Do Trees Grow with the Economy? A Spatial Analysis of the Determinants of Forest Cover Change in Sichuan,China

This paper aims to identify the relationship between economic growth and forest cover change in Sichuan, China. Using a set of panel land use data based on Landsat TM/ETM digital images, we show that during the late 1980s and 1990s, Sichuan’s forest cover initially decreased and then rose. We also note that the rising and falling trends occurred at the same time that Sichuan’s economy was going through a period of rapid and sustained growth. We use multivariate analysis to identify the determinants of forest cover change. In addition to using a first-differenced estimator, we also utilize spatial error and spatial lag models to obtain consistent and efficient estimates of the determinants of forest cover. Our analysis demonstrates the importance of economic growth on the forest cover change; the results show that there is a U-shaped relationship between forest cover and GDP per capita. However, despite the nature of the empirical relationship between forest cover and income, the high turning point of the U-shaped relationship suggests that there is no evidence for the existence of the Environmental Kuznets Curve for forests in Sichuan Province. Hence, policy interventions may be necessary to stop the decrease of forests.     

Trade liberalization and economic growth: a case study of Iran

We estimate the impact of trade liberalization and physical and human capital accumulation on Iran’s economic growth during the period 1959?2007. Using co-integration techniques and a vector error correction model, we find a unique long-run relationship between economic growth and its major determinants. These determinants include the physical and human capital stock, the labor force, real non-oil exports, and import tariffs. In addition, the short-term error correction dynamics analysis suggests that trade liberalization has a significant long run positive role in dynamic of growth. Our results support the view that the integration of the Iranian economy with the world economy is undoubtedly welfare improving.     

消费需求与经济增长关系的计量经济分析

消费需求是拉动经济增长的三驾马车之一,足以说明消费需求在经济增长中的重要地位.改革开放以来,伴随国民经济的快速发展和消费者收入的增加,我国的消费总量呈现出显著增加的趋势,消费结构得到不断的优化.本文基于计量经济学的基本理论,依据消费需求与经济增长之间的辨证关系,选用1978年以来我国经济发展和消费需求的32年数据,使用不同的计量经济方法,从经济增长的因素分析、经济增长对消费需求的影响和消费需求对经济增长的影响三个方面验证了消费需求与经济增长之间的数量关系和相互影响作用,同时利用格兰杰因果关系检验的方法确认了消费需求与经济增长之间互为因果的影响关系.数量关系的确立,为探求二者之间的变化趋势,进行科学决策提供了数量依据.     

The employment–population nexus and implications for sustainable economic development: insights from Irish regions using a partial adjustment model

In this paper, we use a partial adjustment model to analyse the relationship between employment and population growth in Irish district electoral divisions. We employ a spatial estimator to augment our partial adjustment model with a spatial lag and spatial error process. Our results indicate a dual relationship between employment and population growth, suggesting that not only do people follow jobs but also jobs follow people. This finding has implications for economic development policies, which typically focus solely on attracting jobs to a location. The results suggest that a dual-pronged approach to policy may be necessary including developing a region’s amenities to ensure that it is attractive to people and to stimulate population growth. We highlight how our analysis can be used to inform policy through the lenses of place-based and smart specialisation strategies.     

能源消费与经济增长的关联关系分析——基于山东省1980～2008年相关数据实证研究

能源消费与经济增长之间的关系一直是国内外关注的焦点,确定二者之间的因果关系方向具有重大的政策含义。在总结国内外研究成果的基础上,采用1980—2008年的相关统计数据,利用协整理论和Granger因果关系检验分析山东省能源消费与经济增长之间的关系,结果显示能源消费与经济增长具有长期趋势关系,且存在双向因果关系;通过对柯氏生产函数的扩展计量模型,采用广义最小二乘法进行估计,得出结论：山东省能源消费与经济增长呈正相关关系,经济增长对能源消耗的依赖程度较高。     

对外贸易、金融改革和经济增长:来自中国的证据

本文根据技术扩散模型阐释,中国的技术进步取决于它对先进技术的吸收能力和可吸收的世界先进技术集合的乘积。金融改革通过消除经济扭曲提升我国的吸收能力。如果国际先进技术通过对外贸易扩散到中国,那么对外贸易和金融改革在增长中就存在相互促进的作用。利用中国改革开放后的数据,我们没有发现对外贸易(出口或进出口)和金融改革在促进经济增长中有显著的互补作用。该结论在控制条件收敛、其他经济增长因素、分省和时间效应后成立,并在解决贸易的内生性后仍然稳健。将该结论和我们已发现的金融改革和外商直接投资在促进经济增长中有显著的互补作用的结果相对照,可见,与国际贸易相比,国际先进技术更可能通过外商直接投资扩散到中国。     

Information and Communication Technology (ICT) and Singapore’s economic growth

Singapore’s remarkable success in economic development has been strongly associated with the country’s vigorous efforts to embrace the Information and Communication Technology (ICT) revolution to promote economic growth. This study provides a comprehensive investigation of the contributions of ICT to Singapore’s economic growth during the 1990–2008 period. It documents three key findings. First, there is a strong positive association between the intensity of ICT use and value-added and labor productivity growth at the sector level. Second, ICT investment contributed approximately 1 percentage point to Singapore’s GDP during 1990–2008, and its role in driving economic growth has become increasingly important over time. Third, the contribution of the ICT manufacturing sector to Singapore’s growth was notable, but it was on the decline and faced difficult restructuring challenges. This paper also provides valuable policy lessons and strategic insights for governments in both developed and developing countries that aspire to embrace ICT to promote economic growth.     

Stock and credit market expansion and economic development in emerging markets: further evidence utilizing cointegration analysis

This paper empirically investigates the relationship between equity and credit market development and economic growth, in a sample of five very important ‘emerging’ markets. In particular, employing a multivariate time-series methodology to test for long-run trends and causality between variables that proxy for stock market development, credit market development and economic development. The results seem to suggest that equity markets have a role to play only in relatively liberalized economies, like Chile and Mexico. In financially repressed economies, like India, the equity market does not affect real sector growth. Furthermore, the banking crises in the 1980s and 1990s in Chile and Mexico resulted in a negative relation between economic growth and the credit market. In South Korea, equity and credit markets both affect economic growth, but not vice versa. In countries where the nature of the stock market has been speculative, like Taiwan, a negative relationship is detected between equity market development and economic development.     

Remittances and GDP in Jamaica: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach to Cointegration

Similar to other developing nations, Jamaica’s remittances, specifically inflows, are an important source of income support and foreign exchange earnings. Anecdotally, much has been said about the relationship between remittances and GDP in this country. Yet, less has been established using rigorous statistical inference. We test for unit roots with structural breaks and use the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration to help fill this lacuna in the literature on Jamaica. Using annual data for the 1976–2014 period, we examine the relationship between GDP and remittances, both measured in constant 2010 US dollar terms, as we control for the common determinants of economic growth. The main finding is that GDP and remittances are cointegrated relationship wherein they both reinforce each other positively. This finding is statistically robust as the ARDL models have well-behaved errors and parameters that are generally stable over the period. We discuss policy implications of this finding.     

INCOME INEQUALITY WITHIN EUROPEAN REGIONS: DETERMINANTS AND EFFECTS ON GROWTH

Economic inequality across Europe has been largely investigated by analyzing the determinants and dynamics of the disparities between countries and regions. Similarly, many studies have focused on inequality within European countries. So far, less attention has been devoted to economic inequality within European regions, mainly due to data shortages. The aim of this paper is to shed some light on this level of analysis. After the introductory section, the first part of the paper presents the conceptual bases of the study, examining relevant theoretical and empirical arguments about (i) the determinants of economic inequality, (ii) the relationship between economic inequality and growth, and (iii) the desirability and specificity of regional analysis. The second part of the paper, using various econometric approaches, provides evidence of the centrality of labor market qualitative and quantitative aspects and of some country-level institutional settings for regional inequality levels. As regards the effects of inequality on growth, the results suggest a positive relationship.     

对外经济开放、区域市场整合与全要素生产率

本文在新增长理论的框架下,构建了一个对外经济开放和区域市场整合内生化全要素生产率的模型。在此基础上,利用中国1985—2008年的省际面板数据,采用工具变量两阶段最小二乘法(2SLS)实证检验了对外经济开放和区域市场整合对省际全要素生产率的影响。研究结果表明,对外经济开放和区域市场整合对中国省际全要素生产率都产生了显著的正向影响效应,而且二者存在替代关系。进一步的分析指出,在对外经济开放水平较高的沿海地区,区域市场整合对省际全要素生产率的影响效应较低,而在内陆地区则恰好相反。本文为理解中国省际全要素生产率的变化提供了新的视角,对后金融危机时代如何提升地区技术水平、转变经济增长方式也具有一定的启发意义。     

需求要素对中国经济增长影响的实证研究——基于边限检验理论的视角

在建立无约束误差修正模型的基础上，运用边限检验方法对需求要素对中国经济增长影响的实证研究表明，中国经济增长与需求因素之间存在长期稳定关系，需求的不同组成部分对中国经济增长有不同的影响。在长期，只有资本形成总额的影响显著，在短期内，需求各要素对中国经济增长都有显著的影响。     

Entrepreneurship and income inequality: a spatial panel data analysis

The main objective of this paper is to empirically analyze the relationship between entrepreneurship and income inequality. We use a spatial panel data analysis for both 33 high-income countries and 39 middle- and low-income countries over a period of 11 years. Estimation results and rigorous diagnostic analysis suggest that: (i) there is a strong support for the existence of an inverted U-shaped relationship between entrepreneurship and income inequality espoused by the Kuznets Curve hypothesis; (ii) the relationship between entrepreneurship and income inequality is negatively moderated by country’s level of economic development; (iii) regardless of income inequality levels, entrepreneurship has a non-linear relationship with income per capita; (iv) gross domestic expenditure on research and development exhibits significant negative impacts on entrepreneurship; (v) significant mixed effects on the likelihood of entrepreneurial activity are observed with governance, globalization, population growth rate, and competitiveness variables; (vi) there are significant mixed feedback effects on entrepreneurship; and (vii) there are statistically significant, positive as well as negative spatial spillovers to country-level entrepreneurial activity.     

FDI与产业结构升级:西部的实证分析

FDI对区域经济增长的影响,需要依靠区位优势在产业结构升级中体现,FDI对区域经济增长的产业结构调整具有明显的资源补充和产业引导功能。西部地区的开发要实现增长方式的转变,要充分发挥FDI的作用,引进外资和技术实现产业结构整合和区位优势。针对我国西部地区经济增长的产业发展现状,如何实现FDI与区位产业发展优势的有效结合,引导FDI的溢出绩效和产业收敛效应成为中西部地区经济增长与政策制定的关键。以陕西区域经济增长数据为背景,分析了FDI对产业结构的影响。结果表明,在西部区域经济发展中,FDI的作用还需要在产业结构升级换代中不断强化,在政策上进行有效调整和引导。     

Productivity growth of the cities of Jiangsu province,China: a Kaldorian approach

This paper considers the determinants of economic growth of the cities of Jiangsu province, China, adopting a Kaldorian approach. It is found that there is a close correlation between the growth of non-industry and industry (Kaldor’s first law) that provides indirect evidence for the export-base theory. The paper discusses two competing explanations of the foundations of the Verdoorn law (Kaldor’s second law), which, in its simplest form, is the relationship between industrial productivity and output growth. It also considers the static–dynamic Verdoorn law paradox. This arises from the fact that estimating the Verdoorn law in log-levels often gives statistically insignificant estimates of the Verdoorn coefficient while the use of growth rates gives significant values of around one half. The results show that this does not occur when data for the cities are used. A plausible explanation for the paradox is that it results from spatial aggregation bias. It is also found that inter-province urban productivity disparities first increase, but subsequently decrease over the period considered.     

创业活动与经济增长内在关系研究

近年来国内外经济学家对于创业活动与经济增长的关系进行了积极的研究与探索,对于进一步展开研究提供了丰富的资料。对经济增长的理论进行了简要的叙述,通过图示方法把创业活动对经济增长的影响作用进行了详细的介绍;在利用计量经济学模型对二者间关系进行实证分析的基础上,得出二者间具有相互促进作用的结论;最后,针对我国目前的经济状况,分别从政府、企业、理论三个角度提出政策建议。     

外商直接投资与我国工业环境污染的相关性研究

以中国经济增长和居民消费水平作为自变量建立模型,并运用Stata10.0软件对中国1985—2010年的相关数据对外商直接投资与工业环境污染(工业废水、废气、废弃物)的关系进行计量检验,结果表明:外商直接投资对中国工业环境污染存在显著影响,并对三废的影响均呈现负相关关系。     

The Pattern of IMF Lending: An Analysis of Prediction Failures

In a constantly changing economic environment, a country's ability to undertake institutional reforms is crucial to maintain economic growth and to promote the welfare of its citizens. A wide range of determinants for institutional reforms have been identified. However, the impact of trust on reforms has not been fully addressed. We provide theoretical arguments why trust should influence institutional changes and test the relationship empirically. We find a significant positive relation between trust and the success of reforms with regard to government size, the legal system, and deregulation of private businesses and the labor market. Other policy fields are ambiguous.     

The New View of Minerals and Economic Growth*

Resource economists have long been fascinated by the relationship between minerals and economic growth. This interest has historically been based in pan on the concern that mineral resources may someday constrain world economic growth, or worse, force a painful reduction in the living standards of the industrialized countries In recent years, however, a very different view of minerals and economic growth has emerged. This new view maintains that economic growth has over the last decade or two become ‘uncoupled’ or independent of minerals and other primary products. Economic growth no longer requires an increase in mineral consumption, and no longer stimulates the demand for metals and other mineral commodities. The new view offers an explanation for the stagnation in metal and mineral consumption since the early 1970s, and presumably was fostered by the depressed conditions of mineral markets over the past decade. An examination of the forces behind the stagnation, however, suggests that the new view is only partially correct Sectoral shifts, the rise of high technology products within manufacturing, resource-saving technology, and material substitution have together caused intensity-of-use trends to deteriorate. As a result, metal consumption can now remain constant or even decline at the same time the economy is expanding, if rate of economic expansion is less than the rate of decline in intensity-of-use. While the relationship between minerals and economic growth has changed in recent years, the two are not independent Faster economic growth requires and stimulates faster growth (or a slower decline) in mineral consumption. This finding has implications for both the short- and long-run behaviour of metal and mineral markets.     

The Trade Cycle1

Abstract

The long-run relationship between polity change and economic growth has been considered by a number of researchers, yet no clear consensus has emerged concerning the causal link between these two important measures of progress. This study used various estimation methods based on different assumptions of the unknown error structure to investigate this relationship in 154 countries from 1961 to 2007. First, we found no globally significant relationship between polity change and economic growth. However, we found several significant relationships at the local level, including (a) a positive relationship in the 1980s and in Africa and (b) a negative relationship in the 1970s and in Europe. Second, we found that previous economic growth hinders democracy, albeit slightly; in contrast, the influence of democracy on economic growth is negligible.