New Evidence on Youth Smoking Behavior based on Experimental Price Increases

The high youth smoking prevalence remains an important public policy challenge into the 21st century. This study applies a unique approach to analyzing the impact of cigarette prices on youth smoking cessation by evaluating reactions among high school students to several alternative hypothetical price increases. It concludes that many young smokers believe that they would quit smoking or decrease their smoking intensity in response to a cigarette price increase. The estimated price elasticity of cessation is between 0.930 and 0.895. The results indicate that youth expect to change their smoking behavior even when the price change is relatively small. However, the behavioral change is most dramatic among those exposed to the largest price increases, suggesting a sustained impact of higher price on cigarette consumption. (JEL I18 )     

THE IMPACT OF ANTISMOKING POLICIES IN KOREA ON QUIT SUCCESS AND SMOKING INTENTIONS

In 2001 and 2002, the Korean government dramatically increased cigarette taxes, anti‐smoking advertisements, and smoking prohibitions as part of an anti‐smoking campaign. This paper examines the impacts of these policy changes by modeling quit success and smoking intentions pre‐ and post‐policy and attributing model differences to anti‐smoking policies. Model results provide evidence that national anti‐smoking policies increased both quitting success and intention to quit. However, the impacts of these policies are uneven throughout Korean society. Females and those who exercise for health maintenance experienced higher quit success. Heavy smokers and high frequency alcohol drinkers stated they are less likely to quit smoking post‐policy. One impact of national anti‐smoking policies is reduced provincial differences among Koreans in both quit success and intention to quit. Future anti‐smoking policies should address the different needs of these groups. (JEL D12, I19)     

Smoking Behavior of Older Adults: A Panel Data Analysis Using HRS

Using longitudinal data from Health and Retirement Surveys over 1992–2010, this paper analyzes decisions by older American to continue smoking and the number of cigarettes to consume using two-part hurdle models with correlated effects. We build on the existing literature by incorporating a myriad of factors including cigarette prices, health shocks and smoke-free laws in one econometric framework. Our estimates indicate that higher cigarette prices play an important role in both reducing participation and the intensity of consumption even for this adult population. In addition, health shocks, as measured by newly diagnosed diseases, raise the probability of quitting, highlighting the ‘curative’ aspects of cessation. However, we find very little effect of health on smoking intensity if an older adult does not quit after a health shock. Per capita cigarette consumption in the US declined by over 64% during the period. We show that increased cigarette prices and health shocks together contribute almost equally to explain nearly 86% of the decline, with little that can be attributed to smoking bans and anti-smoking sentiment.

     

Smoke screen: Estimating the tax pass‐through to cigarette prices in Pakistan

This article estimates and compares the speed and magnitude of the tax pass‐through across major cigarette brands at different price points (budget, mainstream, and premium) in Pakistan by using a novel dataset of monthly observations on cigarette prices in 50 cities during the period 2004 to 2015. The empirical analysis indicates that the pass‐through of cigarette taxes to the final consumer price is fast but incomplete in Pakistan. The pass‐through coefficient is estimated to be in the range of 70 to over 90 percent across four major cigarette brands, and most of the pass‐through occurs contemporaneously within a period of 2 months. The results imply that a 1‐Pakistan rupee (PR ) increase in taxation leads to an increase of PR s 0.8, on average, in cigarette prices. In other words, cigarette taxes are undershifted to consumers in Pakistan. With respect to the tax pass‐through at different price tiers (budget, mainstream, and premium), I find significant variation in the pass‐through coefficient, which is close to one for the premium cigarette brand and significantly lower for the budget and mainstream cigarette brands.     

Unemployment,insurance and smoking

Using recent state-level data from the United States, this article examines new influences on cigarette demand. In particular, we uniquely focus on the effects of unemployment and health insurance coverage on smoking. Results show that higher cigarette prices, a lack of health insurance and restrictions on smoking at home, all lead to reduced smoking. On the other hand, literacy, income, unemployment, workplace smoking restrictions, smokeless tobacco taxes and tobacco-producing states do not seem to have an appreciable impact. The magnitude of the price elasticity of demand is greater than that found in the pre-MSA era. Policy implications are discussed.     

The role of pregnancy health problems on maternal smoking behaviours

To explore the effects of pregnancy health problems (PHPs) on smoking behaviours during and after pregnancy (‘smoking-inducing’ effect), we estimate a two-period model that jointly determines prenatal and postnatal smoking decisions, taking into consideration the presence of PHPs. While PHPs are likely to reduce prenatal (except for heavy smokers) and postnatal smoking propensity, we still observe considerable postnatal relapse in the sample, which can be attributed to smoking addiction, as well as information asymmetries and maternal stress associated with PHPs. Thus, we advocate for smoking cessation policies and programmes throughout and beyond pregnancy to avoid potential intertemporal substitution between prenatal and postnatal cigarette consumption.     

DOES ADVERTISING MATTER? ESTIMATING THE IMPACT OF CIGARETTE ADVERTISING ON SMOKING AMONG YOUTH IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

The goal of this paper is to evaluate the impact of cigarette advertising on smoking among youth in developing countries. Using micro‐level data from 19 developing countries, we examine the structural relationship between smoking behavior and advertising exposure and the reduced‐form relationship between smoking and advertising bans. Instrumental variables are used to address the endogeneity of advertising exposure. Country‐specific unobserved heterogeneity is further reduced by controlling for measures of antismoking sentiment and cigarette prices. After accounting for the endogeneity of advertising, we find that the positive correlation between smoking and advertising exposure in our sample can be largely explained by the disproportionately higher propensity of smokers to observe advertising rather than a direct causal effect of advertising on smoking. (JEL I12, I18)     

A (nearly) global look at the dynamics of youth smoking initiation and cessation: the role of cigarette prices

This study investigates the role of cigarette prices on smoking initiation and cessation among youth in a sample of eight primarily non-Western low, middle, and high income countries, with a particular focus on a subsample of 40 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Using split-population duration models on longitudinally-transformed individual data from the Global Youth Tobacco Survey (GYTS), the average impact of cigarette prices in the presence of unobserved country heterogeneity and shifting cultural norms within countries is identified by the variation of cigarette prices within countries over time. Price increases are found to effectively reduce initiation in early youth, and girls are considerably more responsive than boys. The price elasticity of initiation in LMICs is ?0.82 for the combined gender analysis, ?0.46 for boys only and ?1.5 for girls only. There is some indication that youths in developing countries may be slightly less responsive to price changes than in high-income countries. No evidence is found that cigarette prices increase quitting rates in youth, which may be due to the difficulty of defining true quitting among smokers in early life.     

THE IMPACT OF PRICES AND CONTROL POLICIES ON CIGARETTE SMOKING AMONG COLLEGE STUDENTS

Smoking among youths and young adults rose throughout the 1990s. Numerous policies were enacted to try to reverse this trend. However, little is known about the impact these policies have on the smoking behavior of young adults. This article uses a dichotomous indicator of daily smoking participation in the past 30 days, an ordered measure representing the frequency of cigarette consumption, and a quasi-continuous measure of the number of cigarettes smoked per day on average to examine the impact of cigarette prices, clean indoor air laws, and campus-level smoking policies on the smoking behaviors of a 1997 cross section of college students. The results of the analysis indicate that higher cigarette prices are associated with lower smoking participation and lower levels of use among college student smokers. Local- and state-level clean indoor air restrictions have a cumulative impact on the level of smoking by current smokers. Complete smoking bans on college campuses are associated with lower levels of smoking among current smokers but have no significant impact on smoking participation. Bans on cigarette advertising on campus as well as bans on the sale of cigarettes on campus have no significant effect on the smoking behavior of college students.     

Taxes on capital in a specific factor model with international capital mobility

The efficiency and distributional effects of sundry capital taxes are analyzed in a simple two-sector specific factor model where capital is mobile both between the two sectors and between the home country and the rest of the world. Two cases are discussed: the small country case where factor and commodity prices are parametric; and the large country case. The optimal tax on capital export is illustrated when commodity prices are parametric. A simple approach to the case when both factor and commodity prices are variable is demonstrated.     

Addiction,social interactions and gender differences in cigarette consumption

This paper addresses the impact of addiction and social interactions on cigarette demand, controlling for demographic and socioeconomic factors. A Box–Cox double-hurdle model for the simultaneous decisions of how much to smoke and whether to quit smoking is estimated on individual data from the 2000 Italian “Health Status and Use of Health Services” survey. The model incorporates the fixed costs of quitting and allows for the analysis of the effects of addiction and social interactions on smoking participation and cigarette consumption. Estimation results show that the duration of the smoking habit, used as measure of addiction, significantly increases the level of cigarette consumption and lowers the probability of quitting. Social interactions significantly affect individual’s attitude toward smoking. Finally, gender differences are formally tested to verify whether male and female sub-samples can be pooled or should be separately analyzed. The hypothesis of equal consumption parameters is clearly rejected, suggesting the opportunity of distinguishing the consumption patterns of men and women.

Is there the threshold effect of cigarette price on smoking prevalence? A cross-country panel data analysis

This article shows new cross-country evidences by empirically investigating the joint effects of cigarette price levels and joining the World Health Organization Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (WHO FCTC) on smoking prevalence in 74 countries over the period of 2000, 2003, 2005 and 2006. We assessed cigarette price elasticity for three national income levels using different databases on cigarette price from the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), demographic and socioeconomic country characteristics from the World Bank and adjusted smoking prevalence rates published by various yearly WHO reports on the global tobacco epidemic from 2000 to 2010. A panel threshold regression was used to capture the nonlinear effects that cigarette prices on smoking prevalence at the three national income levels endogenously determined by estimation. Our findings supported the evidence that joining the WHO FCTC would have a positive effect on reducing cross-country smoking prevalence, especially among countries with low- and medium-income levels. Moreover, some simulated results show that a price hike of 10% would reduce smoking prevalence in countries with national income levels equal to or less than US$1900 and by 7.2% in countries with national income levels between US$1900 and US$2510 more than those with national income levels that are higher than US$2510.     

Is the value added tax a useful macroeconomic stabilization instrument?

The value added tax (VAT) has been proposed as a macroeconomic stabilization instrument. This paper considers some practical implications of a variable VAT. It then develops a dynamic general equilibrium model to assess its usefulness as a stabilization instrument. A variable rate VAT would no longer be less distortionary than other taxes. It would distort between current and future consumption, i.e. savings and investment decisions, and hence raise the economic costs of taxation. Moreover, a variable VAT would be less effective in dampening business cycles than the conventional stabilization tool, an interest rate. This is because of the additional adverse supply effects. A change in the interest rate affects this period's savings and investment decisions, whereas a variable VAT rate would influence savings and investment decisions over time. A variable VAT rate is therefore unlikely to be a useful stabilization instrument.     

WIC PARTICIPATION AND MATERNAL BEHAVIOR: BREASTFEEDING AND WORK LEAVE

We examine the effects of the Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) Program on breastfeeding outcomes and maternal employment decisions. This research expands the existing literature using an alternative identification strategy and a broader set of outcomes. Using data from the Infant Feeding Practices Study II, we control for selection bias into WIC using the variation in food prices as an instrumental variable. The results of this study are robust to a number of specification and falsification tests. We find WIC decreases exclusive breastfeeding by nearly 50% and increases work leave duration by over 20%. (JEL I18, I38)     

Using time-varying transition probabilities in Markov switching processes to adjust US fiscal policy for asset prices

This paper tests for nonlinear effects of asset prices on the US fiscal policy. By modeling government spending and taxes as time-varying transition probability Markovian processes (TVPMS), we find that taxes significantly adjust in a nonlinear fashion to asset prices. In particular, taxes respond to housing and (to a smaller extent) to stock price changes during normal times. However, at periods characterized by high financial volatility, government taxation only counteracts stock market developments (and not the dynamics of the housing sector). As for government spending, it is neutral vis-a-vis the asset market cycles. We conclude that, correcting the fiscal balance and, notably, the revenue side for time-varying effects of asset prices provides a more accurate assessment of the fiscal stance and its sustainability.     

Modelling the demand for housing over the life cycle

We model individual demand for housing over the life cycle, and show the aggregate implications of this behaviour. Individuals delay purchasing their first home when incomes are low or uncertain. Higher house prices lead households to downsize, rather than to stop being owners. Fixed costs (property transactions taxes) have important impacts on welfare (a wealth effect) and house purchase decisions (substitution effect). In aggregate, positive house price shocks lead to consumption booms among the old but falls in consumption for the young, and reduced housing demand; positive income shocks lead to consumption booms among the young and increased housing demand.     

Cigarette and Tobacco Consumption: Have Anti-Smoking Policies Made a Difference?

The consumption of cigarette and tobacco products in Australia is modelled using the rational addiction theory of Becker and Murphy, augmented by data on advertising, regulatory intervention, and demographic factors. Over the past 35 years, price (including tobacco taxes), real income, and demographic effects explain most of the variation in tobacco consumption. Advertising by tobacco companies has had a relatively small direct effect on consumption. Work-place smoking bans and health warnings on cigarette packs have had a relatively minor impact, while anti-smoking advertising and bans on electronic media advertising have had no detectable direct effect.     

RAMSEY TAXES MEET PRICE RIGIDITY

‘Ramsey taxes’ are commodity taxes that minimize deadweight loss. Evidence has shown dramatic differences in the extent of price rigidity across goods: while the prices of some goods change frequently, the prices of other goods seldom change. This paper examines Ramsey taxes in the presence of heterogeneous price rigidity. We find that, to minimize deadweight loss, lower (higher) tax rates should be imposed on goods with rigid prices if their relative prices are too high (low) relative to the would‐be situation of no price stickiness. Intuitively, Ramsey taxes remedy the relative price distortion caused by the price rigidity of some goods. We calibrate our model to data from Taiwan and the USA, showing a significant cut in welfare cost if Ramsey rather than uniform taxes are applied.     

Economic stress and cigarette smoking: Evidence from the United States

This paper uses pooled data on U.S. states for the post-MSA period to estimate the demand for cigarettes, with the main contribution lying in considering the effects of economic stress/uncertainty. Different measures of economic stress – standard deviations and averages of unemployment and property prices – are considered. Greater economic stress is found to lower cigarette smoking across various specifications. Other findings largely support the literature on cigarette demand — price effects are negative, border price effects are positive and the effect of income is negative.     

Taxation of Housing: Killing Several Birds with One Stone

High and sustained housing-price growth has been observed in many countries over recent decades. In Norway, real housing prices increased by 200 percent between 1990 and 2015, and many households have high debts. In addition, maintaining the welfare state as the population ages likely involves higher taxes in the coming years. Norway taxes housing leniently. Increased taxation of housing is a way of killing several birds with one stone: generating tax revenue, moderating housing prices, and increasing efficiency. In this paper, I use a microsimulation model to determine the effects on revenue and distribution of a hypothetical tax change where housing is taxed as other capital assets. I take into account the effect of taxation on housing demand, using a simple user-cost model. This housing tax would increase personal tax revenue by 11 percent and make the tax system more progressive. Housing prices would fall by 20 percent.