Tariffs and income: a time series analysis for 24 countries

We argue for a new approach to examining the relationship between tariffs and growth. We demonstrate that more can be learned from time series analyses of the experience of individual countries rather than the usual panel data approach, which imposes a causal relation and presents an average coefficient for all countries. Tentative initial results using simple two-variable cointegrated VAR models suggest considerable heterogeneity in the experiences of the countries we look at. For most, however, there was a negative relationship between tariffs and levels of income for both the pre- and post-Second World War periods. However, in the second half of the twentieth century, the causality ran from income to tariffs: that is, countries simply liberalized as they got richer. Policy decisions based on the usual panel approach might thus be very inappropriate for individual countries.     

UK money demand 1873–2001: a long-run time series analysis and event study

This paper performs a multivariate cointegration analysis of UK money demand 1873–2001, and illustrates how a long-run time series analysis may be conducted on a data set characterized by turbulent episodes and institutional changes. We suggest accounting for the effects of the two world wars by estimating additive data corrections, thereby allowing the propagation of war-time shocks to be fundamentally different from the transmission of peace-time innovations. In addition, the corrected series may be used in counterfactual event studies to assess the impacts of special events. In the empirical analysis we find a single equilibrium relationship relating velocity to opportunity costs, and we identify a significant link between excess money and inflation. After accounting for the turbulent periods, the equilibrium structure is reasonably stable over a period of 130 years. The empirical analysis was carried out using the OxMetrics software, see Doornik (2002). Ox procedures to estimate the vector equilibrium correction model with additive corrections are available from the author upon request.     

改革开放30年的历史回顾与总结

通过对改革开放30年的历史回顾与总结,阐述了改革开放是新中国经济发展的必然选择,提出科学发展观是作为马克思主义关于发展的世界观和方法论的集中体现,是对我国改革开放30年发展历程做出科学总结的产物,科学发展是中国改革开放未来的必由之路.     

基于谈判能力与网络效应的零售业通道费研究

通道费是零售商发展到一定阶段后其市场力量增强的产物,这种市场力量主要来源于其更高的销售效率和更显著的网络效应.研究表明,通道费是协调渠道成员利益关系的重要工具,零售商并没有滥用这种市场力量,政府没有必要对超市收取通道费的行为进行限制,而是应将政策重点放在通道费的调整和规范上.     

French economic cycles: a wavelet analysis of French retrospective GNP series

Although 50 years of scientific work has been invested in building retrospective economic time series, their reliability is still debated, a good example being the two competing nineteenth century French GNP series. Instead of trying to bring up some new details to gauge their respective accuracy, we propose a different route, i.e. testing the intrinsic features of these two series, in absolute terms first, then by benchmarking them to a non-retrospective time series. In order to do that, we rely on new mathematical tools—wavelet spectrum analysis—developed in signal processing. This leads to a new approach, which separates the accuracy of a series between amplitude and time variations, and brings nuanced conclusions as to which of the two series tested is the best: indeed, since a trade-off is almost inescapable between the two criterions of accuracy, the statistical quality of one retrospective time series tends to linger either on one side (amplitude level) or the other (time variations). Our study also shows that variance distribution along the time axis is a good proxy for complex retrospective series accuracy.

The effects of filled waiting time and service provider control over the delay on evaluations of service

This article reports on an experiment that investigated the effects of a delay, perceived control over a delay, and the extent to which time was filled during the delay on various performance evaluations in a service encounter. It was determined that delays lower customers’ overall evaluations of service and of the tangible and reliability attributes of the service in particular. When delayed, performance evaluations were affected by whether the service provider was perceived to have control over the delay and whether the customer’s waiting time was filled. Overall performance evaluations and performance evaluations of tangibility, reliability, and responsiveness were highest when perceived service provider control was low and the waiting customer’s time was filled. These evaluations were lowest when perceived service provider control was high and waiting time was not filled. She received her Ph.D. from the University of British Columbia.     

Modelling trends and cycles in economic time series: historical perspective and future developments

This paper provides a retrospective on the modelling of trends and cycles in economic time series and considers where the research agenda currently stands and where future developments might lie. A brief survey of the early empirical research on trends and cycles is first provided before attention is focused on four papers published in 1961—our ‘annus mirabilis’ of trend and cycle modelling—which we argue have been ‘prime movers’ in various aspects of research in this area. The links from these papers to current research issues are then teased out before the likely future directions of research in both theoretical and applied aspects of the modelling of trends and cycles are considered.

Large shocks in U.S. macroeconomic time series: 1860�C1988

In this paper, we examine the large shocks due to major economic or financial events that affected U.S. macroeconomic time series on the period 1860–1988, using outlier methodology. We show that most of these shocks have a temporary effect, showing that the U.S. macroeconomic time series experienced only few large permanent shifts in the long term. Most of these large shocks can be explained by major recessions and World War II as well as by monetary policy for the interest rate data. We also find that some economic events seem to have the same effect (immediate, transitory or permanent) on a number of macroeconomic series. Finally, we show that most macroeconomic time series do not seem inconsistent with a stochastic trend once we adjusted the data for these shocks.     

超市通道费法律调整若干问题探讨——再论“零供”关系法律调整

超市通道费(进场费)是近年来社会议论的热点问题之一.<零售商供应商公平交易管理办法>颁布后,有关该问题的争论仍在延续.有人认为<办法>首次禁止了进场费.也有人认为<办法>的出台等于承认了进场费的合法性.本文从零售商的经营模式、赢利模式沿革出发,简要分析超市通道费是否妨碍市场公平竞争、是否导致物价上涨损害消费者利益等问题,并对通道费的分类及其法律调整进行探讨.     

城乡统筹发展任重道远

城乡差距在改革开放前本就存在,加之改革开放中城乡发展速度的明显差异,随着改革的深入,城乡差距凸显。要想消除城乡差距,必须城乡统筹发展。但城乡差距不是短期能够消除的,城乡统筹发展需要始终坚持。为了尽快消除城乡差距,使城乡统筹发展落到实处,必须规定一些硬性指标,同时,必须从制度层面抑制政府官员的城市偏好。     

城乡统筹发展任重道远

城乡差距在改革开放前本就存在,加之改革开放中城乡发展速度的明显差异,随着改革的深入,城乡差距凸显。要想消除城乡差距,必须城乡统筹发展。但城乡差距不是短期能够消除的,城乡统筹发展需要始终坚持。为了尽快消除城乡差距,使城乡统筹发展落到实处,必须规定一些硬性指标,同时,必须从制度层面抑制政府官员的城市偏好。     

三种战略管理理论的比较分析

竞争位势理论、资源基础理论及动力能力理论是当今最具影响力的三种企业战略管理理论，对企业发展的定位及竞争力的培育有重要的指导作用。本文通过对三种企业战略管理理论的回顾与比较分析，以求在深入理解三种战略管理理论的基础上，为我国企业发展提供一些启示。     

重庆在三大地域单元城镇化水平比较

从非农业人口比重、第三产业比重、基础设施和住宅建设水平、对外开放程度等方面比较，在四大直辖市中、长江沿岸经济带四大城市中、西部地区三大城市中，重庆的城镇化水平明显处于较低水平，且城镇化速度缓慢。重庆应进一步促进大中城市的健康发展，大力发展小城镇，从而健全和完善城镇体系。     

电子支付系统中的网络效应研究

在经济学的理论框架下，本文对“网络外部性”与“网络效应”进行了明确界定，并以电子支付系统为例，通过建立完全信息下的静态博弈模型，分析了网络效应对电子支付系统市场的影响。     

三种典型概率分布在商场销售分析中的应用

在市场经济条件下 ,商业企业的整个经营过程中 ,最难预料的是市场销售情况。本文运用概率统计的三种典型分布来分析研究商场销售情况这一随机现象 ,从而提出解决商场销售最佳决策。     

Examing the effects of positive social labeling,time, and request sizes on compliance in a multistage marketing survey context

Following the lead of Reingen and Bearden (1983), this study examines the effectiveness of positive social labeling, particularly in conjunction with other factors, as a means of influencing verbal and behavioral compliance in a multistage marketing survey context. Such results offer a systematic extension to the labeling literature and provide further insight into labeling’s role as a practicable method of shaping and stimulating respondent behavior.     

The effects of the service environment on affect and consumer perception of waiting time: An integrative review and research propositions

The management of buyers’ perceptions of waiting time by service businesses may be critical to customer satisfaction. Although reducing actual waiting time is important, what managers view as a short time to wait may feel too long to customers. Relevant literature from architecture, environmental psychology, psychology, physiology, operations management, sociology, and marketing is integrated to build a conceptual model of how the service environment may influence affect and, in turn, waiting time perception. Based on this model, propositions about how specific service environment elements (e.g., lighting, color, temperature) may influence affect and time perception are presented. Finally, a research agenda and implications for service facility design are proposed. She received her Ph.D. from Texas A&M University. Her areas of interest include the retail/service environment, internal marketing, and service quality. She has published articles in theJournal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Journal of Retailing, andInternational Journal of Research in Marketing, among others. She received her Ph.D. from the University of Texas at Arlington. She formerly was in sales and marketing planning at IBM, where she was involved in bringing numerous products to market.     

半环上向量组的基

本文引入半环上向量组的基与标准基的概念;得到了半环上有限个无关向量组成的向量组生成的子空间的标准基是存在的,且这组标准基与生成集有相同的基数.     

Unveiling the recovery time zone of tolerance: when time matters in service recovery

This article examines the link between recovery time and customer compensation expectations for service failures that cannot be immediately redressed. First, we show that the relationship between recovery time and compensation expectations is nonlinear. Initially, in a recovery time zone of tolerance, compensation expectations do not increase. Beyond this zone, the relationship follows an inverted U-shape, such that compensation expectations first increase but decrease in the long run. Second, our results show that long recovery times are accompanied by additional negative effects, including lower satisfaction with the recovery and negative word of mouth, so postponing service recovery represents a poor option. Third, relationship strength functions as a moderator. First-time customers expect higher compensation earlier; relational customers display a recovery time zone of tolerance but claim considerably higher compensations afterwards. Fourth, communication initiatives like the separate provision of status updates or an explanation may limit increases in compensation expectations over time. Still, their joint usage creates a “too-much-of-a-good-thing” effect, suggesting that if the usage of communication initiatives is taken too far it may lead to negative outcomes such as increasing compensation expectations.