Nonlinearity in dynamic adjustment: Semiparametric estimation of panel labor supply

We estimate a semiparametric dynamic panel data model by the local linear kernel method and we interpret the slope of the nonparametric component function as a varying slope coefficient. Thus, the slope coefficient is a smooth, but otherwise unknown, function of some of the regressors. A Monte Carlo experiment is reported to examine the finite sample performance of the local linear estimator. We apply the estimation method to a labor supply equation for men from the triannual Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). Specification tests based on the estimated labor supply elasticities, partial adjustment coefficients, and residuals demonstrate the improvements from a semiparametric partially linear model. Our empirical results point to a need by economists to revisit the issue of the speed of labor market adjustment to policy induced shifts in labor demand and to take more formal econometric account of heterogeneity in wage effects when studying the distributional consequences of tax reforms for labor supply earnings. First version received: July 2000/Final version received: January 2001     

Housing supply elasticity in local government areas of Sydney

We report supply elasticity estimates of residential property (houses and apartments) for local government areas (LGAs) in metropolitan Sydney. Using annual data for 1991–2012, the average supply elasticity estimate across all LGAs is 0.2 for houses and 0.8 for apartments. The supply of houses is inelastic in all 43 LGAs; in contrast, apartment supply is elastic – greater than unity – in about one-third of LGAs. We develop theoretical and empirical models to explain the cross-section variation in supply elasticity across LGAs. For houses, supply elasticity is negatively related to an LGA’s population density, the time taken by a local council to process a development application and to different measures of the amount of land in an LGA that is unavailable for new housing development. In contrast to houses, variation in supply elasticity for apartments across LGAs is unrelated to any of the available regressors.     

The predictive value of subjective labour supply data: A partial-adjustment model with measurement error

This paper tests the predictive value of subjective labour supply data for adjustments in working hours over time. The idea is that if subjective labour supply data help to predict working hours, the subjective data must contain at least some information on individual labour supply preferences. In this paper, I formulate a partial-adjustment model that allows for measurement error in the observed variables. Applying estimation methods that are developed for dynamic panel data models, I find evidence for a predictive power of subjective labour supply data concerning desired working hours in the German Socio-Economic Panel 1988–1995.I wish to thank John Haisken-DeNew, Astrid Kunze, Markus Pannenberg, Winfried Pohlmeier, Frank Windmeijer, Rainer Winkelmann, my former colleagues at IZA and two anonymous referees for their valuable comments. The author gratefully acknowledges DIW for providing the data.First version received: December 2001/Final version received: December 2003     

Comparing employment estimates using different minimum wage variables: the case of Brazil

Several minimum wage variables have been suggested in the literature to estimate the effect of the minimum wage on employment. The most common ones are the real minimum wage, the ‘Kaitz index’, the ‘fraction affected’, the ‘fraction at’ and the ‘fraction below’. This diversity of variables makes it difficult to compare the associated estimates across studies. One problem is that these estimates are not always calibrated to represent the employment effect of a 1% minimum wage increase. Another problem is that these estimates measure employment effects for different groups of workers. In this paper we critically compare employment effect estimates using these five minimum wage variables and data from a Brazilian monthly household survey panel from 1982 to 2000. Our principal finding is that the sign of this effect is robust across the different minimum wage variables, but that its magnitude and significance are sensitive to the minimum wage variable used.     

农产品供应链利益分配研究综述

首先,分析了国内外对于农产品供应链研究的现状。国外学者侧重研究农产品供应链模式构建、农产品供应链系统整合、农产品供应链协调优化,国内研究重点放在其形成机理、演化进程、结构模式等相关理论方面。其次,从收益共享契约、合作和非合作博弈论、量化影响因素等角度阐述了国内外学者在供应链利益的分配机制上的研究现状。最后,对供应链利益分配目前研究所存在的不足和今后的发展方向进行了分析。     

中国装备制造业的出口依存度及对外市场的需求弹性研究——基于行业面板数据的分析

文章利用装备制造业7个子行业2001-2009年出口交货值和产业销售值数据,对产业的对外市场需求弹性进行了动态实证研究,并在此基础上利用7个子行业的对外市场需求弹性系数作为权重,对装备制造业的对外依存度进行了新的计算。研究结果表明,装备制造业7个子行业在短期内对外市场需求缺乏弹性,而部分行业在长期内对外市场需求富有弹性;根据对外依存度的传统定义,在产业迅速发展时期,由于没有考虑到市场需求弹性因素,对产业的对外依存度存在高估。     

Productivity versus elasticity: a normalized constant elasticity of substitution production function applied to historical Soviet data

This study tests the extensive growth hypothesis, which would attribute the Soviet economic slowdown to low elasticity of substitution and over-investment rather than deteriorating productivity growth. To circumvent the low availability of data, widely applicable new methods for estimating productivity and elasticity of substitution were developed based on the normalized constant elasticity of substitution (CES) production function. One is an extended version of the Solow residual calculation, and the other is a direct estimation of the time-varying parameter normalized CES production function. The application of the methods to the Soviet data showed a decreasing trend in productivity growth and a low elasticity of substitution of approximately 0.25. The results neither reject nor support the extensive growth hypothesis because of uncertainty in the interpretation of the low elasticity of substitution. The results suggest that it is reasonable to assert that both deteriorating productivity growth and low elasticity of substitution caused the Soviet economic slowdown. Further empirical studies on productivity and elasticity of substitution in the Soviet and other economies are necessary to fully understand relations between productivity growth, elasticity of substitution and economic development.     

Curvature and the elasticity of substitution: Straightening it out

This paper demonstrates that, contrary to deeply rooted beliefs, there is no link between curvature and the elasticity of substitution. We show that there is no direct, nor inverse, relationship between the two concepts, if curvature of the isoquant is defined either in its strict mathematical sense or as the isoquant's second derivative. We finally suggest to view the elasticity of substitution as an efficiency parameter.     

Convergence speed and preference externalities in a one-sector model with elastic labor supply

In a one-sector model with elastic labor supply where consumption and leisure externalities are incorporated, we examine the impact of preference externalities on convergence speed.     

Evaluating innovation and labour market relationships: the case of Italy

In this paper the link between labour market flexibility andinnovation is analysed paying particular attention to the differenttechnological regimes of economic activities and the differentgeographical areas of the Italian economy. A dynamic panel dataspecification is used to assess the endogenous relationshipbetween patents, included as a proxy for innovation, and jobturnover and wages, which represent labour market indicators.Our results show that higher job turnover only has a significantand negative impact on patent activities in regional sectorsof Northern Italy, while blue and white collar wages have beengenerally found to have a positive and significant impact oninnovation.     

Engineering robust instruments for GMM estimation of panel data regression models with errors in variables: a note

Econometricians have long recognized the need to account in some way for measurement errors, specification errors and endogeneity to ensure that the ordinary least squares estimator is consistent. This article introduces a new generalized method of moments estimator that relies on robust instruments to estimate panel data regression models containing errors in variables. We show how this GMM approach can be generalized for the panel data framework using higher moments and cumulants as instruments. The new instruments, engineered for greater robustness, are proposed to tackle the pervasive problem of weak instruments.     

Services inflation dynamics and persistence puzzle in Brazil: a time-varying parameter approach

This article analyses services inflation dynamics in Brazil, focusing on the Services Inflation Persistence Puzzle, for monthly data from January 2004 to February 2016. We apply a time-varying parameter (TVP) approach, via a Kalman filter, to estimate hybrid Phillips curves and compare inflation inertia for tradable goods and services inflation. Aggregate Brazilian Extended Consumer Price Index inflation serves as a benchmark. To justify the TVP analysis, parameter instability and structural change tests are implemented, based on OLS and Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) frameworks. The main results are as follows: (i) the TVP approach is relevant due to observed instability in some parameters estimated; (ii) inflation expectation coefficients are higher than lagged inflation in all calculations, but inflation inertia is not negligible at all; (iii) services inflation persistence ranges from 27 to 36%, whereas tradable goods inflation persistence ranges from 36 to 47%, providing evidence of the Services Inflation Persistence Puzzle in Brazil; (iv) from 2009 onwards an increase in one percentage point in real wages raises monthly services inflation rate by 0.02 to 0.03 percentage point; (v) there is evidence that cost-push pressures, due to wage increases in the service sector, are more important to explain services inflation than demand pressures from early 2009 to mid-2014.     

Application of local projections in the monetary policy in Brazil

This article examines the relationship between selected monetary aggregates and inflation and output in Brazil. Impulse responses under VAR and local projections were used to discover the leading or lagging role of the monetary aggregates. In addition, the information provided by the monetary aggregates as predictors of output and inflation was examined. This was assessed by examining their predictive power for subsequent observations on an in-sample basis. Overall, the results indicate that in order to control inflation rates, Brazilian authorities should focus on restricting money supply rather than increasing interest rates.     

Estimates of price elasticity of demand for urban freeway use with high-frequency control variables: the case of Santiago,Chile

Estimates are presented of toll and fuel price elasticities of demand for urban freeway use in Santiago, Chile. High-frequency toll and vehicle data were collected from four urban freeways for different route segments and times of day. Estimation was performed using log-linear regression models whose explanatory variables were tolls, fuel prices, city traffic levels and sets of dichotomous variables to control for daily, weekly and monthly seasonality. City traffic is a high frequency control of the activity level of the city. The elasticities to changes in tolls and fuel were all low in absolute value. The toll elasticities were below 0.05 for two freeways and 0.16 for the third, while for the fourth, which had more alternative routes, it was 0.47. The fuel price elasticities were also heterogeneous, with values of approximately 0.45 for two freeways and 0.21 for the third whereas for the fourth, which had the fewest alternatives, it was 0.07.     

Inequality of Opportunity in Brazil: A Corrigendum

This note acknowledges and corrects a programming error in our paper “Inequality of Opportunity in Brazil” (Review of Income and Wealth, 53(4), 585–618, 2007). Once the error is corrected, our bounds approach to the identification of individual model parameters in the presence of omitted variable biases is much less useful than indicated in the original paper. In the specific context of the measurement of inequality of opportunity, this implies that the decomposition of overall inequality of opportunity into direct and indirect effects is not reliable. However, the parametric approach introduced in our paper remains useful for obtaining a lower‐bound estimate of overall ex‐ante inequality of opportunity, as proposed by Ferreira and Gignoux (2011).     

Profitability and social impacts of reduced impact logging in the Tapajós National Forest, Brazil — A case study

Brazil contains the world's largest tropical rainforests, most located in the Amazon River Basin. Over the last three decades, rapid growth of this region's deforested area has had negative impacts. To minimize these impacts and maintain biodiversity, the Brazilian Government has established several national forests in the Basin. The ITTO Project, a reduced impact logging (RIL) operation, was recently carried out at one of these forests: the Tapajós National Forest, also known as Flona Tapajós. This paper evaluates the Project's profitability and its effect on local residents. The Project, which ran between 1999 and 2003, was coordinated by the Brazilian Institute of Environment and Renewable Natural Resources (IBAMA), with funding for planning and monitoring provided by the United Kingdom's Department of International Development (DFID) working through and approved by the International Tropical Timber Organization (ITTO). Treviso Agropecuária Ltda, a private logging company, carried out timber extraction on the Project site. Our evaluation found the ITTO Project to have been highly profitable for Treviso, even after their compliance with all Brazilian labor and environmental laws. This finding was based on field interviews and the examination of documents from IBAMA and Treviso. Treviso's mean internal rate of return from the Project was calculated to have been 35.79%, considerably higher than that generated by the region's farms and ranches. The ITTO Project positively impacted Project workers, providing employment and exposing them to rainforest management techniques that maximize timber production while minimizing forest destruction. The paper closes by suggesting that more of the direct and indirect benefits of new reduced impact logging projects on Brazilian national forest land need to be channeled to the local population to increase the probability of them act as capable forest custodians.     

Openness to trade as a determinant of the macroeconomic elasticity of substitution

Several theoretical and empirical studies on economic growth consider the macroeconomic elasticity of substitution between capital and labor as a measure of economic flexibility that depends on technological as well as institutional aspects. One institutional aspect of economic flexibility is openness to trade. I examine in a Heckscher–Ohlin model with two large countries trading intermediate goods how openness affects the elasticity of substitution. If the technology has a constant elasticity of substitution in a closed economy, opening up to trade raises the elasticity of substitution only in the country that accumulates capital at a faster rate.     

Prospective in Brazil: The power to build the future

This paper looks at prospective in Brazil for the past 30 years. The prospective approach and methods, with their myriad tools, were adopted by Brazilian governmental bodies and companies in a process of progressive maturation of concepts and models. They brought about major changes for the country and for the companies and governmental bodies in which they were adopted. The following examples stem from the application of the prospective process, with the participation of employees and the population. We chose to highlight results applicable to practical life and visible today: 1) the opening up of the Brazilian economy (BNDES, 1984-90); 2) the anticipation of the global warming issue (ELETRONORTE, 1987-1998); 3) the preparation of a monopolistic oil and gas company to work in a competitive environment (PETROBRAS, 1989-2010); 4) the creation of a highly successful strategic state plan (Minas Gerais state, 2002-2010, and 5) the drafting of a strategic municipal plan (Belo Horizonte Municipal Government, 2009).