The relationship between inflation and its variability: International evidence from the 1970s

This paper reexamines the empirical relationship between the average level of inflation and its variability. Based on a sample of 40 diverse economies, our results suggest that no one group of countries was able to avoid the decreased inflation predictability associated with higher levels of inflation during the 1970s. In contrast, previous research showed that Highly Industrialized countries, as a group, were able to control inflation variability during the period 1950–1970. Our results also suggest that the “threshold” level of inflation appears to have risen substantially during the 1970s. Whereas previous research suggested an upper bound of the threshold at about a four percent rate of inflation, the evidence from the 1970s indicates that the threshold may have risen to about a nine percent inflation rate.     

Stock prices and long-run demand for money: evidence from Malaysia

This paper investigates the money demand function for Malaysia in the 1971-1996 period using the multivariate cointegration and error correction model methodology. The results suggest that a stable long-run relationship exist between real M2, the interest rate differential, income and stock prices. Stock prices have a significant negative substitute effect on long-run as well as short-run broad-money demand (M2) and its omission can lead to serious misspecification in the money demand function. The analysis from the vector error correction model (VECM) and the Toda & Yamamoto (1995) causality tests find that money is endogenous and that there is at least a unidirectional relationship between stock prices and real M2. Stock prices Granger cause real M2 indirectly through income between interest rates and stock prices and stock prices and money stock. This paper comes to the conclusion that due to the endogeneity of money, M2 cannot be completely controlled by Malaysia's central bank. Therefore, in formulating future monetary policy, the response of money demand to stock prices should be considered.     

“社会主义新传统”中的艺术与政治——以二十世纪六七十年代的广东美术创作为中心

本文以二十世纪六七十年代广东部分美术家的成长与创作历程为案例,分析了“社会主义新传统”中的美术与政治、文化的复杂关系。社会意识的高度统一是当时的时代特色,在保持社会意识高度统一的同时,广东的部分美术家展现了自己的艺术创造性,在文革期间的中国美术史上留下了独特鲜活的风貌。如果说文革期间的艺术创作以一切为政治服务的方式与社会现实发生密切关联的话,当今中国的艺术创作则有游离于社会现实的倾向,因此,艺术的社会学转向成为今天人们必须面对的课题。     

National borders and international trade: evidence from the European Union

In this paper the impact of national borders on international trade within the European Union is considered. Using a gravity model, I find that, averaged over all EU countries, intranational trade is about ten times as high as international trade with an EU partner country of similar size and distance. This relatively strong home bias suggests that even within the European Union national borders still have a decisive impact on trade patterns. JEL Classification: F02, F14, F15, O52
Ce mémoire examine l'impact des frontières nationales sur le commerce international à l'intérieur de l'Union européenne. On montre que, en moyenne pour tous les pays de l'Union européenne, le commerce intranational est à peu près dix fois plus important que le commerce international avec un pays partenaire de l'Union européenne de même taille et à même distance. Ce degré relativement important de préférence nationale suggère que, même dans le cadre de l'Union européenne, les frontières nationales ont encore un impact déterminant sur les patterns de commerce.     

Purchasing power parity and relative price variability: Evidence from the 1970s

One curious fact to emerge from the return to flexible exchange rates in the 1970s was the failure of empirical tests of simple versions of the purchasing power parity (PPP) doctrine. This paper seeks to establish whether that observed poor performance of PPP can be attributed to uncertainty regarding the rate of inflation due to the large variations in relative prices experienced during the 1970s. The evidence is found to be unsupportive of the notion.     

The hypostasis of money: an economic point of view

The purpose of this article is to show that money is not anentity but hic et nunc a genuine mode of circulation associatedwith a genuine social organisation. Criticising money hypostasismay help to to: (i) elucidate the ambivalence of monetary relationsin our modern society (equivalence and subordination); (ii)criticise the idea that ‘primitive monies’ are nothingbut imperfect forms of our modern money and show that exoticsocieties are worth studying for themselves; and (iii) relativisethe knowledge we have about our societies and to develop comparativeanalysis. A sketchy comparison between wodani society and ourssuggests that an abduction relation exists between money andsociety.     

Social security and demographic trends: Theory and evidence from the international experience

The worldwide problem with pay-as-you-go, defined-benefits social security systems is not just financial. Through a dynamic, overlapping-generations model where forming a family and bearing and educating children are choice variables, we show that social security taxes and benefits generate incentives to reduce both family formation and fertility, and that these effects cannot be fully neutralized by counteracting inter-temporal or intergenerational transfers within families. We implement the model using calibrated simulations as well as panel data from 57 countries over 32 years. We find that PAYG tax measures account for a non-trivial part of the downward trends in family formation and fertility worldwide, especially in OECD countries.     

Taxation and household portfolio composition: US evidence from the 1980s and 1990s

This paper explores the relationship between household marginal income tax rates, the set of financial assets that households own, and the portfolio shares accounted for by each of these assets. It analyzes data from the 1983, 1989, 1992, 1995, and 1998 Surveys of Consumer Finances and develops a new algorithm for imputing federal marginal tax rates to households in these surveys. The empirical findings suggest that marginal tax rates have important effects on asset allocation decisions. The probability that a household owns tax-advantaged assets, such as tax-exempt bonds or assets held in tax-deferred accounts, is positively related to its tax rate on ordinary income. In addition, the portfolio share invested in corporate stock, which is taxed less heavily than interest bearing assets, is increasing in the household’s ordinary income tax rate. Holdings of heavily taxed assets, such as interest-bearing accounts, decline as a share of wealth as a household’s marginal tax rate increases.     

Productivity effects of international outsourcing: evidence from plant-level data

Abstract.  We investigate the impact of international outsourcing on productivity using plant-level data for Irish manufacturing. Specifically, we distinguish the effect of outsourcing of materials from services inputs. Moreover, we examine whether the impact on productivity is different for plants being more embedded in international markets through exporting or being part of a multinational. Our results show robust evidence for positive effects from outsourcing of services inputs for exporters, either domestic or foreign owned. By contrast, we find no statistically significant evidence of an impact of international outsourcing of services on productivity for firms not operating on the export market.     

The transactions demand for money in the presence of currency substitution: evidence from Vietnam

Currency substitution – the use of foreign money to finance transactions between domestic residents – is widespread in low income and transition economies. Traditionally, however, empirical models of the demand for money tend to concentrate on the portfolio motive for holding foreign currency, while maintaining the assumption that the income elasticity of demand for domestic money is invariant to the degree of currency substitution. A simple re-specification of the demand for money is offered which more accurately reflects the process of currency substitution by allowing for a variable income elasticity of demand for domestic money. This specification is estimated for Vietnam in the 1990s. Using a standard cointegration framework evidence is found for currency substitution only in the long-run but well-defined wealth effects operating in the short-run.     

Puerto Rico in the 1970s and 1980s: Crisis of the Development Model

In his institutional economic essay on "Taxation in Chicago and Philadelphia" (published in 1895) John R. Commons addresses property tax assessment. He demonstrates that the revenue is not just a question of the tax rate and the distribution of the tax burden but also one of constitutional requirements and how the taxes are assessed. His essay is reviewed with regard to his later work, subsequent Institutional Economics, and the social provisioning of the market for professional tax advice. The degree of liabilities is defining characteristics of the differences between the United States and Germany.     

Predictor imperfection: international evidence

Pástor and Stambaugh (2009) demonstrate that the relationship between predictors and equity premium is imperfect in US market using a new model named predictive system. This article extends their study by providing international evidence of predictor imperfection using samples from G7 countries. Our results show that predictor imperfection is ubiquitous in all G7 countries and that investors’ prior beliefs about the relationship between predictors and equity premium play a significant role in predictor’s explanatory power.     

Currency demand,new technology,and the adoption of electronic money: Micro evidence from Japan

We estimate currency demand functions conditional on electronic money adoption with household-level survey data from Japan under an Instrumental Quantile Regression framework. Contrary to theoretical predictions, our results suggest that users of electronic money hold more currency than non-users.     

Financial innovation and demand for money: some empirical evidence

Recent criticism of money growth targets has been based on the implications of spreading financial innovation, since the latter has been considered to undermine monetary policy effectiveness both by bringing about an increase in the interest elasticity of money demand and by producing instability of the money demand function. The empirical results presented in this paper – focusing on a single and specific case of financial innovation particularly suited to study the isssue at stake – falsify both hypotheses.     

Domestic rivalry and export performance: theory and evidence from international airline markets

Abstract .  The much studied relationship between domestic rivalry and export performance consists of those supporting a national-champion rationale, and those supporting a rivalry rationale. While the empirical literature generally supports the positive effects of domestic rivalry, the national-champion rationale actually rests on firmer theoretical ground. We address this inconsistency by providing a theoretical framework that illustrates three paths via which domestic rivalry translates into enhanced international exports. Furthermore, empirical tests on the world airline industry elicit the existence of one particular path – an enhanced firm performance effect – that connects domestic rivalry with improved international exports.     

Linkages in international stock markets: evidence from a classification procedure

In this article, we propose a new approach to evaluate the predictable components in stock indices using a boosting-based classification technique, and we use this method to examine causality among the three main stock market indices in the world during periods of large positive and negative price changes. The empirical evidence seems to indicate that the Standard & Poors 500 index contains incremental information that is not present in either the FTSE 100 index (Financial Times Stock Exchange Index) or the Nikkei 225 index, and that could be used to enhance the predictability of the large positive and negative returns in the three main stock market indices in the world. This in turn would suggest a causality relationship running from the Standard & Poors 500 index to both the FTSE 100 and the Nikkei 225 indices.