Small business lending and credit risk: Granger causality evidence

Because of their opaque nature, SMEs are overly reliant on bank lending. Therefore, we examine whether banks' credit supply to SMEs are affected by their financial conditions. To this end, we employ a Granger causality analysis to examine whether there is an indication of a significant direction of determination between SME lending and non-performing SME loans. The results reveal no bidirectional relationship between SME lending and NPL for the entire banking sector. For Islamic banks, however, we find two-way linkages between these two parameters: a negative causation is running both from SME lending to NPL growth and from NPL to SME lending. Given Islamic banks' deposit-oriented funding practices and their adherence to profit-and-loss sharing principles, this finding suggests the presence of heightened market discipline within the Islamic banking system.     

The relationship between agricultural commodity prices,crude oil prices and US dollar exchange rates: a panel VAR approach and causality analysis

This study examines the relationship between crude oil prices, US dollar exchange rates and 30 selected international agricultural prices and five international fertilizer prices in a panel framework. The study uses panel VAR methods and Granger causality tests on panel data sets of agricultural commodity prices (as well as specific agricultural commodity sub-groups) and fertilizer prices with monthly observations of the period from June 1983 to June 2013. The empirical results of the present study indicate that crude oil prices as well as US dollar exchange rates affect international agricultural commodity and fertilizer prices. Furthermore, contrary to the findings of several studies in the literature, the present study supports bidirectional panel causality effects between crude oil prices and international agricultural prices as well as between US exchange rates and international agricultural prices.     

Using Romer and Romer's new measure of monetary policy shocks to identify the AD and AS shocks

This article re-examines the series of (exogenous) Federal Funds Rate (FFR) shocks created by Romer and Romer (2004) for the period 1969:01–1996:12. We hypothesize that if Romer and Romer have constructed a reasonable set of monetary policy shocks, then including them in a small Vector Autoregression (VAR) should help to identify other structural shocks that affected the United States economy during their sample period. Using a sample period of 1971:01–1996:12 we are easily able to identify both an Aggregate Demand (AD) shock and an Aggregate Supply (AS) shock without imposing any sign or long-run restrictions. We present historical decompositions that allow us to compare the relative importance of these shocks with that of the exogenous monetary policy shocks in explaining output fluctuations during the 1973–1975, 1980–1984 and 1990–1991 business cycle episodes.     

A censored system of cigarette and alcohol consumption

Many previous studies of US cigarette and alcohol consumption have focused on single equations. However, the addictive nature of consumption suggests that it is more appropriate to model these products as a system. We propose a two-step estimation procedure and apply the procedure to a system of equations for cigarette, beer and wine consumption. Results differ from those derived from an existing two-step procedure. Findings suggest that consumption of cigarettes, beer and wine is responsive to income changes but the elasticities are rather small. Personal physiques, education, age, race, ethnicity, health, gender, employment status, and regions also play significant roles in consumption.     

Price Shocks in General Equilibrium: Alternative Specifications

Smets and Wouters (2003) find that at short- and medium-termhorizons stochastic variations in the goods market mark-up arethe most important source of inflation variability in the euroarea. This article shows that an empirically plausible alternativeinterpretation is that the estimated price mark-up shocks representrelative price (e.g. productivity) shocks in a flexible-pricesector. Such an interpretation is consistent with recent microfindings that prices are very flexible in some sectors suchas the food and energy sector, while they are very sticky inother sectors such as services. (JEL codes: E1, E2, E3)     

External Shocks and Business Cycle Fluctuations in Mongolia: Evidence from a Large Bayesian VAR

This paper examines macroeconomic effects of external shocks and their transmission mechanisms in one of the most commodity-abundant countries-Mongolia using a large Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) based on the approach proposed by Bańbura, Giannone, and Reichlin [(2010). Large Bayesian Vector Auto Regressions. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 25, 71–92]. Nine structural shocks (five external and four domestic shocks) are identified using a recursive ordering. Results show that external shocks are important sources of macroeconomic volatility in Mongolia. Commodity price shocks affect the economy through exchange rate and budget expenditure channels, while China’s growth and FDI shocks are primarily transmitted through the real sector and bank lending channels.     

Rule‐of‐Thumb Consumers,Productivity, and Hours*

In this paper, we study the transmission mechanism of productivity shocks in a model with rule‐of‐thumb consumers. In the literature, this financial friction has been studied only with reference to fiscal shocks. We show that the presence of rule‐of‐thumb consumers is also very helpful when accounting for recent empirical evidence on productivity shocks. Rule‐of‐thumb agents, together with nominal and real rigidities, play an important role in reproducing the negative response of hours and the delayed response of output after a productivity shock.     

中国经济周期波动的制度冲击效应分析

经济制度变革成为中国宏观经济经历的影响最深远的整体性、持久性的外生冲击之一,制度变动的冲击对我国经济周期的变动特征产生了深刻的影响.本文运用经济计量方法对制度冲击改变我国经济周期特征进行了检验,并通过市场化程度、非国有化水平和开放度三个制度冲击变量检验了其与我国经济周期波动的相关性,其结论证明:在我国受政治背景的影响而出台的重大的经济制度改革对经济发展影响巨大而深远,制度变动冲击对经济周期变动的方向及程度起到了较大的决定作用.     

Monetary policy and real wage cyclicality

This article points to the potential role of monetary policy in affecting the degree of real wage cyclicality. We show that the degree and direction of real wage cyclicality is determined by the interaction of (i) the returns to scale in production, (ii) the nature of aggregate shocks and (iii) monetary policy. Given that production technology is fairly constant in the short run, we suggest that variations in the real wage – output covariance depend largely on the combination of the latter two. Identifying well-documented monetary policy phases in six major Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries and accounting for both aggregate demand and supply shocks, we provide empirical evidence to support our main theoretical claim.     

Oil prices and economic downturns: the case of Spain

We address the macroeconomic effects of an oil price shock in Spain. We apply a vector autoregression model (VAR) analysis to quarterly data for the Spanish economy since 1986, to elucidate the effects of variations in the oil price on the economy, considering the three main causes of disruptions in the oil markets: oil supply shocks, oil demand shocks and oil-specific (precautionary) demand shocks. We conclude that the effects in Spain strongly depend on the type of shock: the consumer price index (CPI) has mainly been influenced by oil demand shocks; output has only reacted to oil supply shocks; and monetary policy has mainly reacted after precautionary shocks. Second-round effects caused by the behaviour of nominal wages have not been found. Additionally, we discuss two facts: the ability of firms to increase markups in a context of rising demand and the procyclical role of monetary policy when faced with oil demand shocks.     

The complete removal of individual uncertainty: multiple optimal choices and random exchange economies

Summary. The aim of this paper is to develop some measure-theoretic methods for the study of large economic systems with individual-specific randomness and multiple optimal actions. In particular, for a suitably formulated continuum of correspondences, an exact version of the law of large numbers in distribution is characterized in terms of almost independence, which leads to several other versions of the law of large numbers in terms of integration of correspondences. Widespread correlation due to multiple optimal actions is also shown to be removable via a redistribution. These results allow the complete removal of individual risks or uncertainty in economic models where non-unique best choices are inevitable. Applications are illustrated through establishing stochastic consistency in general equilibrium models with idiosyncratic shocks in endowments and preferences. In particular, the existence of “global” solutions preserving microscopic independence structure is shown in terms of competitive equilibria for the cases of divisible and indivisible goods as well as in terms of core for a case with indivisible goods where a competitive equilibrium may not exist. An important feature of the idealized equilibrium models considered here is that standard results on measure-theoretic economies are now directly applicable to the case of random economies. Some asymptotic interpretation of the results are also discussed. It is also pointed out that the usual unit interval [0,1] can be used as an index set in our setting, provided that it is endowed together with some sample space a suitable larger measure structure. Received: September 14, 1998; revised version: January 6, 1999     

Firm dynamics in news-driven business cycles: the role of endogenous survival rate

Evidences from the structural vector-error correction model shows that the new business formation and stock prices co-moves with output under news shocks. However, simply incorporating firm dynamics into Jaimovich and Rebelo’s (Jaimovich and Rebelo, 2009) model cannot explain these empirical findings. We show that this problem can be resolved by introducing endogenous survival rates for the new entrants.     

Argentina's Feeble Recovery: Insights from a Real Business Cycle Approach

Abstract

Argentina’s GDP increased 30% between 2002 and 2005, prompting optimistic assessments that the country had finally left behind its secular stagnation. However, this strong performance followed a sharp decline in economic activity and therefore could be the manifestation of a bounce‐back effect with no lasting impact on Argentina’s mediocre long‐term growth rates. The paper examines this conjecture with the quantitative discipline imposed by a Real Business Cycle methodology and concludes that the 2002–05 expansion was not only a rebound, but also considerably weaker than the model predicts, a finding not consistent with upbeat views about the country’s long‐term prospects.     

Commodity prices and the AUD-Yen exchange rate: a real-time forecasting analysis

I study the impact of the GSCI commodity price indices on the Australian dollar-Japanese yen nominal exchange rate using a modified version of the classic monetary approach of exchange rate determination. I use a broad range of model-selection and model-averaging criteria. I find some evidence for a short-lived relationship as far as inclusions in the optimal forecasting models are concerned. In general, though, results of the Diebold-Mariano and Clark-West test show that results are not stable over the whole sample.     

Monetary policy shocks and productivity measures in the G-7 countries

An implication of two-country international real business cycle models is that total factor productivity should be an exogenous stochastic process. Economic theories which feature labor hoarding, variable capacity utilization, and increasing returns predict that measured productivity shifts are not exogenous; instead, expansionary aggregate demand shocks should lead to an increase in measured productivity. For each of the G-7 countries, this paper measures quarterly aggregate total factor productivity for the domestic country and its rest-of-world (G-6) counterpart. In each case the domestic productivity measures are not strictly exogenous: expansionary U.S. monetary policy shocks, as well as other G-6 monetary policy shocks, lead to productivity expansions. The evidence indicates that international business cycle models are misspecified unless they feature endogenous productivity mechanisms.Received: June 2001, Accepted: December 2001, JEL Classification: E5, F4Correspondence to: Charles L. EvansFor their helpful comments, we thank Mario Crucini, Patricia Reynolds, and Steve Strongin. The views expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago or the Federal Reserve System.     

我国农业家庭经营的波动规律与演变趋势

改革开放以来,家庭经营一直受到来自城市化与农业经营环境两个方面因素的外生冲击.按照真实经济周期理论,农户对两种外生冲击预期收益率的变化造成了家庭经营投资费用的波动.首先将改革以来家庭经营波动划分为6个周期,然后运用真实经济周期理论对家庭经营的波动周期、波动幅度与演变趋势进行比较分析.研究结论表明,在新农村建设时期,随着城市化步伐逐步加快,以及政府增加对"三农"的投资、发展现代农业等外生冲击力度加大,传统的小农家庭经营必然向家庭农场制转型.而在家庭经营转型过程中,政府不应干预农户的自主选择,而应通过加大两种冲击的影响力度,引导家庭农场制应运而生.     

Casinos and political corruption in the United States: a Granger causality analysis

The commercial casino industry experienced an unprecedented expansion in the United States during the 1990s. As the industry has grown, so has the anecdotal evidence that links the casino industry with political corruption. However, there have been no empirical analyses of the issue. We use state-level panel data from 1985–2000 to posit a Granger causality analysis of the relationship between corruption convictions of state public officials and the predicted adoptions of casinos at the state level. We find evidence that predicted casino adoptions Granger cause corruption convictions. This finding is suggestive of a scenario of regulatory capture and may help explain why state-level gaming regulatory agencies have a history of softening gaming regulations after the initial introduction of casinos. Our study provides the first empirical evidence linking casinos to political corruption.     

The links between international parity conditions and Granger causality: a study of exchange rates and prices

This article provides a simple equilibrium model of a futures market. Since the futures market is a zero sum game, some firms will, in equilibrium, end up being ‘speculators’ who bet against ‘hedgers’. We show it is firms that have high initial capital and/or poor production opportunities that are the most likely candidates to bet against the hedgers. In equilibrium, these groups earn a premium in order to provide this insurance so that speculating increases value. We also provide some results that imply an inverted U shaped relationship between trading volume and the level of futures prices. Empirical evidence from the S&P futures contract provides strong empirical support for this theoretical result.     

NAIRU and productivity shocks: evidence from three gigantic economies

This article investigates NAIRU which stands for Non Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment and its trend in three of the world gigantic economies to mention orderly USA, Japan and China. A Vector Autoregressive Regression model estimated to study the reaction of NAIRU to shocks imposed by labour productivity. Results indicate both productivity shocks and NAIRU fluctuations have counter effects.     

Terms of trade movements and the global economic crisis

Dramatic changes in the relative prices of goods in international trade have accompanied, and indeed preceded, the recent global crisis. The causes and effects of the relative price changes are analysed by applying the analysis of business cycles developed by Joseph Schumpeter. Schumpeter’s analysis emphasises innovation and structural change (particularly creative destruction) which impart uneven development on the economy and can foster financial crises. This puts the current crisis in the context of long-wave development of the capitalist system and leads to predictions about the likely path of price and output changes over the next few decades.