An asymmetric error correction model of UK consumer spending

This paper augments the Granger and Lee (Journal of Applied Econometrics, 4, 1989) non-symmetric error (equilibrium) correction model to assess the possibility that, in the aggregate, consumers respond differently to different types of disequilibrium error. This idea is illustrated using an Engle-Granger implementation of the Davidson, Hendry, Srba and Yeo (DHSY, Economic Journal, 80, 1978) model. The disequilibrium error is endogenously determined by the long-run, empirical model and a binary dummy variable captures two alternative states, above and below equilibrium spending. Interaction of the dummy variable with key variables in a short-run dynamic model of UK consumer spending augments the dynamics of the DHSY model. Income elasticities, inflation elasticities and speeds of adjustment are all seen to change significantly depending on whether the disequilibrium error is positive or negative, and is suggestive of asymmetric behaviour on the part of consumers. Moreover, the asymmetrically augmented model substantially outperforms a symmetric model with standard error improvements in excess of 50%.     

Nerlovian area response as an error correction model: An application to Western Canadian agriculture

The relationship between Nerlovian partial adjustment models and error correction models is explored. Unit root tests are employed to test stationarity of price, area and stock data of crops in the Canadian province of Saskatchewan. The data are found to be consistent with unit root non-stationarity. Evidence in favour of cointegrating relationships among area price and stock data is found. However, evidence in favour of the error correction form of the Nerlovian partial adjustment model is weak, indicating that more investigation of richer theoretical and empirical models of the short run dynamics of area response in Saskatchewan is needed.     

Specification via model selection in vector error correction models

This paper proposes a model selection approach for the specification of the cointegrating rank in the VECM representation of VAR models. Asymptotic properties of estimates are derived and their features compared with the traditional likelihood ratio based approach.     

An analysis of wine and food consumption dynamics in Japan using a vector error correction model

This article provides an analysis of long-term equilibrium relationships between wine and food-related consumptions in Japan through the vector error correction model. Utilizing longitudinal data from 1970 to 2009, the analysis suggests that wine consumptions and food-related consumptions are co-integrated. The investigation of orthogonal impulse response functions suggests that food-related items, such as bread, vegetables and eating out are positive factors for wine consumptions. With the expansion of wine consumption and diversification of food consumption patterns, wine is deemed to have gained its place in Japanese ordinary life, regardless of the general state of economy. The estimated results also provide a supporting evidence for previous cross-sectional study findings by others that wine consumers tend to have healthier diet. Despite the downward forecasts for economic performance and some food items, wine consumption is predicted to grow continuously.     

A vector error correction model of the Singapore stock market

This article examines the long-term equilibrium relationships between the Singapore stock index and selected macroeconomic variables, as well as among stock indices of Singapore, Japan, and the United States. Upon testing appropriate vector error-correction models, we detected that changes in two measures of real economic activities, industrial production and trade, are not integrated of the same order as changes in Singapore's stock market levels. However, changes in Singapore's stock market levels do form a cointegrating relationship with changes in price levels, money supply, short- and long-term interest rates, and exchange rates. While changes in interest and exchange rates contribute significantly to the cointegrating relationship, those in price levels and money supply do not. This suggests that the Singapore stock market is interest and exchanges rate sensitive. Additionally, the article concludes that the Singapore stock market is significantly and positively cointegrated with stock markets of Japan and the United States.     

Financial innovation in the UK

This study employs a national survey of over 1100 British financial firms to ascertain the determinants of financial innovation and their sales success using the logit and the generalized Tobit models. We find that the likelihood of financial innovation rises with the size of financial firms, employee education, greater expenditure on research and development, the availability of finance and the extent to which firms cooperate with each other. Perceptions of economic risk and innovation costs are also influential. R&D, cooperation and human capital are the main variables driving the success of financial innovation, measured by the percentage share of innovations sold. Firms in London/the south have a significantly greater tendency to innovate, though Scotland also does well. Stock broking, fund management and related activities are more innovative than firms in the financial intermediation and pension/insurance sectors.     

Money demand in China in the reform period: an error correction model

Based on integration and cointegration test findings, this paper constructs an error correction (ECM) model to evaluate the dynamic adjustment process of money demand in China in the reform period (1979 to 1990). The cointegration tests suggest that some long-run relationship exists among money demand, real income, price, and the real interest rate. The ECM model shows that the dynamic adjustment process of money demand maintains stable and significant relationships to most of its determinants.     

An error correcting model of farmland prices

Granger has demonstrated that if two variables are integrated of order one and are conitegrated, they can be modelled as having been generated by an error correction mechanism. Cointegration and error correction systems allow long-run components of variables to obey equilibrium constraints while short-run components are allowed to have flexible dynamic specification. Using data from five Corn Belt States in the US, we show that farmland prices and cash rents are each integrated of order one and are model is estimated. The error correction term is found to be significant in both equations, indicating Granger causality running in both directions. Historical simulation of the model is performed. The price equation peroformed better although both equations simulate reasonably well.     

A Markov–switching vector equilibrium correction model of the UK labour market

There is a wide literature on the dynamic adjustment of employment and its relationship with the business cycle. In this paper we present a statistical model that offers a congruent representation of part of the UK labour market since the mid 1960s. We use a cointegrated vector autoregressive Markov-switching model in which some parameters change according to the phase of the business cycle. Output, employment, labour supply and real earnings are found to have a common cyclical component. The long run dynamics are characterized by one cointegrating vector relating unemployment to trend-adjusted real wages and output. Despite there having been many changes affecting this sector of the UK economy, the Markov-switching vector-equilibrium-correction model with three regimes (representing recession, normal growth, and high growth) provides a good characterization of the sample data, and performs well relative to alternative linear and non-linear models. The results of an impulse-response analysis highlight the dangers of using VARs when the constancy of the estimated coefficients has not been established, and demonstrate the advantages of generating regime dependent responses. First Version Received: December 2000/Final Version Received: August 2001     

Consumption multipliers of different types of public spending: a structural vector error correction analysis for the UK

The aim of this paper is to investigate the relationship between government spending and private consumption in the UK, for which there is scarce previous empirical evidence. We disaggregate public expenditure into three categories and search for the corresponding private consumption multipliers. Our analysis is based on the estimation of a structural vector error correction model with quarterly non-interpolated data for the period 1981:1–2007:4. Initially, we estimate negative but barely significant effects on consumption of shocks to total public spending. Then, using the public spending breaking down, we find that while shocks to public wages crowd-out private consumption as predicted by neoclassical models, shocks to the non-systematic component of social spending and government purchases of goods and services generate a positive reaction, so to crowd-in private consumption. Thus, the qualitative and quantitative dimensions of fiscal multipliers on private consumption change across different public spending categories. Our findings suggest that any empirical support of competing theoretical models on the issue would benefit from a disaggregation of government expenditure, rather than focusing on the aggregate measure.     

Intercountry evidence on the performance of the simple error correction mechanism model of consumption

This paper estimates a simple error correction mechanism (SECM) model of consumption a la Davidson, Hendry, Srba and Yeo (1978) for 13 OECD countries over the period 1951–1982. This is done for each country separately as well as for the pooled data. The basic results of this study are the following: (i) The SECM model appears as an adequate approximation to the data generating process on an individual country basis as well as in a pooled context. (ii) The pooled within estimator indicates a large and significant disequilibrium term while the between estimator indicates a small and insignificant disequilibrium term. This is consistent with the belief that the within estimator tend to yield short-run estimates while the between estimator tend to yield long-run estimates.The authors would like to thank Baldev Raj and an anonymous referee for helpful comments and suggestions. Mokhtari's research was supported by a grant from UHD/ORG.     

A monetary vector error correction model of the Euro area and implications for monetary policy

In this paper, a vector error correction model for Euro area money, prices, output, long-term interest rate and short-term interest rate with three identified cointegration relations is specified. It is shown that Euro area money and prices can be considered as variables that are integrated of order two or I(2), that is, they have to be differenced twice to become stationary. Accordingly, the relation between money, prices and other macroeconomic variables is analyzed in an econometric framework which is suited for the analysis of I(2)-variables. Monetary policy implications are derived from the estimated system.First revision received: May 2002/Final revision received: May 2003I thank Helmut Lütkepohl, Jürgen Wolters, and two anonymous referees for helpful comments. Financial support from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (SFB 373) is gratefully acknowledged.     

The validity of the ELG hypothesis in the MENA region: cointegration and error correction model analysis

The export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis is examined for nine Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries in three-variable vector autoregressive and error correction models. When considering total exports, the results reject the ELG hypothesis in almost all of these countries. When only manufactured exports are examined, no support is found for ELG in countries with relatively low shares of manufactured exports in total merchandise exports but strong support in countries with relatively high shares. These findings suggest that promoting exports may contribute to economic growth only after a certain threshold of manufactured exports has been reached.     

Post stabilization estimates of money demand in Croatia: error correction model using the bounds testing approach

This paper estimates an error correction model of money demand for Croatia over the post-stabilization period based on the ARDL bounds testing procedure. While industrial production is statistically insignificant for both the M1 and M1A money demand specifications, interest rates, inflation, and the real effective exchange rate have a negative and statistically significant impact. The error correction money demand models appear structurally stable based on the cumulative sum and cumulative sum of square tests.     

Schumpeterian dynamics: An evolutionary model of innovation and imitation

This paper develops a simple evolutionary model of innovation and imitation. It analyzes how dynamic interactions between equilibrating force of imitation and disequilibrating force of innovation mold the evolutionary pattern of an industry's state of technology and shows that in this Schumpeterian world the industry will never approach a neoclassical equilibrium with perfect knowlwdge even in the long run. The paper also examines the steady-state efficiency distribution of firms that characterizes the industry's long run and obtains some comparative dynamics results.     

Environmental regulations and innovation activity in UK manufacturing industries

We examine the relationship between environmental regulations and innovation, using data from UK manufacturing industry during 2000-2006. We estimate a dynamic model of innovation behaviour, and explicitly account for the likely endogeneity of our measure of the stringency of environmental regulations (pollution abatement costs). Our results indicate that while on the one hand environmental R&D and investment in environmental capital are stimulated by greater pollution abatement pressures, on the other hand there is not a positive impact of environmental regulation on total R&D or total capital accumulation. We find some evidence that this is because more stringent environmental regulations directly lower the optimal expenditure on non-environmental innovations. In addition, we find that environmental R&D may crowd out non-environmental R&D, although there is no evidence that environmental capital crowds out non-environmental capital.     

Legacy sectors: barriers to global innovation in agriculture and energy

The US national innovation system has a dual structure: part suited to rapid innovation, and part stubbornly resistant to change. The complex, established ‘Legacy sectors’ that resist change, particularly disruptive innovation, share common features that obstruct the market launch of innovations, over and above the ‘valley of death’ and other obstacles that have been the traditional focus of innovation policy. Innovations in Legacy sectors must penetrate a well-established and well-defended technological/economic/political/social paradigm that favours existing technology, characterised by (1) ‘perverse’ subsidies and price structures that create a mismatch between the incentives of producers and broader social goals, such as environmental sustainability, public health and safety, and geopolitical security; (2) established infrastructure and institutional architecture that imposes regulatory hurdles or other disadvantages to new entrants (3) market imperfections beyond those faced by other innovations: network economies, lumpiness, economies of scale, split incentives, needs for collective action, and transaction costs (4) politically powerful vested interests, reinforced by public support, that defend the paradigm and resist innovations that threaten their business models (5) public habits and expectations attuned to existing technology and (6) an established knowledge and human resources structure adapted to its needs. Beyond these obstacles, more socially desirable technologies that are driven by environmental or other non-market considerations must overcome the lack of agreed replacement standards against which putative alternatives can be judged. We have developed a new, integrative analytic framework for categorising the obstacles to market launch faced by Legacy sectors, and earlier applied this method to energy, health delivery, the long-distance electric grid, building, and air transport. In energy especially, the requirement for innovation is sufficiently urgent that large-scale domestic and collaborative international research should take place even at the cost of possible competitive disadvantage and even if it is some time before the USA adopts carbon charges and thereby puts pressure on the prevailing paradigm of fossil fuel use. We now extend this method to sustainable agriculture. American paradigms in agriculture and in energy are exported worldwide, delaying the development and spread of needed innovations that are not consistent with them. Foreign manufacturers wishing to enter US markets must suit their products in these sectors to American paradigms, while American exports of technology may be insufficiently cost conscious or respectful of environmental sustainability. Developing countries are technology takers and suffer from asymmetric innovative capability. They need to choose sources of technology best suited to their situation. India and China constitute new competitive threats, but also represent ‘innovative developing countries’ that have large domestic markets in which they are launching innovations aimed at their lower income populations.     

Permanent and transitory shocks in the presence of asymmetric error correction

This article highlights the potential importance of asymmetries in the loading vector of a set of cointegrated variables for the construction, analysis and interpretation of permanent and transitory shocks using impulse response functions. We derive an asymmetric version of the Permanent–Transitory decomposition suggested by Gonzalo and Ng (2001) and illustrate the potential importance of such asymmetries using the ‘cay’ data of Lettau and Ludvigson (2004).     

Patterns in UK company innovation styles: New evidence from the CBI innovation trends survey

This paper reports on the results of an analysis at Centre for Research on Innovation and Competition (CRIC) of the data from the 1996 and 1997 Survey of Innovation Trends conducted by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) in conjunction with the NatWest Bank in the UK. This is one of the few, direct surveys of innovation activity, as opposed to R&D and patenting actvity, which is conducted in the UK It is characterized by the fact that it asks responding firms to report on trends in a wide variety of aspects of their innovative behaviour. The central feature of the analysis in this paper is a factor analysis of the answers to a set of 15 questions on different aspects of innovative behaviour. This results in a three-factor solution which reveals three distinct ‘styles’ of innovation in the behaviour of respondents. These three styles are shown to be broadly applicable to both manufacturing industry firms and service industry firms in the sample, thus revealing a dimension of innovation in the service sector which is not so readily disclosed by analysis of R&D or patent statistics. Statistical modelling of the constraints and incentives influencing innovation shows that while constraints do not appear to be very significant, competitive pressure and the utilization of collaborative linkages are strongly positively associated with innovation, and especially with a more radical s o b of innovation. Ihe paper concludes that the CBI survey provides data about innovation in the UK which are not easily provided through other means. Its format allows certain aspects of innovation—particularly the similarities and differences between manufacturing and services —to be examined in an interesting way.     

Patterns in UK company innovation styles: New evidence from the CBI innovation trends survey

This paper reports on the results of an analysis at Centre for Research on Innovation and Competition (CRIC) of the data from the 1996 and 1997 Survey of Innovation Trends conducted by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) in conjunction with the NatWest Bank in the UK. This is one of the few, direct surveys of innovation activity, as opposed to R&D and patenting actvity, which is conducted in the UK It is characterized by the fact that it asks responding firms to report on trends in a wide variety of aspects of their innovative behaviour. The central feature of the analysis in this paper is a factor analysis of the answers to a set of 15 questions on different aspects of innovative behaviour. This results in a three-factor solution which reveals three distinct 'styles' of innovation in the behaviour of respondents. These three styles are shown to be broadly applicable to both manufacturing industry firms and service industry firms in the sample, thus revealing a dimension of innovation in the service sector which is not so readily disclosed by analysis of R&D or patent statistics. Statistical modelling of the constraints and incentives influencing innovation shows that while constraints do not appear to be very significant, competitive pressure and the utilization of collaborative linkages are strongly positively associated with innovation, and especially with a more radical s o b of innovation. Ihe paper concludes that the CBI survey provides data about innovation in the UK which are not easily provided through other means. Its format allows certain aspects of innovation—particularly the similarities and differences between manufacturing and services —to be examined in an interesting way.