The current status and systematic framework of talent programmes in basic research in China: a system theory perspective

Talent programmes are treated as a strategic foundation for social–economic development in China. With increasing levels of funding for basic research, talent programmes in basic research are becoming more complex. This increased complexity leads to inefficiencies because it is difficult to coordinate and manage these talent programmes effectively. This paper reports a survey of talent programmes in basic research in China. The results show that talent programmes in basic research have not yet formed an integrated system and that there exist some weaknesses in integration, structure, hierarchy and chronological order. Based on these conclusions, this paper proposes a framework for the talent programme system in basic research using system theory. Furthermore, measures to address weaknesses in the existing talent programme system are provided and analysed according to China's national talent strategy. These measures should be helpful for promoting the operation of talent programmes and optimising their overall performance.     

Do the skilled and prime-aged unemployed benefit more from training? Effect heterogeneity of public training programmes in Germany

This study analyses the treatment effects of public training programmes for the unemployed in Germany. Based on propensity score matching methods, we extend the picture that has been sketched in previous studies by estimating the treatment effects of medium-term programmes for different skill and age groups. Our results indicate that programme participation has a positive impact on employment probabilities and earnings for almost all sub-groups. We find little evidence for the presence of heterogeneous treatment effects, and the magnitude of the differences is quite small. Our results thus – at least in part – conflict with the strategy to provide training increasingly to individuals with better employment prospects.     

Do German Welfare‐to‐Work Programmes Reduce Welfare Dependency and Increase Employment?

Abstract. During the last decade, many Western economies reformed their welfare systems with the aim of activating welfare recipients by increasing welfare‐to‐work programmes (WTWP) and job‐search enforcement. We evaluate the short‐term effects of three important German WTWP implemented after a major reform in January 2005 (‘Hartz IV’), namely short training, further training with a planned duration of up to three months and public workfare programmes (‘One‐Euro‐Jobs’). Our analysis is based on a combination of a large‐scale survey and administrative data that is rich with respect to individual, household, agency level and regional information. We use this richness of the data to base the econometric evaluation on a selection‐on‐observables approach. We find that short‐term training programmes, on average, increase their participants' employment perspectives. There is also considerable effect heterogeneity across different subgroups of participants that could be exploited to improve the allocation of welfare recipients to the specific programmes and thus increase overall programme effectiveness.     

Conditional cash transfers and female schooling: the impact of the female school stipend programme on public school enrolments in Punjab,Pakistan

Instead of mean-tested Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) programmes, some countries have implemented gender-targeted CCTs to explicitly address intra-household disparities in human capital investments. This study focuses on addressing the direct impact of a female school stipend programme in Punjab, Pakistan – Did the intervention increase female enrolment in public schools? To address this question, we draw upon data from the provincial school censuses 2003 and 2005. We estimate the net growth in female enrolments in grade 6–8 in stipend eligible schools. Impact evaluation analysis, including difference-and-difference (DD), triple differencing (DDD) and regression-discontinuity design (RDD), indicate a modest but statistically significant impact of the intervention. The preferred estimator derived from a combination of DDD and RDD empirical strategies suggests that the average programme impact between 2003 and 2005 was an increase of six female students per school in terms of absolute change and an increase of 9% in female enrolment in terms of relative change. A triangulation effort is also undertaken using two rounds of a nationally representative household survey before and after the intervention. Even though the surveys are not representative at the sub-provincial level, the results corroborate evidence of the impact using school census data.     

Literature analysis of the evaluation of public training programmes in the USA,Europe and China: Implications for the evaluation of farmer training programmes in China

This review aims to inform the evaluation of Chinese farmer training programmes through comparison with studies assessing public training programmes in the USA and Europe. The results of comparative analysis from 62 studies in the USA, Europe and Mainland China suggest that evaluation studies of the farmer training programme should measure the effectiveness of farmer training on agricultural income. Considering the cost and availability of data, cross‐section estimation may be an effective way to evaluate the effectiveness of farmer training programmes in China, but on the basis of controlling the initial demographic characteristics of samples. In particular, political status (whether a party member of Communist Party of China or not), position (whether village cadre or not) and region of residence are considered to be important determinants that impact the effectiveness of farmer training programmes in China. This review sets out directions for the future study of Chinese training programmes, with particular emphasis given to the need for research into the causal effects of different training courses, the dynamic effects arising from variation in the duration of training, and the medium‐run or long‐run effects of training programmes.     

Housing Subsidies and Work Incentives in Great Britain

The relationship between housing costs, wages and transfer programmes is complex yet helps determine the incentive to work for individuals in low income or high housing cost households. We estimate a static discrete choice labour supply model that allows for housing benefit programme participation, using samples of married women and unmarried women drawn from Great Britain Family Resources Surveys 1994/5–97/8. We find women are quite responsive to labour supply incentives and that housing benefit income has similar incentive effects to earned income which suggests any 'stigma' is small. Our analysis is complemented by simulating housing benefit and direct rent subsidy reforms.     

Participation in universal prevention programmes

We analyse family decisions to participate in community-based universal substance-abuse prevention programmes through the framework of expected utility theory. Family functioning, which has been shown to be a good indicator of child risk for substance abuse, provides a useful reference point for family decision making. Our results show that well-functioning families (with children at low risk for substance use) should have the lowest incentive to participate, but that high-risk families may also opt out of prevention programmes. For programmes that are most effective for high-risk youth, this could be a problem. Using data from the Strengthening Families Programme (SFP) and the Washington Healthy Youth Survey (HYS), we empirically test the implications of our model and find that at least for one measure of family functioning those families with children most likely to be at risk for substance use are opting out of the programme.     

A Reappraisal of the Virtues of Private Sector Employment Programmes*

This paper evaluates the employment effects of active labour market programmes for Danish welfare benefit recipients, focusing on private sector employment (PSE) programmes. Using a latent variable model that allows for heterogeneous treatment effects among observationally identical persons, we estimate commonly defined mean treatment effects and the distribution of treatment effects. We find no significant mean treatment effect of PSE programme participation as compared to participation in other programmes for PSE programme participants. However, we find substantial heterogeneity in the treatment effects, and those most likely to participate in PSE programmes are those who benefit the least from such programmes.     

The Foreign Exchange Constraints to Economic Adjustment: The case of Iran

While a great deal of work has been devoted to the assessment of the effects of structural adjustment programmes, little is known about the relative importance of external financing and its contribution to the success of these adjustment programmes. This paper examines this question, using Iran's recent experience with an orthodox structural adjustment with its limited access to medium- and long-term external financing. Using the annual data for 1963-94, a three-gap model of growth is formulated and estimated in which economic growth is constrained by domestic saving, foreign exchange and public sector resource availability. The resulting foreign exchange-gap equation demonstrates a sharp trade-off between investment (capacity generation) and the capacity utilization rate. The model is simulated over the period 1995-99 under three growth path scenarios. The size of the foreign exchange gap under these growth path scenarios illustrates quite vividly the centrality of the foreign exchange constraint to the achievement of a modest growth rate in the medium-term.     

The use and development of indicators for the commercialisation of university research in a national support programme

Governments in most countries have set up specialised programmes to support the commercialisation of academic research. A key challenge is to develop indicators that are able to measure operation and impact. This study shows how different indicators are used to satisfy different stakeholders of a Norwegian support programme. Policy intervention is supposed to lead to additionality related to input, behaviour and output. While the support programme uses input and behavioural measures as strategic tools for its operation, policy makers are mostly preoccupied with output measures. This study illustrates how indicators develop over time, partly co-evolving with the development of the programme and the national commercialisation infrastructure. Indicators serve as incentives for the agents involved, but they may also influence the strategies of the programme that established them. The external signalling effect of indicators remains central, while its use in daily operations becomes less important with time and experience.     

On Equilibrium Dynamics Under Externalities in a Model of Economic Development

This paper studies a discrete-time version of a model of economic development proposed by Lucas, in which the average stock of human capital produces a positive externality in the production of the physical capital good. It establishes the existence of equilibrium programmes from arbitrary initial conditions, and of an equilibrium steady-state programme. The principal results are concerned with the global dynamic behaviour of equilibrium programmes off the steady state. They show that the asymptotic growth rates of consumption, physical and human capital on any equilibrium programme will equal the growth rates of the respective variables along the equilibrium steady state
JEL Classification Numbers: C62, D90, O41     

Effectiveness of sequences of One-Euro-Jobs for welfare recipients in Germany

Empirical evidence reveals that German welfare recipients often participate in multiple active labour market programmes (ALMPs). However, evidence on the effectiveness of ALMPs exists mostly for single ALMP participations so far. This article evaluates the sequential participation in ALMPs for welfare recipients in Germany based on comprehensive administrative data to control for dynamic selection that arises in the evaluation of sequences. Using a dynamic causal model and an inflow sample of welfare recipients, the article analyses the effects of sequences of a public employment programme called One-Euro-Jobs on labour market outcomes. For female participants in One-Euro-Jobs in the first period, especially in West Germany, the results imply that participating in two consecutive One-Euro-Jobs compared with receiving only welfare benefits for two consecutive periods better facilitates integration into regular employment. Moreover, taking part in a One-Euro-Job directly after entry into welfare receipt is also more effective for participants in One-Euro-Jobs in the first period than taking part in a One-Euro-Job in a later period, especially for East German men (although not for West German women). However, I also find evidence of so-called programme careers and stepwise integration into regular employment.     

Measuring the effectiveness of voluntary emission reduction programmes

This paper examines the evaluation of state environmental policies aimed at reducing ground level ozone in order to meet air quality standards set by the US Environmental Protection Agency. Several states with metropolitan areas that violate federal air quality regulations have adopted voluntary emission reduction programmes. These programmes focus on emissions from mobile sources, with the chief source being the automobile. States are allowed to claim credit towards bringing their metro areas closer to compliance with regulations only if they can provide credible evidence that these voluntary programmes are successful in reducing emissions. A model is developed to forecast aggregate traffic volumes so that one can assess the impact of the programme in reducing traffic flows during ‘Ozone Action Days’. Background information on the difficulties of measuring the ozone problem and on the recent policies adopted by the US EPA is provided. Using data from the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area, the accuracy of the model is demonstrated and preliminary analysis of whether the programmes which began in the summer of 1998 has had the desired impact is provided.     

Factors influencing producers' perceptions about the importance of government support programmes in agriculture: application of a semi-parametric ordered response model

This article examines factors affecting producers’ perceptions towards the relative importance of government support programmes in agriculture. Specific attention is placed on determining the effect of crop insurance usage on farmers’ views about the importance of government programme payments. Results from a semi-parametric ordered response model shows that producers who use yield- or revenue-based crop insurance products also tend to view government programmes with higher importance, suggesting that crop insurance and direct government support programmes tend to be complements rather than substitutes.     

Modeling farmer participation in agri-environmental nitrate pollution reducing schemes

Why do farmers choose to participate in agri-environmental programmes and how do they choose the amount of land they allocate to such programmes? This paper examines the determinant factors influencing farmers' adoption of the EU-financed agri-environmental Nitrate Reduction Programme (NRP) in Greece and the extent of the programme's adoption, in terms of land allocation. The decision to adopt the NRP is modeled as a two-step procedure. First, farmers decide whether to participate in the agri-environmental programme and second, the extent of participation is determined. We employ Heckman's self-selection bias correction model to derive unbiased estimates. Based on farm level data, we develop the profile of farmers who choose to adopt the agri-environmental programme and the characteristics of their farms. The results of the analysis provide valuable policy insights decomposed into the main factors determining first, the adoption of the agri-environmental programme and second, the extent of adoption. By decomposing the determining factors, policy makers can employ this information to design effective agri-environmental programmes, desirable to farmers and more targeted towards specific environmental and agricultural development goals.     

Targeting child benefits in a transition economy

Transition economies use their child benefit programmes to provide additional economic support for families with children. However, budgetary pressures limit social spending in many countries. Therefore, targeting child benefit programmes to the poorest households may be a sensible solution to the problem of supporting families with children when social spending is in decline. Few transition economies have attempted to target child benefits. Hence evidence on the efficacy of means‐testing for child benefits is scarce. This study considers the implementation of one of the few means‐tested child benefit programmes in a transition economy and finds relatively little evidence of targeting problems. Moreover, means‐testing for child benefit substantially alters the distribution of benefits in comparison with the distribution in the more typical universal child benefit programme.     

Assessing the value of short-term study abroad programmes to students

For many universities, students participating in short-term faculty-led programmes make up a large portion of the total study abroad population. In this article, we report the results of a unique choice experiment in which 1255 students were asked about their personal characteristics and their preferences for study abroad programme attributes. Using a random parameters logistic regression model, we find that students attitudes towards risk, their experience with international travel and their beliefs about whether study abroad would help them professionally were major determinants of whether a student expressed interest in studying abroad. We also estimate students’ willingness to pay for various programme attributes, including destination, programme duration, course type and the number of experiential learning activities. We find that the highest value programmes give students credit towards their major rather than towards the university core or as an elective and that they are 3–4 weeks in length rather than 2 or 6 weeks. Also, while students value more experiential learning activities per week, each additional trip adds less value with no additional value beyond four activities. Results are useful for practitioners interested in maximizing student participation while effectively managing study abroad budgets.     

Expanding New York State's Earned Income Tax Credit Programme: the effect on work,income and poverty

Given its favourable employment incentives and ability to target the working poor, the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) has become the primary antipoverty programme at both the federal and state levels. However, when evaluating the effect of EITC programmes on income and poverty, governments generally calculate the effect using simple accounting, where the value of the state or federal EITC benefit is added to a person's income. These calculations omit the behavioural incentives created by the existence of these programmes, the corresponding effect on labour supply and hours worked, and therefore the actual effect on income and poverty. This article simulates the full effect of an expansion of the New York State EITC benefit on employment, hours worked, income, poverty and programme expenditures. These results are then compared to those omitting labour supply effects. Relative to estimates excluding labour supply effects, the preferred behavioural results show that an expansion of the New York State EITC increases employment by an additional 14?244 persons, labour earnings by an additional $95.8 million, family income by an additional $84.5 million, decreases poverty by an additional 56?576 persons and increases costs to the State by $29.7 million.     

Estimating the employment effects of education for disabled workers in Norway

In this paper we evaluate the effectiveness of educational programmes used as an employment strategy for disabled workers in Norway. To obtain these estimates we follow the employment career of a sample of participants in educational programmes and nonparticipants three years after they had left the vocational rehabilitation benefit system. We specify an employment outcome model that includes both unobserved heterogeneity and selection bias due to correlation between unmeasured factors and a person's training status. Even though participants in educational programmes have employment rates that are around eight percentage points higher than those who did not participate in such programmes, econometric selection models produce a training effect for education not significantly different from zero. First version: Jan 2001/Final version received: April 2002  The data were provided by The Norwegian Social Data Service in Bergen. I would like to thank Dag Kiberg for preparing the raw data. All the data are gathered from sources at The Directorate of Labour, The Social Insurance Organization and Statistics Norway. None of the mentioned institutions are in any circumstances responsible for the analysis or for the conclusions drawn from it.     

Active labour market policies in Germany: do regional labour markets benefit?

This article examines on a regional level whether active labour market policies (ALMP) improve the matching process. To take the fact of heterogeneous search effectiveness during programme participation into account, we distinguish between current and former programme participants. Our findings based on a regional augmented matching function show that higher search effectiveness due to ALMP is not outweighed by indirect effects on nonparticipants. The total number of matches in a region increases with a higher share of former programme participants among the jobseekers. However, these effects largely differ between programme types.

Abbreviation OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development)ALMP (active labour market policy)