The debt hangover: Renegotiation with noncontractible investment

This paper analyses the incentives of the equityholders of a levered company to undertake noncontractible investments. This noncontrability is shown to seriously impede the efficiency of any renegotiation process in the debt overhang problems. Conditions for obtaining a fully efficient level of investment choice are derived.     

Investments and uncertainty revisited: the case of the US economy

This article examines the relationship between investments and uncertainty for the US economy, as the latter is approximated by consumer sentiment, purchasing managers’ prospects and economic policy uncertainty. Contrary to the existing literature, we provide evidence that this relationship is time varying. The time variation is attributed to the observed temporal replacement effect between private and public investments. Furthermore, we show that there are two distinct correlation regimes in this relationship and unless we concentrate on them, we cannot fully unravel the real link between uncertainty and investments. Finally, we examine whether the use of the two correlation regimes provides better forecasts for investments compared to the use of the uncertainty indices alone. The forecasting exercise reveals that the use of correlation regimes provides statistically superior out-of-sample forecasts.     

我国国际资本流动：直接投资与非直接投资影响因素的比较研究

本文基于向量误差修正模型对1982-2010年期间我国直接投资类、间接投资类（含其他投资）、错误与遗漏及投资收益类三种类型国际资本流动的影响因素进行了实证研究。实证检验结果表明：在长期,我国三类国际资本流动与人民币对美元的实际汇率升贴水年率之间为负向变动关系,与中美利差、中美通胀之差、我国实际经济增长及人民币对美元的实际汇率预期之间为正向变动关系;在短期,三类国际资本流动与上述影响因素之间关系并非一致;实际经济增长是我国直接投资类国际资本流动的主要原因,人民币对美元的实际汇率预期是我国非直接投资国际资本流动的主要原因。     

Has Greater Stock Market Participation Increased Wealth Inequality in the Us?

Is wider access to stockholding opportunities related to reduced wealth inequality, given that it creates challenges for small and less sophisticated investors? Counterfactual analysis is used to study the influence of changes in the U.S. stockholder pool and economic environment, on the distribution of stock and net household wealth during a period of dramatic increase in stock market participation. We uncover substantial shifts in stockholder pool composition, favoring smaller holdings during the 1990s upswing but larger holdings around the burst of the Internet bubble. We find no evidence that widening access to stocks was associated with reduced net wealth inequality.     

外部选择权增加一定会刺激专用性投资吗*——基于云南烟草合同的微观证据

学术界对于外部选择权和专用性投资的关系一直存有争论。产权理论（主要是GHM模型）认为当事人外部选择权增加会提高谈判力,从而提高参与人的专用性投资激励,这是产权成为最重要激励工具的基本逻辑。然而,另一些学者则认为,当参与人外部选择权是紧的时候,外部选择权增加反而会降低参与人的投资激励。这意味着,产权不一定能够提高激励。本文在梳理已有文献争论的基础上,构建理论模型重新定义了外部选择权的范围,并在非合作博弈的框架下,得到与后一部分学者一致的结论：外部选择权的增加反而会降低参与人专用性投资的激励。同时,笔者使用云南烟草合同的微观数据,实证分析了外部选择权和专用性投资之间的关系,发现两者呈负相关关系,这进一步支持了该结论。本文的发现与主流的产权理论有所不同,具有一定的理论贡献和现实意义。     

政治竞争与相互直接投资

This paper investigates a basic question about the international political economy—why is international trade not free? To answer this question, we modified Grossman and Helpman (1994) by considering that interest lobbies make political contributions to both the incumbent government and the political challenger in order to influence the incumbent government’s choice of trade policy. By examining the contribution schedules under a framework of bilateral direct investments, we find that the modified Ramsey rule still holds under our setting.     

Herding,Faith-Based Investments and the Global Financial Crisis: Empirical Evidence From Static and Dynamic Models

The purpose for this article is to explore the existence of herding behavior in the context of Shariah-based ethical investments. To this end the authors have employed the highly liquid constituent stocks of the U.S. Dow Jones Islamic Index for the period January 2007 to December 2014. The methodology encompasses both static and dynamic models that capture potential time-varying patterns or asymmetric behavior of herding. Summarizing the results, the authors document significant antiherding behavior that is robust across different formulations and testing procedures. Most interestingly, they observe an asymmetric behavior of the antiherding phenomenon. Results from the dynamic analysis reveal that antiherding tends to be more intense during turbulent periods. The findings may entail useful implications for investors who wish to diversify their portfolios using faith-based investments.     

Cyclical comovements in energy-related venture capital investments

This article examines the cyclical comovements of venture capital investments in the energy sector and key macroeconomic variables. In particular, we decompose the cyclical component of two venture capital investment series (clean technology and industrial/energy) and several macroeconomic factors including oil prices. A number of important cyclical relationships are documented such as increases in crude oil prices tend to signal future venture capital investment in both energy-related sectors and these investments tend to move concurrently with movements in the overall economy     

A wait‐and‐see approach to investments: Do elections play a role?

Unlike previous studies on electoral investment cycle—the tendency for firms to reduce investment expenditure during an election year relative to nonelection years—that have primarily focused on developed countries, this study documents cycles in private investments in relation to the timing of national elections across a broader set of African countries. The estimation results indicate that during election years, private investment decreases by an average of 16% relative to nonelection years. The results also reveal that private investment falls in the year leading up to an election and increases in the immediate year after an election, consistent with the view that electoral uncertainty deters investments. These findings suggest that electoral investment cycles apply strongly to African countries.     

晋升博弈中政府官员的激励与合作--兼论我国地方保护主义和重复建设问题长期存在的原因

过去大量的研究强调行政性分权和财政包干下地方官员的财政激励对区域经济发展及其互动的影响。本文建立了一个地方官员政治晋升博弈的简单模型 ,旨在强调地方官员的晋升激励对地区间经济竞争和合作的影响。由于政治晋升博弈的基本特征是一个官员的晋升直接降低另一个官员的晋升机会 ,即一人所得为另一人所失 ,这使得同时处于政治和经济双重竞争的地方官员之间的合作空间非常狭小 ,而竞争空间非常巨大。该模型理解我国区域经济竞争与合作问题提供了一个系统的视角和框架 ,它尤其有助于解释我国长期存在的地方保护主义、“大而全”的地区发展战略和地区间形形色色的产业“大战”和恶性竞争。