抚养负担、居民健康与经济增长——影响我国县市经济发展的人口特征因素

文章在扩展经济趋同理论研究框架的基础上,建立了抚养负担影响经济增长的可识别方程,并利用2000-2007年我国县级层面数据进行了实证检验,研究发现:老年和少儿抚养负担的加重对经济增长均有非常显著的负向影响,并且前者的影响更大;居民健康水平对经济增长有非常显著的正向影响;选择更为合理的衡量居民健康水平的指标对正确识别健康与抚养负担对经济增长的真实影响非常重要。文章指出,随着我国人口老龄化趋势的加快,伴随人口生育水平下降的少儿抚养负担的减轻和居民健康水平的改进可能仍不足以抵消老年抚养负担加重对经济增长的负向影响。     

预期寿命延长促进经济增长了吗——基于全球121个经济体的实证分析

随着社会进步和生活水平的不断提升,人口预期寿命逐渐延长,全球人口老龄化程度亦不断提高,但这并非意味着人口红利的消失。本文基于1996—2017年121个经济体的面板数据,使用动态面板GMM估计方法分析了预期寿命与经济增长之间的关系。实证研究发现：（1）预期寿命延长对经济增长具有促进作用;（2）纳入收入与预期寿命的交互项后,预期寿命显示出对经济增长的制约作用,而收入水平的提高则中和了这种制约作用,带来经济增长水平的提高;（3）不同性别的预期寿命对经济增长的影响具有异质性。基于此,本文从提高居民可支配收入与提高人力资本水平方面提出了相关的政策建议。     

Mortality,Human Capital and Persistent Inequality

Available evidence suggests high intergenerational correlation of economic status and persistent disparities in health status between the rich and the poor. This paper proposes a mechanism linking the two. We introduce health capital into a two-period overlapping generations model. Private health investment improves the probability of surviving from the first period of life to the next and, along with education, enhances an individual’s labor productivity. Poorer parents are of poor health, unable to invest much in reducing mortality risk and improving their human capital. Consequently, they leave less for their progeny. Despite convex preferences and technologies, initial differences in economic and health status may perpetuate across generations when annuities markets are imperfect.Additional support was provided by the National Science Foundation. Additional support was provided by the National Science Foundation.     

税收结构与经济增长的实证分析--兼论我国的最优直接税/间接税结构

直接税包括农业税收对经济增长有显着的负作用,而流转税等间接税对经济增长的影响不显着;我国使经济增长最大化的最优直接税规模是占GDP的35%,最优的直接税/间接税比率是0.45,目前直接税和直接税/间接税比率均已超过其最优数量,应适当削减直接税。     

影响中国税收增长率变动的经济因素分析——基于1978-2006年中国税收收入时间序列数据

近年来,中国税收呈现高增长态势。税收增长率远超经济增长率,税收高速增长以及税收结构不合理在一定程度上抑制了消费增长。然而,影响税收增长率变动的经济因素是多元的,主要受到经济增长水平、价格水平等影响。实证分析表明,经济波动决定税收增长率的变动,经济波动与税收增长率变动存在长期均衡变动关系,价格对税收增长率也有较大影响。     

税收增长对经济增长的负面冲击

1994年税制改革以来,我国各地区税收收入连年高速增长,导致全国税收收入占GDP的比重迅速上升。研究发现这种税收收入的快速增长给经济增长带来严重不利影响。它降低了经济增长率和税后单位资本的产出水平,并且中西部地区税收增长对经济增长的负面冲击高于东部地区。这种情况对于我国保持经济长期稳定增长,有效实施西部大开发战略可能不利,政府应适时调整税收政策。     

技术进步与经济增长的实证分析及其财税政策

本运用柯布-道格拉斯（C-D）生产函数和索洛模型,对中国20多年来经济增长中的技术进步作用进行了定量测量。结果表明,我国技术进步择经济增长的贡献份额与经济发达国家相比,有相当大的差距。因此,要建立有效的科技税收政策,支持科技进步,发挥它在经济增长中的主导作用。     

生态环境、环境税与可持续经济增长

如何实现经济和生态环境的和谐发展,已经成为全球关注的焦点。文章把生态环境纳入生产函数和效用函数,构建一个考虑环境税的内生增长模型,运用最优控制方法求解模型的最优均衡解。并在此基础上,进一步探讨了生态环境与可持续经济增长的关系以及环境税对最优增长路径的影响。发现环境税的开征降低了最优增长路径上的经济增长率,却提高了人们的最优消费水平。而人们环境意识的提高可以帮助减小因环境税给经济增长率带来的冲击。     

公共资本、税收与长期经济增长

基于两部门增长模型,通过参数化和数值模拟估算了我国税收政策的宏观经济效应及公共资本拥挤性、资本利用效率和外部性对税收政策效应的影响。研究表明,降低资本所得税更有利于经济增长和福利水平改善;基于福利最大化视角,应对劳动进行补贴,对资本减税;公共资本拥挤性强化了资本所得税的减税效应,但不利于福利水平改善,对劳动所得税减税效应影响不大;公共部门资本生产效率和公共资本外部性对减税政策效应具有非对称性影响。     

碳税征收对经济增长与产业结构影响的实证分析

征收碳税已成为众多国家推动低碳经济发展的重要经济措施之一。为了检验征收碳税对中国经济增长可能造成的影响,对征收碳税与经济增长的关系进行实证分析,得出以下结论:征收碳税对经济增长的影响存在显著的地域和行业差异,在较低强度的碳税政策下,碳税对中东部地区大部分省份的经济增长有促进作用,但阻碍中西部地区一些省份的经济增长;同时,征收碳税对大多数行业的发展起推动作用,却不利于少数行业的发展。     

Do income tax breaks for the elderly affect economic growth?

Income tax breaks for elderly taxpayers are sizable, widespread, and potentially affect growth through migration and other behaviors. We provide the first investigation into the growth effects of differential tax policy by age, taking a multi-pronged empirical approach to US state-level data since 1977. Some analyses include panel error-correction models combined with variation in state-level policies over time. Alternative analyses use how changes in federal tax law manifest at the state-level. Results suggest that taxes on lower income taxpayers, of any age, decrease growth the most, while taxing the high income elderly—those targeted recently—has little effect.     

HEALTH IMPROVEMENTS AND THE TRANSITION OUT OF MALTHUSIAN STAGNATION

The central component of most economic models that analyse the transition from the Malthusian regime to self-sustaining developed economies is education. Improved health is normally envisaged as simply a by-product of economic growth. Whereas growth does, indeed, tend to improve health status, the reverse is also true, namely that health improvements are a dynamic force capable of driving economic expansion. This paper underlines the importance of health improvements in escaping from Malthusian stagnation. Further, and in contrast to existing literature, which emphasizes the effects of changes in mortality rates, this paper focuses on the relationship between health status and the efficiency of human capital technology. Through this channel, health improvements stimulate investments in child quality in terms of both nourishing and schooling and drive the economy towards the Modern Growth regime.     

Tax Ratios in Macroeconomics: Do Taxes Really Matter?

In various empirical studies so-called tax ratios (tax revenues expressed as a ratio of some aggregate tax base) are employed as approximations for tax burdens. The most difficult problem in calculating tax ratios is the way in which personal income tax revenues are attributed to labour and capital. We argue that the methodology of Mendoza et al. (1994) is seriously flawed in this respect. Using information from national sources, we calculate more accurate tax ratios for eight OECD countries that differ substantially from those of Mendoza et al. (1997). Still, the results of the empirical analysis of Mendoza et al. (1997) do not change significantly if we use our tax ratios instead of those of Mendoza et al.. However, the results change once country specific effects are taken up in the model. Capital taxes are, e.g., shown to reduce economic growth. We find that the results of Daveri and Tabellini (2000) are neither sensitive to the use of the tax ratios nor to the specification of the model: high labour taxes have increased unemployment in Europe.     

湘西州财税收入与经济增长的关系研究

以湘西州为切入点,从湘西州税收收入、财政收入现状及其与湖南省内其他城市以及周边城市的对比,分析了湘西州目前的收入负担现状;论述了湘西州财政收入与经济增长的关系,并通过数据之间的计量分析得出了湘西州财政收入的增长与经济增长呈负相关的结论,提出了相关的政策建议。     

资源税改革的有效性分析——基于新制度经济学的视角

用新制度经济学的分析方法,首先,对资源大省产生问题的原因进行分析。其次,介绍了资源税的改革方向与好坏的判定标准。最后,对资源税的实施效果进行了预测并提出了解决资源地区问题的解。