Tariffs and income: a time series analysis for 24 countries

We argue for a new approach to examining the relationship between tariffs and growth. We demonstrate that more can be learned from time series analyses of the experience of individual countries rather than the usual panel data approach, which imposes a causal relation and presents an average coefficient for all countries. Tentative initial results using simple two-variable cointegrated VAR models suggest considerable heterogeneity in the experiences of the countries we look at. For most, however, there was a negative relationship between tariffs and levels of income for both the pre- and post-Second World War periods. However, in the second half of the twentieth century, the causality ran from income to tariffs: that is, countries simply liberalized as they got richer. Policy decisions based on the usual panel approach might thus be very inappropriate for individual countries.     

UK money demand 1873–2001: a long-run time series analysis and event study

This paper performs a multivariate cointegration analysis of UK money demand 1873–2001, and illustrates how a long-run time series analysis may be conducted on a data set characterized by turbulent episodes and institutional changes. We suggest accounting for the effects of the two world wars by estimating additive data corrections, thereby allowing the propagation of war-time shocks to be fundamentally different from the transmission of peace-time innovations. In addition, the corrected series may be used in counterfactual event studies to assess the impacts of special events. In the empirical analysis we find a single equilibrium relationship relating velocity to opportunity costs, and we identify a significant link between excess money and inflation. After accounting for the turbulent periods, the equilibrium structure is reasonably stable over a period of 130 years. The empirical analysis was carried out using the OxMetrics software, see Doornik (2002). Ox procedures to estimate the vector equilibrium correction model with additive corrections are available from the author upon request.     

改革开放30年的历史回顾与总结

通过对改革开放30年的历史回顾与总结,阐述了改革开放是新中国经济发展的必然选择,提出科学发展观是作为马克思主义关于发展的世界观和方法论的集中体现,是对我国改革开放30年发展历程做出科学总结的产物,科学发展是中国改革开放未来的必由之路.     

基于谈判能力与网络效应的零售业通道费研究

通道费是零售商发展到一定阶段后其市场力量增强的产物,这种市场力量主要来源于其更高的销售效率和更显著的网络效应.研究表明,通道费是协调渠道成员利益关系的重要工具,零售商并没有滥用这种市场力量,政府没有必要对超市收取通道费的行为进行限制,而是应将政策重点放在通道费的调整和规范上.     

French economic cycles: a wavelet analysis of French retrospective GNP series

Although 50 years of scientific work has been invested in building retrospective economic time series, their reliability is still debated, a good example being the two competing nineteenth century French GNP series. Instead of trying to bring up some new details to gauge their respective accuracy, we propose a different route, i.e. testing the intrinsic features of these two series, in absolute terms first, then by benchmarking them to a non-retrospective time series. In order to do that, we rely on new mathematical tools—wavelet spectrum analysis—developed in signal processing. This leads to a new approach, which separates the accuracy of a series between amplitude and time variations, and brings nuanced conclusions as to which of the two series tested is the best: indeed, since a trade-off is almost inescapable between the two criterions of accuracy, the statistical quality of one retrospective time series tends to linger either on one side (amplitude level) or the other (time variations). Our study also shows that variance distribution along the time axis is a good proxy for complex retrospective series accuracy.

The effects of filled waiting time and service provider control over the delay on evaluations of service

This article reports on an experiment that investigated the effects of a delay, perceived control over a delay, and the extent to which time was filled during the delay on various performance evaluations in a service encounter. It was determined that delays lower customers’ overall evaluations of service and of the tangible and reliability attributes of the service in particular. When delayed, performance evaluations were affected by whether the service provider was perceived to have control over the delay and whether the customer’s waiting time was filled. Overall performance evaluations and performance evaluations of tangibility, reliability, and responsiveness were highest when perceived service provider control was low and the waiting customer’s time was filled. These evaluations were lowest when perceived service provider control was high and waiting time was not filled. She received her Ph.D. from the University of British Columbia.     

Modelling trends and cycles in economic time series: historical perspective and future developments

This paper provides a retrospective on the modelling of trends and cycles in economic time series and considers where the research agenda currently stands and where future developments might lie. A brief survey of the early empirical research on trends and cycles is first provided before attention is focused on four papers published in 1961—our ‘annus mirabilis’ of trend and cycle modelling—which we argue have been ‘prime movers’ in various aspects of research in this area. The links from these papers to current research issues are then teased out before the likely future directions of research in both theoretical and applied aspects of the modelling of trends and cycles are considered.

超市通道费法律调整若干问题探讨——再论“零供”关系法律调整

超市通道费(进场费)是近年来社会议论的热点问题之一.<零售商供应商公平交易管理办法>颁布后,有关该问题的争论仍在延续.有人认为<办法>首次禁止了进场费.也有人认为<办法>的出台等于承认了进场费的合法性.本文从零售商的经营模式、赢利模式沿革出发,简要分析超市通道费是否妨碍市场公平竞争、是否导致物价上涨损害消费者利益等问题,并对通道费的分类及其法律调整进行探讨.     

城乡统筹发展任重道远

城乡差距在改革开放前本就存在,加之改革开放中城乡发展速度的明显差异,随着改革的深入,城乡差距凸显。要想消除城乡差距,必须城乡统筹发展。但城乡差距不是短期能够消除的,城乡统筹发展需要始终坚持。为了尽快消除城乡差距,使城乡统筹发展落到实处,必须规定一些硬性指标,同时,必须从制度层面抑制政府官员的城市偏好。     

城乡统筹发展任重道远

城乡差距在改革开放前本就存在,加之改革开放中城乡发展速度的明显差异,随着改革的深入,城乡差距凸显。要想消除城乡差距,必须城乡统筹发展。但城乡差距不是短期能够消除的,城乡统筹发展需要始终坚持。为了尽快消除城乡差距,使城乡统筹发展落到实处,必须规定一些硬性指标,同时,必须从制度层面抑制政府官员的城市偏好。     

电子支付系统中的网络效应研究

在经济学的理论框架下，本文对“网络外部性”与“网络效应”进行了明确界定，并以电子支付系统为例，通过建立完全信息下的静态博弈模型，分析了网络效应对电子支付系统市场的影响。     

三种典型概率分布在商场销售分析中的应用

在市场经济条件下 ,商业企业的整个经营过程中 ,最难预料的是市场销售情况。本文运用概率统计的三种典型分布来分析研究商场销售情况这一随机现象 ,从而提出解决商场销售最佳决策。     

Examing the effects of positive social labeling,time, and request sizes on compliance in a multistage marketing survey context

Following the lead of Reingen and Bearden (1983), this study examines the effectiveness of positive social labeling, particularly in conjunction with other factors, as a means of influencing verbal and behavioral compliance in a multistage marketing survey context. Such results offer a systematic extension to the labeling literature and provide further insight into labeling’s role as a practicable method of shaping and stimulating respondent behavior.     

关于以德治国的思考

德治是人类社会用道德控制和评价社会成员行为的一种手段。其主要实现形式有：榜样示范，道德礼仪，教化活动，制定乡规民约和宗教家法，舆论褒贬。德治与人治没有必然的联系，只有民主的基础上的德治才是真正的德治。人民是“治国”的主体，要以德治国，就必须以德“育”民，提高人民的“治国”能力，概括为：克明俊德、以民为本、立身惟正、明道善策、举贤任能、教而后刑。官员是社会道德活动的主体之一，以德治国，必须重视以德育官，以增强理论功力、实践能力、人格魅力。建设有中国特色的社会主义，一定要以法治国，以德固基。     

新所得税准则对上市公司的影响

新所得税准则采用了与国际会计准则一致的递延纳税法,而且是资产负债表债务法,这与以前的利润表债务法有根本的不同,企业的资产账面值和资产的计税基础之间的差异比以前损益项目的时间性差异宽泛的多,调整的内容也更多。本文通过对相关概念、所得税计算方法、账户设置、会计确认及计量等方面的对比,对新所得税会计准则进行了比较全面的解析并对有关规定提出了自己的看法。     

关于创建学习型行政学院的思考

学习型组织作为一种管理理念已被广泛用于社会、企业、政府、机关管理之中。把陕西省行政学院建设成学习型行政学院，既是促进学院发展，充分发挥学院职能的需要，又是解决学院目前存在的一些主要问题的重要途径。     

Multigeneration innovation diffusion: The impact of intergeneration time

This research focuses on the diffusion patterns of the adjacent generations of technology and its relation to the time that elapses between them (intergeneration time). The authors analyze 45 new technologies in 15 industries and find that the adoption curves systematically vary across generations from 2 years for dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) chips to more than 30 years for steelmaking. The longer the intergeneration time, the slower the adoption of the subsequent technology. Even though once the adoption begins imitation is greater for subsequent technologies, the slow initial innovation rate, driven by resistance to upgrading, retards adoption. The authors also demonstrate that predictions based on intergeneration time plus average patterns are more accurate than data-based predictions early in life cycles when such predictions are most crucial. Improved early predictions can provide advantages in terms of both making go versus no-go decisions and planning marketing and production. Jae H. Pae (Ph.D., Columbia University) is an assistant professor of marketing at Hong Kong Polytechnic University. He received his B.A. in anthropology from Seoul National University, Korea. His current research interests include adoption of innovation, new product forecasting, and marketing strategy. He has published in several journals, including theJournal of Product Innovation Management, theJournal of Business Research, and theJournal of Advertising Research. Donald R. Lehmann (Ph.D., Purdue University) is George E. Warren Professor of Business at Columbia University Graduate School of Business. He has a B.S. degree in mathematics from Union College, Schenectady, New York, and an M.S.I.A. and Ph.D. from the Krannert School of Purdue University. His research interests include modeling individual choice and decision making, understanding group and interdependent decisions, meta-analysis, and the introduction and adoption of innovations. He has taught courses in marketing, management, and statistics at Columbia and has also taught at Cornell, Dartmouth, and New York University. He has published in and served on the editorial boards of theJournal of Consumer Research, theJournal of Marketing, theJournal of Marketing Research, Management Science, andMarketing Science and was founding editor ofMarketing Letters. In addition to numerous journal articles, he has published four books:Marketing Research and Analysis, Analysis for Marketing Planning, Product Management, andMeta Analysis in Marketing. He has served as executive director of the Marketing Science Institute and as president of the Association for Consumer Research.     

Measuring and maximizing customer equity: a critical analysis

Customer equity, the asset value of customers, can be measured using different aggregate- and disaggregate-level approaches. The authors compare how customer equity is measured and maximized under various approaches. We find that, in the disaggregate-level approach, customer lifetime value is maximized by implementing customer-level strategies such as optimal resource allocation, purchase sequence analysis and balancing acquisition and retention spending. At the aggregate-level, improving the drivers of customer equity maximizes customer equity. A comparison of different aggregate approaches shows that, while an emphasis on retention is a common feature across approaches, conceptual differences in terms of accounting for existing customers and prospects, acquisition, and the projection period exist across the different approaches. The authors propose a hybrid approach, which addresses the issues and challenges in existing approaches and helps firms to measure and manage customer equity.

Ranking economic history journals: a citation-based impact-adjusted analysis

This study ranks—for the first time—12 international academic journals that have economic history as their main topic. The ranking is based on data collected for the year 2007. Journals are ranked using standard citation analysis where we adjust for age, size and self-citation of journals. We also compare the leading economic history journals with the leading journals in economics in order to measure the influence on economics of economic history, and vice versa. With a few exceptions, our results confirm the general idea about what economic history journals are the most influential for economic history, and that, although economic history is quite independent from economics as a whole, knowledge exchange between the two fields is indeed going on.