Simultaneity, Rationality and Price Determination in US Live Cattle

The results of recent research on the informational efficiency of the US live cattle futures market are ambiguous. Moreover, simultaneous, rational expectations models of spot and futures markets for non-storables are lacking in the literature. This paper addresses both issues: by developing a simultaneous rational expectations model of the US live cattle market, with functional relationships for short hedgers, long hedgers, net short speculators and consumers, the paper employs a wider information set than in previous research and it thus provides a more powerful test of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH). Tests indicate the possible presence of non-linearities in the long hedging and net short speculation equations.
The results suggest first, that there is support for Working's hypotheses of selective and operational hedging, for short and long hedgers respectively, second that speculators may be noise traders or risk-loving (although the non-linear version of the speculation function partially corrects this anomaly), and third that beef is a normal good while corn is a complementary input. Time-varying volatility is represented as an EGARCH ( p , q ) process. Post-sample, this model does not significantly outperform the futures price in spot price forecasting, implying non-rejection of the EMH.     

Strategic interaction between futures and spot markets

We study an oligopolistic industry where firms are able to sell in a futures market at infinitely many moments prior to the spot market. A kind of Folk-theorem is established: any outcome between perfect competition and Cournot can be sustained in equilibrium. We then find that the Cournot outcome can be sustained by a renegotiation-proof equilibrium. However, this is not true for the competitive outcome. Furthermore, only the monopolistic outcome is renegotiation-proof if firms can buy and sell in the futures market. These results suggest, contrary to existing literature, that the introduction of futures markets may have an anti-competitive effect.     

Simultaneity,Forecasting and Profits in London Copper Futures

Previous research on price determination for non‐ferrous metals at the London Metal Exchange (LME) suffers from three limitations: first it has employed single equation methods only, which cannot explain the simultaneous determination of spot and futures prices; second, by focusing on current and lagged prices, previous research does not analyse the effect on price determination of critical variables such as expectations, consumption and inventories; third, the outcome of prior research regarding market efficiency is ambiguous. This paper, which addresses these issues, develops a simultaneous model of the copper market at the LME, with representation of the activities of hedgers, speculators and consumers. This model produces post‐sample forecasts of the spot price which outperform conventional benchmarks, thus providing evidence against the efficient market hypothesis. Model‐derived forecasts are employed as the foundation of a trading program which produces risk‐adjusted profits (net of commission costs) for holding periods of one week and one month, thus fulfilling the ‘sufficient condition’ for market inefficiency. This study, therefore, provides new insights into price determination on the LME copper market, and resolves the ambiguity of previous research regarding the efficiency of that market. This is the first application of the model forecasting approach to the question of performance of the market for copper.     

Financial frictions and the futures pricing puzzle

In perfect capital markets, the futures price of an asset should be an unbiased forecast of its realized spot price when the contract matures. In reality, futures prices are often higher for some assets and lower for others. However, there is no stability in the relationship between futures prices and the realized spot prices. This instability has been a puzzle in the existing financial literature. The key to this puzzle may lie in the nature of the model and the lack of market imperfections. In this study, we take a theoretical approach in a dynamic multi-period environment. We incorporate competition between disparate economic agents and impose financial frictions (i.e., imperfections) that are in the form of hedging and borrowing limits on them. Our model gives rise to multiple equilibria, each with unique market clearing prices, with the market switching between these equilibria. Our analysis incorporates a comprehensive consideration of the risks faced by the futures markets participants (i.e., speculators and hedgers) and leads to a better understanding of the puzzle.     

A DYNAMIC ENTRY AND PRICE GAME WITH CAPACITY INDIVISIBILITY

Strategic market interaction is here modelled as a two‐stage game in which potential entrants choose capacities and next active firms compete in prices. Due to capital indivisibility, the capacity choice is made from a finite grid and there are economies of scale. In the simplest version of the model with a single production technique, the equilibrium turns out to depend on the ratio between the level of total output at the long‐run competitive equilibrium and the firm's minimum efficient scale: if that ratio is sufficiently large (the market is sufficiently ‘large’), then the competitive price emerges at a subgame‐perfect equilibrium of the capacity and price game; if not, then the firms randomize in prices on the equilibrium path. The role of the market size for the competitive outcome is shown to be even more important if there are several available production techniques.     

Volatility–volume co-movements: evidence from China metal markets

This article investigates the interactional relationship between price volatility and futures trading activity for three heavily traded metal products on the Shanghai Metal Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange. Using models based on vector autoregression and generalized method of moments, we show, in particular, that futures trading activity has a strong impact on both spot and futures price volatility in copper and aluminium markets. Futures trading activity leads spot market volatility in copper and aluminium markets which suggests that futures markets have a destabilizing effect. In order to disentangle the effect of different traders’ types on asset price movements, we decompose futures trading into speculators’ and hedgers’ trading and investigate their contributions to volatility. As a robustness check, we investigate the impact of endogenous structural breaks on the interactional relationship between price volatility and futures trading.     

Influence of market-level and inter-firm differences in costs on product positioning and pricing

The objective of this article is to study the impact of differentiation and firm positioning on firm’s pricing decisions in a horizontally differentiated competitive market. We build a parsimonious game-theoretic model and analyse simultaneous entry of firms. The effect of differentiation is modelled as an additional cost incurred by both firms based on the degree of differentiation between the firms. The cost of positioning is modelled as a market level cost affecting both firms whereby firms incur a cost if they want to position themselves away from the centre of distribution of consumers. Our analysis provides some surprising results, explains some conflicting empirical observations documented in previous research and may also be useful for further empirical research in this area by providing sharper predictions about the impact of various types of costs on market outcomes. For example, we find that if the cost of positioning is sufficiently high, then a firm with lower cost of differentiation charges a higher price in equilibrium, even when no differences in exogenous costs exist. We also find that under some circumstances the cost disadvantaged firm can enjoy higher price-cost margins compared to the cost leader thereby suggesting that higher costs could be a blessing in disguise.     

The impact of liquidity constraints on the cash-futures basis dynamics: Evidence from the Chinese market

This study investigates the impact of liquidity constraints on the dynamics of the cash-futures basis in the Chinese futures market. By analyzing the trading behaviors of hedgers, speculators, and arbitrageurs in a liquidity constraint context, we document two effects: the expectation effect and the liquidity effect. We further propose a set of threshold vector error correction models (VECMs) for the CSI 300 index and CSI 300 index futures to examine these two effects separately and jointly. We find evidence for both effects. We also find that a basis-liquidity-based threshold VECM, which includes both effects, performs well in explaining why the degree of persistence of a large basis depends on the direction of divergence in the cash-futures price relationship, a stylized fact we observe in the Chinese futures market.     

Price competition and market transparency: evidence from a random response technique

Surveys can increase market transparency when information asymmetries are present—but this will only happen when respondents answer questions truthfully. Sometimes, however, it might not be in the respondents’ best interest to provide truthful information on their firm or market. This will be especially true when other firms can exploit any information they provide. Understanding when, and under what conditions, respondents answer questions truthfully is important to researchers studying these markets and to policymakers using firm surveys to identify ways of improving the business environment. Using data from two countries in South Asia, this paper uses a random response technique to identify respondents that do not answer truthfully. We label these respondents as ‘reticent’. We show that respondents become more reticent when their firms face intense price competition. We argue that this is because intense competition gives respondents a greater incentive to misreport information to reduce market transparency.     

Forecasting livestock prices with individual and composite methods

We investigate the incentives of private firms to adopt new technologies. Econometric investigation is performed on a pooled sample of individual US airline firms over the period 1971 to 1986 for which extensive information on available jet aircraft technology and fleet choice have been recorded. Given the incidence of successive commercial aircraft innovations and variation in production attributes across firms, we are able to consider a wider array of ‘time-dependent’ and ‘time-independent’ adoption influences than in previous firm-level studies. To the extent that our study provides useful general insights into adoption decisions by firms, the results have implications for US global competitiveness policy. One key finding is that firms subject to increased product market competition exhibit a higher propensity to adopt technological innovations.     

沪深300指数期货与现货的相互引导关系研究

沪深300指数期货是中国证券市场上目前唯一的一款股指期货产品,通过Granger因果检验、向量误差修正模型、脉冲响应与方差分解等计量方法对其日交易数据的实证研究表明:沪深300指数期货、现货市场价格是协整的,且二者存在双向引导关系;沪深300指数期货市场对长期均衡偏离的调整力度更强,调整速度更快,对信息反应的效率更高,但在短期波动影响中,指数期货、现货市场总方差中来自期货市场的平均贡献为47.52%,来自现货市场的平均贡献为52.48%,指数现货市场对新信息融入的贡献度更高,其冲击对期货、现货市场的影响也更强烈、更持久。     

Market structure in congestible markets

This paper analyses market structure of industries that are subject to both positive and negative network effects. The size of a firm determines the quality of its product: when network effects are positive, a larger firm is of higher quality; when the effects are negative, a larger firm's product is of lower quality. Consumers have heterogeneous preferences towards quality (firm size), and firms compete in prices. Equilibria are characterised: for example, in any asymmetric equilibrium, it must be that congestion is not too severe. One consequence of this feature is that an increase in the number of firms in the industry can raise individual firms’ profits. Two factors can bound the number of firms in a free-entry equilibrium without fixed costs: expectations, and the ‘finiteness’ property (Shaked and Sutton, Review of Economic Studies 49 (1982) 3–13, Econometrica 51(5) (1983) 1469–1483) of price competition.     

The profitability of financial analysts’ recommendations: evidence from an emerging market

This article aims at measuring recommendation value on the Tunisian market and uses a hand-collected database of 6646 recommendations (2005–2009). We apply the methodology of calendar–time portfolio analysis. This consists of simulating a portfolio that would include stocks depending on the recommendations issued by financial analysts. In order to measure abnormal (or ‘excess’) returns, the raw return of the portfolio is then compared to the evolution of the stock index and to the prediction of the Capital Asset-Pricing Model. Some of the portfolios we build earn a positive significant excess risk-adjusted return of 1.19% per month. Beyond the results that are in line with the literature, we provide two original results. First, ‘sell’ signals are informative, whereas ‘buy’ signals are not. We suggest that it is related to large (small) firms having more ‘buy’ (‘sell’) recommendations and to the direction of the market trend over the period. Second, the fact that recommendation levels have more impact than recommendation changes is explained by the specific informational context on that market, which is that recommendations are systematically disclosed each month, whereas on other markets, recommendations are produced only when the analyst has some new information to disclose.     

Equilibrium with capacity-constrained firms: A classroom experiment

The authors develop a two-stage classroom experiment to illustrate convergence to long-run equilibrium in a market where price-taking firms are capacity-constrained. Once equilibrium in the first stage is established, capacity constraints are introduced by imposing discontinuities in the fixed costs of several firms. The experiment demonstrates that this supply shock yields a higher market price and, under assumed parameterization, several higher-cost firms that otherwise are not able to survive in the long-run equilibrium enter the market and earn positive profits.     

Managing the transition to sustainable supply chain management practices: Evidence from Dutch leader firms in Sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract

Governance literature identifies so-called ‘leader firms’ as the directors of global value chains. But in what direction are they leading? Some leader firms actively try to make a transition towards sustainable supply chain practices, but how can this be assessed? Supply chain management literature provides fragmented insights into the antecedents of transition processes. They adopt a largely ‘top-down’, ‘inside-out’ perspective rather than (also) take a ‘bottom-up’ and ‘outside-in’ perspective in which the consequences for the business models of supplying firms at the bottom of the supply chain are rarely taken into account. This contribution develops a more integrated eclectic approach on sustainable supply business models. We conceptualise antecedents of change along consecutive stages of management that combines different supplier ‘upgrading’ approaches with different ways in which leader firms integrate suppliers in their purchasing strategies. We apply this model to the strategies of 10 leading Dutch companies active in Africa, but with different supply chain positions.     

Production and hedging decisions under regret aversion

In this paper, we investigate regret-averse firms' production and hedging behaviors. We first show that the separation theorem is still alive under regret aversion by proving that regret aversion is independent of the level of optimal production. On the other hand, we find that the full-hedging theorem does not always hold under regret aversion as the regret-averse firms take hedged positions different from those of risk-averse firms in some situations. With more regret aversion, regret-averse firms will hold smaller optimal hedging positions in an unbiased futures market. Furthermore, contrary to the conventional expectations, we show that banning firms from forward trading affects their production level in both directions.     

Trade liberalization,wilful credit defaults and bank bribery in a credit-constrained economy

The rising incidence of credit defaults may cause credit crunch. This affects the ability of firms to finance working capital and also fixed capital formation. Naturally, this is a major macroeconomic shock. This paper is an attempt to address the microeconomic foundation of such macroeconomic shock. We provide a theoretical framework to explain the economic rationale behind ‘wilful corporate defaults’ and ‘financial corruption’ in the specific context of trade liberalization. First, we model the behavioural aspects of wilful corporate defaulters and bank officials to determine the bank bribe rate as an outcome of the Nash bargaining process in a two-stage sequential move game. Based on the results of the partial equilibrium framework, we examine aspects of trade liberalization in an otherwise 2 × 2 general equilibrium framework. We also compare the efficacy of punishment strategies to economic incentives to deter credit defaults and banking sector corruption. Methodologically, our analytical model integrates finance capital distinctly from physical capital in Jonesian general equilibrium framework. Interestingly, our findings indicate that there exists a trade-off at equilibrium between curbing credit defaults and bribery. We also find that not all punishment strategies are equally effective at deterring credit defaults if general equilibrium interlinkage effects are carefully dealt with.     

The forecasting approach to efficiency in the wool market

This paper develops and presents estimates of a simultaneous equations model of the Australian wool market, the world's largest producer and exporter of fine wool. The model contains functional relationships for unhedged inventories, consumption of raw wool, and the activities of both hedgers and speculators in wool futures. Expectations are represented by the adaptive hypothesis. This model extends the work of Leuthold and Hartmann (1979) and Leuthold and Garcia (1988) by including expectations in the spot-futures model, and that of Goss and Giles (1986) by including composite equations for hedger-speculators, extending the expectations hypothesis to the consumption equation, and by using the model to test the efficient markets hypothesis. Wald tests and likelihood ratio tests for unit roots in wool cash prices are conducted and in no case can the hypothesis of a single unit root be rejected. Estimation is by three stage least squares, with correction for first order serial correlation. The model provides good intra- and post-sample forecasts of most variables, especially of unhedged inventories and consumption of wool, both important spot market relationships. The model-derived forecast of the spot price is inferior to the forecast implicit in the futures price, although a compositive predictor clearly outperforms the futures price as an anticipation of subsequent cash prices. Nevertheless, it is suggested that the efficient markets hypothesis should not be rejected, because there is evidence that futures market agents are learning to use the information contained in the model.     

Non-storables, Simultaneity and Price Determination: The Australian (Finished) Live Cattle Market

Empirical studies of simultaneous rational expectations (RE) models of spot and futures markets for non-storable commodities, such as finished live cattle, are rare. Indeed, only two countries, the US and Australia, have produced data sets for the study of such markets. This paper develops, and presents estimates of a simultaneous RE model of the live cattle market in Australia, the world's leading beef exporting country. The model contains functional relationships for short hedgers and short speculators, long hedgers and long speculators, and consumers, and is completed with a spot price equation and market clearing identity. Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron tests for unit roots are executed, and Johansen cointegration tests are employed to investigate whether the I(1) variables are cointegrated. Structural equations are estimated by maximum likelihood when ARCH effects are present, by instrumental variables in the absence of serial correlation, and by non-linear least squares when a correction for autocorrelation is required. The estimates of all structural parameters are significant at the five per cent level. Post-sample, the model forecasts spot and futures prices with per cent RMSE's of 4.4 per cent and 2.5 per cent, respectively. In forecasting the spot price, the model outperforms but not significantly, a random walk, an ARIMA model, and a lagged futures price as a predictor of the spot price. The outcome of this last comparison implies that the efficient markets hypothesis cannot be rejected.     

Why firm size matters: investigating the drivers of innovation and economic performance in New Zealand using the Business Operations Survey

The performance of the New Zealand (NZ) economy is something of an enigma. Although ranked one (of 144 countries) for four important ‘growth fundamentals’ NZ is ‘middle of the pack’ when it comes to economic growth, productivity and process innovation. Using four iterations (2005, 2007, 2009 and 2011) of the Business Operations Survey, this research seeks to shed some new light on this conundrum by using a multivariate probit regression (mvprobit) approach applied to pooled samples in excess of 22,000 unit record observations of NZ firms. The results suggest that factors including firm size, high perceived quality, investment/research and development (R&D) capability, major technology change, application of formal IP protection and new export markets are systematically and positively related to innovation; while many external issues, such as those related to geography, market structure, business environment, have little influence. At the firm level, innovations in NZ are highly dependent on the firms’ internal ability to develop new technologies and market demand. The (very small) size of firms does matter in NZ, which lacks a major ‘home market’ or a major trade block on its doorstep, such that ultimately, government may need to be involved to maintain a viable scale for domestic R&D.