The Institutional Concentration of Authors in Top Journals of Economics During the Last Two Decades

This paper addresses the institutional concentration of authors in 15 top economics journals from 1977 to 1997. The concentration of authors' PhD affiliations is substantially higher than the concentration of authors' current affiliations. Relating input indicators, such as population, number of universities with economics departments, or manpower in economics, to publication output reduces the US dominance considerably, whereas Israel and the United Kingdom come out excellently. Exporters and importers of PhDs among universities are identified. Concentration ratios like the Herfindahl-Index lack a clear time trend. Nevertheless, the position of the United States has been weakening in recent years.     

Liability dollarization,exchange market pressure and fear of floating: empirical evidence for Turkey

US and British unemployment rates for non–white males and females are compared over the period 1970–1998. Whereas US rates remained fairly steady, there was a marked increase in British non–white unemployment rates. The reasons for this poor performance, relative to the good performance of US non–whites are explored. It is shown that non–white unemployment behaves in different ways across the two countries. For example, British rates rise faster in a recession than white rates, whereas US rates appear not to follow this British hypercyclical pattern.     

Measuring the extent of earnings discrimination: an update

Ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and data from the March 1990 Current Population Survey are used to estimate yearly earnings averages for white males, white females, black males and black females. In order to test for the possible existence or gender and/or race discrimination, earnings estimates are decomposed, using the tradional Oaxaca (1973) and Blinder (1973) methodology. In comparing these results with those from Carlson and Swartz (1988, using 1979 data), we find that overall and unexplained residual differences have declined quite substantially, but that they still favour white males. We then incorporate an extension of the traditional methodology (Jackson and Lindley, 1989) which allows for testing for the significance of enexplained residuals, and for jointly testing for the significance of residual effect components, the constant and coefficient effects. These results call into question the unambiguous conclusion that earnings differentials uniformly favour white males. Strong support is found for the Jackson–Lindley contention that significant and positive residuals may have have offsetting signs. More specifically, where males appear to receive an entry level premium, as measured by constant effect differentials, but other groups appear to receive favourable treatment as measured by response rates to changes in independent variables (the coefficient effect). This result suggests that efforts may be underway to ‘make up’ for the entry level white male premium.     

An empirical study on public capital spillovers from the USA to Canada

The effect of public capital on private sector productivity has received much attention in the literature. The impact of an adjacent country's public capital on domestic productivity has, however, not been previously examined. This paper attempts to fill this gap by examining the possibility of such spillovers from the USA to Canada. Due to close proximity of both countries, the hypothesis of the paper is that these spillovers are important. A production function model introduces US public capital as an exogenous variable and tests for its significance. The results indicate positive spillovers from the USA public capital to Canadian productivity.     

Gender difference in the impact of retirement on cognitive abilities: Evidence from urban China

This paper examines the impact of retirement on cognitive functioning by gender in urban China and investigates the underlying mechanisms. Based on data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, the paper uses the mandatory retirement ages and different policy enforcement between the public and private sectors as instruments for retirement status. The analysis finds substantial gender heterogeneity in the effect of retirement on cognition, with a positive and significant effect for males, but a negative and less significant effect for females. The beneficial effects on cognition are stronger for male blue-collar workers, who are likely to pursue a more active lifestyle at retirement. Further investigation shows that the results are partly driven by differential behavioral changes at retirement, and the gender difference in retirement ages may also play a potential role.     

Gender Differences in Research Patterns Among PhD Economists

This study is based on a 1996 survey of PhD economists working in the academic and nonacademic sectors since 1989. Despite a raw gender difference in all types of research output, the male dummy variable proves statistically significant in predicting only one publication measure. In a full sample and faculty subsample, number of years since receipt of PhD, publication in a refereed journal as a graduate student, and the total number of presentations made in professional forums were consistently, positively related to research productivity. The importance of other independent variables varies by research output. Typically unavailable variables such as workload, time use, submissions data, and family circumstances are also examined.     

Evidence on the cross-country transmission of monetary shocks

The international transmission of monetary shocks between the US and Canada is explored. Focusing on real variables such as consumption, investment, employment, and the bilateral trade balance, along with measures of US and Canadian money, the empirical analysis examines the impact of a monetary shock in one country on real activity in both countries. The long-run analysis provides evidence of cointegration among the variables and suggests that money plays an important role in the equilibrium relationships between the two countries. Variance decompositions and impulse response functions reveal interesting avenues of real transmission in the short run. The short-run analysis provides strong evidence that US monetary shocks affect real activity in both the USA and Canada. The analysis also indicates that Canadian monetary disturbances affect Canadian and US real activity, and that many of these effects are similar in magnitude to the effects of US monetary shocks. The importance of the nominal exchange-rate regime is also discussed.     

The evolution of stock market efficiency in the US: a non-Bayesian time-varying model approach

A non-Bayesian time-varying model is developed by introducing the concept of the degree of market efficiency that varies over time. This model may be seen as a reflection of the idea that continuous technological progress alters the trading environment over time. With new methodologies and a new measure of the degree of market efficiency, we examine whether the US stock market evolves over time. In particular, a time-varying autoregressive (TV-AR) model is employed. Our main findings are: (i) the US stock market has evolved over time and the degree of market efficiency has cyclical fluctuations with a considerably long periodicity, from 30 to 40 years; and (ii) the US stock market has been efficient with the exception of four times in our sample period: during the long recession of 1873–1879; the recession of 1902–1904; the New Deal era; and the recession of 1957–1958 and soon after it. It is then shown that our results are partly consistent with the view of behavioural finance.     

Gender‐specific Human Capital,Openness and Growth: Exploring the Linkages for South Asia

Using data covering 1970–2008 for South Asia, this study investigates the influence of human capital disaggregated by gender, on economic growth. We use an extended version of the Solow growth model with per capita gross domestic product (GDP) a function of the key variables, viz. physical capital accumulation, human capital accumulation, trade openness and capital flows, fiscal policy and financial development. The key contribution of this study is to show that openness when interacted with the human capital stock disaggregated by gender, has differential impacts on economic growth. While the positive impact of male secondary schooling captures the direct skill effect relative to primary schooling, the marginal influence of female primary/secondary schooling fails to show a positive impact on growth at higher levels of openness. An implication stemming from this study is that educational opportunities for females at the secondary level should be increased for South Asia.     

A Tacit Monetary Policy of the Gulf Countries: Is There a Remittances Channel?

The strong economic ties between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies and the USA are manifested in three ways: currency peg, coupling of monetary policy, and the adoption of the US dollar as the trading currency for oil. This paper examines how these dynamics result in a misalignment of the US monetary policy with the business cycles of the GCC economies. The study shows how the staggering amount of remittances outflow of the GCC economies plays a stabilizing role as a tacit monetary policy tool. Incorporating remittances in the money‐demand equation results in a more robust model than otherwise. We further find that the effect of the Federal Funds rate on money demand in these countries diminishes in significance during the period of oil boom between 2002 and 2009. However, the transmission effect of the recession periods in the USA into the demand for money in the GCC countries is not statistically significant.     

Do Recent PhD Economists Feel Prepared to Teach Economics?

A survey of recent economics PhDs who graduated from U.S. PhD programs and are now teaching in either the United States or Canada revealed that only half of the respondents who taught a stand-alone course during their doctoral program had any teacher preparation training. Those who did have training only felt “adequately” prepared for teaching. However, as a general rule, the respondents felt that they were well-prepared for teaching at the completion of their graduate program. The authors did not find significant differences in the responses of those who did complete formal pedagogical training during their doctoral program and those who did not. Those who completed training during their doctoral program appear to currently be more enthusiastic about training.     

JOB SATISFACTION OF THE HIGHLY EDUCATED: THE ROLE OF GENDER, ACADEMIC TENURE, AND EARNINGS

The determinants of job satisfaction are estimated for PhD‐level scientists in the United States across academic and nonacademic sectors. In initial estimates, female scientists report lower job satisfaction than males in academia but higher job satisfaction than males in the nonacademic sector. While academic scientists with tenure have substantially greater job satisfaction than nonacademic scientists, we show that the magnitude of this influence varies by gender. After correcting for the lower evaluation placed by females both on earnings and on tenure, female academic scientists actually match nonacademic scientists in reporting greater job satisfaction than men.     

Endogenous mergers and cost heterogeneity

This study analyses early retirement pathways for Norwegian male and female workers, applying a multinomial logit model to a data set covering more than 10500 employees, ages 56-61, in 1989. The aim is to analyse the transition to different destinations, i.e. disability pension, unemployment benefits, and out of the labour force, in the period 1989-1995. Both family characteristics, expected income in different end-states, and push factors, such as industry attachment and local unemployment, are important for the early retirement process. Findings also indicate that there are several gender differences. The explanatory variables have different effects on the different exit routes for males as well as for females. The hypothesis that disability and unemployment are exchangeable pathways into early retirement is rejected.     

Forecasting recessions using financial variables: the French case

In this article, we focus on the ability of two financial variables—the yield curve spread and the euro–US dollar exchange rate—to predict French recessions over the period 1979–2010. First, we propose a turning point chronology for the French business cycle based on a classical conception of economic cycles and a non-parametric dating algorithm applied to the real GDP series. Second, static and dynamic probit models are developed and estimated to produce the recession probabilities. In-sample results show that the dynamic specification performs better than the static one and, above all, that the exchange rate has a stronger predictive power than the yield curve. Out-of-sample results finally confirm the predominant role assigned to the exchange rate in predicting the latest recession occurred in 2008.     

The limited usefulness of macroeconomic Bayesian VARs when estimating the probability of a US recession

The Bayesian VAR model provides a convenient tool for generating predictive densities and making probability statements regarding the future development of economic variables. This paper investigates the usefulness of standard macroeconomic Bayesian VAR models to estimate the probability of a US recession. Defining a recession as two quarters in a row of negative GDP growth, the probability is estimated for two quarters of the most recent US recession, namely 2008Q3–2008Q4. In contrast to judgemental probabilities from this point in time, it is found that the BVAR assigns a very low probability to such an event. This is true also when survey data, which generally are considered as good leading indicators, are included in the models. We conclude that while Bayesian VAR models are good forecasting tools in many cases, the results in this paper raise question marks regarding their usefulness for predicting recessions.     

US stock market sensitivity to interest and inflation rates: a quantile regression approach

This article studies the sensitivity of the US stock market to nominal and real interest rates and inflation during the 2003–2013 period using quantile regression (QR). The empirical results show that the stock market has a significant sensitivity to changes in interest rates and inflation and finds differences across sectors and over time. Moreover, the effect of changes in both interest rates and inflation tends to be more pronounced during extreme market conditions, thus distinguishing expansion periods from recession periods.     

Technology News and the US Economy: Time Variation and Structural Changes

This article examines the time‐varying impact of technology news shocks on the US economy during the Post‐World War II period using a time‐varying parameter vector autoregression. The identification restrictions on the sign of the contemporaneous responses of observable variables are derived from a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model and robust to parameter uncertainty. I find that the variance of news shocks has decreased over time, contributing to the Great Moderation in real activity and inflation. The importance of news shocks is, however, modest compared to technology surprise and non‐technology shocks. Finally, I obtain evidence in favor of a substantial decline in wage rigidity, while the transmission to other variables has been stable.     

Why Have Corporate Profits Declined? An International Comparison

The paper compares the trends and determinants of US profits with those of Japan, Germany, and Canada in a model of pricing-to-market in the export and domestic markets. It is found that during the 1970s increasing unit production costs lowered profits in all countries. After 1980, cost factors still affected profits except in the USA where lower real import prices depressed profits. It is shown that a currency appreciation hurts US profits three times more than Japanese profits via the imported inputs channel. This finding may explain why an overvalued currency is sustainable for a longer period in Japan than in the USA.     

GENDER EARNINGS DIFFERENTIALS AND REGIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN URBAN CHINA, 1988–97

Gender earnings differentials in urban China by region and their changes during the first decade of economic reform are examined. It is found that the female–male earnings ratio increased during the early stage of reform. The male earnings premium, overall, showed an increasing trend in the later stage of reform. Decomposition of the gender earnings differential reveals that a relatively lower percentage of the differential could be explained by gender differences in productive characteristics in the fast growing regions and in regions with a rapid pace of reform. The cross-sectional results highlight the possible existence of gender discrimination, particularly in the later stages of economic reform and development. Both market competition and the effects of wage decentralization play a role in shaping the gender earnings differentials. Gender earnings differentials varied by region and over time, generally in tandem with the pace of economic reform and development. The decomposition of the over time changes in the earnings gap indicated that improvement in the productive characteristics of females during the reform period constantly enhanced the earnings of females relative to those of males. The changes over time in the return to female characteristics, however, work to counter any narrowing of the gender earnings gap.