股票价格、实体经济与货币政策研究——基于我国1997-2011年的经验证据

本文运用格兰杰因果关系检验和向量自回归方法分析了1997年1月至2011年6月我国股票价格、GDP、通货膨胀率和货币政策的关系,实证结果表明,在中国,股票价格对通货膨胀的效应为正向,即股市上涨能带动通货膨胀水平的上涨。股票市场对GDP的影响短期内主要表现为替代效应,长期来看,则是财富效应和投资效应占主导;同时,货币供应量和利率对股票价格均有影响,但影响均不显著。通过格兰杰因果关系检验发现,利率变动导致货币供应量和股票价格发生变化。而货币供应量的变化影响着通货膨胀,也一定程度影响利率和股票价格。通过广义脉冲响应发现,中国人民银行紧缩性的利率政策并不能抑制股票价格上涨。增加货币供给短期内能够推动股市上涨,但长期对股市仍没有效果。     

Modelling money demand for a panel of eight transitional economies

In this article, we estimate money demand functions for a panel of eight transitional economies, using quarterly data for the period 1995:01 1995 to 2005:03. We find that real M1 and real M2 and their determinants, namely real income and short-term domestic interest rate, are cointegrated, both for individual countries as well as for the panel. Long-run elasticities suggest that consistent with theory, real income positively and nominal interest rate negatively impact real money demand. Our test for panel Granger causality suggests short-run bidirectional causality between M1 and M2 and their determinants. Finally, our tests for stability of the money demand functions reveal more cases of unstable money demand functions when M2 is used as a proxy for money demand.     

Estimating money demand functions for South Asian countries

In this paper, we estimate a money demand function for a panel of five South Asian countries. We find that the money demand and its determinants, namely real income, real exchange rate and short-term domestic and foreign interest rates are cointegrated both for individual countries as well as for the panel, and panel long-run elasticities provide robust evidence of statistically significant relationships between money demand and its determinants. Our test for panel Granger causality suggests short-run causality running from all variables, except foreign interest rate, to money demand, and we find evidence that except for Nepal money demand functions are stable.      

Stock prices and long-run demand for money: evidence from Malaysia

This paper investigates the money demand function for Malaysia in the 1971-1996 period using the multivariate cointegration and error correction model methodology. The results suggest that a stable long-run relationship exist between real M2, the interest rate differential, income and stock prices. Stock prices have a significant negative substitute effect on long-run as well as short-run broad-money demand (M2) and its omission can lead to serious misspecification in the money demand function. The analysis from the vector error correction model (VECM) and the Toda & Yamamoto (1995) causality tests find that money is endogenous and that there is at least a unidirectional relationship between stock prices and real M2. Stock prices Granger cause real M2 indirectly through income between interest rates and stock prices and stock prices and money stock. This paper comes to the conclusion that due to the endogeneity of money, M2 cannot be completely controlled by Malaysia's central bank. Therefore, in formulating future monetary policy, the response of money demand to stock prices should be considered.     

Unit Root Analyses of the Causality Between Japanese Money and Income

Unit root techniques and cointegration analysis have develop ed considerably in the last ten years. At the same time, the nonstationary test for Granger causality has been developed. We shed some new light on Japanese money supply and income causality by using nonstationary techniques. We specify univariate ARMA models of money, income, GNP deflator and rate of interest, initially by using the Dickey and Fuller (DF) or the augmented DF (ADF) tests. Two diagnostic tests are applied to each selected ARMA regression. One is the residual DF test, and the other is the moving average (MA) unit root test of residuals . After selecting the ARMA model, some causality tests are applied to the error correction model (ECM) of a vector autoregression (VAR) one of which is ordinary least squares (OLS) and another is the maximum likelihood (ML) method. The former requires only the standard F -test on the deleted variables in the ECM. The latter requires the Johansen's ML method in estimating cointegration. Causality is found to go from income to money supply but not the other way. Appendices include a simple implementation of the MA unit root test, a pedagogical proof of the Granger causality tests developed by Toda and Phillips (1993) and an interpretation of the test proposed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995).
JEL Classification Numbers: C32, E50     

Money–output Granger causal dynamics in China

This paper attempts to investigate the time-varying causal dynamics between China's money and output by using a Markov switching causality approach. Unlike the pre-specified break points and rolling-window methods, the Markov switching causality approach can capture the time-varying causality patterns endogenously. Our empirical results show that there are bidirectional time-varying Granger causalities between China's money and output. On the one hand, the money supply Granger-causes output when the economy is overheated or during recession, whilst it has no significant effect on output when the economy grows moderately; the short term interest rate only has temporary effect on output, suggesting the ineffectiveness of the interest rate based monetary policy. On the other hand, output only affects the money supply in short periods, whilst the feedback of output on the short term interest rate has distinct regime switching features, which implies that the nonlinear Taylor rule targeting on the short term interest rate is more appropriate than the McCallum rule in describing China's monetary policy reaction function.     

Real Money Demand,Income, and Interest Rates in Senegal: Is there a Long-Run Stable Relation?

In this paper, I examine the stability of the long-run relationship between real money demand, income, and interest rates in Senegal. Using advances in unit root and co-integration, I test for co-integration between M1 velocity, output, and the interest rate. By virtue of the fixed exchange rate regime, I used both the three months French Treasury bill and the deposit rate to proxy the opportunity cost of holding money. I used Stock and Watson (1993) DOLS in addition to an ECM. Quarterly data ranging from 1970:Q4 to 2006:Q4 is used in the analysis, and the results reveal evidence of co-integration between real money demand, income, and the interest rate. For this study, I used both an ECM co-integration test and Johansen (Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 12(2/3), 231-254, 1988) co-integration method.     

Financial Deregulation and Stability of Money Demand: The Australian Case

This paper analyses the Australian economy in the post-war period. The analysis examines stationarity and cointegrating relationship among output, interest rate and money. The analysis shows that Australia has had a stable cointegrating relationship among output, interest rate and money during the post-war period although the country deregulated its financial sector in the 1980's. Australia's money demand function fails to reject the hypothesis that the interest elasticity of money demand is 0.5. In addition, one specification of the country's money demand function fails to reject the hypothesis that the income elasticity of money demand is unity. The specification is the Vector Error Correction Model that includes real output, real balances, an interest rate, and a deregulation dummy variable, with the lag length of three.     

Causality between income and emission: a country group-specific econometric analysis

Empirical studies of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) examine the presence or otherwise of an inverted U-shaped relationship between the level of pollution and the level of income. Customarily, in the diagram of EKC the level of income is shown on the horizontal axis and that of pollution on the vertical axis. Thus, it is presumed that the relationship between income and pollution is one of unidirectional causality with income causing environmental changes and not vice versa. The validity of this presumption is now being questioned. It is being asserted that the nature and direction of causality may vary from one country to the other. In this paper, we present the results of a study of income–CO₂ emission causality based on a Granger causality test to cross-country panel data on per capita income and the corresponding per capita CO₂ emission data. Briefly, our results indicate three different types of causality relationship holding for different country groups. For the developed country groups of North America and Western Europe (and also for Eastern Europe) the causality is found to run from emission to income. For the country groups of Central and South America, Oceania and Japan causality from income to emission is obtained. Finally, for the country groups of Asia and Africa the causality is found to be bi-directional. The regression equations estimated as part of the Granger causality test further suggest that for the country groups of North America and Western Europe the growth rate of emission has become stationary around a zero mean, and a shock in the growth rate of emission tends to generate a corresponding shock in the growth rate of income. In contrast, for the country groups of Central and South America, Oceania and Japan a shock in the income growth rate is likely to result in a corresponding shock in the growth rate of emission. Finally, causality being bi-directional for the country groups of Asia and Africa, the income and the emission growth rates seemed to reinforce each other.     

A causal caveat in the Australian money/income relation

The nature of Australian causal relations between money and nominal income and money and real income is examined. Like other recent studies in the area causality is in the sense of Granger (1969). Unlike other studies, causality conclusions are based on both a within-and post-sample analysis. This is motivated by Granger's(1980) recent suggestions regarding causality detection. Monetary growth is found to lead both real and nominal income growth by six months. Surprisingly, the post-sample forecasting analysis suggests real income rather than nominal income as the more relevant causal variable as far as monetary growth is concerned. The identified lag here is fifteen months.     

Granger causality of the inflation–growth mirror in accession countries*

The paper presents a model in which the exogenous money supply causes changes in the inflation rate and the output growth rate. While inflation and growth rate changes occur simultaneously, the inflation acts as a tax on the return to human capital and in this sense induces the growth rate decrease. Shifts in the model's credit sector productivity cause shifts in the income velocity of money that can break the otherwise stable relationship between money, inflation, and output growth. Applied to two accession countries, Hungary and Poland, a VAR system is estimated for each that incorporates endogenously determined multiple structural breaks. Results indicate Granger causality positively from money to inflation and negatively from inflation to growth for both Hungary and Poland, as suggested by the model, although there is some feedback to money for Poland. Three structural breaks are found for each country that are linked to changes in velocity trends, and to the breaks found in the other country.     

我国货币—产出非对称影响关系的实证研究

货币与产出之间的非对称影响关系研究,近年来在宏观经济学领域受到了广泛的关注。本文运用平滑迁移向量误差修正(STVECM)模型,对1989—2007年我国货币与产出之间是否存在非对称影响关系展开实证分析。引入年产出增长率、年货币增长率以及年通货膨胀率的年度变化作为转移变量,线性检验表明我国货币、产出和价格系统存在显著的非线性;通过模型估计识别了我国货币—产出关系的经济和/或政策状态相依性;运用非线性Granger因果关系检验进一步证明了两者之间是一种非对称关系。概括来说,我国货币对产出的影响关系具有明显的非对称性,其依赖于经济周期的高速增长和低速增长阶段、货币供给的高速增长和低速增长阶段以及通货膨胀率的加速和减速阶段。     

Demand for money in Bangladesh: a cointegration analysis

The aim of this study is to estimate the demand for real broad (M2) money in Bangladesh using the most recently developed autoregressive distributed lag approach to cointegration analyses. The empirical results show that there is a unique cointegrated and stable long-run relationship among real per capita broad money demand, real per capita income, domestic interest rates and unofficial exchange rate (UM) premiums which act as a surrogate for foreign interest rates. With money as the dependent variable, the results show that the income and interest elasticities are positive while the UM premium elasticity is negative. These results suggest that distortions in the financial and foreign exchange markets should be reduced in order to increase financial saving or monetary accumulation. Our results also reveal that the demand for money in Bangladesh is stable despite the changes in financial and exchange rate policies between 1975 and 1995.     

Causality testing and sensitivity to detrending: The money-income relationship revisited

The money-income causal relationship is examined using the Hsiao (1979) causal testing method for alternative definitions of money and different detrending transformations. The results for Barbadian data suggest that each detrending transformation will induce different lag specifications in the causal regressions and that the implied causal directions are sensitive to both the definition of money and the detrending technique used. An unambiguous result, based on an examination of the components of money, is that quasi-money Granger-causes income. A recommendation of the paper is that tests for unit roots be used prior to performing the causality tests.     

Comment on ‘Cyclical and secular influences on the size distribution of personal income in the UK: some econometric tests’ by G. Weil

The issue of the relationship between domestic and eurocurrency interest rates is reexamined using the Granger causality test. It is concluded that while earlier results suggesting causality runs from the eurocurrency market to the domestic money market remains valid for the US dollar market, this result cannot be generalized to behaviour in the money markets denominated in sterling deutschemarks.     

Multivariate cointegration and causality tests of Wagner's hypothesis: evidence from the UK

The purpose of this paper is to examine the issue of omitted variables in testing the long run validity of Wagner's hypothesis. Using UK data for the period 1948 to 1997, this paper first investigates the secular relationship between public spending and economic development in a bivariate system. In all cases considered, our bivariate cointegration tests indicate the absence of a long run equilibrium condition. However, the introduction of a third variable (money supply) re-establishes a cointegrating relationship between public expenditure and economic development variables. In addition, the results of the Granger's multivariate causality test indicate a unidirectional causality from income and money supply to public spending in the long run, thus providing support for Wagner's hypothesis.     

RE-EXAMINING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF STABILISATION POLICY

This paper develops an alternative international macroeconomic model for evaluating the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy in stabilising national income under fixed and floating exchange rates. It encompasses national output and income, saving, investment, money and capital flows and linkages between the exchange rate, price levels and real interest rates consistent with international parity conditions. It demonstrates that the nature of government spending is pivotal to the effectiveness of fiscal policy, revealing that, ceteris paribus , higher public consumption expenditure contracts national income and depreciates the exchange rate, whereas higher productive public investment spending has opposite effects. The framework also shows that the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy as macroeconomic policy instruments is not ultimately dependent on the exchange rate regime.     

The demand for money in korea: Evidence from the cointegration test

This paper shows that there exists a long-run equilibrium relationship between M2 and its determinants, real income and the long-term interest rate, in Korea by using Johansen and Juselius maximum likelihood cointegration method. However, M1 does not have any meaningful cointegration relationships with its determinants. The long-term interest rate is a better proxy than the short-term rate to measure the opportunity cost of holding money. Based on the results, a broad definition of money is a better measure than a narrow definition of money in considering the long-run economic impacts of changes in monetary policy in Korea.     

A stable demand for money despite financial crisis: the case of Venezuela

The demand for broad money in Venezuela is investigated over a period of financial crisis and substantial exchange rate fluctuations. The analysis shows that there exist a long-run relationship between real money, real income, inflation, the exchange rate and an interest rate differential, that remains stable over major policy changes and large shocks. The long-run properties emphasize that both inflation and exchange rate depreciations have negative effects on real money demand, whereas a higher interest rate differential has positive effects. The long-run relationship is finally embedded in a dynamic equilibrium correction model with constant parameters. These results have implications for a policy-maker. In particular, they emphasize that with a high degree of currency substitution in Venezuela, monetary aggregates will be very sensitive to changes in the economic environment.     

Money,growth, and the stability of the steady state under myopic perfect foresight

The stability of a monetary growth model is demonstrated. It differs from the standard two- asset model in the presence of interest bearing government debt, the endogenous determination of the money supply and an investment function that is sensitive to interest rates and disposable income.