Domestication experiments reveal developmental link between friendliness and cognition

The goal of economics is to understand human preferences. Most research focuses on adult humans and does not take an evolutionary approach. In biology experimental evolution has been able to shift the preferences of animals. As an example, artificial selection for friendly behavior toward humans results in a syndrome of changes that strongly resembles differences between wild and domestic animals. These domestication experiments have revealed precise genetic and neurobiological systems that are altered by the selection and linked through expanded windows of development. Similar evolutionary experiments selecting for a range of social, risk or discounting preferences could push economics toward consilience with biology. Prospects for a unified theory of economic behavior would be drastically improved.     

“Economics and Psychology”? The Case of Hyperbolic Discounting*

The article questions the methodology of “economics and psychology” in its focus on the case of hyperbolic discounting. Using some experimental results, I argue that the same type of evidence, which rejects the standard constant discount utility functions, can just as easily reject hyperbolic discounting as well. Furthermore, a decision‐making procedure based on similarity relations better explains the observations and is more intuitive. The article concludes that combining “economics and psychology” requires opening the black box of decision makers instead of modifying functional forms.     

Quasi-hyperbolic discounting and social security systems

Hyperbolic discounting has become a common assumption for modeling bounded rationality with respect to individual savings decisions. We examine the effects of hyperbolic discounting on the comparison of alternative social security systems. We show that this form of bounded rationality breaks the equivalence between funded and pay-as-you-go (PAYG) systems established in Sheshinski and Weiss [Sheshinski, E., Weiss, Y., 1981. Uncertainty and optimal social security. Quarterly Journal of Economics 95, 189-206]. Intergenerational transfers within a PAYG economy are usually secured by the social security system and independent of longevity, whereas this is not the case for the funded economy. The savings level under hyperbolic discounting is lower than under exponential discounting [Laibson et al., 1998], but the ratio between the savings level under hyperbolic discounting within a funded economy and a PAYG economy depends on the effectiveness of the commitment devices. It is shown that if individuals are hyperbolic discounters, then in a PAYG economy any change in the mandated level of intergenerational transfers is neutralized by individuals’ voluntary bequests. This does not apply to a funded system.     

Spreading academic pay over nine or twelve months: economists are supposed to know better,but do they act better?

Our article empirically considers two general hypotheses related to the literature of behavioural economics. First, we test the null hypothesis that individuals behave, on average, in a manner more consistent with the rational expectations hypothesis than with the idea of self-control in the face of hyperbolic discounting in their saving decisions. Second, along a variety of dimensions, we examine whether individuals exhibit Herbert Simon's notion that the goal formation of individuals will differ depending upon their relative levels of experience and knowledge. Perhaps there are significant differences among groups in their saving decisions that depend upon their apparent levels of intelligence, education and knowledge. Finally, using a variety of individual-specific control variables, we test for robustness of the results.     

Behavioural Economics,Hyperbolic Discounting and Environmental Policy

This paper reviews some recent research in “behavioural economics” with an application to environmental issues. Empirical results from behavioural economics provide a reminder that human behaviour is context-dependent, implying that policy may go awry if based upon models of behaviour which are inappropriate to the contexts in which decisions are made. Recognizing that agents may, in some contexts, systematically make mistakes raises challenging questions about the role of “paternalism” in government policy. The paper considers the research into hyperbolic discounting, and examines the implications for environmental policy. We develop a model of resource management under hyperbolic discounting, which shows that if a planner is unable to commit to a policy, the temptation to re-evaluate the policy in future could lead to an inadvertent collapse in the stocks of a natural resource.     

消费文化、认知偏差与消费行为偏差

本文放松了理性经济人假设,在行为经济学双曲线贴现模型框架下,以"自我控制"认知偏差及相应的模型参数设定对东西方消费文化差异进行了技术表达,进而阐明了消费过度(欧美国家)和消费不足(东亚国家)这两类消费行为偏差的形成机制。本文采用全球48个国家和地区1978—2007年的面板数据,以儒家虚拟变量和性生活指数作为消费文化的替代变量检验了文化与消费的关系。结果表明,在解释东西方消费率差异时,预防性储蓄等传统理论的解释力远低于不可观测的国家个体效应。儒家虚拟变量和性生活指数能分别解释国家个体效应的28%和58%。这表明消费文化等不随时间改变的个体因素比传统变量更能解释各国居民的消费差异。实践层面上,双曲线贴现模型中锁定技术能有效纠正"自我控制"认知偏差,从而消解儒家文化对消费的深度抑制,可为扩大内需政策创新提供思路启发和技术支撑。     

UNCERTAIN LIFETIME AND INTERTEMPORAL CHOICE: RISK AVERSION AS A RATIONALE FOR TIME DISCOUNTING*

This article makes explicit the links between preferences over lotteries on length of life and intertemporal choice. It shows that the approach used by traditional life cycle models to account for uncertain survival corresponds to a strong assumption of risk neutrality with respect to length of life. Relaxing such an assumption leads us to develop a more general formulation of lifetime utility in which time discounting is directly related to preferences over length of life. Exponential and hyperbolic discounting are found to result, in a first approximation, from constant and hyperbolic risk aversion with respect to length of life.     

Hyperbolic discounting and the time-consistent solution of three canonical environmental problems

In this paper I propose a time-consistent method of discounting hyperbolically and apply it to three canonical environmental problems: (i) optimal renewable resource use, (ii) the tragedy of the commons, and (iii) economic growth and pollution. I show that, irrespective of potentially high initial discount rates, time-consistent hyperbolic discounting leads always to a steady state of maximum yield, or, if the environment enters the utility function, a steady state where the Green Golden Rule applies. While (asymptotic) extinction is a real threat under exponential discounting it is impossible under time-consistent hyperbolic discounting. This result is also confirmed for open-access resources. In a model of economic growth and pollution, hyperbolic discounting establishes the Golden Rule of capital accumulation and the modified Green Golden Rule.     

A simple explanation of some key time preference anomalies

Abstract Individual time discounting behaviour experimentally exhibits important anomalies that are inconsistent with the standard discounted utility model. These include the time preference reversal characteristic of hyperbolic discounting, the magnitude effect and the extreme sign effect. I propose a simple explanation of discounting that accounts for these three anomalies simultaneously, within the context of the expected utility model with uncertainty, risk aversion, and preference for precautionary saving.     

Perspectives on Economics in the School Curriculum: Coursework,Content, and Research

This review describes the conditions for teaching economics in the kindergarten through twelfth grade (K–12) curriculum in U.S. schools. The first section presents data on course-taking in economics in high schools and state mandates for economics instruction. It discusses the value of the infusion approach to teaching economics either in place of a separate course or as a complement to it. The second section describes the economic content that is taught to students as presented in content guides and standards. The final section presents research findings on (1) test instruments for measuring outcomes from economics instruction, (2) the effect of teacher coursework and training on the student economic understanding, and (3) how instructional materials complement or substitute for instructor selection and training.     

Time preference and savings behaviour

A number of studies have examined various determinants of savings rate. This article contributes to this literature by empirically testing whether the time preference (discounting behaviour) is another important determinant of savings rate. To this end, we estimate the hyperbolic Euler equation using the generalized method of moments (GMM) to examine whether the short-run discount factor can account for savings behaviour. The empirical results show that people exhibit short-run patience (impatience) when savings rate increases (decreases), which is in line with the theoretical prediction. This result implies that the time preference also plays an important role in determining savings behaviour. Various sets of instruments and different sample periods do not reverse the main finding.     

Hyperbolic discounting and the standard model: Eliciting discount functions

Experiments on static intertemporal choice find evidence of particularly extreme impatience toward immediate rewards. While this is often taken as support for hyperbolic discounting, it could also arise because the most likely participants in experiments may be those with the most immediate need for money. We conduct a calibration exercise and find that the extreme impatience observed in experiments can be accommodated by a standard exponential discounting model with no discounting and expectation of a ‘small’ increase in the base consumption level. The calibration uses existing estimates of curvature of utility.     

Vouchers and caseworkers in training programs for the unemployed

This paper studies the role of vouchers and caseworkers in training programs for the unemployed. We explore the unique features of the Hartz reform in Germany which simultaneously introduced training vouchers and imposed more selective criteria on participants. This allows us to go beyond the standard approach when we estimate the treatment effects for the most important type of training. Next to assessing the overall impact of the reform on the training’s effectiveness, we isolate the impact induced by changes in the composition of program participants (selection effect) from the impact based on the introduction of vouchers and related institutional changes (institutional effect). Our results show a small positive overall impact of the reform. The decomposition suggests that the selection effect is, if at all, slightly negative, and that the introduction of the voucher and related institutional changes increased both employment and earnings of participants. It furthermore appears that our findings are driven by skilled participants.     

The prevalence of hyperbolic discounting: some European evidence

Experimental matching data are used from the 2000 Bank of Italy Survey of Household Income and Wealth (SHIW) and the 2000 wave of the Center for Economic Research (CentER) Savings Survey at Tilburg University to compare the relative frequencies of hyperbolic and exponential discounters. Among 3200 Italian respondents and 1400 Dutch respondents, less than a quarter exhibited hyperbolic discounting. This finding is both statistically significant and robust with respect to various assumptions regarding utility; moreover, it holds across a wide variety of economic, social and demographic characteristics. The youngest, poorest, most urban and least educated individuals are the most likely to be hyperbolic discounters. In addition, it is found that hyperbolic discounters accumulate less wealth and are somewhat less likely than exponential discounters to utilize commitment devices to constrain their future choices.     

Convex Time Budgets and Individual Discount Rates in the Long Run

The purpose of this study is to use experimental data to estimate individual discount rates and test for hyperbolic discounting over a long time horizon. To do this, we employ the convex time budget experimental approach with cash payments over a 20 year time horizon. To date, there are few experimental studies that explore discount rates beyond a 1 year time horizon. Previous experimental studies that focus on short time horizons find high discount rates, which may not be applicable to decisions that affect outcomes in the distant future. Our findings are quite similar to the average rate of 4.9% found by Grijalva et al. (Environ Resour Econ 59:39–63, 2014), who similarly use a 20 year time horizon, but use the multiple price list elicitation method along with payment via government savings bonds. We find annual discounts rates in the range of 1.9–5.5%, depending on the specific model used. We also find evidence for declining discount rates, and that this hyperbolic pattern of behavior is related to the confidence subjects have in receiving distant-future payments.     

Post-secondary vocational education and on-the-job training

This study about firm training costs and methods is based on a survey of Pennsylvania employers who employ members of seven technical and clerical occupations. The study analyses data on training costs and length of training time by occupation and establishment size. It measures the effect of education (new hires may have completed secondary or post-secondary education) and prior occupational experience on firm training variables as observed by employers. One surprising result is that respondents who state that they provide only general training incur costs of several thousand dollars per workers.     

To be consumed with moderation

We study the optimal behavior of a hyperbolic discounting agent who has incomplete information about his own preferences and can only learn them through consumption. We show that, even if moderate current consumption and moderate future consumption always dominates abstinence, the agent may optimally decide not to consume as a commitment device against inefficient learning that would lead to future excesses. This provides a rationale for why smokers, gamblers or compulsive buyers stick to second-best personal rules of behavior - such as “abstinence” - without invoking standard habit formation arguments. We also study how urges modify the strategy of the individual.     

Teacher training for PhD students and new faculty in economics

Past studies suggest that a majority of economics graduate students engage in teaching-related activities during graduate school and many go on to academic positions afterwards. However, not all graduate students are formally prepared to teach while in graduate school nor are they fully prepared to teach in their first academic position. The authors characterize current teaching experience and training of graduate students from the point of view of directors of graduate studies and of newly minted academic economists. The authors also query department chairs and new faculty about teacher training, support available for new faculty, and the degree to which newly hired Ph.D. economists are prepared to teach. Findings indicate that while some training is available, there is room for enhancing teacher training in economics.     

A theory of (relative) discounting

We derive a representation theorem for time preferences (on the prize-time space) which identifies a novel notion of relative discounting as the key ingredient. This representation covers a variety of time preference models, including the standard exponential and hyperbolic discounting models and certain non-transitive time preferences, such as the similarity-based and subadditive discounting models. Our axiomatic work thus unifies a number of seemingly disparate time preference structures, thereby providing a tractable mathematical format that allows for investigating certain economic environments without subscribing to a particular time preference model. This point is illustrated by means of an application to sequential bargaining theory.