How useful is the concept of the natural real rate of interest for monetary policy?

The natural rate of interest plays a key role in Wicksell's‘cumulative process’ as well as in modern monetaryequilibrium models of the business cycle. It constitutes a usefulconcept for the theoretical analysis of the interdependenceof monetary policy and economic fluctuations. However, the usefulnessof this concept for the practice of monetary policy is limited—especiallyowing to the fact that the natural real rate of interest andits law of motion cannot be measured with satisfying precision.     

Is inflation targeting or the fixed exchange rate more effective for attracting FDI into developing countries?

This article investigates which monetary policy regime – inflation targeting or the fixed exchange rate – is more effective for attracting FDI inflows into developing countries. Using propensity score matching and the difference-in-differences estimator, we find no evidence that adopting an inflation targeting regime would be more effective than adopting a fixed exchange rate, and vice versa, in encouraging FDI inflows.     

Is diversity in Delphi panelist groups useful? Evidence from a French forecasting exercise on the future of nuclear energy

This paper further enhances the analytical power of Delphi methodology by identifying the advantages, disadvantages and challenges presented by increasing diversity among panel groups. Using Delphi survey data on the future of nuclear energy in France, we analyze the origins of the variety of judgments within and between two panels: one of experts and one of laypeople. We investigate the determinants of the stability of those opinions both in one given round and over several rounds of opinion-formation. We reach an apparently paradoxical conclusion: that non-expert judgment is less stable, but not necessarily less accurate, than that of experts, judgments on the part of experts sometimes being clouded by self-interest. Apart from highlighting some factors underlying the controversy over nuclear power, our paper calls for greater participatory democracy in Delphi panels, but also demonstrates the limits of such an extension.     

Is unemployment good for the environment?

Environmental quality is a public good, potentially impacted by everybody. Individual level pro-environmental behavior affects environmental quality in the aggregate. Therefore, it is important to understand what causes individual’s pro-environmental behaviors to change. We quantify the causal effect of one determinant, unemployment, using an EU-27 population representative Eurobarometer survey. Drawing on results from the theory of the private provision of public goods, and recognizing that unemployment decreases income and the opportunity cost of time, we formulate testable predictions that unemployment will decrease the extent of pro-environmental behaviors that require monetary contributions and increase the extent of pro-environmental behaviors that mainly require time/effort. Instrumental variables regressions provide empirical evidence to support these hypotheses. Changes in the unemployment rate within a sub-national region provide the exogenous variation needed to identify the causal effect. Several supplemental questions on the survey provide evidence that environmental issues lose saliency and economic issues gain saliency when one becomes unemployed, suggesting that interested parties may wish to emphasize cost savings of pro-environmental behavior rather than environmental benefits during times of increased unemployment.     

Exchange rate pass-through in the Asian countries: does inflation volatility matter?

This paper presents a nonlinear relationship between exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) and inflation volatility. Through the lens of a threshold framework, we uncover a clear evidence of near to one ERPT to consumer prices once inflation volatility crosses a threshold level of 4.17. Clearly, there are significant differences in the degree of ERPT between the high and low inflation volatility in the inflation targeting (IT) and non-IT Asian countries.     

Labour market forecasting in Germany: is disaggregation useful?

This paper examines whether labour market forecasts can be improved by using disaggregated information. We construct vector-autoregressive models for employment by sector in order to produce out-of-sample forecasts of aggregate employment. Forecast accuracy is compared to univariate models by using Clark/West tests. In an application to German data, it is evident that disaggregation significantly improves the employment forecast. Moreover, using fluctuation-window tests we find that disaggregation yields superior results especially in phases with strong and sustained employment changes.     

Is there a unit root in the inflation rate? New evidence from panel data models with multiple structural breaks

In this article, we examine whether or not the inflation rate for 17 OECD countries can be modelled as a stationary process. We find that (1) conventional univariate unit root tests without any structural breaks generally reveal that the inflation rate contains a unit root; (2) the KPSS univariate test with multiple structural breaks reveals that for 10 out of 17 countries inflation is stationary; and (3) the KPSS panel unit root test reveals strong evidence for stationarity of the inflation rate for panels consisting of countries which were declared nonstationary by univariate tests.     

Is Roger Federer more loss averse than Serena Williams?

Using data from the high-stakes 2013 Dubai professional tennis tournament, we find that, compared with a tied score, (i) male players have a higher serve speed and thus exhibit more effort when behind in score, and their serve speeds get less sensitive to losses or gains when score difference gets too large, and (ii) female players do not change their serve speed when behind, while serving slower when ahead. Thus, male players comply more with Prospect Theory exhibiting more loss aversion and reflection effect. Our results are robust to controlling for player fixed effects and characteristics with player random effects.     

Is the response of the bank of England to exchange rate movements frequency-dependent?

In this paper, we estimate a Small Open Economy Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (SOEDSGE) model of the United Kingdom (UK), with the main focus being to test the hypothesis whether the Bank of England (BoE) responds to (frequency-dependent) exchange rate movements or not. For our purpose, we use an extended quarterly data set spanning the period of 1986:Q2 to 2018:Q1, which in turn includes the zero lower bound situation, and also estimate the SOEDSGE model based on observable data decomposed into its frequency components. We find that the BoE not only responds to exchange rate movements in a statistically significant manner, but also that it primarily focuses on long-term movements of currency depreciations more strongly than short-term fluctuations of the same. In general, our results are also confirmed for three other developed inflation-targeters namely, Australia, Canada and New Zealand.     

Why is it so difficult to outperform the random walk in exchange rate forecasting?

A simulation exercise is used to demonstrate the difficulty to outperform the random walk in exchange rate forecasting if forecasting accuracy is judged by the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) or similar criteria that depend on the magnitude of the forecasting error. It is shown that, as the exchange rate volatility rises, the RMSE of the model rises faster than that of the random walk. While the literature considers this finding to be a puzzle that casts a big shadow of doubt on the soundness of international monetary economics, the results show that failure to outperform the random walk, in both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting, should be the rule rather than the exception. However, the results do not imply that the random walk is unbeatable, because it can be easily outperformed if forecasting accuracy is judged according to criteria such as direction accuracy and profitability.     

Is China's Antidumping More Retaliatory than that of the US?

Antidumping (AD) investigations are widespread. China and the US are two big users and targets of AD investigations. They, respectively, represent developing and developed countries on one hand, and new AD users and traditional AD users on the other. In this paper, using AD filing data of these two countries from 1991 to 2005, we explore whether China's AD is more retaliatory than that of the US. Our results obtained from negative binomial models with maximum likelihood techniques show that although both countries have some degree of retaliatory incentives in their AD filings, China is not more (or may even be less) retaliatory than the US. We also compare the two countries' similarities and differences in their AD responses to other factors such as macroeconomic conditions, contagions, and geographical distance.     

Is trade liberalization a solution to the unemployment problem?

This paper examines how trade liberalization affects the growth rate of sectoral employment in developed and developing countries. The estimation results imply that trade openness in the form of higher trade volumes has not been successful in generating jobs in developing countries. The overall weak, negative employment response to trade volumes may be explained by the negative output response to trade openness in these countries. Our estimates also indicate that higher trade volumes have adverse effect on industrial employment in developed countries. Moreover, while they have positive effect on employment in industry and services in developing countries, trade barriers have adverse effect on employment growth in services for developed countries. Our overall results imply that while trade barriers have relatively little adverse effects and/or in some case a positive effect on employment both in developing and developed countries, higher trade volumes have an adverse effect on industrial employment in developed economies. Thus, trade openness is not in itself a solution to the unemployment problems of developing countries and yet it has not been the prime factor to blame for the lower employment levels in developed countries.     

Is more competition conducive to the macroeconomic performance in the euro area?

One of the main goals of the European Union, laid down, inter alia, in the Lisbon Strategy and in the “Europe 2020” Strategy, is to raise employment. One important means of supporting the creation of new jobs is to increase competition. In this paper, it is shown that on average the mark-up, i.e. the deviation of prices from marginal cost in the euro area still exceeds the levels observed in the UK and in the US. After completion of the Single Market Programme in 1993, the mark-up has declined in the euro area and even more in the UK. Nevertheless, there is a strong cross-country variation between Member States, with a particularly high mark-up ratio found for Italy. Panel estimations show that total factor productivity growth, labour productivity growth and the labour market performance in the euro area could be improved by reducing the mark-up. This could be achieved by a proper institutional design. More competition could indeed improve the macroeconomic performance.     

On the impact of inflation on output growth: Does the level of inflation matter?

This paper investigates the growth effects of inflation on a wide sample of countries, including both industrialized and emerging economies. Relying upon the estimation of smooth transition and dynamic GMM models for panel data, our findings offer strong evidence that inflation non-linearly impacts economic growth. More specifically, there exists a threshold beyond which inflation exerts a negative effect on growth, and below which it is growth enhancing for advanced countries.     

Is the Euro-Area core price index really more persistent than the food and energy price indexes?

The purpose of this paper is to measure the degree of persistence of the overall, core, food and energy Harmonized Indexes of Consumer Prices for the European Monetary Zone (HICP-EAs) and to identify its implications for decision-making in the private sector and in public policy.Using a non-parametric approach, our results demonstrate the presence of a statistically significant level of persistence in four HICP-EAs: headline, core, food and energy. Moreover, contrary to popular belief, the core index does not reflect permanent price changes. We also find evidence that the food and energy price indexes are more volatile and more persistent than the other two price indexes. Our results also show a reduction in persistence for both the headline and the core price indexes after the implementation of the single monetary policy, but not for food and energy.These results have important implications for both the private sector and for policymakers who use the core price index as a reference in their decision-making. In particular, core price index can lead to erroneous perception of price movements.     

Why has wage inequality increased more in the USA than in Europe? An empirical investigation of the demand and supply of skill

During the past two decades the wage gap between high and low skill labour has increased more in the USA than in many European countries. In this paper, the correspondence between occupation and education is used to construct aggregates of skill supply, skill demand and unemployment by skill group that are comparable across countries. Using individual data for years 1983–1994, it is found that the relative demand for skilled labour has increased to a similar extent in the USA and in Europe and that wage inequality remained low in Europe partly because the European relative supply of skill increased much faster than in the USA, and partly because European relative wages were rigid, which caused an increase in unemployment among the low-skilled.     

Is currency seigniorage exogenous for inflation tax in Turkey?

This paper discusses the implications of the validity of the conditioning hypothesis for the maintained money demand equation for an inflation tax analysis. We also test the validity of the quantity-theoretical inflation tax model for the post-1980 quarterly Turkish data by using Johansen cointegration techniques. The results suggest that the tax rate (inflation) is weakly exogenous for the parameters of the long-run money demand (tax base) equation. This result, consistent with a Keynesian endogenous seigniorage-exogenous inflation tax rate theory prior, does not support the hypothesis that the Turkish inflation can be explained by the conventional inflation tax revenue-maximizing motive alone.