s production, product packaging and the information they have about the product. Consumers demonstrate greater demand for locally produced honey, especially when provided information about negative aspects of internationally produced honey that include adulteration. This shows that such negative media attention on specialty products offers small producers an opportunity to increase profitability by marketing themselves as a specialized niche alternative.     

The UK demand for steel

The paper suggests a short-run model of the demand for steel that may be used for forecasting future trends. The paper commences with consideration of a long-run model which is estimated using cointegration analysis. An error correction model is then developed to depict the short-run movements to equilibrium. This can be used for the purpose of ex-post forecasting.     

Cash-on-hand and demand for credit

Subprime consumers often use small-dollar credit products, such as payday loans, to meet short-term financial needs over pay cycles. However, relatively little is known about the income sensitivity of demand for credit in this market. This paper provides a causal estimate of the effect of tax rebates on the demand for small-dollar credit, using a unique proprietary loan-level dataset. Identification relies on variation in state Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) generosity for areas within the same commuting zones that span state borders. The results show that a $100 increase in EITC benefits leads to an 8.3% reduction in the number of loan applications and a 6.6% reduction in the number of borrowers. This could translate into sizable reductions in loan volume and savings in financial charges. More broadly, the results suggest that public programs with income benefits could help recipients with consumption smoothing in the presence of credit market frictions.     

The demand for casino gaming

In this study an econometric model is developed to examine the determinants of the demand for casino gaming, specifically the demand for slot machine wagering at riverboats and racinos. In addition to examining the effects of traditional demand variables, the effect on wagering of variables such as location of a wagering facility and of government restrictions, is examined. A unique measure of accessibility of market area customers to a facility and to competing facilities was developed. The demand for wagering at a facility was found to increase as access by customers in its market area increases and to decrease as access by its customers to competing riverboats, racinos or Indian casinos increases. Government restrictions were found to have an adverse effect on wagering at a riverboat. On the other hand, wagering at a riverboat was found to increase when such restrictions were imposed on competing riverboats. The presence of total loss limits and restrictions on boarding times at a riverboat were found to have reduced wagering by 36% and 35%, respectively. With respect to traditional demand variables, slot machine wagering demand was found to be price elastic at the beginning of the sample period declining to slightly below unit elasticity by the end of the period. Table games offered at a gaming facility were found to be substitutes for slot machines. Demand was found to be negatively related to per capita income at lower income levels and positively related at higher income levels. The proportion of income wagered was found to be greater at upper and lower income levels relative to middle income levels. Demand was found to be positively related to days of operation and number of slot machines.     

The demand for money in Austria

In this paper, the demand for real money M1, M2, and M3 is estimated for Austria over the time period 1965–96. The modelling takes place within the framework of a small vector autoregression. To estimate the demand for money, two-equation error-correction models are constructed, which contain the short-run dynamics and the long-run economic equilibrium. It is found that a stable money demand exists for all monetary aggregates. The long-run equilibrium of M1, after accounting for a structural break in 1979, can be characterised as a classical type of money demand, with no interest rate effects and an elasticity of one for real GDP. In the case of M2 and M3, we find a unit coefficient on income and a significantly negative influence of a long-term interest rate. The statistical properties of the estimated short-run money demand equations – considering in-sample and out-of-sample tests – are generally very good. First version received: October 1996/Final version received: April 2000