Lessons from the experience of OECD nations on macroeconomic growth and economic freedom, 2004–2008

This study empirically investigates the impact on per capita real economic growth of each of the ten measures of economic freedom computed annually by the Heritage Foundation. Within the context of the Random Effects Model, panel least squares estimations using a 5-year panel (2004 through 2008) dataset for the OECD nations as a group reveal that the percentage growth rate in the purchasing-power-parity adjusted per capita real GDP for OECD nations was, at the 5?% statistical significance level or better, an increasing function of at least seven of the ten economic freedom measures. The results underscore the critical role that economic freedom plays in a nation??s economic growth and prosperity and the importance of pursuing policies that are consistent with increasing economic freedom.     

The causal dynamics between renewable energy,real GDP,emissions and oil prices: evidence from OECD countries

This study extends the empirical literature on the determinants of renewable energy consumption in the case of 25 OECD countries for the period 1980–2011. Preliminary analysis suggests the presence of cross-sectional dependence within the panel data. As a result, second-generation panel unit root tests of Smith et al. (2004) and Pesaran (2007) are undertaken to find the respective variables that are integrated of order one. Panel cointegration and error correction modelling reveal that a long-run relationship exists between renewable energy consumption per capita, real GDP per capita, carbon dioxide emissions per capita and real oil prices. The long-run elasticity estimates are positive and statistically significant for real GDP per capita, carbon dioxide emissions per capita and real oil prices. The panel error correction model shows that a feedback relationship exists among the variables.     

Panel Unit-Root Tests of OECD Stochastic Convergence

This paper uses three panel unit-root tests and finds that real per capita GDP for OECD countries and a European subsample converge stochastically for the period 1948–87 but not for the entire sample of 1900–87. For the postwar period, the differential in income gaps or speed of adjustment is eliminated at an annual rate of 4–8% for OECD economies, and 6–9% for European economies.     

ECONOMIC FREEDOM AND INCOME LEVELS ACROSS U.S. STATES: A SPATIAL PANEL DATA ANALYSIS

There is a large literature estimating the effect of economic freedom on economic growth or income levels. Most studies examine the relationship between economic freedom and growth or income levels for countries, while a few examine the relationship for U.S. states. Absent in the state‐level literature is consideration of the presence of spatial spillovers affecting the freedom‐income relationship. Neglecting to account for spatial autocorrelation can bias estimation results and therefore inferences drawn. We find evidence of a spatial pattern in real per‐capita gross state product (GSP) that affects nonspatial estimates of the freedom‐income relationship. Taking into account the direct and indirect effects of economic freedom on real per‐capita GSP, we find a 10% increase in economic freedom is associated with a 5% increase in real per‐capita GSP. (JEL E02, O47, R11)     

INTERNATIONAL AND INTERTEMPORAL COMPARISONS OF REAL PRODUCT IN OECD COUNTRIES A GROWTH SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

This paper provides two new data sets for comparisons of real income in OECD countries. The first set provides adjusted real series for GDP and its components from 1960 to 1993 based on OECD 1990 purchasing power parities. The second set uses OECD PPP of different benchmark years, and interpolates these applying national price indices. Comparisons between both alternatives, Penn World Tahle Mark 5 (PWT 5) and its new version (PWT 5.6), in terms of economic growth and convergence, reveal some remarkable differences. Moreover, there are wider differences concerning the relative countries' position in GDP per capita ranking. Estimations of convergence equations based on OECD data yield a better fit than those obtained using PWT data, although there are also some significant differences between PWT 5 and PWT 5.6. Nevertheless, a very positive result is that other parameters of interest in these equations are not affected by the use of these different data sources.     

REAL GROSS DOMESTIC INCOME,RELATIVE PRICES,AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ACROSS THE OECD

This paper uses OECD data to examine changes in labor productivity, real gross domestic product (GDP) and real gross domestic income (GDI), economic aggregates, and relative economic growth over time. Real GDI combines changes in production (real GDP) with a trading gain derived from relative price changes. The paper considers two sources of trading gains: the terms of trade, and the real exchange rate. For OECD countries, the terms of trade is the more important price ratio, making a contribution to real income growth that is, on average, an order of magnitude larger than the real exchange rate. Over long time periods, the most important source of real income growth is changes in production. Over shorter time horizons, however, the trading gain can make noteworthy contributions. Changes in aggregates like real private consumption, or the relative economic performance of nations, are shown to be particularly dependent on the trading gain during the large swings in resource prices that occurred post‐2002.     

Chinese economy in the new era

The “new era”, a term introduced by President Xi Jinping, may also be identified as the Xi era, during which China will be transformed from a moderately well‐off to a strong and wealthy nation. In the new era, the Chinese Government will deepen economic reform, widen economic opening and enhance the quality of economic growth. / Our projections show that by 2020, Chinese real GDP per capita, in 2017 prices, will exceed US$10,000, an economic development milestone. By 2031, Chinese real GDP will surpass US real GDP (US$29.4 trillion vs US$29.3 trillion), making China the largest economy in the world. However, Chinese real GDP per capita will still lag behind the US significantly, amounting to only one‐quarter of that of the United States. By 2050, Chinese real GDP will reach US$82.6 trillion, compared to US$51.4 trillion for the United States. However, in terms of real GDP per capita, China will still lag significantly behind, at US$53,000, slightly less than the current level of US real GDP per capita, compared to US$134,000 for the United States.     

Can innovation shocks determine CO2 emissions (CO2e) in the OECD economies? A new perspective

ABSTRACT

This study has attempted to address prior knowledge gaps in the environmental economics literature by integrating the innovation shocks into the Environment Kuznets Curve (EKC) equation for twenty-six OECD economies using data from 1990 to 2014. Foreign direct investment (FDI), exports (EXP), renewable energy consumption (REC), and GDP per capita were included as control variables. The results from multiple empirical analyses indicated that positive shocks to innovation improve, but the negative shocks disrupt environmental quality. Data analyses also showed that a positive correlation exists between income per capita of OECD economies. From the negative coefficient of income per capita (squared) and the existence of a negative nexus between FDI and CO2e, both the EKC and the Pollution Halo Hypothesis (PHH) were confirmed in sampled economies, respectively. The paper offers empirical support for the favourable impacts of REC on the quality of the environment and calls for the adoption of innovation shocks as a policy instrument to formulate better environmental policies for a sustainable future.     

Global distribution and dynamics of economic freedom: Non-parametric approach

The paper exploits the distributional dynamics and structural changes in the endogenous distribution of economic freedom across countries over time by utilizing the Rosenblatt–Parzen Kernel density estimator compared to the original distribution based on the methodology proposed by the Heritage Foundation. We utilize the distribution of economic freedom as a tool to identify which policies enhanced the overall level of economic freedom. We develop the distribution of endogenous economic freedom by decomposing effects of economic freedom on the level of income per capita in IV–2SLS estimation framework for a panel of 134 countries to identify the effect of institutions of economic freedom on the level of per capita income. Structural estimates indicate that improvements in the monetary, fiscal, and labor freedom exert the strongest direct effect on the level of economic freedom and indirect effect on the level of real income per capita. Our study demonstrates considerable differences between the original and endogenous distributional dynamics of economic freedom over time. In exploiting the non-parametric setting of endogenous economic freedom, we identify a recent emergence of twin-peak distribution across countries where developing nations have improved the level of economic freedom considerably compared to the initial year.     

Does More Consumption Promote Real GDP Growth?

This paper employs Hansen's (1999) panel threshold regression model [Journal of Econometrics 39 (1999) 345–68] based on a time series dataset of 109 countries from 1960 to 2007 to investigate the threshold relationship between the change in real GDP per capita and the consumption size (consumption‐income ratio, APC). The results show that the consumption level should not exceed the 49.68% threshold of real GDP per capita for each country regardless of the income level. Also, the relationship between the change in real GDP per capita and the consumption size seems to have ‘Armey curve’ or ‘inverted‐U shape’ characteristic. In order to promote real GDP growth, our results suggest that the high‐income, low‐APC countries should encourage more consumption while the low‐income, high‐APC countries should encourage more saving.     

关于中国与OECD国家购买力平价比较研究结果及其评价

本文分析了中国购买力平价研究的背景,简要介绍了购买力平价测算的基本方法。在国家统计局以部分城市参加OECD1999年一轮购买力平价项目试验性合作研究的基础上,应用国际通用的方法,测算了1999年中国与OECD国家购买力平价比较的结果,即1美元=4.67元人民币,相当于当年汇率的57%;同时,介绍了国内外关于中国购买力平价研究的主要结果,分析它们之间存在差异的原因。通过对比分析认为,本研究结果基本合理,反映中国购买力平价研究的共同趋势。     

Explaining Differences in Economic Growth among OECD Countries

This paper re-examines the determinants of growth of GDP per capita using panel data for OECD countries for the period 1970–1999 with data averaged over five-year periods from new perspectives. First, we introduce indicators of innovation input and technological specialization simultaneously into the empirical growth equation. Second, we employ the system-GMM (Generalized-Method-of-Moments) panel estimator that controls for (a) the possible specification bias when variables are highly persistent over time and (b) the possible simultaneity bias. We find a large and statistically significant impact of business enterprise R&D (BERD) intensity on GDP per capita with an elasticity of 0.22. The share of high-technology exports is also significantly positively related to GDP per capita, but the magnitude suggests that BERD is more important than technological specialization in explaining the level of GDP per capita. Furthermore, we find that the budget deficit and government consumption (both measured as percentages of GDP) and the volatility of growth are significantly negatively related to GDP per capita.The authors would like to thank Gunther Tichy for helpful comments on an earlier draft of this article. We also thank the participants of the Austrian economic association conference (NOEG) and the Empirical Industrial Organization workshop at the WU WIEN for helpful comments. We gratefully acknowledge financial support from the OeNB Jubiläumsfonds Project and the Austrian Federal Ministry for Economy and Labor (BMWA).JEL codes: E62, H20, H50, O23, O40     

Do the global stochastic trends drive the real house prices in OECD countries?

This paper demonstrates that in the long-run the main determinants of the real housing prices for a panel dataset comprising the quarterly observations of 12 OECD countries are the real GDP per capita and the real interest rate along with the global stochastic trends.     

R&D,innovation and output: evidence from OECD and nonOECD countries

This article uses data from 41 OECD and nonOECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries to examine the predictions of nonscale endogenous growth theories that an increase in the share of researchers in labour force leads to an increase in innovation and innovation raises per capita output. The results show that an increase in the share of researchers in labour force increases innovation only in the large market OECD countries. Moreover, an increase in innovation raises per labour GDP (Gross Domestic Product) in all nonOECD countries except for low income countries, while raising it only in the high-income OECD countries. These findings suggest that though the large market OECD countries are the world leader in innovation, nonOECD countries benefit more from it in promoting their growth.     

An Index of Economic Well–Being for Selected OECD Countries

Per capita gross domestic product (GDP) is a poor indicator of economic well–being. It measures effective consumption poorly (ignoring the value of leisure and of longer life spans) and it also ignores the value of accumulation for the benefit of future generations. Since incomes are uncertain and unequally distributed, the average also does not indicate the likelihood that any particular individual will share in prosperity or the degree of anxiety and insecurity with which individuals contemplate their futures. We argue that a better index of economic well–being should consider: current effective per capita consumption flows; net societal accumulation of stocks of productive resources; income distribution; and economic security. The paper develops such an index of economic well–being for the U.S., U.K., Canada, Australia, Norway and Sweden for the period 1980 to 1999. It compares trends in economic well–being to trends in GDP per person. In every case, growth in economic well–being was less than growth in GDP per capita, although to different degrees in different countries.     

The cardiovascular revolution and economic performance in the OECD countries

We find strong evidence that variation in cardiovascular mortality from year 2000 to year 2012 helps to explain variation in income per capita across the OECD countries. Most of the source of variation, however, comes from Eastern Europe. Better diffusion of surgical and therapeutic treatments since the year 2000 has demonstrably benefitted those still in the labor force in these relatively poor nations.     

Australia, Japan and the OECD: GDP Rankings and Revealed Preference

Data on volumes and prices of consumption and investment are used to compare Australian real GDP for 1990 with the other OECD countries. Australian consumption patterns, including leisure, and price structure are very different from most other countries and especially from those of Japan. The Australian bundle of consumption, investment and leisure is revealed preferred to that of Japan and a number of other countries which are conventionally ranked above Australia in comparisons of real GDP per capita at international prices.     

Entrepreneurship, Economic Risks, and Risk Insurance in the Welfare State: Results with OECD Data 1978–93

We find evidence in the OECD cross-country data to support the Knightian view that non-diversifiable economic risks shape equilibrium entrepreneurship in an occupational choice model. Differential social insurance of entrepreneurial and labor risk is found to be statistically significant and detrimental to entrepreneurship. The crowding-out effect of public production of private goods on entrepreneurship dominates the crowding-in effect of public production of public goods in the OECD data. Weak evidence is found for the proposition that the rate of entrepreneurship is related to the degree of income inequality and to the union power in the economy. The results also suggest that in countries with low GDP per capita ratio, self-employment is high.     

Economic openness and income growth in developing countries: a regional comparative analysis

This article examines and compares the openness–growth relationship between the high-performing Asian economies (HPAEs) and the rest of the developing world (Sub-Saharan Africa-SSA, South East Asia-SEA and Latin America and Caribbean-LAC). We applied the SYS-GMM estimator to a dynamic standard endogenous growth model which relates economic openness to real per capita income growth. A few key findings emerged from this study. First, economic openness led to increase in real per capita GDP growth in HPAEs and SSA, but not in LAC and SEA. Second, openness to trade accelerated income convergence among countries in SSA, SEA, and HPAEs, however, whereas foreign direct investment inflows accelerated income convergence only in SSA, it rather de-accelerated income convergence in HPAEs. Thirdly, the HPAEs recorded higher positive effect of openness on real per capita GDP growth than any of the other developing regions because they created sufficient stock of human capital that enhanced their absorptive capacity of imported advanced technology. They also created a more stable macroeconomic environment which consolidated the income growth gains from openness. The results of this study highlight the importance of the implementation of policies that are complementary to economic openness in promoting economic growth in the developing world.     

Causality between credit depth and economic growth: evidence from 24 OECD countries

Causality between the ratio of domestic private credit to GDP and growth in real GDP per capita is investigated in a country-by-country time-series framework for 24 OECD economies over the period 1980–2013. The proposed threefold methodology to test for causal linkages integrates (1) lag-augmented VAR Granger causality tests, (2) Breitung–Candelon causality tests in the frequency domain, and (3) testing for causal inference based on a fully modified OLS (FMOLS) approach. For 12 of 24 countries in the sample, the three tests yield uniform results in terms of causality presence (absence) and direction. Causality running from credit depth to economic growth is found for the UK, Australia, Switzerland, and Greece. The findings lend no support to the view that financial development shifts from a supply-leading to demand-following pattern as economic development proceeds. The aggregate results mesh well with the current discussion on “too much finance” and disintermediation effects. However, idiosyncratic country determinants also appear significant.