Betting on weight loss … and losing: personal gambles as commitment mechanisms

Professional bookmakers rarely accept bets from individuals who directly control the outcome of the bet. We analyse a unique exception to this rule and a potential policy innovation in the battle against obesity: a weight loss betting market. If obese individuals have time-inconsistent preferences then commitment mechanisms, such as personal gambles, should help them restrain their short-term impulses and lose weight. Correspondence with the bettors confirms that this is their primary motivation. However, it appears that the bettors in our sample are not particularly skilled at choosing effective commitment mechanisms. Despite payoffs of as high as $7350, approximately 80% of people who spend money to bet on their own behaviour end up losing their bets. Empirical analysis of the betting market yields further insights. Males are treated very differently compared to females: being male is considered equivalent to having an extra 6 months to lose the same amount of weight. Movements in the market price also confirm the belief that rigidity is preferred to flexibility in setting successful weight loss targets.     

An explanation of each-way wagers in three models of risky choice

Punters may engage in betting on both a selection in an event to finish first or in one of the number of places, e.g. second, third or fourth. When the amounts staked with bookmakers at fixed odds on the win and place are equal, it is called an each-way bet. Each-way bets are apparently popular with punters but inconsistent with prominent models of wagering which assume gamblers are everywhere risk-seeking. In this note, we derive the conditions for win and place bets to be optimal in these three models of risky choice. The mathematical conditions for the each-way wager to be optimal, as opposed to a win and place wager with different stakes, are complicated and appear likely to occur rarely in practice. However, bettors obviously see the attraction in giving themselves two ways to bet on the one horse or two ways to win and betting each way. We suggest part of the ‘each-way’ betting attraction is that they are quick and easy to compute – a heuristic – to solve an otherwise complex betting strategy.     

Advancing into the 21st Century: Visions and Challenges Facing the Downunder Economy

Long-term visions serve to focus on essentials for sustained economic and social welfare. We now have to face up to the challenge of globalisation (growing international capital mobility), at a time when we are undoing our historic, self-imposed protectionism. This also creates new opportunities, in particular in the dynamic Asia-Pacific economies.
There still is a 'window of opportunity' before an aging population will become a dominant problem. In the next 25 years, business will have to cope with high real interest rates and major uncertainties that now surround environmental policies.
If we are to take on these challenges in constructive and beneficial ways, we have to develop an institutional order that enables the utilisation of knowledge by enterprising people. This requires a simple, transparent and reliable legal and regulatory framework, which supports competitive market processes, and the defence of openness to international trade and capital flows against particular interest groups.
It seems plausible that the Downunder economy can grow over the next 25 years at about 3.5 per cent per capita if the right institutional conditions are created. If we fail to do so, a growing share of the capital, the skills and the enterprise made Down-under will move to offshore locations which encourage a better use of knowledge and capital by enterprising people. This would deprive many of economic opportunity. The central challenge therefore is to develop a system of government and labour relations which makes the Downunder economy internationally attractive.     

An examination of the empirical derivatives of the favourite-longshot bias in racetrack betting

Market efficiency dictates it equally profitable to bet on any racing participant, including the favourite or longshot. However, a well-documented anomaly is that racetrack bettors tend to overbet longshots and underbet favourites. This study presents and tests two theoretical explanations for this favourite-longshot bias. The unparalleled richness of the data allows the exploration of how the bias changes with several key variables. This study finds the most popular current explanation for the bias, the risk preference model, cannot explain the data as well as an information-based model, in which the bias depends on bet complexity and the information possessed by bettors.     

知识经济时代企业文化的创新

知识与文化有着千丝万缕的联系。随着人们对作为知识经济时代最基本的生产要素———知识的越来越重视 ,人们也应该去研究与之密切相关的文化。特别应该研究知识经济时代最活跃的经济单元———企业的文化 ,也就是企业文化。要使企业在知识经济时代的竞争中立于不败之地 ,必须建立与知识经济相适应的企业文化。     

The Role of Absolute Continuity in “Merging of Opinions” and “Rational Learning”

D. Blackwell and L. Dubins (1962, Ann. Math. Statist.38, 882–886) showed that opinions merge when priors are absolutely continuous. E. Kalai and E. Lehrer (1993, Econometrica61, 1019–1045) use this result to show that players in a repeated game eventually play like a Nash equilibrium. We provide an alternative proof of merging of opinions that clarifies the role of absolute continuity while casting doubt on the relevance of the result. Persistent disagreement, the opposite of merging, allows the construction of a sequence of mutually favorable “bets.” By a law of large numbers, both agents are certain they will win these bets on average. This certain disagreement violates absolute continuity. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C11, C69, C72, D83.     

Enterprise restructuring and bank competition in transition economies

We investigate how bank competition affects the efficiency of credit allocation, using a model of spatial competition. Our analysis shows that bad loans are more likely the larger the number of banks competing for customers. We study further how many banks will be active if market entry is not regulated. Free entry can induce too much entry and thus too many bad loans compared to the social optimum. Finally we analyse how bank competition affects the restructuring efforts of firms. We find that restructuring has positive externalities which give rise to multiple equilibria, with either much or little restructuring activity.
JEL classification: D43, G21, G34, L13, P31, P34.     

Table games,slot machines and casino revenue

The main focus of this study is to assess the influence of table games on slot machine and total casino revenues. The subjects of the analysis are 24 rierboat casinos in the midwestern states of Illinois, Iowa and Missouri and three racinos in Iowa. A racino is a parimutuel racetrack which also offers slot machine gaming to its customers. Two econometric models were developed, one for slot machine revenue and one for total (slot machine plus table game) revenue at riverboats and racinos. Of particular interest is the effect on slot machine and total revenue of adding table games to the gaming operation. Slot machine revenue was found to increase with the number of slot machines and decrease with the number of table games. Slot machine revenue was estimated to decrease by 11.5% in the presence of 40 table games, the mean number of table games over the sample. Total win was found to increase with an increase in both slot machines and table games. The elasticity of total win with respect to the number of slot machines and table games was estimated to be 0.786 and 0.219, respectively. Total revenue was estimated to increase by 24.5% for an additional 40 table games.     

对新形势下做好关心下一代工作的几点思考

青少年是祖国的未来、民族的希望。只有赢得青少年,才能真正赢得未来。引导广大青少年健康成长,是党和国家事业生机勃勃、长治久安的根本之策。关工委和老同志做关心下一代工作,具有其他社会力量不可替代的特殊优势。各方面要高度重视和发挥关工委和老同志的作用,为加强和改进未成年人思想道德建设和大学生思想政治教育,推动全社会精神文明建设作出新的更大的贡献。     

Market consumption and hidden consumption. A test for substitutability

Previous studies point to a generally efficient baseball betting market with no profitable betting strategies. However, failure to consider the time of year in which the bets are placed neglects differences in available information throughout the season. This analysis largely confirms the general efficiency of the major league baseball betting market by existing measures; however, incorporating the time of the year in which the bet is made generates persistent profitable betting strategies. The process by which information impacts returns is considered; increasing difficulties in determining the true favourite likely play the largest role, while assessing the exact favourite underdog relationship also has an impact.     

Product choice for a firm selling related products: A parimutuel application

This paper provides a framework for analysis of product choice by a multiproduct firm selling several products whose demands are interrelated. The decision making process of a racetrack-racebook regarding the parimutuel wagering products (both number and which ones) it should supply is illustrated. A racetrack-racebook is a business entity, which offers its patrons the opportunity to wager, not only on live horse racing conducted at the racetrack but also on races simulcast to that racetrack from a variety of racetracks, from both in-state and out-of-state locations. The demands for these wagering products are interrelated and these interrelationships play a key role in determining the number (and which ones) of these wagering opportunities that will be supplied. Based on the experience of a specific racetrack-racebook, these demand functions are estimated econometrically and the role of these interrelated demands in the supply decision is explored. An algorithm is developed to search over all possible product portfolios to determine that combination of products yielding the highest sales, revenue, or profit.     

Painless disinflation? Monetary policy rules in Hungary, 1991‐99

We estimate a small structural model for inflation, the output gap, the domestic interest rate and the exchange rate for Hungary during the period of the transition (1991-99). The transmission of monetary policy impulses to macro variables is characterized in a similar fashion to that of advanced open industrial countries. In particular, in the context of our rational expectations, forward-looking model, the interest rate channel on aggregate demand and the exchange rate channel work together as parts of the same disinflation policy. We draw several conclusions on understanding and modeling the effects of monetary policy, and also on the desirable design of policy rules during the process of disinflation.
JEL classification: E17, E52, P24.     

Crossing the Great Divide: Ostrom’s Coproduction and the Economics of Aged Care

As the first woman to win the Nobel Prize in economics, Elinor Ostrom has attracted the interest of many feminist economists. Best known for her work on common pool resources, Ostrom made numerous theoretical and methodological contributions to economics, many of which are useful for feminist economists. This paper explores Ostrom’s work on coproduction: the active participation of individuals who receive a good or service in the production process. A particular focus is on how Ostrom’s model of coproduction might be applied and extended to capture the characteristics and circumstances of aged care. Data from interviews with women employed in Australia’s aged-care sector are used to inform a discussion of coproduction in aged care and the institutional supports necessary for successful outcomes. Key issues include the skills and resourcing of aged-care workers, and their authority to negotiate care practice with care recipients under current governance arrangements.     

Heterogeneity,social esteem and feasibility of collective action

In the presence of individual heterogeneity, a major problem with egalitarian partnership, such as complete income pooling, is that individuals of comparatively high ability are induced to exit the arrangement. This is nevertheless ignoring the possible impact of social esteem considerations based on a comparison of members' performances. In this paper, drawing inspiration from pooling experiences in a Japanese fishery, we show that the exit problem can be surmounted if sensitivity to social esteem is neither too strong nor too weak. If it is too strong, the lower ability agents will exit out of social shame whereas, if it is too weak, the higher ability agents will not consider it worthwhile to transfer income to their partners. When the arrangement is sustainable, the lower ability people strive towards limiting the income gap.     

The role of small bettors in price formation in betting exchanges

ABSTRACT

The presence of small bettors in betting exchanges generates mispricing, which can lead to exploitation by informed traders or result in permanent price deviations. This paper shows that mispricing from this source is also dependent upon variables of established relevance such as tournament round, the level of attention to the event, the volume of the betting, and bet type, further confirming these findings by means of cumulative accuracy profile (CAP) curves. It also offers evidence of the relevant role played by the type of device used to place the bet, whereby higher mispricing is observed in live bets placed via a mobile device, which appears to be associated with impulsive betting. This last finding could have practical implications for the regulation of the use of mobile devices to access gambling platforms.     

利益相关者与企业伦理关系分析

20世纪90年代之后,利益相关者理论逐渐完善和发展.企业要对利益相关者开展伦理管理,以德治企.以"双赢"策略处理与其利益相关者之间的关系.对内赢得员工的忠诚,建立良好的员工关系;对外赢得公众支持、顾客满意、投资者青睐和供应者信任.     

准备金制度功能的异化与我国准备金政策的取向

"利率走廊"调控是当前国际最新的利率调控范式,加拿大等国在"利率走廊"调控基础上,实行零准备制度,这使人们误认为准备金制度似乎走到头了.实际情况并非如此,其实行零准备金并非抛弃准备金制度,而是在利率调控的新背景下,以准备金为零的制度.它的机制和功能与传统准备金制度有很大的异化,但是却代表着准备金制度发展演变的趋势.所以研究准备金制度功能异化的动因,以及它未来的变动趋势,对于我国准备金制度的规范完善具有重要的借鉴意义.     

Land rental markets and rural poverty dynamics in Northern Ethiopia: Panel data evidence using survival models

There is growing interest in understanding the links between land reforms, land markets, and poverty reduction in Africa. The study uses four‐wave panel data from the northern highlands of Ethiopia to assess the dynamics of rural poverty taking into account the status of participation of rural households in the land rental market. Applying both nonparametric (Kaplan–Meier estimator) and semi‐parametric survival models that control for duration dependence of poverty transition, results show participation and degree of participation on the supply side of the tenancy market (landlords) have highly significant and positive effect on the chances of escaping poverty while the same cannot be said about the demand side of the tenancy market (tenants). The empirical evidence also confirms that households headed by older and literate people have relatively larger exit rates from poverty as compared with households headed by younger and illiterate ones. Though transacting farmers may engage themselves in win–win rental arrangements by the time they join the tenancy market, results indicate that gains are unequal as those tenants who enter the markets from low economic leverage (were poor) are liable to face a lower margin of net gains, which may limit their ability to move out of poverty.     

Structural policies and growth: Time series evidence from a natural experiment

Documenting the long term impact of structural policies on economic performance has generated tremendous interest in the development literature. In contrast, contemporary effects of structural policies are difficult to establish. Structural policies seldom change sufficiently in the short run, and accepted instruments to control for endogeneity in cross sections are inappropriate for time series analysis. In this paper we utilize an eleven year panel of 26 transition countries to identify short term effects of structural policies that are large and significant. A ten percent change in the quality of structural policies (or the Rule of Law) towards OECD standards is shown to raise annual growth by about 2.5%. To control for endogeneity, we develop an instrument using the hierarchy of institutions hypothesis and find that it holds a robust explanatory power. We also document that early reformers reap the greatest benefits, but that it is never too late to begin structural policy reforms.     

Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Fisheries: The Case of Multiple Regulatory Instruments in Sweden

The fishing sector is a candidate for efficient climate policies because it is commonly exempted from greenhouse gas taxes and the fundamental problem of using a common pool resource is far from optimally solved. At the same time, fisheries management has other objectives. This study uses Swedish fisheries to analyse how the fishing sector and its climate impact are affected by regulations aiming at: (1) solving the common pool problem (2) taxing greenhouse gas emissions and (3) maintaining small-scale fisheries. The empirical approach is a linear programming model where the effects of simultaneously using multiple regulations are analyzed. Solving the common pool problem will lead to a 30 % reduction in emissions and substantially increase economic returns. Taxing greenhouse gas emissions will further reduce emissions. Policies for maintaining the small-scale fleet will increase the size of this fleet segment, but at the cost of lower economic returns. However, combining this policy with fuel taxes will reduce the size of the small-scale fleet, thus counteracting the effects of the policy. If taxation induces fuel-saving innovations, it is shown that this will affect not only emissions and fleet structure, but also quota uptake.