Demand for parimutuel horse race wagering with special reference to telephone betting

Parimutuel horse race wagering (handle), measured in real terms, has been steadily declining for the past several decades. In an attempt to reverse this trend, a number of racetracks in the United States have instituted telephone betting systems which allow wagering from an ‘off-track’ location. The present study investigates the demand for parimutuel horse race wagering when a telephone betting system is implemented. Two demand equations are estimated for a racetrack, one for on-track (live race) handle and another for total (on-track plus telephone betting) handle. As expected, it is found that the telephone betting system has led to a decline in on-track wagering but surprisingly, it has also led to decline in total wagering, although not to the same extent as in on-track wagering. Thus, off-track wagering generated through the telephone betting system has not been sufficient to offset the loss in on-track handle. In addition to the effect of the telephone betting system, it is found that the takeout rate (price of wagering), the price of admissions, racing quality, racing days, and competition from professional sports and another racetrack in the market area are significant determinants of the demand for wagering. Demand is found to be elastic with respect to the takeout rate, inelastic with respect to the price of admissions and parking, and almost unitary elastic with respect to income.     

Searching for the favourite-longshot bias down under: an examination of the New Zealand pari-mutuel betting market

This paper tests for the presence of the favourite-longshot bias in a new setting. This bias #150 the tendency for bettors to underbet favourites and overbet longshots #150 has been found in most studies of pari-mutuel and bookmaking betting markets in the USA, the UK and Australia. However, there is growing evidence that in at least some pari-mutuel betting markets there is no favourite-longshot bias. This paper examines the previously unexplored New Zealand pari-mutuel betting market on horse races for evidence of this bias. Utilizing a large sample of recent New Zealand thoroughbred horse races, it is found that while early, off-track bettors price this bias into odds, late (on-and off-track) bettors eliminate much of the bias by the close of betting. That is, the results reinforce the view that not all pari-mutuel betting markets are characterized by a favourite-longshot bias at the close of betting. Evidence is also found that late bettors in this market are smart bettors.     

The effects of price on household demand for food and calories in poor countries: are our databases giving reliable estimates?

Food price policy relies heavily on estimated price elasticities of food demand to help balance the nutritional and economic objectives in poor countries. Economists use either unit values (ratios of household expenditure to quantity purchased) or community prices (enumerated from vendors in local markets) as proxies for market prices when estimating price elasticities with household survey data. Biases are believed to result from using unit values, due to measurement error and quality effects, but evidence on this issue is lacking and even less is known about community prices. This article provides an empirical evidence from Vietnam, which suggests that economists should exercise caution when estimating price elasticities from household surveys. A 14-food demand system is estimated alternatively with unit values or community prices, and the elasticity of calories with respect to rice prices is calculated. This elasticity is more than twice as large (?0.54 versus ?0.22) when community prices are used rather than unit values. Hence, conclusions about the nutritional effects of rice price increases appear sensitive to data choices made by economists. More generally, this discrepancy suggests that the household survey databases commonly used by economists may not provide reliable estimates.     

The empirical effects of competition on third‐degree price discrimination in the presence of arbitrage

Since Borenstein ( 1985 ) and Holmes ( 1989 ), a theoretical and empirical literature has emerged that examines the effects of competition on third‐degree price discrimination. Since transaction costs involved in conducting arbitrage are typically unobserved, empirical investigations in this area have largely been restricted to markets such as for air travel where arbitrage is difficult, if not impossible. Using an entirely novel dataset, this paper documents the effect of competition on price discrimination in the presence of arbitrage in the Canadian online sports betting market where prices for Canadian teams are higher than in the world market. I observe how the prices of Canadian teams change in real time in response to the presence of arbitrageurs that establish Canadian sportsbooks’ observable marginal opportunity costs. I exploit the existence of government betting outlets not subject to arbitrage to obtain reduced form counterfactual estimates of the extent to which competition affects price discrimination in the presence of arbitrage. In this new empirical environment, I find results consistent with the airline literature: competition reduces overall price dispersion and markups, but dispersion and markups shrink more for those in the “strong” market than the “weak” market.     

Price Adjustments by a Gasoline Retail Chain

We use daily data to examine price responses in the Swedish gasoline market to changes in the Rotterdam spot price, exchange rates and taxes. The distribution of price adjustments by a leading retail chain, for the period January 1980 to December 1996, is symmetric with no small adjustments. An error correction model shows that, in the short run, prices gradually move towards the long-run equilibrium in response to cost shocks. There is some evidence that, also in the short run, prices are stickier downwards than upwards. Prices respond more rapidly to exchange rate movements than to the spot market price. Our analysis emphasizes that to fully understand price adjustments it is necessary to examine data sets where the sample frequency at least matches that of price adjustments.
JEL classification: C 22; E 31; F 14; L 71     

An explanation of each-way wagers in three models of risky choice

Punters may engage in betting on both a selection in an event to finish first or in one of the number of places, e.g. second, third or fourth. When the amounts staked with bookmakers at fixed odds on the win and place are equal, it is called an each-way bet. Each-way bets are apparently popular with punters but inconsistent with prominent models of wagering which assume gamblers are everywhere risk-seeking. In this note, we derive the conditions for win and place bets to be optimal in these three models of risky choice. The mathematical conditions for the each-way wager to be optimal, as opposed to a win and place wager with different stakes, are complicated and appear likely to occur rarely in practice. However, bettors obviously see the attraction in giving themselves two ways to bet on the one horse or two ways to win and betting each way. We suggest part of the ‘each-way’ betting attraction is that they are quick and easy to compute – a heuristic – to solve an otherwise complex betting strategy.     

Security design,market risk and round quotes in the treasury bond market

Prior literature finds that the tendency of price-endings to cluster on rounder fractions increases with price volatility. We estimate the separate influences and relative importance of the determinants of price volatility, security design and market risks. Our data is from a market setting that is ideal for isolating and studying the relations of interest. Results for both quote and trade prices indicate that the tendency to use round price-endings increases with both a security’s inherent risk, attributable to security design, and variation over time in market risks. Security design influences clustering more than market risks, but market risks are influential in determining clustering once security design is fixed. The estimated effects are strongest in the on-the-run market segment where liquidity facilitates the aggregation of information into price.     

Exotic betting opportunities,pricing policies and the demand for parimutuel horse race wagering

Parimutuel horse race wagering has been declining steadily for the past several decades. This has resulted in lower revenues to state governments, recetracks adn horseman. To retard or reverse this trend, attempts have been made to implement a number of pricing and marketing strategies. Among these has been the introduction of a variety of exotic wagering opportunities. Over the years the number and type of exotic wagers offered has been increased. Furthermore, the prices of both straight and exotic wagers have been increased and, in addition, the price of exotic wagers has generally been set at a higher rate than that for straight wagers. The paper examines the effectiveness of these policies.     

Managing Permit Markets to Stabilize Prices

The political economy of environmental policy favors the use of quantity-based instruments over price-based instruments (e.g., tradable permits over green taxes), at least in the United States. With cost uncertainty, however, there are clear efficiency advantages to prices in cases where the marginal damages of emissions are relatively flat, such as with greenhouse gases. The question arises, therefore, of whether one can design flexible quantity policies that mimic the behavior of price policies, namely stable permit prices and abatement costs. We explore a number of “quantity-plus” policies that replicate the behavior of a price policy through rules that adjust the effective permit cap for unexpectedly low or high costs. They do so without necessitating any monetary exchanges between the government and the regulated firms, which can be a significant political barrier to the use of price instruments.     

Price elasticities and tax reform in Mexico

Price responses are usually estimated for the average household. However, different households are unlikely to respond in a similar way to movement in prices. Consequently, relying on averages may be misleading when examining the behaviour of a particular group of households such as the poor. This article uses six household surveys collected in Mexico between 1989 and 2000 to derive price responses for 10 product groups and for five levels of income households. The estimated price elasticities are then fed into a micro simulation model to measure the effect of a marginal tax reform. The results find that that poorer households tend to react substantially more to movement in prices, suggesting the usefulness of estimating elasticities that reflect the behavioural responses of the poor rather than of the entire population. The micro simulation results indicate that reducing the taxes on maize, alcoholic beverages and vegetables would be both more equitable and more efficient in terms of social welfare. Meanwhile, a reduction in the tax on legumes, sugar, and oils and fats, while inefficient, would contribute to reduce inequality.     

Disentangling supply and demand shifts: the impacts on world salmon price

To understand price changes, one must determine the relative impact of supply and demand shifts on price. Conditional on predetermined supply and demand elasticities, we retrieve yearly shifts in regional supply and demand. The relative impact on price from each supply and demand shift is determined through an equilibrium displacement model (EDM). This procedure is applied on a yearly basis for the world salmon market in the period 2002 to 2011. The results indicate a large variation in demand and supply growth both over time and between regions. While average annual price impacts from supply or demand shifts from most regions are not statistically significant, price impacts from supply or demand shifts for specific periods are detected in all but one region. This indicates that the use of smooth trend indicators is likely to be inappropriate for measuring supply and demand shifts and their impacts on price. The procedure presented in this article can be a useful instrument for determining the relative impacts of supply and demand shifts on price in any market with unstable price behaviour.     

Game over? Assessing the impact of the emergence of a profitable wagering strategy in major league baseball wagering markets

Testing the impact of profitable investment strategies is often hampered by the practical difficulties of determining who knew what, and when. This study examines the impact of the publication of a profitable wagering strategy on the Major League Baseball wagering market. While standard measures of market efficiency characterized the Major League Baseball win–loss moneyline market to be efficient, previous works shows that wagering on underdogs early in the season can generate persistent profits. Though the overall efficiency of the baseball wagering market remained after publication, these profitable opportunities dissipated. Bettor behaviour is found to play varying roles across different wagering strategies; up to half of the drop in returns can be attributed to wagering market participant behaviour.     

A Novel Housing Price Misalignment Indicator for Germany

From 2014 until present, housing prices in Germany have been rising faster than consumer prices in all quarters except one, raising concerns about an excessive overheating of the housing market. To assess the vulnerability of the German housing market to a future realignment of prices or even a housing bust, this paper develops a housing price misalignment indicator that is composed of seven indicators, which are commonly associated with the fundamental value of residential property. An empirical application to the most recent data suggests that the German housing market exhibits an overvaluation of approximately 11%, where interest rate risk and a relatively advanced stage of the housing cycle are identified as the main factors fueling these imbalances, while a rather solid debt‐servicing capacity mitigates these imbalances since end‐2009.     

RAMSEY TAXES MEET PRICE RIGIDITY

‘Ramsey taxes’ are commodity taxes that minimize deadweight loss. Evidence has shown dramatic differences in the extent of price rigidity across goods: while the prices of some goods change frequently, the prices of other goods seldom change. This paper examines Ramsey taxes in the presence of heterogeneous price rigidity. We find that, to minimize deadweight loss, lower (higher) tax rates should be imposed on goods with rigid prices if their relative prices are too high (low) relative to the would‐be situation of no price stickiness. Intuitively, Ramsey taxes remedy the relative price distortion caused by the price rigidity of some goods. We calibrate our model to data from Taiwan and the USA, showing a significant cut in welfare cost if Ramsey rather than uniform taxes are applied.     

General equilibrium with price intervention policies: a computational approach

Three alternative formulations of general equilibrium under price intervention policies are presented in a computational framework. In the first, minimum or ceiling prices are supported by a government marketing agency. Revenues are recycled to consumers in the minimum price case, and losses covered by lump sum taxes in the ceiling case. Similarities to general equilibrium with taxes are stressed. In the second, sector specific minimum prices are considered similar to Harris-Todaro equilibria. In the third, government price supports operate through market interventions. Existence is discussed, numerical examples presented, and possible policy applications outlined.     

Income Elasticities at different price vectors

Cross-country data are used to evaluate the income elasticities of the demand for ten broad groups of goods at two different price vectors: the observed prices of separate countries and the geometric means of these prices across all countries. The major effect is on the income elasticity of the demand for food; using observed rather than geometric mean prices results in lower elasticity values for the more affluent countries.     

Product cannibalization and the role of prices

The role of brand prices in contributing to product cannibalization is examined. Price elasticities and reference price theory are used to provide a theoretical foundation and empirical test for the impact of a firm's cheap brand on one of its expensive brands. Results are consistent with the conclusion that the market share of the company's premium brand was cannibalized by a growth in sales of its cheap brand.     

Supply response of farm program in rice-growing states

This study aims to develop an acreage response model for rice-growing states using a policy-inducing variable. The single equation regression model for each rice-producing state is estimated by using the ordinary least square multiple regression procedure after log transformation. Data for the period 1959 to 1988 for acreage plantation, market price, target price, loan rate, and acreage reduction rate are used in designing the policy-inducing price. The estimated parameter shows a significant inverse relationship between the rice acreage planted and policy-inducing prices in all of the rice-growing states, with the exception of Louisiana. The estimated short-run elasticities for Arkansas, California, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas are -0.36, -0.68, 0.30, -0.37, and -0.59, respectively. The heterogeneity in the magnitude of the elasticities suggests the need for redesigning the rice programs to generate desirable acreage responses from all of the rice-growing states.     

The empirical study on price discovery of cornstarch futures market in China

This article aims at exploring the performance of the price discovery function of cornstarch futures market in China. In order to test the stationarity of the cash and futures prices of cornstarch, the augmented Dickey–Fuller test is applied. Both prices are integrated of order one. Then, the Johansen cointegration test is conducted to test the cointegrating relationship between those two prices. Finally, the Granger causality test is performed to observe the direction of causality. The evidence shows that there is a long-run relationship between cash and futures prices and the futures price Granger causes cash price. As a whole, price discovery of cornstarch market in China is present although it is a newly emerged market.     

论农户生产经营的价格风险与控制

在中国现阶段,农户作为独立的商品生产者,面临着巨大的价格风险。农产品市场是近似的完全竞争市场,其价格波动的幅度大,下降持续的时间长,有明显的地域性和季节性。建立农产品保护价格制度,培育期货市场,发展订单农业,提高农户的组织化程度,有利于转移和分散农户价格风险,促进农民增收,实现农业可持续发展。