中国助学贷款的制度设计与选择

在公共预算紧缩的压力下，政府通过实施高等教育成本分担计划扩大高等教育机构非公共收入来源已成为一种全球性的趋势。助学贷款则是实施教育成本分担的配套资助计划的必然选择之一。如何遵循助学贷款制度设计良性的“路径依赖”轨迹，并充分借鉴发达国家助学贷款制度设计的成功经验，对中国的助学贷款制度进行有效地设计与选择，本文予以尝试性地探索。     

The Internet and other networks: utilization rates and their implications

Costs of communications networks are determined largely by the maximal capacities of those networks. On the other hand, the traffic those networks carry depends on how heavily those networks are used. Hence, utilization rates and utilization patterns determine the costs of providing services and, therefore, are crucial in understanding the economics of communications networks. A comparison of utilization rates and costs of various networks helps disprove many popular myths about the Internet. Although packet networks are often extolled for the efficiency of their transport, it often costs more to send data over internal corporate networks than using modems on the switched voice network. Packet networks are growing explosively not because they utilize underlying transport capacity more efficiently but because they provide much greater flexibility in offering new services. Study of utilization patterns shows there are large opportunities for increasing the efficiency of data transport and making the Internet less expensive and more useful. On the other hand, many popular techniques, such as some Quality of Service measures and ATM, are likely to be of limited usefulness.     

Policy: A Computer Program for Student Use in Courses on Economic Policy

The design of this computer program allows students, working independently and interactively with the computer, to select alternative market conditions and/or policies and view the results numerically as well as graphically.     

Forward rates and the expectations theory of the term structure: Tests for the Federal Republic of Germany

The expectations theory of the term structure was tested using data from West German capital and money markets for the period 1975:01–1986:12. If forward rates implicit in the term structure are market expectations of future spot rates, and if term premia are not time-dependent, then forward rates should follow a martingale sequence. This hypothesis was tested with the aid of standard time series techniques (autocorrelation functions, Box-Pierce, unit-roots,F-tests and co-integration). The expectations theory was for the most part rejected, although the martingale property, or equivalently, weak form efficiency, held for the latter part of the test period. The rejection of the simple expectations theory is consistent with the hypothesis of time-varying term premia. The author thanks an anonymous referee and especially Prof. Dr. J. Wolters (Free University of Berlin) for helpful comments and criticism.     

Paying for freedom: Indentured labour and strategic default

The focus of this paper is on labour arrangements characterized by indenture, bondage, or slavery, and the design of credit market policies to free these labourers. We examine bonded or indentured labourers that pay a fee to their patrons or employers for freedom from bondage in a multi-period game between the patron, labourers, and other lenders, where a labourer borrows the fee from a third party lender. Labourers are heterogeneous: they differ in their cost of committing strategic default in repaying the loan. The patron’s determination of the fee, and the possibility of strategic default by the labourer, are two key features that drive our results. Productivity gains are greatest when labourers with both high and low default costs pay the fee. However, there also exists a less socially optimal outcome where only the low default cost labourer participates. Importantly, we also develop a theory of the existence and persistence of bondage.     

Leaders in change : Solar energy owners and the implications for future adoption rates

Information on the characteristics of the initial wave of homeowners who installed solar energy systems is presented and then used to anticipate future solar market penetration patterns. Surveys of these adopters reveal high education and income levels; professional and executive occupations; economic, energy saving, and environmental concern as the principal purchase motivations; and high satisfaction levels. As a group, these individuals conform to the “early adopter” type identified in innovation diffusion research rather than the “innovator” type that would be expected at this early stage of commercialization. This characteristic, the influence of economic motivations, owners' high satisfaction levels, and the findings of other surveys indicate that widespread solar system adoption is probable if the initial high cost barrier can be reduced.     

Sovereign default risk and decentralization: Evidence for emerging markets

We study the impact of decentralization on sovereign default risk. Theory predicts that decentralization deteriorates fiscal discipline since subnational governments undertax/overspend, anticipating that, in the case of overindebtedness, the federal government will bail them out. We analyze whether investors account for this common pool problem by attaching higher sovereign yield spreads to more decentralized countries. Using panel data on up to 30 emerging markets in the period 1993–2008 we confirm this hypothesis. Higher levels of fiscal and political decentralization increase sovereign default risk. Moreover, higher levels of intergovernmental transfers and a larger number of veto players aggravate the common pool problem.     

The suspension of borrowing: an implicit penalty for loan default under imperfect information

A credit seeker may be suspended from borrowing for a period of time due to a previous default. Such suspension is widely used in bank lending through credit check. Our work analyses the effects of suspension on the investment choice of borrowers under uncertainty and on the lending policy of banks facing asymmetric information. We show that suspension should be tightened at low loan rates, but loosened otherwise, to improve the repayment performance of borrowers. We also show that although credit rationing may not be completely removed due to imperfect information, the excess demand for credit or transitive waiting in the market can actually be attenuated by such efficient use of suspension. Our theoretical predictions are consistent with observed cyclical patterns of changes in lendingrates and suspension severity.     

Efficiency, depth and growth: Quantitative implications of finance and growth theory

We develop a parsimonious finance and endogenous growth model with microeconomic frictions in entrepreneurship and a role for credit constraints. We demonstrate that though an efficiency–growth relation will always exist, the efficiency–depth–growth relation may not. This has implications for the connection between the theory and empirics of finance and growth. We go on to ask whether the model can account for some historical trends in growth, financial depth and financial efficiency for the UK over the period 1850–1913. The best model of finance and growth is one that departs from the standard depth–growth link.     

Empirical and public choice evidence for hyperbolic social discount rates and the implications for intergenerational discounting

The derivation of the correct discount rate for intergenerational projects in Cost Benefit Analysis is particularly contentious. Public choice has resulted in lower discretionary exponential discount rates for many intergenerational projects in Britain and the USA. This is shown to be strong indirect evidence that the true social discount rate may be a hyperbolic (rather than an exponential) function. There is also empirical evidence for this hypothesis. The hyperbolic nature of discounting is also a standard finding in the behavioural sciences. For intergenerational time frames hyperbolic discount rates should be employed together with exponential discount rates in cost-benefit sensitivity analyses.Sincere thanks to Maureen Cropper and Paul Portney for supplying their survey results and to Elaine Barrow and Phillip Judge for graphics assistance. Two anonymous referees also provided valuable comments.     

The relationship between risk-neutral and actual default probabilities: the credit risk premium

The study investigates empirically the relationship between the risk-neutral measure Q and the real-world measure P. We study the ratio between the risk-neutral and actual default intensities, which we call the coverage ratio or the relative credit risk premium. Actual default intensities are derived from rating agencies annual transition matrices, while risk-neutral default intensities are bootstrapped from CDS quotes of European corporates. We quantify the average risk premium and its changes over time. Compared to related literature, special attention is given to the effects of the recent financial and European sovereign crises. We find that average credit risk premia rose substantially and that post-crisis levels are still higher than those observed before the financial crisis. This observation is especially true for high-quality debt and if it persists, it will have an impact on corporates funding costs. The quantification and revision of risk premia contributes to the discussion of the credit spread puzzle and could give extra insights in valuation models that start from real-world estimates. Our work is furthermore important in the context of state aid assessment. The real economic value (REV) methodology, applied by the European Commission to evaluate impaired portfolios, is based on a long-term average risk premium.     

Targeting in Medicaid: The costs and enrollment effects of Medicaid's citizenship documentation requirement

The Deficit Reduction Act of 2005 imposed a federal requirement that all individuals provide citizenship documentation when applying for or renewing Medicaid coverage. This represented a change in policy for 46 states. Using differences-in-differences to analyze data from the Current Population Survey (2004–2008), this paper shows that the policy reduced Medicaid enrollment among non-citizens, as intended, and did not significantly affect citizens. One-in-four adult non-citizens in Medicaid (390,000 total) and one-in-eight child non-citizens (81,000) were screened out by the policy annually. Child non-citizens were more likely to become uninsured afterwards, while adult non-citizens appeared to shift from Medicaid to other coverage.Overall, the citizenship documentation requirement reduced Medicaid participation among non-citizens in an appropriately targeted way. Nonetheless, a cost-benefit analysis indicates that the policy was a net loss to society of $600 million, through increased state administrative spending and compliance costs imposed on U.S. citizens applying for Medicaid.     

The impact of the Bolsa Escola/Familia conditional cash transfer program on enrollment, dropout rates and grade promotion in Brazil

We examine the impact of Brazil's Bolsa Escola/Familia program on Brazilian children's education outcomes. Bolsa provides cash payments to poor households if their children (ages 6 to 15) are enrolled in school. Using school census data to compare changes in enrollment, dropping out and grade promotion across schools that adopted Bolsa at different times, we estimate that the program has: increased enrollment by about 5.5% (6.5%) in grades 1-4 (grades 5-8); lowered dropout rates by 0.5 (0.4) percentage points in grades 1-4 (grades 5-8); and raised grade promotion rates by 0.9 (0.3) percentage points in grades 1-4 (grades 5-8). About one third of Brazil's children participate in Bolsa, so assuming no spillover effects onto non-participants implies that Bolsa's impacts are three times higher than these estimates. However, simple calculations using enrollment impacts suggest that Bolsa's benefits in terms of increased wages may not exceed its costs.     

美国SBA小企业信贷融资服务模式及其启示

在过去的20年里（1992-2012年）,小企业创造了美国超过2／3的新增就业岗位,2800万家小企业雇佣了6000万美国人,占私人部门劳动力的50％。值得关注的是,美国小企业管理局（Small Business Administration,SBA）对于美国小企业创新创业发展发挥了巨大的积极作用,提供了大量的贷款、融资担保、政府采购服务、商业咨询服务以及其他多种形式的服务等,其中小企业信贷融资服务是SBA最为成功的服务模式,具有丰富的实践经验。通过分析美国SBA在促进小企业信贷融资方面的成功实践,为我国政府在促进中小企业创新创业发展方面提供经验借鉴。     

印度小额信贷的发展及借鉴

本文介绍和分析了印度小额信贷的需求和供给、机构的类型、各类机构的弱点、政府在小额信贷活动中的作用、小额信贷的发展趋势,结合两国小额信贷项目的异同,讨论了它对我国在该领域内的启示。     

The newer antipsychotics: evidence for cost-effectiveness and policy implications

SUMMARY

The current reluctance in some health authorities to provide full funding for the use of the new generation of antipsychotics is not in the best interests of patients or the National Health Service. Schizophrenia is a complex and costly disease, which relies too much on hospital care because of funding shortages elsewhere.

New research attitudes are required to assist health policy decisions. Economic evaluations using evidence solely from randomised controlled trials (RCTs) are insufficient and give a partial and potentially misleading picture. The complexity of the illness and its outcomes in schizophrenia as well as the social influences on hospital admission and discharge exaggerate methodological difficulties arising from the nature of RCTs. The long-term, relapsing nature of the disease in many patients means that long-term evidence must be considered from non-randomised observational studies.

This paper discusses recent reviews and major publications in order to examine the economic arguments for newer atypicals as a class. The economic data published to date consistently suggest that these newer agents should not increase the direct costs of treating schizophrenia and may in fact reduce them. As there are undoubted patient benefits, not least a reduction in side effects, especially extrapyramidal symptoms (EPS) with the potential to improve compliance and reduce relapse, the range of atypicals might be made available and the clinician allowed to make a choice based on clinical not economic grounds.

The funding of these newer agents, although they are ultimately of benefit to patients and to the NHS, stretches already sparse resources. The likely freeing up of beds previously blocked by patients on older 'conventional' treatments will allow them to be used by those patients who currently escape the net. This will further increase funding requirements as more patients present for treatment. There are ethical, clinical and political grounds for increasing funding for the treatment of schizophrenia to take advantage of the biggest revolution in antipsychotic therapy since the launch of the first neuroleptics.     

Electoral Balancing in Federal and Sub-national Elections: The Case of Canada

The major premise of this study is that in federal countries voters can balance and moderate national policy by dividing electoral support between different parties in federal and sub-national elections. We compare the non-concurrent federal and provincial elections in Canada to assess the balancing properties of sub-national elections. The balancing hypothesis implies that the federal incumbent party may suffer additional electoral losses in provincial elections. We use several statistical tests - ordinary OLS, fixed effect and unbalanced random effect cross-section time series - to analyze Canadian electoral data for the period of 1949-1997. All tests sustain that the incumbent party at the federal level loses votes in provincial elections.