Currency hedging with options and futures

This paper examines the optimal hedging decision of a competitive exporting firm which faces concurrently hedgeable exchange rate risk and non-hedgeable price risk. We show that the hedging role of currency options is due to two distinct sources of non-linearity: (i) the multiplicative nature of the price and exchange rate risk; and (ii) the marginal utility function of the firm. In particular, we show that a long put option position is optimal when the price risk is negatively correlated with the exchange rate risk and/or the firm is prudent.     

关于中国铝期货市场套期保值绩效的实证研究

套期保值是企业利用期货市场进行风险控制的重要过程。利用金融衍生产品进行风险管理的关键问题是确定套期保值比率。通过对中国沪铝期货套期保值绩效的实证研究发现基于DVECH-GARCH的动态套期保值比基于OLS的静态套期保值避险效果好。选择一定的套保模型进行对冲交易,铝加工企业能够有效地分散铝现货的市场风险,稳定企业生产经营。     

Currency Quandary: The Choice of Invoicing Currency under Exchange-Rate Uncertainty

Recent studies have derived optimal invoicing strategies for an exporting firm when exchange rates are uncertain. However, these studies fail to explain trade transacted in a third currency (vehicle currency). In this study, we extend existing models to include the possibility that trade occurs in a vehicle currency. We find that under conditions stipulated by existing models, vehicle-currency invoicing is not preferred. The presence of a competing exporter under imperfect competition, however, can induce vehicle-currency pricing. This is consistent with trade in many primary commodities dominated by few exporters with many importers but where commodities are not perfectly homogeneous.     

货币国际化与货币互换市场发展关系的实证分析

笔者研究了2000年10月～2011年3月美国货币互换市场的发展与美国货币国际化程度的关系,结果发现:货币互换市场价格变动的冲击短期内对国际金融市场中美元国际化带来的冲击是难以界定的,而从长期的角度来看,货币互换市场促进了国际金融市场中以美元计价的金融产品的推出,推进了美元国际化.美元的国际化在短期内会扩大美国国内货币互换市场规模,但是,从长期的角度而言,货币国际化的推进不会对货币互换市场带来任何影响.笔者认为中国需要优先发展人民币的货币互换市场,这样,可以有效地抵御海外金融市场的冲击,以达到人民币成为国际经济往来中储备货币的目的.     

Currency appreciation and stock market performance: Evidence from China

This paper analyzes the relationship between the change of the exchange rate and the performance of the Chinese stock market after exchange rate regime and split share structure of stock market reformed in 2005, which is important for us to understand the linkages and mechanisms between the two markets deeply. We find that the exchange rate is highly related with the stock market, and there exists long-term cointegration. The results demonstrate that in the long term, the relationship between the two variables mainly belongs to flow-oriented model; Shanghai A Share index is influenced by the exchange rate, yet Shanghai B Share index has shown less indication of long term interrelation with the exchange rate. In the short term, the relationship between the two variables mainly belongs to stock-oriented models, there are inter influence between the stock market and the exchange market. The paper further analyzes the possible influence of different sector indices to exchange rates. Finally, the paper puts forward some advices and policy suggestions.     

The Optimum Currency Area Puzzle

The theory of optimum currency areas, suggesting the redrawing of currency areas across countries or splitting of national money into several currencies, is at odds with the one-money-one-country pattern that has dominated monetary history for 26 centuries. This paper puts forward an equilibrium approach which, by stressing the influence of the border effect on intranational adjustment, solves the puzzle and analyzes the closely related issue of the viability of monetary unions and regional specialization.     

Modelling information and hedging: The exporting firm

The paper examines the economic role of modelling information on the decision problem of an exporting firm under exchange rate risk and hedging. Information is described in terms of market transparency, i.e., a publicly observable signal conveys more information about the random foreign exchange rate. We analyze the interaction between market transparency and the ex ante expected utility of the exporting firm. It is shown that more transparency on the foreign exchange market may result in higher or lower export production.     

关于债券凸性对冲的构造及检验

债券是人们重要的投资工具之一，在进行投资分析过程中，投资者会运用债券的久期、凸度等指标来衡量债券的利率风险。在投资过程中，投资者可以运用这些指标来构造债券的组合，实现凸性对冲。本文根据凸性对冲的原理：提出了构造债券组合一种方法，并利用最近债券市场的交易数据进行检验，发现确实存在凸性对冲的机会。     

货币危机传染的投资组合模型

传染是近10年货币危机中的一个常见现象。通过构造具有多种风险资产的投资组合模型,可解释造成货币危机传染的多种原因;共同冲击、期望收益率变化、不确定性的增加、风险厌恶程度的变化以及资本损失等,都可以通过影响国际投资者的投资组合而造成货币危机的传染。     

电子货币发展与政府监管问题探析

作为虚拟货币和新的货币表现形式,电子货币现在已成为普遍流通的货币形式。而在电子货币项下,币材、货币单位、发行机构和支付方式的改变会带来诸多监管风险并可能对传统货币理论以及传统货币制度造成冲击,需要政府的监管职能做出积极回应。基于货币安全、稳定和统一的目标,本文建议政府应该从对电子货币发行机构的准入条件实施管理、对电子货币发行机构的营运实施现金准备制度和对电子货币发行机构实施评级制度等三个方面对电子货币进行监管。     

人民币生成储备货币的政策选择

本文认为一个小国的货币生成国际储备货币只有三个必要条件,而一个大国的货币生成储备货币还须附加一个条件.根据这些生成条件和我国的现实情况,人民币生成储备货币的政策选择应该是先升值,然后实行由市场定价的浮动汇率;先让人民币生成储备货币,再实现完全自由兑换.     

Currency Boards in the Balkans; The Political Economy of Currency Boards in the Balkans

MOCT-MOST: Economic Policy in Transitional Economies -     

美国外币报表折算方法的历史演变及对我国的启示

美国外币报表折算方法的演变已走过了大半个世纪,对外币折算方法的选择先后历经了现行汇率法、流动与非流动项目法、货币与非货币项目法、时态法等。美国会计界对外币折算方法的选择与仗用体现了“会计必须适应环境的变化”这一规律,也使我们欣喜地看到全世界外币折算方法的不断完善。而我国在外币报表折算方面王今尚无正式的具体准则,这与我国当前的经济形势很不相符。本文就我国将来出台的《外币折算》具体准则提出几点看法。     

货币的非理性、宗教性和无用性

在经济学中,金钱思维和理性思维是密不可分的,货币本身自然也体现着世俗性和有用性,但精神分析学却证明,无论古代还是今天,金钱及其制度均建基于非理性、宗教性和无用性,健康的经济学应是以生产而非消费为核心的理论。     

The Endogenity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria

A country' suitability for entry into a currency union depends on a number of economic conditions. These include, inter alia , the intensity of trade with other potential members of the currency union, and the extent to which domestic business cycles are correlated with those of the other countries. But international trade patterns and international business cycle correlations are endogenous. This paper develops and investigates the relationship between the two phenomena. Using thirty years of data for twenty industrialised countries, we uncover a strong and striking empirical finding: countries with closer trade links tend to have more tightly correlated business cycles.     

The effects of abandonment options on operating leverage and forward hedging

This paper examines the behavior of the competitive firm under output price uncertainty when the firm is endowed with an abandonment option and has access to a forward market for its output. When the realized output price is less than its marginal cost, the firm optimally exercises its abandonment option and ceases production. The firm lets its abandonment option extinguish, thereby producing up to its capacity, only when the realized output price exceeds its marginal cost. The ex post exercising of the abandonment option as such convexifies the firm's ex ante profit with respect to the random output price. We show that neither the separation theorem nor the full-hedging theorem holds in the presence of the abandonment option. The firm under-hedges its output price risk exposure in the forward market wherein the forward price contains a nonpositive risk premium. When the set of hedging instruments is expanded to include options, we show that both the separation and full-hedging theorems are restored. We further show that the firm prefers options to forwards for hedging purposes when both types of contracts are fairly priced.     

货币替代适宜度分析

货币替代的发生是由于一国居民的客观经济需要造成的，反映了微观经济主体的经济利益；而过高的货币替代程度会对一国经济带来诸多不良影响，严重削弱一国政府的宏观控制能力。因此货币替代有一个最优程度区间，既可以满足居民的合理外币需求，又能保证一国宏观当局对经济的较强控制能力，就就是货币替代适宜度，本文首次明确提出了货币替代适宜度的概念，初步分析了货币替代适宜度的决定方法，并对我国货币替代提出了鲜明的观点。     

亚元:区域性货币合作制度新选择

欧元与美元“二元化”的国际货币体系,使中国在2003年获得9.1%的经济增长率,意大利仍然凭借欧元地位,以0.3%的经济增长速度使其世界排名从第七位超越中国再次跃居第六位,这使亚洲各国更加明确,加强本地区货币合作将改变目前亚洲在国际竞争中所处的不利境地。要使亚洲经济不再作为大国货币的附属品,必须改变现存不公平的国际货币制度,加强地区间金融协调与合作,创立一个稳定的亚洲统一货币才能稳定亚洲金融市场,促进亚洲经济健康发展。在当前形势下分析现存国际货币制度缺陷及现状,讨论亚洲货币合作标准及亚元制度建设进程显得十分重要。     

The Baltic Dry Index: cyclicalities,forecasting and hedging strategies

The cyclical properties of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) and their implications for forecasting performance are investigated. We find that changes in the BDI can lead to permanent shocks to trade of major exporting economies. In our forecasting exercise, we show that commodities and trigonometric regression can lead to improved predictions and then use our forecasting results to perform an investment exercise and to show how they can be used for improved risk management in the freight sector.     

货币危机对产出的影响--一个货币危机的综合模型

不同的货币危机对经济产出水平有不同的影响,文章主要研究货币危机与产出水平之间的关系.文章构造了一个由IPLM曲线和总产出曲线构成的汇率-产出模型,揭示了三代货币危机模型的内在关联性.在这个简单的货币危机综合模型中,第一代货币危机模型和第二代货币危机模型被作为第三代货币危机模型的特例,从而把三代货币危机模型统一起来,解释了不同货币危机对产出水平的不同影响.