Can I live with you after I retire? Retirement,old age support and internal migration in a developing country

This study provides causal evidence on the impact of retirement on internal migration in a developing country. Using a fuzzy regression discontinuity design, combined with a nationally representative sample of 228,855 older Chinese adults, we find that retirement leads to an increase in the probability of being a migrant by 12.9 percentage points (an 80% increase in migration). Approximately 38% of the total migration effects can be attributed to intertemporal shifts. The impact is more pronounced for the lower-educated, those who have restricted access to health insurance and pension and those who come from origins with high accommodation costs. Relying on old age support from adult children in migration is a likely mechanism. Lifting migration restrictions and improving government-provided benefits for retirees could be helpful to cope with population aging in a developing country.     

The international spillover of china’s monetary policy: a case study of a developing country

This paper aimed to investigate the evidence on the transmission of China’s monetary policy shocks to macroeconomic variables in Iran. Since 1990, China has become one of the main trading partners of Iran; therefore, it is expected that China’s macroeconomic shocks have some consequences on Iran’s Economy. In this study, a structural vector autoregressive model is used to explore such a transmission. The findings of the study reveal that the China’s monetary policy changes significantly affect the Consumer Price Index (CPI) as Iran’s CPI meaningfully increases with the expansion of China’s money supply. Furthermore, it was found that Iran’s other economic variables, including the real GDP, real effective exchange rate, and interest rate, do not significantly reflect the China’s monetary shocks; even though confirm the expected sign and direction.     

The determinants of cybersecurity risk disclosure in firms’ financial reporting: Empirical evidence

This paper examines the relationship between cybersecurity risk disclosure and financial reporting deficiencies. Using a difference-in-difference approach based on a large, matched sample of breached and non-breached US firms for the period 2006 to 2016, a differential effect is seen between cybersecurity risk disclosures in pre- and post-Breach financial reporting related to cybersecurity incidents. The association between the cybersecurity risk disclosure and subsequent reported financial deficiencies is positive and significant, providing some evidence for regulators that more firm-specific disclosure may provide increased audit quality, to which the auditor responds by increasing audit effort. The empirical findings suggest that firms with prior cybersecurity risk disclosures are more likely to experience financial reporting deficiencies. The results obtained are robust to a variety of sensitivity checks.     

The biological standard of living and body height in colonial and post-colonial Indonesia, 1770–2000

How did the biological standard of living develop in Indonesia during colonial times? Did it increase substantially after decolonization? In our study, we use four sets of anthropometric data to construct time series of average human height since the 1770s. The paper observes a significant decline in heights in the 1870s, followed by only modest recovery during the next three decades, both of which are related to a sequence of disasters. Average heights increased from the 1900s and accelerated after World War II. The World Economic Crisis, the Japanese occupation and the war of independence in the 1930s and 1940s constituted a difficult period. Average height growth thereafter is related to improvements in food supply and the disease environment, particularly hygiene and medical care.     

Optimistic income expectations and meeting those expectations: What matters for well-being in a developing country?

This paper examines the impact of income expectations and the extent to which these expectations are met, on subjective well-being. For the Indonesian sample, expectations had asymmetric effects on well-being, with pessimistic expectations having a strong adverse effect compared with a weak positive effect of optimism. Optimism improves only females' and not males' well-being while pessimism has the reverse effect on both genders' well-being. Although unmet expectations reduced well-being for all subgroups, the mediating role of social capital to negate this was limited to some subgroups. Results point toward a gendered policy agenda and the rural–urban divide to improve well-being.     

The ‘Home Grown’ Presidency: empirical evidence on localism in presidential voting, 1972–2000

This builds upon the conceptual framework of Lewis-Beck and Rice (American Journal of Political Science, 27, 548–56, 1983), in combination with the empirical design of Kjar and Laband (Public Choice, 112, 143–50, 2002), to investigate home grown-ness in US presidential elections from 1972–2000. It found that, ceteris paribus, home state vote shares for US Presidential election winners are 5.19–15.11 percentage points higher due to the home grown-ness effect. In the eight presidential elections analysed, this study confirms two aspects of prior work. First, the estimate of a home grown-ness effect in presidential elections of 5.19 percentage points (on average), supports the 4 percentage point average found by Lewis-Beck and Rice (1983 Lewis-Beck, MS and Rice, TW. 1983. Localism in presidential elections: the home state advantage. American Journal of Political Science, 27: 548–56.  ). Second, that support for the winning president monotonically increases as moves are made away from the opponent's home territory confirms the cascading dummy variable series approach developed by Kjar and Laband (2002 Kjar, SA and Laband, DN. 2002. On ‘home grown-ness’ in politics: evidence from the 1998 election for Alabama's Third Congressional district. Public Choice, 112: 143–50.  ).     

The effect of financial development on economic growth: evidence from the APEC countries, 1981–2000

Using the modified growth model, this study examines whether financial development would facilitate economic growth among the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) countries from 1981 to 2000. It focuses on the effects of three aspects of financial development on growth: stock market, banking sector and capital flow. To control for the country-specific effect, the model is further estimated for the developed and developing member countries. Results suggest that among the three financial sectors, only the stock market development shows strong growth-enhancing effect, especially among the developed member countries. This positive relationship remains very robust even after controlling for the simultaneity bias. Thus, there is no evidence to suggest that the level of financial infrastructure development does affect the overall finance–growth relationship observed in this study.     

The determinants of production-related carbon emissions in West Germany, 1985–1990: assessing the role of technology and trade

This paper examines the determinants of the substantial decline of West German production-related carbon intensity in the face of falling energy prices. A computable general equilibrium model is used to determine the simulated effects of observed changes of world energy prices and domestic energy policy on the sectoral patterns of carbon emissions, energy consumption, output, value-added and other indicators of structural change. The structural changes not accounted for by energy prices and energy policy are attributed to changing patterns of productivity growth in Germany and the rest of the world (ROW) and changing patterns of ROW demand. Weights on these driving forces are selected by least squares. One key finding is that the contribution of ROW productivity and demand patterns to emission-relevant structural change unaccounted for by energy prices and energy policy is just under 30%. The remainder is split almost equally among patterns of domestic autonomous energy efficiency improvement and domestic labor efficiency patterns.     

Patterns and determinants of skilled workers’ mobility: evidence from a survey of Italian inventors

Skilled workers’ mobility is considered to be one of the most influential channels of knowledge transmission. This has increased the interest of researchers and policy makers because of its implications for innovation diffusion and, consequently, economic welfare. However, little is still known about the determinants of this phenomenon.

This paper explores the mobility patterns for a group of Italian inventors in the pharmaceutical sector. It addresses methodological issues related to measures of inventors’ mobility through patent statistics and examines the determinants of their mobility choices.

The empirical results indicate that career paths of inventors are rarely reflected in their patenting activity and that using patent statistics frequently underestimates the intensity of the mobility phenomenon. The results also show a positive association between productivity and mobility. In particular, the econometric analysis points out that inventor's personal characteristics, inventive productivity, and geographical location matter for mobility choices.     

The long-run determinants of fertility: one century of demographic change 1900–1999

We examine the long-run relationship between fertility, mortality, and income using panel cointegration techniques and the available data for the last century. Our main result is that mortality changes and growth of income contributed to the fertility transition. The fertility reduction triggered by falling mortality, however, is not enough to overcompensate the positive effect of falling mortality on population growth. This means that growth of income per capita is essential to explain the observed secular decline of population growth. These results are robust to alternative estimation methods, potential outliers, sample selection, different measures of mortality, the sample period, the inclusion of education as an explanatory variable, and the use of different data sets. In addition, our causality tests suggest that fertility changes are both cause and consequence of economic development.     

Male versus female guest-worker migration: Does it matter for fertility in the source country?

Men’s additional income from their guest-worker employment generates a pure income effect, which increases fertility. The timing of women’s higher-wage employment relative to child bearing is crucial for its effect on fertility. If women work abroad during the same time period when they can bear children, their additional income generates a substitution effect, which reduces fertility. In contrast, if the time period when women work abroad does not coincide with the period when they bear children, their additional income generates the income effect on fertility, which is not different from that of men’s additional income.     

The internal and external equilibrium exchange rate of RMB: 1982–2010

This paper estimates fundamental equilibrium exchange rate of RMB based on internal and external balance of China’s economy. The findings indicate that RMB real exchange rate is overvalued in the period of 1982–1991, but the extent of the undervaluation has an enlarging trend since 2004. Then, we put forward a new theory called “Prior Equilibrium Exchange Rate” and apply it to RMB, finding that real effective exchange rate of RMB need to be appreciated about 20% between 2008 and 2010, and the appreciation range of bilateral nominal exchange rate between RMB and the world’s key currencies depends on the objective functions of the government. Policy implication indicates that decision makers need to refer to equilibrium exchange rate which is derived from different theories and to make great efforts to adjust it towards equilibrium level and establish RMB “Prior Equilibrium Exchange Rate.” Meanwhile, policymakers should implement a potential objective interval system of exchange rate appreciation. The appreciation range of bilateral exchange rate of RMB against USD from 2008 to 2010 may be set between 6% to 10%.     

Industrialisation as an engine of growth in developing countries, 1950–2005

This paper examines the emergence of manufacturing in developing countries in the period 1950–2005. It presents new data on structural change in a sample of 67 developing countries and 21 advanced economies. The paper examines the theoretical and empirical evidence for the proposition that industrialisation acts as an engine of growth in developing countries and attempts to quantify different aspects of this debate. The statistical evidence is not completely straightforward. Manufacturing has been important for growth in developing countries, but not all expectations of the ‘engine of growth hypothesis’ are borne out by the data. The more general historical evidence provides more support for the industrialisation thesis.     

The impact of pharmaceutical innovation on longevity and medical expenditure in Sweden, 1997–2010: evidence from longitudinal,disease-level data

We use longitudinal, disease-level data to analyze the impact of pharmaceutical innovation on longevity and medical expenditure in Sweden, where mean age at death increased by 1.88 years during the period 1997–2010. Pharmaceutical innovation is estimated to have increased mean age at death by 0.60 years during the period. The estimates indicate that longevity depends on the number of drugs to treat a disease, not the number of drug classes. Pharmaceutical innovation also reduced hospital utilization; the estimates indicate that an increase in the number of drugs commercialized for a disease reduces the number of hospital days due to the disease 8 years later, primarily due to its effect on the number of hospital discharges. The cost per life-year gained from the introduction of new drugs is estimated to be a small fraction of leading economists’ estimates of the value of a 1-year increase in life expectancy.     

The effect of rural labor migration on poverty alleviation： a viilage-level study in China

The construction of the new socialist countryside is being carried out in China nowadays. Although lots of successful experience has been gotten, different problems occur in various regions yet. To analyze the relationships among rural labor migration, poverty alleviation and characteristics of migrants is important in considering the effect of rural labor migration on the construction of the new. socialist countryside, Available sampling and typical case study are adopted and 236 questionnaires are collected from four villages in northwest GuangxL China, Daxin, Lixin, Longhe and Yongehang, We analyze the rural labor migration status, characteristics of migrants, remittance situation and income, household income and the ratio of remittance income to total household income. About 2/3 of the households have migrants in surveyed villages. And nearly half of the migration households have only one family member as migrants in the four villages. The migrants mainly comprise male and the younger, with the education level of junior middle school and higher More than half of the migrants are employed in Guangdong Province. But the characteristics of migrants in Yongchang are more diverse. The rural labor migration in the village is extremely active and extensive. And over 60% of the household with family members as migrants have remittance income. The rate in Yongchang is extremely high （80%）, And the income of households with migrants getting remittance income is significantly higher than their counterparts. More than half of their income comes from remittance as far as the former kind of household is concerned And in Yongchang, the rate is nearly 80%. The conclusion is that rural labor migration is popular and extensive in lots of villages. And the migration and remittance play an important role in rural household income, especially in some poor villages. For this kind of village, the rural labor migration may be some ＂compulsory course＂ in rural development. And the rural labor emigration is an essential way in     

The determinants of federal and state enforcement of workplace safety regulations: OSHA inspections 1990–2010

We explore the determinants of inspection outcomes across 1.6 million Occupational Safety and Health Agency (OSHA) audits from 1990 through 2010. We find that discretion in enforcement differs in state and federally conducted inspections. State agencies are more sensitive to local economic conditions, finding fewer standard violations and fewer serious violations as unemployment increases. Larger companies receive greater lenience in multiple dimensions. Inspector issued fines and final fines, after negotiated reductions, are both smaller during Republican presidencies. Quantile regression analysis reveals that Presidential and Congressional party affiliations have their greatest impact on the largest negotiated reductions in fines.     

Citizens’ support for inter-municipal cooperation: evidence from a survey in the German state of Hesse

Inter-municipal cooperation (IMC) is often proposed as a politically feasible way by which rural municipalities can cope with intensified interregional competition and demographic change. We provide first evidence on citizens’ support for IMC using survey data from rural Germany. We find little evidence that citizens are more willing to support IMC in munici-palities that can – by the logic of economic theory – expect higher net benefits from IMC. Citizens’ support for IMC is primarily shaped by individual-level factors like the level of education, trust in local politicians and the degree of emotional attachment to the home mu-nicipality. Citizens’ beliefs regarding the economic and political consequences of IMC are found to have the largest marginal effect by far. Regressions predicting interpersonal differ-ences in these beliefs show that these beliefs have to be considered independent drivers of policy preferences. This result suggests that more research is needed to better understand the factors shaping citizens’ understanding of how economic policy works. This lack of under-standing applies to virtually all fields of economic policy.     

Exploring determinants of housing prices: A case study of Chinese experience in 1999–2010

How do macroeconomic variables affect housing prices? In this paper we apply a non-linear modeling approach, the Nonlinear Auto Regressive Moving Average with eXogenous inputs (NARMAX), to investigate determinants of housing prices in China over the period 1999:01 to 2010:06. The NARMAX approach, combined with the famous Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), has an advantage over prevailing methods in that it automatically selects linear and non-linear forms of variables and the numbers of corresponding lags according to statistical properties. Estimation results mainly identify some key monetary and price variables in interpreting housing price dynamics, including most notably mortgage rate, producer price, broad money supply and real effective exchange rate. Meanwhile, real economic variables such as income are not independently significant.     

The demand for broad money in Norway, 1969–1993

Cointegration analysis is applied to investigate the long run relationships between money, prices, and wages in Norway. Broad money is determined endogenously, and monetary balances were exposed to large shocks during the period of financial deregulation in the midst of the 1980s. In the long run these shocks are absorbed, and a long run demand for money relationship is identified in which real money is determined by real income, the relative price on financial assets (the yield spread) and the relative price on goods (the own real interest rate). Money adjusts dynamically to changes in the exchange rate and private wealth. Domestic price inflation is affected by improted inflation including currency depreciation (a pass through effect), domestic cost pressure (unit labour costs), and excess demand in the product market (output gap effect).This paper was presented at the workshop Money Demand in Europe, at the Humboldt University in Berlin, October 10–11, 1997. Thanks to Erik, Biørn, Neil R. Ericsson and Grayham Mizon for their comments on previous versions of the paper and to two anonymous referees and the editors for helpful suggestions.     

Exchange‐rate volatility and US–Hong Kong industry trade: is there evidence of a ‘third country’ effect?

In an effort to better understand the determinants of trade flows worldwide, researchers have recently incorporated external volatility (in addition to that of the partners’ bilateral exchange rate) into their models. The so‐called ‘third country’ effect is present if adding this term changes the bilateral volatility estimates that are found when external volatility is omitted. This study examines US exports to Hong Kong for 143 industries, and imports from Hong Kong for 110 industries, and finds two key results. First, expected inflation due to Hong Kong's dollar peg leads to increased US exports in a large number of industries. Second, comparing our results with those of a previous study shows strong evidence of a ‘third country’ effect, especially for US imports. Nonparametric tests suggest that these effects differ by sector: for both exports and imports. Manufacturing industries that enjoy a large trade share are less likely to experience this effect once external volatility is incorporated into the analysis.