Private savings and transition

After the collapse in the early transition years, saving rates in Eastern European EU‐accession countries have recovered strongly. But is private saving in these countries now driven by the same forces as in the EU? A GMM estimator is applied to analyze the determinants of private saving in both country groups. The main results are: saving rates are rather persistent; income growth increases saving, whereas public saving crowds out private saving. There is evidence that in both country groups domestic saving and foreign capital operate at least partly as substitutes, which is an indicator for international financial integration. The long‐run effects of income growth and public saving are larger in the EU‐15 than in the EU‐accession countries.     

Too much for retirement? Saving in Italy

We use Italian repeated cross-sectional data from 1984 to 1998 to highlight trends in Italian household saving. The use of repeated cross sections allows us to control for the presence of cohort effects, which are important determinants of the level of saving. The data are drawn from the Bank of Italy Survey of Income and Wealth. The reliability of the saving measure is assessed also using data from the ISTAT Survey of Household Budgets. The purpose of the paper is to provide a set of stylized facts about household saving in Italy. At a more general level, the paper also highlights the importance of distinguishing between discretionary saving and mandatory saving when analysing household behaviour and comparing saving across countries.     

Saving,fertility and public policy in an overlapping generations small open economy

Motivated by the recent increase of public debt experienced by many developed countries, we develop an OLG model to provide the fiscal policies needed for any public debt level to be sustainable in steady state and the consequences that such policies produce on saving and fertility in a small open economy. Our main finding is that a reduction of public debt (an event currently publicly debated) needs tax adjustments that eventually will be detrimental for both fertility and saving under a low-interest-rate regime (possibly similar to the current world regime), with opposite transitional effects on fertility and saving. On the contrary, the needed fiscal adjustments will eventually increase saving and fertility under a high-interest-rate regime, with opposite transitional effects on fertility and saving. Besides providing clear-cut policy implications, our analysis offers possible testable implications concerning the pattern of fertility, taxes and public debt observed in many developed economies.     

Age and cohort effects in saving and the German retirement system

As the public pay-as-you-go pension systems of the ageing industrialized countries are likely to become seriously strained under the growing dependency burden, the question arises whether a society should rely on private savings to finance old-age consumption. This is an empirical question about the magnitude and the flexibility of saving rates. This paper argues that saving rates must increase in an unprecedented fashion in order to compensate for the dependency effect.The paper takes the German case as an example. It analyses saving behaviour in Germany using three waves of the Income and Expenditure Survey. It separates age and cohort effects; computes the demographics induced change in the aggregate saving rate; and compares the magnitude of these excess savings with the increasing burden of the pension system. Finally, a macroeconomic simulation model is used to explore possible paths of the cohort effects in saving rates.     

Determinants of private savings behaviour in Turkey

This study investigates the effects on private saving rates of a number of policy and non-policy variables. The analysis covers the period 1968–1994. The empirical private saving model for Turkey is estimated. The findings support the hypothesis that private saving rates have strong inertia. The evidence indicates that government saving does not tend to crowd out private savings and the Ricardian equivalence does not hold strictly. Income level has a positive impact on private saving rate, and growth rate of income is not statistically significant. From a policy point of view, financial depth and development measures in Turkey suggest that countries with deeper financial systems tend to have higher private saving rates. Private credit and real interest rates try to capture the severity of the borrowing constraints and the degree of financial repression for Turkey. Moreover, the negative impact of life expectancy rate lends support to the life-cycle hypothesis. The precautionary motive for saving is supported by the findings that inflation captures the degree of macroeconomic volatility and has a positive impact on private saving in Turkey.     

Measuring the time‐varying effects of fiscal policy on private saving in the process of financial integration

This paper investigates the effects of fiscal policy, measured as the extent to which private saving is offset by public saving, in the process of international financial integration. Using extensive panel data for 87 countries over the period 1970–2010, we find that the dynamics for the saving offset are highly nonlinear and time‐varying. While the saving offset has gradually declined in line with rapid financial integration in advanced economies, it has remained broadly stable in less financially integrated emerging and developing economies. This implies that the negative wealth effects of fiscal policy in advanced economies have been smaller owing to higher financial integration, which could help governments reduce their debt burdens through the well‐anchored domestic interest rates at the world level.     

Entrepreneurial Saving Practices and Reinvestment: Theory and Evidence

We use a novel enterprise survey to gauge the relationship between saving instruments and entrepreneurial reinvestment. We show that while most informal saving practices are not associated with a lower likelihood of reinvestment when compared with formal saving practices, there is a significantly lower association of saving within the household with the likelihood of reinvesting profits than other savings form, most importantly, formal saving forms. This result is robust to the model specification and controlling for a large array of variables including district‐level fixed effects. We also provide empirical tests to address reverse causation and omitted variable concerns. Our work contributes to the debate on the implications of different saving instruments in developing countries and expands the entrepreneurial financing constraints literature by focusing on internal rather than external funding constraints.     

电网企业节能减排效果分析模型及应用——基于改进TOPSIS法

全球气候变化及能源危机是人类社会发展所面临的重要挑战,如何保障能源供给,促进经济、社会和环境的协调发展成为亟待解决的问题.电网企业作为能源消耗和污染物排放的主要产业,其节能减排效果将对我国节能减排措施的实施起着举足轻重的作用.近年来,智能电网的发展为清洁能源的接入并网与低碳用电技术的运用提供了重要支撑,它不仅能够实现发电侧的清洁生产,而且能够通过需求侧管理实现用户侧的节能减排.本文将从发电侧、供电侧及用电侧三个角度分析构建电网企业节能减排贡献效果的评价指标体系,利用熵权法修正指标权重,然后利用TOPSIS法构建了电网企业节能减排贡献效果评价模型,算例结果表明改进的TOPSIS法适用于从不同角度评价电网企业节能减排的贡献效果.     

Does Gender have any Effect on Aggregate Saving? An empirical analysis

This study investigates the effects of gender on aggregate saving. We test the hypothesis that shifts in women's relative income, which can affect their bargaining power within the household, have a discernible impact on household saving and, by extension, gross domestic saving, due to differing saving propensities by gender. The empirical analysis is based on panel data for a set of semi-industrialised economies, covering the period 1975-95. The results indicate that, as some measures of women's relative income and bargaining power increase, gross domestic saving rates rise. The implied gender disparity in saving propensities may be linked to differences in saving motives based on gender roles, and well as divergent experiences of economic vulnerability. These findings suggest the importance of understanding gender differences in planning for savings mobilisation and in the formulation of financial and investment policies.     

Multi-scale causality between saving and growth: evidence from China

In this article, we use a wavelet-based Granger causality approach to examine the multi-scale causality between saving and growth for China. We show that significant causality runs from saving to growth for most timescales, whereas multi-scale causality from growth to saving is not statistically significant. Our subsample results suggest that economic systems have remarkable effects on the multi-scale causality. Overall, our study provides a novel perspective to deeply explore the relationships between macroeconomic variables.     

EXPLAINING THE SAVING PUZZLES IN URBAN CHINA

This paper identifies two saving puzzles obtained from the Chinese Urban Household Survey data from 1990 to 2006. The first saving puzzle is identified by the time trend of household saving rates, which were stable before 1998, but surged subsequently. The second saving puzzle is associated with the various age profiles of household saving rates, which are not only inconsistent with the prediction of the Life Cycle Hypothesis, but also different from the patterns observed in other economies. This paper constructs pseudo‐panel data and empirically examines the applicability of the habit‐formation model in solving the second saving puzzle through the existence of saving rates and the effects of income‐related variables. On the other hand, the parametric changes of such variables help explain the first saving puzzle. The parametric changes possibly stem from the adjustment of habit stock, the rising transitory shocks of income, and the higher expenditure needs for housing.     

人口老龄化对储蓄率影响的实证研究——来自中国家庭的数据

本文研究了人口老龄化对居民储蓄率的影响。基于中国居民收入分配课题组(CHIP)1988、1995、2002和2007年的调查数据,利用混合截面和虚拟面板进行实证研究的结果表明,人口老龄化对城镇和农村家庭储蓄率的影响呈现显著差异。农村家庭储蓄率随着老龄人口比重的上升而下降,但城镇家庭储蓄率却随着老龄人口比重的上升而上升。根据理论模型,本文发现城乡二元养老保险制度可以解释上述结论。考虑到中国也进入了城市化高速发展阶段,越来越多的农村人口将进入城镇,同时农村的养老保险制度不断完善,我们认为人口老龄化本身不会降低居民储蓄率。     

Social security in a Classical growth model

This paper develops a growth model with overlapping generationsof workers who save for life-cycle reasons and Ricardian capitalistswho save from a bequest motive. The population of workers accommodatesgrowth, so that the rate of capital accumulation is endogenousand determines the growth of employment. Two regimes are possible,one in which workers' saving dominates the long run and a secondin which the long-run equilibrium growth rate is determinedcompletely by the capitalist saving function, sometimes calledthe Cambridge equation. The second regime exhibits a versionof the Pasinetti paradox: changes in workers' saving affectthe level, but not the growth rate, of capital in the long run.Applied to social security, this result implies that an unfundedsystem relying on payroll taxes reduces workers' lifetime wealthand saving, creating level effects on the capital stock withoutaffecting its long-run growth rate. These effects are mitigatedby the presence of a reserve fund, various levels of which areexamined. Calibrating the model to realistic parameter valuesfor the US facilitates an interpretation of the controversiesover the percentage of the national wealth originating in life-cyclesaving and the effects of social security on saving. The modelis offered as an analytical framework for the review of currenttopics in fiscal policy, in particular identifying the socialsecurity reserve fund as a potential vehicle for generatingcapital accumulation and effecting a progressive redistributionof wealth.     

居民储蓄-准货币之主源

该文的主旨是探求广义货币中之准货币部分与居民储蓄行为间的关系.该文利用分析时序数据的经济计量模型,建立和估计出城乡居民的人均消费行为关系,用以推算居民的储蓄潜力.再用居民储蓄潜力来解释银行城乡储蓄总额,最后用银行城乡储蓄总额来解释广义货币中的准货币部分.建模试验结果表明,居民人均储蓄行为具有相当的规律性,而且储蓄与准货币供给之间也存在着相当稳定的关系.该文还就利率、利率差、收入及收入不确定性等因素对居民储蓄的影响,做了各种模拟试验.     

双重不确定性下的流动劳动力储蓄行为--对“中国储蓄之谜”的另一种解读

基于2012年广东省调查数据,从收入不确定性和支出不确定性两个方面研究预防性储蓄对流动劳动力储蓄行为的影响,发现：（1）流动劳动力储蓄行为与收入水平显著相关,高储蓄率是通过“节衣缩食”、维持基本生存消费来实现;（2）流动劳动力储蓄行为与收入不确定性相关,技能程度、签订劳动合同、劳动合同期限年限对流动劳动力储蓄率有显著影响;（3）流动劳动力储蓄行为与支出不确定性相关,在流入地购买社保、户口性质等对流动劳动力储蓄率有显著影响。研究结果拓展了“中国储蓄之谜”的研究领域,为加快实现流动人口城镇化、推动流动劳动力市民化融入提供了初步的经验证据。     

我国节能减排税收政策效应研究

税收政策是我国促进节能减排的重要工具之一。采用Engle-Granger协整检验方法,对我国节能减排税收政策效应的实证研究结果表明,从长期看,节能减排税收收入与我国单位GDP能耗之间存在协整关系,但各个税种的节能减排效应差异较大。其中,增值税的节能减排效果显著,但仍有改善空间,而消费税和资源税并未发挥应有的作用。因此,建议通过全面改革资源税制、扩大消费税征税范围以及优化增值税税率等系列措施,促进我国节能减排税收政策效应的发挥。     

MODELLING PRODUCTIVITY EFFECTS OF TRADE OPENNESS: A DUAL APPROACH*

A cost function framework is used to model the productivity effect of trade openness in terms of cost saving. The idea of ‘cost saving’ is closer to the entrepreneur's view of productivity. An entrepreneur would expect a reduction in the cost of production if trade openness brings any benefits to their firm. The output‐enhancing (primal) productivity effect of openness is obtainable from the cost‐saving (dual) productivity effect through the cost‐output link. The cost‐function framework also enables us to investigate whether trade openness induces firms to adopt a technology that is biased towards the use or saving of any factor of production. An empirical exercise based on time series data for the Australian two‐digit manufacturing industries reveals significant cost‐saving and output‐enhancing productivity effects of trade openness. Trade openness is biased towards the saving of labour and the use of capital. These results are quite insensitive to the choice of alternative measures of openness.     

Saving and the intra-household distribution of income: an empirical investigation

This paper presents an empirical analysis of the relationship between household saving and the distribution of income within the household. Various theoretical reasons why the level of saving might depend on the latter are given. Some of these can be rationalized within the usual “unitary” model of household decision but others recognize explicitly that different members of the household may have different preferences about how much to save.Particular attention is paid to saving for retirement since the facts that wives are, on average, younger than their husbands and women have longer life expectancies means that wives typically anticipate a longer retirement period than their husbands. Thus wives may prefer to save more for retirement than their husbands.The empirical analysis uses a sample of Canadian households from five Family Expenditure Surveys. These surveys include measures of financial saving as well saving in retirement accounts. After accounting for many of the other influences on saving (for example: age, household composition, occupation and education levels but not household income) we find some effects of the intra-household distribution of income on savings rates. The parameter estimates suggest that the household saving rate decreases with the share of the wife in household income.     

THE REAL RATE OF U.S. NATIONAL SAVING

The conventional measure of national saving in U.S. accounts does not include saving in consumer durables, public investment, or intangible capital. It reflects a measure of net foreign investment that relates in considerable part to original cost rather than market values. It also does not include real capital gains.
Comprehensive, adjusted measures of national saving are calculated for as many of the years from 1946 to 1989 as relevant components are available. They generally suggest much larger rates of national saving than are usually recognized. They also cast a sharp and substantially different light on the likely effects of policies designed to increase provision for the future.     

Countercyclical taxes in a monopolistically competitive environment

In the context of a neoclassical growth model with monopolistic competition, this paper studies the stabilizing effects of countercyclical tax policy when the income tax rate has an additional role of financing government budget deficits. Consistent with the conventional wisdom, countercyclical taxes generally reduce aggregate volatility, unless the fiscal response to debt accumulation is weak. The presence of monopoly power enhances these effects. Even when automatic stabilizers successfully stabilize business cycle fluctuations, countercyclical taxes are welfare inferior, due to reduced precautionary saving motives. While, if the fiscal response to debt is weak and countercyclical tax policy destabilizing, the increased precautionary saving motive is not welfare enhancing as the asset accumulated is government debt rather than capital. These results are generally robust. Nominal inertia may, however, dominate the precautionary saving mechanism.