Economic theory and econometric dynamics in modelling wages and prices in the United Kingdom

We show that a “competing claims” model of imperfect competition can explain the movements of wages and prices in the United Kingdom, using quarterly data covering 1976–93. We argue that careful attention both to economic theory and to the interaction between dynamics and identification is crucial in the building of the model and to dynamic econometric models in general. We use a small numerical example with simulated cointegrated data to illustrate the potential pitfalls. First version received: January 1998/final version received: November 1998     

Pass-through in United States beef cattle prices: a test of Ricardian rent theory

Feeder cattle are fattened to become fed live cattle 6 months later, and the feeder cattle stock is fixed in the short-run. Efficiency in competitive markets suggests feeder cattle prices should fully reflect feed prices and information on future fed cattle prices. Employing a long time series (1979–2004) of feeder cattle futures, live cattle futures, and local corn prices, we test whether complete pass-through occurs. For fed cattle futures prices, we find about 93% of complete pass-through to present feeder cattle prices. The corresponding negative effect of a corn price increase is about 87% of complete pass-through. In contrast with imperfectly competitive agricultural land rental markets, the results support the hypothesis of Ricardian rent extraction by the scarce asset owner in feeder cattle markets.     

The inflation and inflation uncertainty relationship for Turkey: a dynamic framework

This article assesses the interaction between inflation and inflation uncertainty in a dynamic framework for Turkey by using monthly data for the time period 1984–2009. The bulk of previous studies investigating the link between inflation and inflation uncertainty employ Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH)-type models, which consider inflation uncertainty as a predetermined function of innovations to inflation specification. The stochastic volatility in mean (SVM) models that we use allow for gathering innovations to inflation uncertainty and assess the effect of inflation volatility shocks on inflation over time. When we assess the interaction between inflation and its volatility, the empirical findings indicate that response of inflation to inflation volatility is positive and statistically significant. However, the response of inflation volatility to inflation is negative but not statistically significant.     

Price determination and dynamic adjustments: An inverse demand system approach to meat products in the United States

In this study the process of retail meat price determination is depicted in the form of an inverse demand system taking into consideration the dynamic adjustments present in monthly consumption data. The general dynamic framework identifies both long run and short run effects in a systematic manner and allows direct estimation of the long run price and scale flexibilities that are consistent with theory. The empirical application based on monthly U.S. meat products data provides reasonable and promising results.The authors are senior econometrician, Department of Risk Management, TRS, American Express Co., Phoenix, and assistant professor, Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, respectively. The work was performed when the first author was an assistant research scientist at the Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Department of Economics, Iowa State University, Ames. Journal Paper No. J-15784 of the Iowa Agriculture and Home Economics Experiment Station, Ames, Iowa. Project No. 3109.     

The effect of inflation uncertainty on inflation: Stochastic volatility in mean model within a dynamic framework

This paper investigates the effect of inflation uncertainty innovations on inflation over time by considering the monthly United States data for the time period 1976–2006. In order to investigate the effect of inflation uncertainty innovation on inflation, a Stochastic Volatility in Mean model (SVM) has been employed. SVM models are generally used to capture the innovation to inflation uncertainty, which cannot be achieved in the framework of popular deterministic ARCH type of models. Empirical evidence provided here suggests that innovations in inflation volatility increases inflation persistently. This evidence is robust across various definitions of inflation and different sub-periods.     

Energy prices, energy conservation, and economic growth: Evidence from the postwar United States

The effects of energy prices and energy conservation on economic growth have been examined empirically for the postwar U.S. economy. A vector autoregressive model includes real GDP, real capital, labor, real energy prices, and the Divisia energy index. A key feature of our finding is that some damaging effects of energy conservation on the macroeconomy are statistically insignificant in the short run, and the insignificant short-run effects are quickly enervated over time. Alternative measures of energy use also suggest that energy conservation has no significant impact on real output growth. The findings are generally consistent with the neoclassical position that real economic growth of the United States is neutral with respect to changes in energy use. One exception is the case that energy prices are omitted from the model.     

Regime‐dependent effects of uncertainty on inflation and output growth: evidence from the United Kingdom and the United States

Employing a bivariate regime switching model, this paper attempts to examine the regime‐dependent effects of inflation uncertainty and output growth uncertainty on inflation and output growth. Using monthly data of the United Kingdom and the United States, we provide evidence that both nominal and real uncertainty exert regime‐dependent impacts on inflation. Furthermore, in case of both the countries, inflation uncertainty has adverse impact on output growth mainly during the period of economic contraction. Also, for these two countries, it can be argued that higher real uncertainty significantly reduces output growth only in their respective low output growth regimes.     

Demand for cigarettes in the United States: effects of prices in bordering states and contiguity with Mexico and Canada

Based on a cross-section of US states for 2004, this article estimates a demand function for cigarettes after including a proxy for prices in the bordering states and simple proxies for contiguity with Mexico and Canada and for being a major tobacco producer. One major point seems to be that the negative elasticity for within-state price is similar in magnitude to the positive elasticity for the (lowest) price in bordering states. Several additional points also seem noteworthy. First, having a border with Mexico lowers sales in the state sizably. Second, the share of Hispanic/Latino population in the state also lowers sales significantly. Third, contiguity with Canada appears to have no significant effect. Fourth, partial impact of the state being a major tobacco producer appears minor even though consumption in these states is considerably higher. Fifth, education shows the expected negative association with cigarette consumption, but its statistical significance is low. Last, income carries a weak negative parameter, perhaps reflecting the lower prevalence of smoking in higher-income households.     

经济学科在美国

本文将介绍经济学科在美国的情况.由于美国代表了目前全世界现代经济学教学和研究的前沿,了解经济学科在美国的情况,对于如何参与国际经济学界的学术活动是很有必要的.我介绍以下四个方面的情况:第一,美国大学中经济学科的设置;第二,美国大学的经济学教育;第三,美国的经济学博士教育模式在欧洲;第四,中国学生申请留学美国攻读经济学学位时应注意的事项.     

Vibert's European union: A United Nations or a United States?

In his book, Europe: A Constitution for the Millennium, Frank Vibert explores every major issue that will arise in the design of a constitution for a European political union. Can the theoretical constructs of constitutional economics be used to aid in the practical design of a European constitution? This is what Vibert attempts to do in his book. This review contains a more detailed discussion and analysis of a few of Vibert's main theses. In particular, it focuses, on several key issues that will be the major determinants of whether the European Union will achieve lasting success.     

Incentive regulation in the United Kingdom and the United States: Some lessons

Summary and Conclusions This paper has reviewed the approach to incentive regulation in the United Kingdom and the United States. The United Kingdom approach has typically relied on pure PCR, incorporating much sharper incentives for efficiency and lower transactions costs, but it makes the company more of a hostage to the regulator. The United States approach, which is grounded or even mired in the legal system, gives up efficiency incentives in an attempt to avoid making the companies the hostages of regulatory reneging.²⁷ The papers in this Issue illustrate the broad scope of incentive regulation, from the purer forms of PCR to a number of variations and mixtures of PCR with other forms of regulation. The interesting theoretic results and the importance of achieving practical solutions in incentive regulation underscore the importance of the problems and approaches raised in this Issue.     

An econometric analysis of choice of mortgage design in the United Kingdom

The research seks to better understand the choice of mortgage design by households in the United Kingdom. Family Expenditures Survey data is used to test the various hypotheses on the determinants of the choice between an endowment and a repayment mortgage. A bivariate probit model with sample selection is estimated to detect any likely selectivity bias arising out of tenure choice. The theoretical modelling reflects the behaviour of liquidity constrained households comparing comparative periodic mortgage costs and households concerned with the oppurtunity cost of equity in a property. Actual choices appear to reflect the impact of nominal interest rates, income and cash flow considerations. There is little direct evidence that the choice of mortgage repayment vehicle is motivated by portfolio design. There is some tentative evidence of supply side pressure on endowment mortgage take up.     

Farm Labor in the United States

The mainstream blames the global savings glut for causing the 2008 global financial crisis and proposes currency realignment to restore balance. However, this view fails to provide solid theoretical and empirical support to the claim that net inflows of foreign savings reduced U.S. long-term real interest rates and inflated asset prices. It also ignores the role of the global financial system in shaping the development strategy and macroeconomic imbalances in emerging Asian economies. Furthermore, forcing currency revaluation in China and other surplus countries may risk reducing global demand instead of shifting demand from the United States to surplus countries. The paper argues that an overhaul of the defunct global financial system lies at the root of global rebalancing; whereas in the short run, the United States should actively pursue demand-enhancing policies to strengthen global economic recovery.     

The case of the United States: Energy as a political good

This paper presents an analysis of energy as a “political” good in the U. S. market economy. Political status is said to be acquired if a good is systematically and persistently allocated by criteria other than efficiency. The mechanics of allocating energy are examined in terms of interaction between market and command institutions. Then the energy-policy process is analyzed to determine why and how energy became a political good. An observed reversal of equity roles in the 1970s is traced to an economic source—the sharp change in world oil prices—rather than to changes in political power.