Nonlinearity in dynamic adjustment: Semiparametric estimation of panel labor supply

We estimate a semiparametric dynamic panel data model by the local linear kernel method and we interpret the slope of the nonparametric component function as a varying slope coefficient. Thus, the slope coefficient is a smooth, but otherwise unknown, function of some of the regressors. A Monte Carlo experiment is reported to examine the finite sample performance of the local linear estimator. We apply the estimation method to a labor supply equation for men from the triannual Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). Specification tests based on the estimated labor supply elasticities, partial adjustment coefficients, and residuals demonstrate the improvements from a semiparametric partially linear model. Our empirical results point to a need by economists to revisit the issue of the speed of labor market adjustment to policy induced shifts in labor demand and to take more formal econometric account of heterogeneity in wage effects when studying the distributional consequences of tax reforms for labor supply earnings. First version received: July 2000/Final version received: January 2001     

Housing supply elasticity in local government areas of Sydney

We report supply elasticity estimates of residential property (houses and apartments) for local government areas (LGAs) in metropolitan Sydney. Using annual data for 1991–2012, the average supply elasticity estimate across all LGAs is 0.2 for houses and 0.8 for apartments. The supply of houses is inelastic in all 43 LGAs; in contrast, apartment supply is elastic – greater than unity – in about one-third of LGAs. We develop theoretical and empirical models to explain the cross-section variation in supply elasticity across LGAs. For houses, supply elasticity is negatively related to an LGA’s population density, the time taken by a local council to process a development application and to different measures of the amount of land in an LGA that is unavailable for new housing development. In contrast to houses, variation in supply elasticity for apartments across LGAs is unrelated to any of the available regressors.     

The predictive value of subjective labour supply data: A partial-adjustment model with measurement error

This paper tests the predictive value of subjective labour supply data for adjustments in working hours over time. The idea is that if subjective labour supply data help to predict working hours, the subjective data must contain at least some information on individual labour supply preferences. In this paper, I formulate a partial-adjustment model that allows for measurement error in the observed variables. Applying estimation methods that are developed for dynamic panel data models, I find evidence for a predictive power of subjective labour supply data concerning desired working hours in the German Socio-Economic Panel 1988–1995.I wish to thank John Haisken-DeNew, Astrid Kunze, Markus Pannenberg, Winfried Pohlmeier, Frank Windmeijer, Rainer Winkelmann, my former colleagues at IZA and two anonymous referees for their valuable comments. The author gratefully acknowledges DIW for providing the data.First version received: December 2001/Final version received: December 2003     

农产品供应链利益分配研究综述

首先,分析了国内外对于农产品供应链研究的现状。国外学者侧重研究农产品供应链模式构建、农产品供应链系统整合、农产品供应链协调优化,国内研究重点放在其形成机理、演化进程、结构模式等相关理论方面。其次,从收益共享契约、合作和非合作博弈论、量化影响因素等角度阐述了国内外学者在供应链利益的分配机制上的研究现状。最后,对供应链利益分配目前研究所存在的不足和今后的发展方向进行了分析。     

中国装备制造业的出口依存度及对外市场的需求弹性研究——基于行业面板数据的分析

文章利用装备制造业7个子行业2001-2009年出口交货值和产业销售值数据,对产业的对外市场需求弹性进行了动态实证研究,并在此基础上利用7个子行业的对外市场需求弹性系数作为权重,对装备制造业的对外依存度进行了新的计算。研究结果表明,装备制造业7个子行业在短期内对外市场需求缺乏弹性,而部分行业在长期内对外市场需求富有弹性;根据对外依存度的传统定义,在产业迅速发展时期,由于没有考虑到市场需求弹性因素,对产业的对外依存度存在高估。     

Convergence speed and preference externalities in a one-sector model with elastic labor supply

In a one-sector model with elastic labor supply where consumption and leisure externalities are incorporated, we examine the impact of preference externalities on convergence speed.     

Evaluating innovation and labour market relationships: the case of Italy

In this paper the link between labour market flexibility andinnovation is analysed paying particular attention to the differenttechnological regimes of economic activities and the differentgeographical areas of the Italian economy. A dynamic panel dataspecification is used to assess the endogenous relationshipbetween patents, included as a proxy for innovation, and jobturnover and wages, which represent labour market indicators.Our results show that higher job turnover only has a significantand negative impact on patent activities in regional sectorsof Northern Italy, while blue and white collar wages have beengenerally found to have a positive and significant impact oninnovation.     

Services inflation dynamics and persistence puzzle in Brazil: a time-varying parameter approach

This article analyses services inflation dynamics in Brazil, focusing on the Services Inflation Persistence Puzzle, for monthly data from January 2004 to February 2016. We apply a time-varying parameter (TVP) approach, via a Kalman filter, to estimate hybrid Phillips curves and compare inflation inertia for tradable goods and services inflation. Aggregate Brazilian Extended Consumer Price Index inflation serves as a benchmark. To justify the TVP analysis, parameter instability and structural change tests are implemented, based on OLS and Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) frameworks. The main results are as follows: (i) the TVP approach is relevant due to observed instability in some parameters estimated; (ii) inflation expectation coefficients are higher than lagged inflation in all calculations, but inflation inertia is not negligible at all; (iii) services inflation persistence ranges from 27 to 36%, whereas tradable goods inflation persistence ranges from 36 to 47%, providing evidence of the Services Inflation Persistence Puzzle in Brazil; (iv) from 2009 onwards an increase in one percentage point in real wages raises monthly services inflation rate by 0.02 to 0.03 percentage point; (v) there is evidence that cost-push pressures, due to wage increases in the service sector, are more important to explain services inflation than demand pressures from early 2009 to mid-2014.     

Application of local projections in the monetary policy in Brazil

This article examines the relationship between selected monetary aggregates and inflation and output in Brazil. Impulse responses under VAR and local projections were used to discover the leading or lagging role of the monetary aggregates. In addition, the information provided by the monetary aggregates as predictors of output and inflation was examined. This was assessed by examining their predictive power for subsequent observations on an in-sample basis. Overall, the results indicate that in order to control inflation rates, Brazilian authorities should focus on restricting money supply rather than increasing interest rates.     

Profitability and social impacts of reduced impact logging in the Tapajós National Forest, Brazil — A case study

Brazil contains the world's largest tropical rainforests, most located in the Amazon River Basin. Over the last three decades, rapid growth of this region's deforested area has had negative impacts. To minimize these impacts and maintain biodiversity, the Brazilian Government has established several national forests in the Basin. The ITTO Project, a reduced impact logging (RIL) operation, was recently carried out at one of these forests: the Tapajós National Forest, also known as Flona Tapajós. This paper evaluates the Project's profitability and its effect on local residents. The Project, which ran between 1999 and 2003, was coordinated by the Brazilian Institute of Environment and Renewable Natural Resources (IBAMA), with funding for planning and monitoring provided by the United Kingdom's Department of International Development (DFID) working through and approved by the International Tropical Timber Organization (ITTO). Treviso Agropecuária Ltda, a private logging company, carried out timber extraction on the Project site. Our evaluation found the ITTO Project to have been highly profitable for Treviso, even after their compliance with all Brazilian labor and environmental laws. This finding was based on field interviews and the examination of documents from IBAMA and Treviso. Treviso's mean internal rate of return from the Project was calculated to have been 35.79%, considerably higher than that generated by the region's farms and ranches. The ITTO Project positively impacted Project workers, providing employment and exposing them to rainforest management techniques that maximize timber production while minimizing forest destruction. The paper closes by suggesting that more of the direct and indirect benefits of new reduced impact logging projects on Brazilian national forest land need to be channeled to the local population to increase the probability of them act as capable forest custodians.     

Prospective in Brazil: The power to build the future

This paper looks at prospective in Brazil for the past 30 years. The prospective approach and methods, with their myriad tools, were adopted by Brazilian governmental bodies and companies in a process of progressive maturation of concepts and models. They brought about major changes for the country and for the companies and governmental bodies in which they were adopted. The following examples stem from the application of the prospective process, with the participation of employees and the population. We chose to highlight results applicable to practical life and visible today: 1) the opening up of the Brazilian economy (BNDES, 1984-90); 2) the anticipation of the global warming issue (ELETRONORTE, 1987-1998); 3) the preparation of a monopolistic oil and gas company to work in a competitive environment (PETROBRAS, 1989-2010); 4) the creation of a highly successful strategic state plan (Minas Gerais state, 2002-2010, and 5) the drafting of a strategic municipal plan (Belo Horizonte Municipal Government, 2009).     

Long-run relationships between labor and capital: Indirect evidence on the elasticity of substitution

This paper proposes an indirect method for making empirical inference on the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor. The idea is that estimates of the elasticity may be retrievable from theory derived behavioral equations, by conducting comparative statics with respect to this parameter. This approach is readily applicable to more realistic models than those which are commonly used to derive estimates of the substitution elasticity. It is demonstrated that the conventional approach does not yield sensible estimates on quarterly Finnish manufacturing data. By applying the indirect method, a long-run empirical relationship is found that is consistent with an elasticity of substitution below one.     

Self-insurance in a life-cycle model of labour supply and savings

This paper analyses the incentives to work and to save over the life cycle in the presence of incomplete markets. In a calibrated, partial equilibrium model, flexibility in hours worked changes asset age-profiles: borrowing when young is greater and saving when middle-aged is greater than when labour supply is fixed. Uncertainty causes individuals to work longer hours and to consume less when young. With flexibility over hours, accumulating precautionary assets incurs less of a utility cost and so the level of saving is greater. Further, allowing for flexibility and uncertainty means simulated hours of work and consumption more closely match the age profiles in the data.     

"金砖四国"中的巴西及中国-巴西双边贸易分析

巴西与中国同为金砖四国成员,巴西丰富的自然资源和迅速增长的经济发展态势是其成为发展中大国的重要资本。中国和巴西经贸关系稳步发展,然而双边贸易发展并不平衡,我国一直呈现贸易逆差。从两国的进出口商品结构,包括对贸易结合度指数、商品集中度指数以及产品的显示性比较优势指数进行分析,可以看到中巴两国进出口商品特点不同,在出口商品种类上中巴双方的互补大于竞争。这为我国发挥自身产品优势,有计划地加大对巴贸易出口提供了可能。我国应在对巴贸易中做出更准确的市场判断,制定符合市场需求的进出口策略,充分挖掘两国贸易合作的潜力。     

Assessing tax reforms through the elasticity of reported income: an empirical analysis for Spain

This paper demonstrates the usefulness of the elasticity of reported income to assess tax reforms from the perspectives of tax revenue and well-being. Employing different identification strategies, evidence is provided of the value of the elasticity of gross reported income in Spain and, based on this elasticity, a detailed assessment is made of the impact of the increase in marginal tax rates which the Spanish government approved in 2012. We use microdata from the Taxpayers Panel of the Institute for Fiscal Studies. The mean value of this elasticity for Spain is 0,363 with considerable heterogeneity depending on taxpayers’ characteristics.     

基于动态视角的中国劳动力供给决策实证分析--以杭州出租车司机为例

生命周期劳动供给理论预测工人的劳动供给对短期工资波动有正向的反应,然而不少研究发现国外出租车司机劳动供给弹性是负的。国内出租车司机的情况如何呢？文章用杭州出租车GPS 行程数据分析了司机的内延性和外延性劳动供给。为解决由测量误差和同事效应产生的内生性问题,我们用司机当天遇到的长途载客次数作为其每小时工资的工具变量,进而探讨每小时工资对司机劳动供给时间的影响。我们发现,杭州出租车司机的内延性和外延性劳动供给工资弹性均显著为正,这说明政府增加司机每公里燃油补贴等政策的确能激励司机增加劳动供给。另外,这也说明放松出租车市场的价格管制能使司机更好地根据市场需求优化自己的工作决策。     

Multi-family households in a labour supply model: a calibration method with application to Poland

Models of cooperative and noncooperative behaviour opened the household ‘black box’ and allowed for individual treatment of partners in couples. However, labour supply literature has so far largely ignored a broader issue – the distinction of single versus multi-family (‘complex’) households. We propose a method to account for multi-family household structure by borrowing from recent applications of the collective model to identify the degree of sharing. We assume that each household is characterized by a between-family sharing parameter, which is calibrated on estimated preferences, observed labour market status and other characteristics. We apply the method to Polish labour market data.     

影响城市人口规模的机制及实证

城市人口规模的供给和需求两方面共同决定了城市人口规模的决定机制。在此基础上,构建了数理模型对这一机制进行了实证。由数理模型可得:城市化的技术积聚效应、城市地租、农村人口规模、城市与农村劳动者的收入差距、农村迁移的冲击等影响着城市人口规模。由中国地级及以上城市动态面板数据模型实证可得,城市土地和城市职工平均工资水平等有利于城市人口规模的发展。为了中国城市化的健康发展,提出合理使用城市土地等建议。     

都市圈经济增长的空间相依性研究——基于中国三大都市圈的实证研究

There are a number of theoretical reasons why cities interact with each other. Such spatial interdependence has been largely ignored by the empirical literature with only a couple of recent papers accounting for such issues in their estimation. This paper takes spatial dependence panel data models in specifying and testing to analyze three metropolitan growth behaviors in China. We find that controlling for fixed-effects allows us to disentangle the effect of spatial dependence from that of spatial heterogeneity and that of omitted variables. The estimated relationships of traditional determinants of urbanization are robust to inclusion of terms to capture spatial interdependence, even though such interdependence is estimated to be significant. Additionally, the three metropolitan areas might be said to represent three distinct stages during the urbanization of China.