Inter- and intracountry effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on wages and economic growth

This paper aims to investigate the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on technological knowledge, wage inequality, and economic growth, by proposing a Direct-Technical-Change model with two economies, an Innovative and other Follower. Six hypotheses are considered: (i) decrease in the unskilled-labor supply, (ii) decrease in the absolute advantage of unskilled labor, (iii) decrease in the intensity of the unskilled sector, (iv) hypothesis (i) combined with a lower decrease in the skilled-labor supply, (v) hypothesis (ii) combined with a lower decrease in the absolute advantage of skilled labor, (vi) all the variations previously considered. By comparing the steady states before and after the shock, we find an increase in the technological-knowledge bias that favors the skill-intensive sector, which positively affects the skill premium. However, in hypotheses (i) and (iv), the decrease in the relative supply of unskilled labor dominates the effect on the skill premium, which thus decreases. The economic growth rate is always penalized except for hypothesis (iii). Hypotheses (ii) and (iv) are undesirable because they increase wage inequality and penalize economic growth. Governments should support innovative activity, the engine of technological-knowledge progress, and thus economic growth, but with caution not to exacerbate the skill premium.     

Training,productivity and wages: An investigation of China's manufacturing enterprises in a privatization era

We estimated a structural model of production and wage determination in which labour quality can be affected by a firm's training decision using data of China's manufacturing enterprises in an era of privatization (2004–2007). Training increased both productivity and wages, but the former increased more, which explained the voluntary provision of on-the-job training. Our results also indicate that state-controlled enterprises' investment in training could be both privately and socially efficient; unions played a role in promoting training; it might be more privately and socially efficient for manufacturing firms to prioritize training resources to lower-educated, female and junior workers, if they had not done so, during privatization.     

The dynamic effects of monsoon rainfall shocks on agricultural yield,wages, and food prices in India*

This paper shows that, first, the effects of monsoon rainfall shocks on agricultural yield in India are highly asymmetric: yield falls strongly after droughts, whereas excessive rainfall has only little effects. Second, our key novel finding is that the short-lived yield loss after a widespread drought elicits a persistent decline (increase) in wages (food prices), which lasts for up to five years. Third, affiliation to the same National Sample Survey region (and thus to the same state) seems to be a key determinant of internal migration, whereas distance appears more relevant for food arbitrage trading.     

Effect of cognitive abilities and non-cognitive abilities on labor wages: empirical evidence from the Chinese Employer-Employee Survey

ABSTRACT

The existing literature suggests that worker’s cognitive and non-cognitive abilities have a significant impact on wages. However, presently there is little research in this area of ??China’s labor force, due to scanty data. To this end, this Paper conducted a CEES-based data research, which found that, the cognitive and non-cognitive abilities of male, skilled workers have a greater impact on their wages, as compared with those of the female, unskilled workers. The OLS regression based on the Mincer Wage Equation found that, the impact of non-cognitive abilities on wages is generally larger than that of the cognitive abilities. All cognitive abilities have a positive impact on wages, wherein English proficiency has the greatest elasticity of wages, which is 12.1%. Of all non-cognitive abilities, Conscientiousness has the highest wage elasticity, which is 13.6%, whereas Agreeableness has a negative wage elasticity of ?6.32%.

Abbreviations: CEES: Chinese Employer-Employee Survey OLS: Ordinary least squares     

The cyclicality of consumption,wages and employment of the public sector in the euro area

This study empirically examines the business cycle behaviour of public consumption and its main components, the public wage bill (including its breakdown into compensation per employee and public employment) and intermediate consumption, in the euro area aggregate, euro area countries and a group of selected non-euro area Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries (Denmark, Sweden, the UK, Japan and the US). It looks across a large number of variables and methods, using annual data from 1960 to 2005. It finds robust evidence supporting that public consumption, wages and employment co-move with the business cycle in a pro-cyclical manner with 1–2 year lags, notably for the euro area aggregate and euro area countries. The findings reflect mainly the correlation between cyclical developments, but also point to an important role of pro-cyclical discretionary fiscal policies.     

The effect of vaccination on children's physical and cognitive development in the Philippines

We use data from the Cebu Longitudinal Health and Nutrition Survey (CLHNS) in the Philippines to link vaccination in the first 2 years of life with later physical and cognitive development in children. We use propensity score matching to estimate the causal effect of vaccination on child development. We find no effect of vaccination on later height or weight, but full childhood vaccination for measles, polio, Tuberculosis (TB), Diphtheria, Pertussis and Tetanus (DPT) significantly increases cognitive test scores relative to matched children who received no vaccinations. The size of the effect is large, raising test scores, on average, by about half an SD.     

增长失衡与政府责任:基于社会性支出角度的分析

There exists a kind of growth imbalance in China’s current development process, which is essentially characterized by the imbalance between the nation’s wealth and the people’s welfare. This paper points out that growth imbalance results mostly from insufficient government social spending on people’s welfare. Consequently, the government should shoulder the basic responsibility for the provision of education, health and social security, quicken the transformation of government expenditure structure and increase the share of social spending, in order to improve the people’s welfare and achieve the rebalancing of growth. The increase in social spending can also promote the accumulation of human capital, which will help the conversion of economic growth pattern and the realization of sustainable and healthy economic development. Translated from Jingji Yanjiu 经济研究 (Economic Research Journal), 2006, (10): 4–17     

From the laws of human nature to capital accumulation: James Mill's analysis of the states of society in the Elements of Political Economy

Abstract

James Mill's Elements of Political Economy is usually treated as a textbook of Ricardian political economy. Although this might be justified, there is a passage in this Ricardian textbook that is not Ricardian. The passage deals with Mill's analysis of the states of society, in which he underlines the laws of human nature conducive to capital accumulation. This paper investigates such states.     

劳动力迁移、人力资本与农业技术进步分析

采用比较分析法和数据包络分析法（DEA）,分析了劳动力迁移、人力资本与农业技术进步之间的关系。认为劳动力迁移有利于劳动力人力资本水平的提高;农业技术效率在短期内受到物质资本投入、劳动力素质等因素的强性约束。长期来看,约束因子会不断放松;劳动力迁移对迁入地的农业技术进步是有贡献的。     

Population Growth, Technological Adoption, and Economic Outcomes in the Information Era

In this paper we argue that population growth, through its interaction with recent technological and organizational developments, may account for many cross-country differences in economic outcomes observed among industrialized countries over the past 20 years. In particular, our model illustrates how a large decrease in the price of information technology can create a comparative advantage for high population growth economies to jump ahead in the adoption of computer- and skill-intensive modes of production. They do this as a means of countering their relative scarcity of physical capital. The predictions of the model are that, over the span of the information revolution, industrial countries with higher population growth rates will experience a more pronounced adoption of new technology, a better performance in terms of increased employment rates, a poorer performance in terms of wage growth for less skilled workers, a larger increase in the service sector, and a larger increase in the returns to education. We provide preliminary evidence in support of the theory based on an examination of broad wage movements, employment changes, and computer adoption patterns for a set of OECD countries. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: O33, J31, J11.     

Twin Engines of Growth: Skills and Technology as Equal Partners in Balanced Growth

We develop an endogenous growth model in which skill acquisition by households and innovation by firms make distinct contributions to productivity growth. Nevertheless, the incentives faced by firms and households are inextricably linked because skills are required to implement new technologies. Skills and technologies are dynamic complements but, because their production complementarity is inherently bounded, they are equal partners in driving growth: neither can generate sustained growth alone. Our model has important implications for the effectiveness of alternative growth-promoting policies, for interpretating the empirical relationship between growth and schooling, and the relationship between growth and intergenerational wage dispersion.     

The effect of opposite sex siblings on cognitive and noncognitive skills in early childhood

We investigate the effect of having opposite sex siblings on cognitive and noncognitive skills of children in the United States at the onset of formal education. Our identification strategy rests on the assumption that, conditional on covariates, the sibling sex composition of the two firstborn children in a family is arguably exogenous. With regard to cognitive skills, learning skills and self-control measured in kindergarten, we find that boys benefit from having a sister, while there is no effect for girls. We also find evidence for the effect fading out as early as first grade.     

技术进步、资本积累对劳动力就业影响的理论分析

构建一个动态一般均衡模型,讨论了城乡分离和城乡融合的条件下劳动力就业是如何受制于技术进步和资本积累的。研究发现:在城乡分离的状态下,若不存在技术进步,则农业就业比重不会持续下降,而是维持在一个稳定状态;当出现技术进步时,更多的劳动力就业将使经济进入一个高水平的动态过程;在城乡融合的状态下,若加速的资本积累未匹配正的就业增长率,则经济将被导入一个低水平的动态过程中。     

The effect of real wages and inflation on labour productivity in Malaysia

This study examines the relationship between labour productivity, real wages and inflation in Malaysia using the bounds testing approach to cointegration and also the Granger causality test. The findings of this study suggest that inflation is negatively related to labour productivity. However, the effect of real wages on labour productivity is non-linear and the two have an inverted-U shape relationship. From a policy viewpoint, the Granger causality test shows that real wages Granger-cause labour productivity, but there is no evidence of reversal causation. Hence, the Malaysian dataset supports the claims by the efficiency wage theory. Moreover, we find that inflation and labour productivity in Malaysia have bilateral causality in the short- and the long-run.     

The effect of legal status on immigrant wages and occupational skills

Native and foreign-born workers with a high school degree or less education work in different types of occupations. This article exploits the 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act to examine whether legal status causes immigrants to work in occupations that use skills similar to those of natives. Legal status decreases the manual skill intensity of immigrants’ occupations by about two percentiles. It increases communication skill intensity by a similar amount. This reduces the skill gap between Mexican-born and native-born American workers by 11–15%.     

人力资本对产业结构优化升级的影响——基于空间面板数据模型的研究

产业结构优化升级主要包含产业结构合理化与产业结构高级化两个方面. 本文基于2002—2013年间的中国30个省域的数据, 采用空间面板数据模型, 经验分析了人力资本对于产业结构合理化与产业结构高级化的影响作用. 分析得出: 当前中国的人力资本积累水平对于产业结构合理化与产业结构高级化均呈现出正向促进作用; 人力资本分布结构并不利于产业结构合理化与产业结构高级化; 与此同时, 从人力资本对产业结构合理化与产业结构高级化的空间效应来看, 人力资本积累水平具有正的空间溢出效应.     

创业者的人力资本和社会资本对创业过程的影响

创业者的人力资本和社会资本在新企业的创建和成长中起着至关重要的作用。本文探讨了创业者人力资本和社会资本的构成及其关系,就它们对机会识别、新企业创建和成长的不同阶段的影响进行了评述和研究,总结了其中的机制,并指出,在创业过程中创业者的人力资本和社会资本会互相影响,不断形成资本的积累和增值,进而促进或抑制新企业的成长绩效。在此基础上,提出了基于创业者人力资本和社会资本的创业过程整体研究框架。     

Vanity and the love of system in Theory of Moral Sentiments

Abstract

Some recent writing on Adam Smith's Theory of Moral Sentiments has emphasised the importance of vanity as one of the most important human motivations. This reading leads to a new version of Das Adam Smith Problem, but this is unwarranted. Such a reading tends to conceal the significance that Smith gave to the love of system, which motivates the actions of the philosopher, the man of state, and above all the entrepreneur. This paper shows, by contrast, that by using this conception we can relate Theory of Moral Sentiments to Wealth of Nations, and reject the idea that these works are based upon contradictory assumptions.     

教育和健康投资对经济影响的研究

教育和健康的经济效应,既可以从宏观层面也可以从微观层面来进行分析.本文通过评述有关人力资本的理论及实证研究,梳理了教育和健康的宏观经济效应与微观经济效应.此外,我们还介绍了用于度量人力资本的教育指标和健康指标,并对解释教育和健康两者之间关系的各种观点做了一个简短的总结.     

珠三角地区资本结构与劳资关系的实证研究

根据资本-劳动替代的“拐点论”,经济发展的初期总是伴随着物质资本的积累,物质资本将在相当长的时期占据经济增长的主导地位;由于资本劳动的边际替代率递减,当物质资本积累处于一定阶段,产生对人力资本更多需求,人力资本则成为这个时期的主要资本;只有在经济持续发展,政治文明发展到一定程度,信任、规范、网络和社会公德等社会资本才有可能成为推动经济发展的主导力量。珠三角地区城市的劳资关系在近30年均处于下降趋势,物质资本总体处于上升趋势,人力资本意义上的劳动力尤其是高层次高素质的劳动力较缺乏;社会资本可以显著的促进物质资本和人力资本的积累,物质资本水平的提高并不必然产生人力资本积累和社会资本积累的结果,人力资本积累也不必然促进社会资本的发展。需要转变经济发展方式,为资本演化创造物质条件,促进人力资本和社会资本积累,并在企业管理层面上促进合作型劳资关系的形成。