见证中国经济周期波动研究历程——纪念《经济研究》创刊50周年

《经济研究》1978年复刊以来,作为国内外知名的经济学理论园地,成为研究中国经济体制改革和社会主义现代化建设问题的一个重要的思想库,其中,也成为中国经济周期波动问题研究的旗帜和重要园地。本文回顾了20多年来在《经济研究》上所开展的中国经济周期波动问题的研究历程,这一历程可以划分为“说明性”、“应对性”和“能动性”三个阶段。由此,不仅开拓了中国经济周期波动研究的新领域,推动了马克思主义现代经济周期理论的发展,也培养和锻炼了一批学术骨干和队伍。     

The performance of German water utilities: a (semi)-parametric analysis

Germany's water supply industry is characterized by a multitude of utilities and widely diverging prices, possibly resulting from structural differences beyond the control of firms’ management, but also from inefficiencies. In this article, we use Data Envelopment Analysis and Stochastic Frontier Analysis to determine the utilities’ Technical Efficiency (TE) scores based on cross-sectional data from 373 public and private water utilities in 2006. We find large differences in TE scores even after accounting for significant structural variables like network density, share of groundwater usage and water losses.     

Cyclical comovements in energy-related venture capital investments

This article examines the cyclical comovements of venture capital investments in the energy sector and key macroeconomic variables. In particular, we decompose the cyclical component of two venture capital investment series (clean technology and industrial/energy) and several macroeconomic factors including oil prices. A number of important cyclical relationships are documented such as increases in crude oil prices tend to signal future venture capital investment in both energy-related sectors and these investments tend to move concurrently with movements in the overall economy     

The effects of water temperature in aquaculture management

This study examines the impact of water temperature on the optimal management of the ration size and fish weight in off-shore farm aquaculture. A model for the expected returns of the farm is developed which includes a fish growth function influenced by fish weight, the ration size and water temperature. The output transportation cost has an ambiguous effect on the harvesting size, but the impact of water temperature is positive. These results explain empirical evidence in the Canary Islands that unfavourable economic conditions could be overcome by environmental advantageous conditions raising productivity.     

Determinants of residential water demand in Germany

We econometrically analyze the impact of several economic, environmental and social determinants for the per capita demand for water in about 600 water supply areas in Germany. Besides prices, income and household size, we consider the effects of population age, the share of wells, housing patterns, precipitation and temperature. We also explore why current per capita residential water consumption in the new federal states is about 30% lower than in the old federal states. Since average cost pricing may cause an endogeneity problem, we apply instrumental-variable procedures in addition to single equation ordinary least squares, but find no evidence that prices are endogenous. Our estimation results suggest that the price elasticity of water demand in Germany is around − 0.24. The income elasticity is positive, decreases with higher income levels and is at least three times higher in the new federal states than in the old federal states. Current differences in prices and income levels explain about one third of the gap in residential water use between the two regions. Household size and the share of wells have a negative impact on per capita water demand, and water use increases with age. Finally, the findings provide some evidence that rainfall patterns rather than total rainfall affect water consumption, while temperature appears to have no impact at all. All outcomes are robust to a log-log and two types of semi-log specifications for the water demand function.     

Agricultural impacts on water quality and implications for virtual water trading decisions

Research on the flow of virtual water associated with agricultural crop production and trade has focussed almost entirely on water quantity. It is pertinent to consider and quantify the opportunity costs in terms of reduced water quality associated with crop production. This paper investigates the impacts of water quality on virtual water trading by creating a proxy for water quality impacts by calculating the amount of water required to dilute nonpoint-source agrochemical inputs to relevant water quality guideline values. The quantity of water required for dilution of five agrochemicals (two nutrients; nitrogen and phosphorus and three insecticides; azinphos-methyl, chlorpyrifos and endosulfan) was estimated for five crops in South Africa (maize, wheat, sugar cane, citrus and cotton) and compared to consumption of irrigation water (blue water) and rainfall (green water) for the same crops. Results indicate that the volume of water required for dilution is similar to the total sum of green and blue water required for crop production, but significantly greater than blue water use (irrigation use). For all crops phosphorus losses require greater amounts of water for dilution than for nitrogen, while pesticides result in the greatest water quality use. Estimates of water quality use are based on assumptions for a number of input variables (i.e. fertilizer application rates, percentage loss of agrochemicals from cropped areas). A Monte Carlo analysis (5000 iterations) was run to randomly select input variables from within defined ranges. Water quality use was calculated and expressed as a factor of blue water use. For all crops the average factor indicated that the volume of water required for dilution of all agrochemicals was greater than that required for irrigation. The results of this study clearly indicate that the impacts of agriculture on water quality need to be considered in virtual water trading scenarios. The incorporation of a method to predict impacts on water quality provides a comparative tool which generates a more holistic frame of reference for decision making with regard to impacts on the water resource and virtual water trading.     

International trade of scarce water

Recent analyses of the evolution and structure of trade in virtual water revealed that the number of trade connections and volume of virtual water trade have more than doubled over the past two decades, and that developed countries increasingly import water embodied in goods from the rest of the world to alleviate pressure on domestic water resources. At the same time, as demand continues to increase and climate change threatens to alter hydrological cycles, water scarcity is a growing problem. Does research into virtual water trade need to consider water scarcity and differentiate flows out of water-scarce regions from flows out of water-abundant regions? Previous studies sum and compare virtual water volumes originating in countries experiencing vastly different degrees of water scarcity. We therefore incorporate water scarcity into an assessment of global virtual water flows. We use input–output analysis to include indirect virtual water flows. We find that the structure of global virtual water networks changes significantly after adjusting for water scarcity.     

Asymmetry in Okun's law

Abstract.  In this paper we support the proposition that the output‐unemployment relationship as represented by Okun's law is asymmetric. Okun's coefficients are defined based on a dynamic model that allows for asymmetry in the relationship between cyclical output and unemployment. Using data from the United States for the post‐war period, our results show that the short‐run effects of positive cyclical output on cyclical unemployment are quantitatively different from those of negative ones, and the data are consistent with the proposition that cyclical unemployment is more sensitive to negative than to positive cyclical output. Several theoretical explanations of asymmetry rationalize the findings. JEL Classification: C13, C22, E32     

谱分析方法及其在经济周期研究中的应用——以美国经济周期波动(1930-2009)的谱分析为例

谱分析方法弥补了时域分析的不足,它把经济时间序列分解为具有不同振幅、相位和频率的数个周期分量的叠加,通过比较各周期分量的相对重要性,找出原序列中隐含的各个主要周期分量,从而为说明经济周期波动的内在机制、经济周期波动的监测预警及其对策研究提供依据。根据该方法确定的各主要周期长度值,还可建立周期波动序列的三角函数叠加拟合模型,并可通过该模型实现对经济波动的预测。本文介绍了谱分析方法的原理,并运用此方法对美国1930年至2009年间的经济周期进行了研究。     

The relative economic efficiency of urban water utilities in regional New South Wales and Victoria

In recent times the relative economic efficiency of urban water utilities has been neglected as policymakers sought to secure urban water supplies. This paper is an effort to measure the efficiency consequences of a number of recent urban water policy initiatives. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is employed in order to measure the relative technical efficiency of urban water utilities in regional New South Wales (NSW) and Victoria. We show that the almost universal policy of water restrictions is likely to reduce relative efficiency and the typically larger utilities located in Victoria are characterised by a higher degree of managerial efficiency. A number of implications for urban water policy are advanced.     

Fisheries Management Under Cyclical Population Dynamics

Cycles in environmental conditions (e.g., sea-surface temperature) directly impact fish growth. This paper extends the classical Gordon-Schaefer fishery model by replacing the constant growth rate with a cyclical growth rate. The optimal harvest rate is shown to fluctuate, but the cycle of the harvest rate lags the cycle of the biological growth function with the highest harvest rate occurring after biological conditions start to decline. Simulations contrast various fishing policies and illustrate the proclivity to crash a fishery if it is wrongfully managed as if there is a constant growth rate with i.i.d. environmental shocks. Finally, we show that small cyclical fluctuations in one species can result in large fluctuations in the optimal harvest rate of another species if the fish species are interlinked through predator-prey relationships.      

人民币汇率定价的逆周期因子：启用时间、驱动因素与实施效果*

本文对2017年5月—2019年9月期间人民币汇率定价过程中逆周期因子的使用进行了测算，并构建非限制性VAR模型分析了中国央行两次启用逆周期因子的驱动因素和实施效果。研究发现：第一，相对于官方公布时间，两次逆周期因子调节均呈现出提前开始和滞后结束的情况，且调整幅度呈现逐渐收窄的趋势；第二，第二次逆周期因子的调节幅度大于第一次；第三，人民币汇率波动是第一次逆周期因子调节的主要驱动因素，而离岸在岸汇价差和汇率政策不确定性是第二次逆周期因子调节的主要驱动因素；第四，两次逆周期因子调节均对人民币汇率波动产生了抑制作用，但加剧了离岸市场人民币贬值预期。     

人民币汇率定价的逆周期因子：启用时间、驱动因素与实施效果*

本文对2017年5月—2019年9月期间人民币汇率定价过程中逆周期因子的使用进行了测算，并构建非限制性VAR模型分析了中国央行两次启用逆周期因子的驱动因素和实施效果。研究发现：第一，相对于官方公布时间，两次逆周期因子调节均呈现出提前开始和滞后结束的情况，且调整幅度呈现逐渐收窄的趋势；第二，第二次逆周期因子的调节幅度大于第一次；第三，人民币汇率波动是第一次逆周期因子调节的主要驱动因素，而离岸在岸汇价差和汇率政策不确定性是第二次逆周期因子调节的主要驱动因素；第四，两次逆周期因子调节均对人民币汇率波动产生了抑制作用，但加剧了离岸市场人民币贬值预期。     

Cyclical asymmetry in fiscal variables in the EU

In this paper we present a stylised framework of fiscal policy determination that considers both structural targets and cyclical factors. We find significant cyclical asymmetry in the behaviour of fiscal variables in a sample of fourteen EU countries over 1970–2007, with budgetary balances (both overall and primary) deteriorating in contractions without correspondingly improving in expansions. Analysis of budget components reveals that cyclical asymmetry comes from expenditure. We find no evidence that fiscal rules introduced in 1992 with the Treaty of Maastricht affected the cyclical behaviour of fiscal variables. Numerical simulations show that cyclical asymmetry inflated average deficit levels, contributing significantly to debt accumulation.     

BUSINESS CYCLES AND ADMISSIONS TO SUBSTANCE ABUSE TREATMENT

We study the effect of business cycles on admissions to specialty substance abuse treatment using administrative data between 1992 and 2015. We proxy business cycles with the state unemployment rate and apply a panel fixed‐effects model. While previous economic research has shown that substance abuse is counter‐cyclical, we observe no change in the total number of admissions across the business cycle. However, focusing on average effects misses important heterogeneity. In substance‐specific regressions we find statistically significant evidence that heroin‐related admissions are counter‐cyclical while stimulant‐related admissions are procyclical. Our findings add to the literature on business cycles and health. (JEL I1, J2)     

WHY THE COMPOSITE INDEX OF LEADING INDICATORS DOES NOT LEAD

This paper assesses the real-time performance of the Commerce Department's composite index of leading indicators. The authors find that the composite leading index has failed to provide reliable advance warning of cyclical turning points. One reason for this failure is that the leading index's transition from expansion to contraction generally is not very sharp. Consequently, discerning real-time cyclical peaks in the index is difficult. Transitions from contraction to expansion on average are sharp. However, cyclical troughs in the leading index often precede cyclical troughs in the economy by only a few months. Thus, even timely recognition of troughs in the leading index fails to provide advance warning of turnarounds in the general level of economic activity .     

地方财政政策逆周期调节：财政分权还是债务增发*

财政政策工具实际操作偏离最初设计将会降低政策工具的调控效果，导致宏观经济波动加剧。针对地方政府财政政策的逆周期性调控目标，本文关注财政分权深化和政府债务增发的逆周期性效应。研究发现：地方政府财政政策总体呈现顺周期特征。财政分权程度的提高放大了地方财政政策的顺周期性。地方政府债务增发使地方财政政策呈现逆周期特征。地方政府财政政策及其收入面、支出面均呈现顺周期性，由“顺”转“逆”的债务平衡点分别为0137，0113，0209。当前绝大部分地区的债务规模都在债务平衡点之下。驱动地方政府债务逆周期调控的内在因素是官员晋升激励。晋升激励的程度越高，地方债务逆周期调控的力度就越大。但外部市场融资环境的波动削弱了地方政府债务逆周期调控的力度。本文的政策主张是，不宜过度财政分权，应该扩大地方债发行规模，促使地方财政政策逆周期调节。     

The simple analytics and empirics of the cyclical profit squeeze and cyclical underconsumption theories: Clearing the air

This paper examines the controversies that exist between the cyclical profit squeeze (CPS) and nutcracker theories of cyclical crisis. The simple analytics and empirics of both theories are examined. It is shown that the criticisms of the CPS advanced by Sherman (1997) are invalid, and that the two components of the nutcracker theory—a cyclical underconsumption crisis plus a non-labor cost-induced decline in profits—have little relevance for explaining postwar U.S. business cycles.     

PRICING FOR WATER CONSERVATION

Water utilities tend not to use prices to encourage conservation. Many utilities still use declining block rates. Even after switching to ascending blocks, however, some have hookup charges that amount to fixed charges of more than half the cost of water. Converting the hookup charge from aflat amount to an amount based on actual water use could lead to substantial savings in usage and cost. In Denver, where a hookup charge now is equivalent to $400 per year added to one's mortgage, the savings in usage that would result from a usage-based hookup charge are estimated at between 9 and 32 percent of total use. A usage-based hookup charge would substitute for a proposed dam costing more than $500 million. Structuring prices to control usage would be far simpler than implementing the conservation programs now being proposed in some water utilities, would result in lower water costs for anyone desiring lower costs, and would allow individuals to choose whether to conserve but require them to pay the costs of their decision.     

Endogenous overhead costs,firm size,and fiscal shocks

Recent empirical observations indicate that firm size responds to cyclical fluctuations in economic activities. By analyzing the effects of endogenous overhead costs in the economy, this paper finds that in response to a fiscal expansion, firm size will increase if the relationship between overhead costs and the number of firms is positive, while firm size will decrease if the relationship is negative.