Investing in mutual funds: the determinants of implied and actual net cash flows

Estimating the fund investors’ demand plays an important role in the mutual fund management. In this line, mutual fund demand can be measured as the total net cash flows experienced by the fund during a period. Due to a lack of the data for inflows and outflows in some countries and databases, many authors estimate the net cash flows using fund size and return information. This rough measure, although being a good approximation, implicitly assumes an error in its calculation. For a sample of 2985 US open-end funds, we find evidence that estimating this implied fund flows, the error generated is higher for smaller funds, funds with higher returns, and for those experiencing higher levels of inflows or outflows. This lack of precision leads to a distortion in the estimation of the effect of some determinants on the mutual fund demand, especially when longer periods are considered when constructing the net cash flows.     

Information acquisition and mutual funds

We study the formation of mutual funds by generalizing the standard competitive noisy rational expectations framework. In our model, informed agents set up mutual funds as a means of selling their private information to uninformed agents. We study the case of imperfect competition among fund managers, where uninformed agents invest simultaneously in multiple mutual funds. The size of the assets under management in the mutual fund industry is determined by endogenizing the agents' information acquisition decisions. Our model yields novel predictions on the informativeness of price, the optimal fees of mutual funds, and the equilibrium risk premium. In particular, we show that a sufficiently competitive mutual fund sector yields more informative prices and a lower equity risk premium.     

Selection of fidelity mutual funds

This study investigates the possibility of identifying those mutual funds in the Fidelity Family which might outperform the S&P 500 by using Jensen's alphas. An average of Jensen's alphas for a three-year period covering 1991–93 was computed and 1994 was used as a test case. A total of 152 Fidelity mutual funds were included in the study. Data were obtained fromAlexander Steele's Mutual Fund Expert Data Base [Steele Systems, Inc.] andHuntington Financial Optima Data Base [Huntington Associates Financial, Inc.]. It was found that it was possible to identify high performance funds. These funds had an alpha over 0.80. There were 21 funds in this group which produced an average total return of 4.44 percent, while S&P 500 had a total return of 1.32 percent in 1994.Any errors found in this paper are the sole responsibility of the author. The author would like to express sincere appreciation to Steele Systems, Inc. and Huntington Associates Financial, Inc. for providing the necessary data used in this study. Special appreciation also goes to Melissa Luo who so diligently and carefully performed all the computer work.     

Illiquidity, position limits, and optimal investment for mutual funds

We study the optimal trading strategy of mutual funds that face both position limits and differential illiquidity. We provide explicit characterization of the optimal trading strategy and conduct an extensive analytical and numerical analysis of the optimal trading strategy. We show that the optimal trading boundaries are increasing in both the lower and the upper position limits. We find that position limits can affect current trading strategy even when they are not currently binding and other seemingly intuitive trading strategies can be costly. We also examine the optimal choice of position limits.     

Expense ratios of North American mutual funds

Abstract The average expense ratio paid by Canadian mutual fund investors is 50% higher than that paid in the United States. This discrepancy is commonly thought to exist because Canadian funds do not take advantage of economies of scale and have less competition. A monopolistic competition framework is used to develop a model for the mutual fund industry. By allowing each fund to have different attributes, the model permits funds to charge different expense ratios in equilibrium and is found to strongly fit the North American mutual fund market. Empirical analysis indicates that these two common explanations and measurable fund attributes account for 24% of the discrepancy. JEL Classification: L11, L13 and G15
Les ratios de dépenses des fonds mutuels nord‐américains Le taux moyen de dépenses payées par les investisseurs canadiens dans les fonds mutuels sont de 50% plus élevées que celles qu'on paie aux Etats‐Unis. Cet écart est attribué d'habitude au fait que les fonds canadiens ne tirent pas profit des économies d'échelle et qu'il y a moins de concurrence au Canada. On utilise un modèle de concurrence monopolistique pour analyser l'industrie des fonds mutuels. En permettant à chaque fond d'avoir certains attributs, le modèle permet aux fonds de charger des taux de dépenses différents en équilibre. Il semble que cela corresponde aux caractéristiques du marché des fonds mutuels américains. Une analyse empirique montre que les deux explications usuelles et les attributs mesurables des fonds expliquent 24% de l'écart.     

On causality in the size-efficiency relationship: the effect of investor cash flows on the mutual fund industry

One of the perceived advantages in mutual fund management is the presence of economies of scale resulting from fund size. This article analyses the impact of mutual fund cash flows on the relation between size and performance, demonstrating that performance determines asymmetric variations in fund assets, particularly in mutual equity funds. Therefore, the more efficient funds generate broad enough cash flow entry that increases the relative size of the fund, leading to an implicit and positive relation between size and performance. So, if the average size over the period sample is used as a measure of size, such a relation would be biased. When the initial size is used, this bias is avoided and, in general, an insignificant relation is found between size and performance. These results are controlled by mutual fund costs using gross returns to estimate performance. The evidence is robust, and shows only weak evidence of a negative relation between size and performance for the balanced funds that is driven by a low positive relation between costs and size; precisely, the contrary that is expected from the hypothesis of the presence of economies of scale.     

Optimal gasoline hedging strategies using futures contracts and exchange-traded funds

This article employs a variety of econometric models (including OLS, VEC/VAR, DCC GARCH and a class of copula-based GARCH models) to estimate optimal hedge ratios for gasoline spot prices using gasoline exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and gasoline futures contracts. We then compare their performance using four different measures from the perspective of both their hedging objectives and trading position using four different measures: variance reduction measure, utility-based measure and two tail-based measures (value at risk and expected shortfall). The impact of the 2008 financial market crisis on hedging performance is also investigated. Our findings indicate that, in terms of variance reduction, the static models (OLS and VEC/VAR) are found to be the best hedging strategies. However, more sophisticated time-varying hedging strategies could outperform the static hedging models when the other measures are used. In addition, ETF hedging is a more effective hedging strategy than futures hedging during the high-volatility (crisis) period, but this is not always the case during the normal time (post-crisis) period.     

Inflation,taxation, and risk taking

The effects of taxation on the holding of ‘risky’ assets are explored when price level uncertainty means that the alternative asset, money, cannot be regarded as riskless and yieldless. Traditional conclusions are confirmed for the cases of a non-indexed and of a completely indexed tax.     

On the post-financial crisis performance of Islamic mutual funds: the case of Riyad funds

Using Riyad Capital mutual funds as a proxy for Saudi Arabian mutual funds, this paper empirically compares the risk-adjusted performance and investment style of Islamic mutual funds with that of conventional funds in the wake of the recent global financial crisis of 2009–2014. Absolute and relative risk-adjusted measures with single factor (Jensen) and multifactor (Carhart) models are applied. Our findings suggest that Islamic funds outperformed conventional funds domestically, given similar risk exposure, and produced comparable results under lower market risk globally. The results show that Islamic funds are a relatively big cap from the strong statistical significance registered on the global side as evidenced by the difference portfolio outcomes. In addition, the difference portfolios provide statistical evidence that Islamic funds are more value-oriented compared to conventional funds on both fronts. Furthermore, Islamic funds tend to slightly favour a contrarian trading investment strategy as suggested by statistically significant local portfolio value and global difference portfolios results. The results of home bias test show stronger ties by local Islamic funds to local market relative to the global proxy suggesting that domestic investors and managers favour Islamic funds over conventional funds, thus confirming a local preference for Shari’ah-compliant investments.     

Taxes,risk taking,and financial stability

After the global financial crisis, the use of taxes to enhance financial stability received new attention. This paper analyzes the corrective role of taxes in banking and compares two instruments, namely, an allowance for corporate equity (ACE), which mitigates the debt bias in corporate taxation, and a Pigovian tax on bank debt (bank levy). We emphasize financial stability gains driven by lower bank asset risk and develop a principal-agent model, in which risk taking depends on the bank's capital structure and, by extension, on the tax treatment of debt and equity. We find that (i) the ACE unambiguously reduces risk taking, (ii) bank levies reduce risk taking if they are independent of bank performance but may be counterproductive otherwise, and (iii) taxes are especially effective if regulatory capital requirements are constrained to low levels.     

Efficient risk sharing,non-marketable labor income and fixed-wage contracts

This paper seeks to explain fixed-wage labor contracts. The traditional rationale that fixed wages represent an implicit sale of ‘wage insurance’ by risk-neutral firms to risk-averse workers is rejected as being incompatible with the fact that firms are owned by risk-averse investors. Instead, it is shown that fixed-wage contracts might arise from the non-marketability of labor income. When human capital is not marketable, it becomes optimal to shift all the risk in production onto the firm, since trading in equity markets enables efficient allocation of the uncertainty. The fixed-wage contract shifts the risk to equity owners and in fact replicates the first-best equilibrium that would emerge if individuals were paid their realized marginal product and allowed to trade shares in human capital.     

On employment,wage and risk sharing in labor contracts

This note studies risk sharing in labor contracts when the price of the firm's product is uncertain. It demonstrates that if the firm adjusts employment at its own discretion, then the wage should not in general be constant, but should be constant only if the production function is of the Cobb-Douglas type.     

DCF模型中自由现金流量的合理估算

投资理财已成时尚的当今社会，人们更关注所投资的企业的价值。DCF模型作为评估企业价值的一种主流方法，已被广泛运用于实践。但现实中的问题是，DCF模型被滥用、泛用现象严重，特别是在估算企业价值的重要驱动因素-FCF时评估者的主观随意性太大，从而影响到价值结果的客观性。本文着重阐述了对FCF的分析、理解、合理选择和估算时应注意的重要问题。以期在评估实践中能起到一定的指导作用。     

Concealment of risk and regulation of bank risk taking

This paper analyzes the effectiveness of banking regulation when risk can be concealed from the regulator. Three banking regimes are considered: regulation with direct controls, incentives-based regulation, and laissez-faire banking. The relative performance of the three regimes depends on the effectiveness of monitoring. Regulation with direct controls is superior when monitoring effectiveness is low, while incentives-based regulation is superior when monitoring effectiveness is high. Laissez-faire banking is equivalent to incentives-based regulation if market analysts and the regulator have access to the same information. When monitoring effectiveness is low, a regulator with direct controls can better restrain banks' risk taking than can the market; this result applies when banks can conceal much of their risk from the regulator.     

DCF模型中自由现金流量的合理估算

投资理财已成时尚的当今社会,人们更关注所投资的企业的价值.DCF模型作为评估企业价值的一种主流方法,已被广泛运用于实践.但现实中的问题是,DCF模型被滥用、泛用现象严重,特别是在估算企业价值的重要驱动因素-FCF时评估者的主观随意性太大,从而影响到价值结果的客观性.本文着重阐述了对FCF的分析、理解、合理选择和估算时应注意的重要问题,以期在评估实践中能起到一定的指导作用.     

International capital flows,liquidity risk,and monetary policy

In recent years, there has been a large amount of lending coming from the public sector of many developing countries. At the same time, the financial sectors in many advanced countries have issued a large share of portfolio debt to other countries. What are the implications of these events for the global financial system and overall economic activity? Do they have an impact on the transmission channels of monetary policy across countries at different stages of economic development? We investigate these important issues using a micro-founded model of money and banking so that the effects of monetary policy across countries can be meaningfully studied. Notably, the increase in capital outflows to the advanced economy renders monetary policy in developing countries to be less effective, while the effects of monetary policy in advanced economies are more pronounced. Yet, our results indicate that it can indeed be optimal for lower income countries to lend to the advanced world. Importantly, we find that the optimal amount of lending to advanced countries critically depends on the degree of liquidity risk — if it is sufficiently high, then public sector lending to advanced economies is not warranted. Consequently, our results indicate that governments in developing countries should carefully consider how much capital they send abroad to foreign countries.     

Asymmetric causality between Australian inbound and outbound tourism flows

We employ the asymmetric version of the Granger causality test to assess how Australian inbound and outbound tourism flows across 49 markets (countries) are driven by the sign-dependent variations in departure series or vice versa. A multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (MGARCH) model is also estimated to study the time-varying co-volatility between inbound and outbound tourism growth rates. We find that rising co-volatility spillovers between inbound and outbound tourism are statistically significant for a number of markets. The six markets that are most susceptible to global shocks are China, Hong Kong, Papua New Guinea, Singapore, South Africa and the United Kingdom. China is by far the largest of these markets and, except for the United Kingdom, both arrivals and departures for each of these countries represent growing markets for Australia. We present recommendations for policymakers and destination management organizations (DMOs) to assist in developing customized strategies targeting resilient inbound markets in order to optimize tourism performance and reduce potential losses in times of crisis.     

我国共同基金对动态资产配置策略的应用初探

动态资产配置策略的应用包括购买并持有策略、恒定混合比率策略和固定比率投资组合保险策略这三种最基本的策略。实证研究发现，购买并持有策略的业绩最差；其次是固定比率投资组合保险策略；业绩最好的是恒定混合策略。当然，我们的研究没有考虑交易费用、市场流动性约束等问题；它只是一个特定时段上的理论结果，因而不一定具有普遍意义。     

Fiber investment and access under uncertainty: long-term contracts,risk premia,and access options

Journal of Regulatory Economics - Regulated access schemes shape incentives for both investment and entry in next-generation networks. We study in a general duopoly setting whether and how risk...