Co-breaking,cointegration, and weak exogeneity: Modelling aggregate consumption in Japan

This paper aims to estimate a parsimonious data-congruent model for aggregate real consumption in Japan using quarterly data over the past two decades. Testing co-breaking, cointegration and weak exogeneity plays an important role in pursuing the model reduction. It is demonstrated that co-breaking removes a deterministic shift caused by the collapse of the bubble economy in Japan in the early 1990s. Multivariate cointegration analysis then reveals that inflation plays a critical role in accounting for the long-run behaviour of the aggregate consumption. Further analysis finds that inflation and aggregate income are weakly exogenous with respect to a set of parameters of interest. Finally, a parsimonious data-congruent model for the aggregate consumption is estimated conditional on the set of weakly exogenous variables.     

Bayesian inference in cointegrated systems

In this paper I deal with Bayesian methods for conducting inference on important features of (potentially) cointegrated VAR models involving I(1) variables. Firstly, (informal) inference is made on the cointegrating rank of the system. Secondly, posterior analysis is used to verify the validity of over-identifying restrictions on the cointegration parameters. Thirdly, posterior distributions are obtained for impulse response functions and predictive densities at different horizons. The relevant posterior distributions are obtained by means of Monte Carlo integration. The analysis is based on the use of simple weakly informative priors. Two applications on simulated data and on the Danish money demand data are presented.     

Testing for panel unit roots in the presence of spatial dependency

In this article, the size and power properties of the Common-factor Im, Pesaran and Shin (CIPS), Wald (W), Likelihood Ratio (LR) and Lagrange Multiplier (LM) tests are investigated when the error term follows a spatial error model. In this study, the results from the Monte Carlo simulations, first, show that the CIPS test over-estimates the nominal size. Second, the simulation results show that the empirical size of the W test approaches the nominal size quickly, while the LR and LM tests underestimate the null hypothesis in both small and moderate sample sizes. Finally, the results also show that even though the LM and LR tests under-reject the true-null hypothesis they have higher power than the W test.     

Social security expenditure and GDP in OECD countries: A cointegrated panel analysis

Abstract

Using panel data unit root tests and panel cointegration tests, as well as estimation techniques appropriate for heterogeneous panels such as the full modified OLS, this paper re-examines the long-run co-movement and the causal relationship between GDP and social security expenditure in a bivariate model, employing data on 25 OECD countries from 1980 to 2001. Our cointegration test results show strong evidence in favour of the existence of a long-run equilibrium cointegrating relationship between GDP and social security expenditure after allowing for a heterogeneous country effect. Regarding the panel-based error correction model, we find that GDP and social security expenditure lack short-run causality, but reveal the existence of long-run bidirectional causality. This shows that, in the long run, economic growth must be based on a social welfare policy that should be carried out, and economic growth can facilitate contiguous development in a social welfare policy. Lastly, we also provide evidence to support that social security expenditure can affect growth through the savings and human capital accumulation in OECD countries.     

Testing uncovered interest rate parity using LIBOR

We test uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) using London InterBank Offered Rate (LIBOR) interest rates for a wide range of maturities. In contrast to other markets, LIBOR markets have minimal frictions. Whereas most previous studies reject UIP, we find that UIP holds for several short-term LIBOR maturities using block bootstrap panel unit root tests suggested by Palm et al. (2011) and cointegration techniques by Westerlund (2007). Furthermore, the estimation results suggest that the speed of adjustment to the long-run equilibrium marginally differs across the maturity of the underlying instrument, thus supporting the efficient market hypothesis.     

Who is ruling Europe? Empirical evidence on the German Dominance Hypothesis

The aim of this paper is to analyze the hypothesis of German dominance in the European Monetary System (EMS). For this purpose, we use monthly interest rates for nine European countries from January 1979 to the second half of 1997. In particular, we test the stability of the implied long-run relationships to assess whether there has been a significant change in the EMS performance. The econometric methodology is based on Johansen's maximum likelihood procedure and several tests for parameter instability. The most important finding is that, although Germany has a significant influence on the monetary policy of the other European countries, it is not possible to accept the existence of dominance. First version received: May 1999/Final version received: November 2000     

Cyclical common factors in cointegrated systems

When working with vectors of time series which fluctuate regularly we may possibly want to consider the presence of common factors characterized by cyclical or seasonal behavior as well as trend. For example, Deaton89 provides a hint of a theoretical model where cointegration at the annual frequency may exist between consumption and income in addition to the usual secular cointegration. It is well known that a non-cyclical system cointegrated at frequency zero has a common trend (CT) representation Stock-Watson: 88. In this paper we show that a time series vector that is cointegrated at one or several frequencies simultaneously (e.g. seasonal data) has a common factors (CF) representation which belongs to a class of common factor models that encompasses many cointegrating situations found in the literature. We study these issues and extend the method proposed by Gonzalo-Granger: 95 to the estimation and testing of common factors which may combine trend as well as cyclical or seasonal characteristics. Two illustrative applications are also provided. JEL Classification: C10, C32, C50 Javier Fernández-Macho: Financial support from research group grant 9/UPV00038.321-13503/2001 of UPV/EHU is gratefully acknowledged by both authors and from research project BEC2003-02028 of Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnología by the first author. We are also indebted to two anonymous referees for their helpful comments.     

Estimation of Censored Regression Model: A Simulation Study

We investigate the finite sample performance of several estimators proposed for the panel data Tobit regression model with individual effects, including Honoré estimator, Hansen’s best two-step GMM estimator, the continuously updating GMM estimator, and the empirical likelihood estimator (ELE). The latter three estimators are based on more conditional moment restrictions than the Honoré estimator, and consequently are more efficient in large samples. Although the latter three estimators are asymptotically equivalent, the last two have better finite sample performance. However, our simulation reveals that the continuously updating GMM estimator performs no better, and in most cases is worse than Honoré estimator in small samples. The reason for this finding is that the latter three estimators are based on more moment restrictions that require discarding observations. In our designs, about seventy percent of observations are discarded. The insufficiently few number of observations leads to an imprecise weighted matrix estimate, which in turn leads to unreliable estimates. This study calls for an alternative estimation method that does not rely on trimming for finite sample panel data censored regression model.     

Assimilation of Time Series Data into a Dynamic Bioeconomic Fisheries Model: An Application to the North East Arctic Cod Stock

This paper combines the elegant technique of Data Assimilation and a Monte Carlo procedure to analyze time series data for the North East Arctic Cod stock (NEACs). A simple nonlinear dynamic resource model is calibrated to time series data using the variational adjoint parameter estimation method and the Monte Carlo technique. By exploring the efficient features of the variational adjoint technique coupled with the Monte Carlo method, optimal or best parameter estimates with their error statistics are obtained. Thereafter, the weak constraint formulation resulting in a stochastic ordinary differential equation (SODE) is used to find an improved estimate of the dynamical variable, i.e. the stock. Empirical results show that the average fishing mortality imposed on the NEACs is about 16% more than the intrinsic growth rate of the biological species.     

Financial innovation and regional money

This article studies the effect that financial innovation, which has been very common in recent years, has on money. Using Japanese regional data and the money demand specification, we first provide evidence of instability in the simple money-output relationship. However, when this relationship is extended to include a proxy for a comprehensive measure of financial innovation, the model is found to be stable. Furthermore, consistent with economic theory, evidence is obtained of financial innovation leading to decreased demand for liquid financial assets. In this respect, in Japan demand deposits seem to possess very similar characteristics to cash over recent years.     

Testing fractional integration with monthly data

Seasonal roots can help to explain the seasonal fluctuations in macroeconomic time series. In this paper we concentrate on monthly data and look at different versions of Robinson’s (1994) tests for testing unit roots and other fractionally integrated hypotheses when the root is located at zero and/or at the seasonal frequencies. A Monte Carlo experiment is carried out to check the power of these tests against different fractional alternatives, and an empirical application, using Spanish monthly data for the consumer price index, is also carried out in the article.     

基于面板数据的中国工业能源消费与产出协整分析

通过选取我国1998～2010年工业能源消费的面板数据,运用面板数据的单位根与协整检验,对我国工业能源消费与增加值关系进行了比较研究,实证结果表明我国工业能源消费与增加值之间存在长期协整关系,并且各个工业能源消费对工业值的影响程度不同。在研究结果的基础上,提出了低碳经济背景下促进我国经济增长和能源协调发展的建议。     

Finite sample performance of specification tests for correlated random effects quantile panel regressions

We investigate the finite sample performance of the Abrevaya and Dahl (2008) test for coefficient heterogeneity for a correlated random effects ‘mean’ (CREM) panel quantile regression estimator. We assess size and power of the test over a range of sample sizes and panel dimensions. The test is undersized for small-to-moderate sample sizes and displays low power even with a high degree of heteroscedasticity. Size and power improve substantially in larger samples. Our results provide insight for applied researchers.     

Reassessing forest products demand functions in Europe using a panel cointegration approach

In a panel of European countries, we analyse paper products, sawnwood and wood panels consumption data. With this object, we use a classical demand model where national consumption depends on real GDP and real prices. In contrast to previous panel estimations in the literature, we highlight non-stationarity time series which can lead to spurious regressions. We explicitly take into account the issue by using recent panel cointegration techniques. Cointegration is present for printing paper and fibreboard, though less clear cut for other products. Then we estimate demand elasticities and find that GDP elasticities are significantly lower than estimates from the literature. Finally, we simulate the implications of modified demand elasticities by using a partial equilibrium model of the forest sector. For most products, changes in elasticities would lead to lower projected demand and lower prices over a 20-year time horizon. Lower demand for solid wood and wood fibre would lead to less tensions with fuel wood- and wood-based chemical markets. In a context of rising interest for renewable bio-based products, updated long-term demand models contribute to the analysis of the forest sector’s sustainability.     

我国直辖市信贷规模对房地产价格的影响研究

分析我国4个直辖市1999—2009年的面板数据,运用协整检验及误差修正模型,考察了房地产价格与信贷规模的长期和短期关系。结果表明：第一,直辖市房地产价格与信贷规模存在协整关系,且信贷规模对房地产价格的影响是正向的;第二,短期内信贷规模对房地产价格存在影响,且上期房地产价格的变动对房价有显著影响。     

On the relevance of exports for regional output growth in China

Despite high economic growth during the past decades, China is still vulnerable to shocks arising from industrial states. The advanced economies strongly influence Chinese export performance, with subsequent effects on output growth. Using a production function, this article examines to which extent regional GDP growth in China is export driven. In a panel of 28 Chinese provinces, series are splitted into common and idiosyncratic components, the latter being stationary. The results indicate cointegration between the common components of GDP, the capital stock and exports. In equilibrium, exports increase GDP by more than their impact expected from the national accounts. While exports and capital are weakly exogenous, GDP responds to deviations from the long run. A similar adjustment pattern can be detected for most regions, except for some provinces in the Western part of the country.     

Export-led Growth in South Asia: A Panel Cointegration Analysis

Abstract

In this paper, we attempt to examine the export-led and manufacturing export-led growth hypothesis for four South Asian Countries; namely, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, using Pedroni’s panel cointegration technique for the period 1980–2002. In this context we estimate growth accounting equations to investigate the impact of exports, manufacturing exports and other important physical and human capital variables on both total GDP and non-export GDP. The study finds long-run equilibrium relationship between GDP (and non-export GDP) and exports along with other variables supporting export-led growth hypothesis. The results also substantiate the existence of manufacturing export-led growth hypothesis. Further, we find that export, fixed capital formation, public expenditure on health and education have statistically significant coefficients re-emphasizing the importance of these variables for higher economic growth.     

Testing poolability in a system of dynamic regressions with nonspherical disturbances

This study analyzes the testing of cross-equation restrictions within a set of regression equations. Through Monte Carlo experiments we examine the actual size of various asymptotic procedures for testing the poolability hypothesis, i.e., equal slope vectors across individual equations. Regression models with both lagged dependent variable regressors and nonspherical disturbances are considered. In these models we find that the performance in finite samples of classical asymptotic test procedures using critical values from either or ² approximations is often rather poor. However, employing the original test statistics with bootstrapped critical values leads to much more accurate inference in finite samples. In an empirical analysis of panel data on GDP growth and unemployment rates in OECD countries it is shown that classical asymptotic tests and bootstrap procedures may lead to conflicting test outcomes. I am indebted to Peter Boswijk, Jan Kiviet, Peter Vlaar, the associate editor and 2 anonymous referees for their constructive comments. I want to thank Geoffrey Garrett for kindly making available his data.     

Trade,labour market rigidity,and aggregate productivity in OECD countries

As the economy becomes more open to trade, aggregate productivity can increase by driving out the least productive firms (the selection effect). Since the selection effect reallocates resources toward the more productive firms, this process can be hindered by rigidity in domestic labour market institutions. Based on the selection effect by Melitz (2003), this article empirically examines how rigidity in labour market institutions affects the consequence of trade on aggregate productivity. Findings from panel dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) estimators suggest that a high degree of labour market rigidity in an open economy reduces Total Factor Productivity (TFP). In particular, in the case of extremely high labour market rigidity but low foreign R&D capital stocks, openness to trade can cause a country to experience decreasing TFP.     

Migration and labour markets in OECD countries: a panel cointegration approach

This article examines the interaction between immigration and the host labour market of 14 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries using nonstationary panel data methodology. We estimate a trivariate Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and derive causality tests to simultaneously assess the long- and short-term macroeconomic impact of newcomers on wages and unemployment levels in the host country. The results suggest that an increase of migrants is likely to increase wages in the destination countries in the short run but to increase them in the long run. There is no evidence of adverse effects on unemployment due to immigration in short and long-term except for Anglo-Saxon countries in the short term. Our findings also show that immigration is conditioned by levels of unemployment and wages especially in Anglo-Saxon countries.