The long-run effect of aid on health: evidence from panel cointegration analysis

Although a major objective of aid donors is to improve health outcomes in recipient countries, there is relatively little research on whether aid to the health sector leads to improved health outcomes, and even less on the impact of total aid. This paper examines the relationship between total aid and population health using panel cointegration and causality techniques designed to deal with problems afflicting previous aid-health studies: spurious regressions, omitted variables, endogeneity, cross-sectional dependence, and parameter heterogeneity. The main results are: (i) aid has, on average, a small but negative long-run effect on health, (ii) while the long-run (or trend) effect of aid on health is negative, the short-run (temporary) effect of aid on health is positive, (iii) causality runs in only one direction, from aid to health, and (iv) aid worsens health mainly in sub-Saharan countries, but has a positive, albeit statistically insignificant, long-run impact on health in Latin American and Caribbean countries and in countries with negative values of net ODA.     

ICT and employment generation: evidence from Turkish manufacturing

This study is said to be the first attempt in exploring the impact of information and communication technologies (ICT) capital on employment generation/destruction in Turkish manufacturing industry by using labour demand estimation framework. The analysis is based on firm-level data, which includes all firms employing 20 or more employees in Turkish manufacturing for the period 2003–2013. Our findings based on system GMM estimations show that ICT has employment-enhancing effects in Turkish manufacturing. Moreover, our results provide the evidence that tangible ICT capital has stronger employment generation impact than that of intangible ICT capital in medium- and low-tech industries.     

Real exchange rates and real interest rates once again: a multivariate panel cointegration analysis

This paper employs multivariate panel cointegration techniques to re-examine the empirical relationship between bilateral real exchange rates and real interest rates. The results from a panel of 1470 quarterly observations on Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, and USA over the period 1977 to 1994 indicate the absence of any long-run relationship between the two variables.     

Trade liberalisation,market competition and wage inequality in China's manufacturing sector

Economic reforms of the late 1980s have contributed to rapid economic growth in China. While the overall standard of living has improved, economic growth has also resulted in an increase in income inequality. Rising income inequality can increase social tensions that can impede further economic growth. By making use of firm level panel data, this paper focuses on the impact of increased market competition and trade liberalisation on skilled–unskilled wage inequality in China's manufacturing sector. A theoretical model is used to argue that trade liberalisation and market competition can affect skilled–unskilled wage inequality. Based on this result, an econometric model is specified. The empirical analysis presented in this paper shows that increased trade liberalisation has contributed to an increase in skilled–unskilled wage inequality in China's manufacturing sector. However, increase in market competition has the opposite effect.     

Inflation and growth: new evidence from a dynamic panel threshold analysis

We introduce a dynamic panel threshold model to estimate inflation thresholds for long-term economic growth. Advancing on Hansen (J Econom 93:345–368, 1999) and Caner and Hansen (Econom Theory 20:813–843, 2004), our model allows the estimation of threshold effects with panel data even in case of endogenous regressors. The empirical analysis is based on a large panel-dataset including 124 countries. For industrialized countries, our results confirm the inflation targets of about 2% set by many central banks. For non-industrialized countries, we estimate that inflation rates exceeding 17% are associated with lower economic growth. Below this threshold, however, the correlation remains insignificant.     

Exploring the finance-real economy link in U.S.: empirical evidence from panel unit root and cointegration analysis

The aim of this article is to analyze the relationships between common shocks affecting the real economy and those underlying co-fluctuations in U.S. financial markets. In order to do this, we test for links between these common factors and also use the econometric theory of non-stationary panel data to estimate the relationships. The estimates prove the existence of significant relationships between financial and macroeconomic factors. It is also shown that there are forces pulling U.S. financial markets to move with the real economy, as seen through nearly instantaneous adjustment to a new equilibrium.     

Interdependence between US and European military spending: a panel cointegration analysis (1988-2013)

The aim of this article is to study the interdependence of military spending between US and a panel of European countries in the period 1988–2013. The empirical estimation is based on a: (1) unit root tests and a cointegration analysis and (2) fully modified ordinary least squares and dynamic ordinary least squares estimations. General results highlight that military spending of European countries is: (1) positively associated with US military spending and (2) negatively associated with average military spending of other European countries.     

Religiosity and income: a panel cointegration and causality analysis

In this article, we examine the long-run relationship between religiosity and income using retrospective data on church attendance rates for a panel of countries from 1930 to 1990. We employ panel cointegration and causality techniques to control for omitted variable and endogeneity bias and test for the direction of causality. We show that there exists a negative long-run relationship between the level of religiosity, measured by church attendance, and the level of income, measured by the log of GDP per capita. The result is robust to alternative estimation methods, potential outliers, different samples, different measures of church attendance and alternative specifications of the income variable. Long-run causality runs in both directions, higher income leads to declining religiosity and declining religiosity leads to higher income.     

Exports, imports, and economic growth in Portugal: evidence from causality and cointegration analysis

This paper investigates the Granger-causality between exports, imports, and economic growth in Portugal over the period 1865–1998. The role of the import variable in the investigation of exports–output causality is emphasized, enabling one to test for the cases direct causality, indirect causality, and spurious causality between export growth and output growth. The empirical results do not confirm a unidirectional causality between the variables considered. There is a feedback effect between exports–output growth and imports–output growth. More interestingly, there is no kind of significant causality between import–export growth. Both results seem to support the conclusion that the growth of output for the Portuguese economy during that period revealed a shape associated with a small dual economy in which the intra-industry transactions were very limited.     

Bid dispersion,competition and wage regulation: some field evidence from public contract bidding in British Columbia

The paper uses data from British Columbia to show that bid dispersion (the difference between the winning and next-lowest bids) in public school construction contract bidding is very compact, and that it varies inversely with the degree of competition. It also examines the impact of the Skill Development and Fair Wage Law (SDFWP), which promulgated wage scales and required contractors to pay them in public construction projects, on the bid dispersion. Multivariate analysis shows that bid dispersion declined after SDFWP. One possible interpretation of this result is that the contractors became less prone to the winner's curse following the SDFWP.     

Energy consumption,employment, output,and temporal causality: evidence from Taiwan based on cointegration and error-correction modelling techniques

In this study, a cointegration analysis and a vector autoregressive model (VAR) are used to examine the causal relationships among energy consumption, employment, and output for Taiwan over the period January 1982 to November 1997. Johansen (1988) and Johansen and Juselius (1990) cointegration test result indicates these three variables are cointegrated with one cointegrating vector. The results from Granger causality tests based on vector error-correction models (VECM) suggest bidirectional Grange causality for employment-output and employment-energy consumption, but only unidirectional causality running from energy consumption to output. Furthermore, the impulse responses and variance decompositions are also incorporated into the analysis. The results from impulsive response and variance decomposition analysis tell similar stories. Energy consumption appears to have led to output growth in Taiwan over this period. The policy implication of this finding is that energy conservation will restrain the output growth in Taiwan.     

Mergers and innovation: evidence from a panel of US firms*

Mergers lead to larger firms and a less competitive market structure, but their effects on innovation are not clear. Mergers may improve innovation incentives by promoting economies of scope and scale, R&D activities, and increasing the ability to deal with uncertainties. However, mergers may also discourage innovation by reducing competition, increasing costs, and decreasing production and R&D efficiencies. In this study, we investigate merger impacts on innovation using a panel data consisting of four different data sets on publicly traded US manufacturing firms from 1980 to 2003. Our proxy for innovation is based on citation-weighted patent stocks. In our estimation model, we control for endogeneity using instrumental variables and factors such as market share, size, industry, and time. We find that mergers are positively and significantly correlated with firms’ innovation. Our findings also indicate that merger effect on innovation is heterogeneous across industries, increases with market share, and is greater in the long run. Our findings are robust to alternative measures of innovation.     

Union bargaining power, employment, and output in a model of monopolistic competition with wage bargaining

This paper examines the implications of a rise in the bargaining power of workers on the real wage, income distribution, and the levels of employment and output using a macroeconomic model with monopolistic competition and worker-owner Nash bargaining at the firm level. It thereby provides optimizing microfoundations to Kalecki's macroeconomic analysis of the positive effect on output of a rise in trade-union power, and contrasts it with the neoclassical view based on the diminishing marginal productivity of labor.     

Revisiting residential demand for electricity in Greece: new evidence from the ARDL approach to cointegration analysis

This article re-examines the long-run and short-run determinants of the aggregate residential demand for electricity in Greece using data spanning the period 1964–2006 and the recently advanced ARDL cointegrating method (Pesaran, J Appl Econ 16:289–326, 2001) that has not been hitherto applied to Greek data. The results of the ARDL method combined with the (Johansen, J Econ Dyn Control 12:231–254, 1988) cointegration method show the presence of an equilibrium relationship among the variables involved. These findings may shed new light on the contemplation of more effective energy policies with respect to electricity.     

Trade openness and child health: a heterogeneous panel cointegration analysis

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we examine the impact of trade openness on child health, based on a cross-country panel data set covering 66 countries for the period 1960–2013. To account for the time-series properties of the data and potential cross-country heterogeneity in the impact of trade openness, the study employs heterogeneous panel cointegration techniques that are robust to omitted variables and endogeneity problems. The results reveal that trade openness and child health are cointegrated, and that trade works to reduce the child mortality rate significantly in the long-run. The results are robust to the methodology and trade openness and child health indicators employed, as well as to the presence of cross-sectional dependence and changes in the sample composition. The findings also suggest that the impact of trade on child health tends to be stronger in countries with better institutional quality, lower corruption, good governance, political stability, and sound policies that promote private sector development.     

The Feldstein-Horioka puzzle in African countries: A panel cointegration analysis

This paper investigates the Feldstein-Horioka coefficients for 37 African countries using the recently developed Pooled Mean Group (PMG), Fully Modified OLS (FMOLS), and Dynamic OLS (DOLS) panel cointegration techniques. The empirical findings reported in this paper reveal that savings and investment are non-stationary and cointegrated series. The estimated coefficients using FMOLS, DOLS, and PMG are 0.38, 0.58, and 0.36, respectively, for the sample as a whole for the period from 1970 to 2006. These results confirm previous studies' findings that capital was relatively mobile in African countries compared to OECD countries. In addition, our study shows that there are marked differences in savings retention coefficients for different country groups in Africa (CFA franc zone and non-CFA franc zone countries, oil-producing and non-oil-producing countries, civil law and common law countries). These results have some policy implications.     

The government spending and private consumption: a panel cointegration analysis

In this article, whether an increase in government spending will crowd out the private consumption is re-examined. This article augments the empirical literature by extending this issue to panel data. The empirical framework applies the panel cointegration model, dynamic OLS (DOLS), proposed by Kao and Chiang [On the estimation and inference of a cointegrated regression in panel data. Working Paper, Economics Department, Syracuse University, 1999.]. Evidence from 24 OECD countries indicates a significant degree of substitutability between government spending and private consumption when the real disposable income is included, which rejects the permanent income hypothesis. The existence of crowding out renders the Keynesian plea for expansionary fiscal policy unconvincing.