What is the irrigation potential for Africa? A combined biophysical and socioeconomic approach

Although irrigation in Africa has the potential to boost agricultural productivities by at least 50%, food production on the continent is almost entirely rainfed. The area equipped for irrigation, currently slightly more than 13 million hectares, makes up just 6% of the total cultivated area. More than 70% of Africa’s poor live in rural areas and mostly depend on agriculture for their livelihoods. As a result, agricultural development is key to ending poverty on the continent. Many development organizations have recently proposed to significantly increase investments in irrigation in the region. However, the potential for irrigation investments in Africa is highly dependent upon geographic, hydrologic, agronomic, and economic factors that need to be taken into account when assessing the long-term viability and sustainability of planned projects. This paper analyzes the large, dam-based and small-scale irrigation investment potential in Africa based on agronomic, hydrologic, and economic factors. We find significant profitable irrigation potential for both small-scale and large-scale systems. This type of regional analysis can guide distribution of investment funds across countries and should be a first step prior to in-depth country- and local-level assessment of irrigation potential, which will be important to agricultural and economic development in Africa.     

Sequestering carbon in soils of agro-ecosystems

Soils of the world’s agroecosystems (croplands, grazing lands, rangelands) are depleted of their soil organic carbon (SOC) pool by 25–75% depending on climate, soil type, and historic management. The magnitude of loss may be 10 to 50 tons C/ha. Soils with severe depletion of their SOC pool have low agronomic yield and low use efficiency of added input. Conversion to a restorative land use and adoption of recommended management practices, can enhance the SOC pool, improve soil quality, increase agronomic productivity, advance global food security, enhance soil resilience to adapt to extreme climatic events, and mitigate climate change by off-setting fossil fuel emissions. The technical potential of carbon (C) sequestration in soils of the agroecosystems is 1.2–3.1 billion tons C/yr. Improvement in soil quality, by increase in the SOC pool of 1 ton C/ha/yr in the root zone, can increase annual food production in developing countries by 24–32 million tons of food grains and 6–10 million tons of roots and tubers. The strategy is to create positive soil C and nutrient budgets through adoption of no-till farming with mulch, use of cover crops, integrated nutrient management including biofertilizers, water conservation, and harvesting, and improving soil structure and tilth.     

Fundamental transformations of trust and its drivers: A multi-stage approach of business-to-business relationships

This research tests a multistage model of trust in business-to-business (B2B) relationships. The model contains three forms of trust, each with unique drivers and consequences for buyer–supplier relationships. An exploratory qualitative study (N = 38) and four quantitative studies (N_Total = 616) validate the distinct stages (N1 = 140, N2 = 144, N3 = 152) and provide an overall test of the model (N4 = 180), using structural equation modeling techniques. The results support the proposed modeling of the stages and highlight a positive effect of reputation on calculative trust. Conflict resolution, communication, and sympathy positively affect cognitive trust. However, shared values do not significantly drive affective trust. Interdependence also exists among the three trust forms, both directly and indirectly. That is, calculative trust does not affect investments in relationship or confidential communication, but cognitive trust influences these constructs indirectly, through the mediation of affective trust. Affective trust also leads directly to greater investments in relationship and generates additional confidential communication.     

Potential impacts of increasing average yields and reducing maize yield variability in Africa

This study evaluates the potential impacts of investing in Drought Tolerant Maize (DTM) in 13 countries of East, South and West Africa. The analysis utilizes geo-referenced production data at the regional and household levels and employs a model that estimates both the conventional mean yield gains and the additional benefits from yield stability gains of DTM varieties as well as impacts on poverty. The results indicate that by 2016, adoption of DTM can generate between US$ 362 million and US$ 590 million in cumulative benefits to both producers and consumers. Yield variance reductions stand to generate considerable benefits, especially in high drought risk areas. These benefits translate into poverty reductions in the range of 0.01–4.29% by 2016. Significant benefits are also found among different types of households living in drought risk areas of Kenya, Ethiopia and Nigeria.     

Social media as a useful tool in food risk and benefit communication? A strategic orientation approach

Although considerable progress has been made in understanding the determinants of risk perception and in identifying the necessary components of effective food risk and benefit communication, this has not been matched with the development of efficient and appropriate communication tools. Little work has been done examining the implications of the explosion of new media and web technologies, which may offer potential for improving food risk and benefit communication. First, this study examines the views of stakeholders (n = 38) and experts (n = 33) in the food domain on the potential use of these emerging media for food risk/benefit communication. Based on in-depth interviews in six European countries (Belgium, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Spain and The Netherlands), strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (SWOT) of social media in food risk and benefit communication were identified. Second, a Strategic Orientation Round (SOR) was used to evaluate the relative importance of the SWOT components according to stakeholders (n = 10) and experts (n = 13). Results show that both stakeholders and experts confirm a future role of social media in food risk and benefit communication. Strengths as speed, accessibility and interaction make social media an interesting tool in crisis communication or issue awareness raising. Weaknesses as the lack of a filter, low trust, the risk of information overload and a communication preference for traditional media are acknowledged.     

Structural transformation or elite land capture? The growth of “emergent” farmers in Zambia

Over the last decade, Zambia has witnessed a rapid increase in the number of medium-scale “emergent farms” cultivating 5–20 ha of land. This study analyzes the factors underpinning this growth. We find that the growth of emergent farmers in Zambia is primarily attributable to land acquisition by salaried urbanites and by relatively privileged rural individuals. We found little evidence to support the hypothesis that the rise of emergent farmers primarily represents a process of successful accumulation by farmers who began farming with less than 5 ha of land, a situation faced by more than 95% of farming households. We argue that these outcomes are the result of Zambia’s land administration and agricultural spending policies. Rising concentration of landholdings in Zambia raises serious questions about the potential of current agricultural growth to act as a vehicle for broad based economic growth and poverty reduction.     

Impact of metal silos on households’ maize storage,storage losses and food security: An application of a propensity score matching

Maize is the most important food staple in Eastern and Southern Africa, with a highly seasonal production but relatively constant consumption over the year. Farmers have to store maize to bridge seasons, for food security and to protect against price fluctuations. However, the traditional storage methods do not protect grain well, resulting in large postharvest losses. Hermetically sealed metal silos kill storage pests by oxygen deprivation without pesticides. Popular in Central America, they are now being promoted in Africa, but their impact here has not yet been studied. This study used propensity score matching to evaluate the impact of metal silos on duration of maize storage, loss abatement, cost of storage, and household food security. Metal silo adopters (N = 116) were matched with non-adopting farmers from a representative sample of 1340 households covering the major maize-growing zones in Kenya. The major effect of the metal silos was an almost complete elimination of losses due to insect pests, saving farmers an average of 150–200 kg of grain, worth KSh9750 (US$130). Metal silo adopters also spent about KSh340 less on storage insecticides. Adopters were able to store their maize for 1.8–2.4 months longer, and to sell their surplus after five months at good prices, instead of having to sell right after the harvest. The period of inadequate food provision among adopters was reduced by more than one month. We conclude that metal silos are effective in reducing grain losses due to maize-storage insects, and that they have a large impact on the welfare and food security of farm households. The initial cost of metal silos is high (KSh20,000/1.8 ton) and therefore policies to increase access to credit, to reduce the cost of sheet metal, and to promote collective action can improve their uptake by smallholder farmers.     

Validating the usage of household food acquisition surveys to assess the consumption of ultra-processed foods: Evidence from Brazil

Our ability to research dietary changes over time and their effects on health is limited by challenges in accurately measuring food consumption. In countries where dietary surveys are scarce and rarely nationally representative, household budget surveys may serve as a useful alternative for assessing food consumption. The objective of this study was to evaluate how well household acquisition data reflects the actual intake of ultra-processed foods, using data from the 2008 to 2009 Brazilian Household Budget Survey. The food acquisition module was conducted for all households selected for the survey (n = 55,970) and a subsample corresponding to 25% of the households (n = 13,569) was randomly selected for the individual food intake module, which was conducted for all individuals aged 10 years or older (n = 34,003). Ultra-processed foods were defined as formulations made by the food industry mostly or entirely from substances extracted from foods or obtained with the further processing of constituents of foods or through chemical synthesis, with little if any whole food. Examples included candies, cookies, chips, sugar-sweetened beverages, and ready-to-eat dishes. Our results showed an important agreement between the estimates of ultra-processed food consumption obtained from household acquisition data and individual intake inside-the-home data, particularly for the relative (% of total energy) consumption of these foods. Our study thus indicates that household budget surveys are quite promising for tracking population-level changes in the consumption of ultra-processed foods. The trend toward increased consumption of food away from home in other low- and middle-income countries indicates that future household budget surveys should include the collection of these data.     

Farm production diversity is associated with greater household dietary diversity in Malawi: Findings from nationally representative data

Farm production diversity has the potential to influence the diversity of household diets, an important nutrition outcome associated with the nutrient adequacy of diets and the nutritional status of individuals. Yet, little empirical research has assessed the relationship between farm diversity and diet diversity or the plausible causal mechanisms that may operate between these two constructs. This research examines cross-sectional data from the Malawi Third Integrated Household Survey (IHS3), a nationally representative sample of farming households in Malawi, implemented from March 2010–March 2011 as part of the World Bank Living Standards Measurement Study – Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA). These data were used to determine the relationship between farm production diversity and household dietary diversity, and to identify determinants of this relationship. Two indicators of dietary diversity, a modified Household Dietary Diversity Score (HDDS), and the Food Consumption Score (FCS), were calculated along with three indicators of farm production diversity including the Simpson’s Index, a metric accounting for both species richness and evenness. In multiple regression analyses, adjusting standard errors for the complex survey design of the IHS3 and controlling for the effects of several covariates on household dietary diversity, farm production diversity was consistently positively associated with dietary diversity (P < 0.0001). The association of increased farm diversity as measured by a combined crop and livestock measure on dietary diversity was significantly greater in woman-headed households compared to those headed by men (HDDS: P = 0.008; FCS: P = 0.076). The positive association of farm diversity with dietary diversity was also greater in wealthier households (P < 0.05). Consumption of legumes, vegetables and fruits was especially strongly associated with greater farm diversity. More diverse production systems may contribute to more diverse household diets. However, this relationship is complex; it may be influenced by gender, wealth, control of household decisions, the relative market-orientation of a household’s agricultural production, and the specific nature of farm diversity.     

Pharmaceutical followers

We estimate a model of drug demand and supply that incorporates insurance, advertising, and competition between branded and generic drugs within and across therapeutic classes. We use data on antiulcer drugs from 1991 to 2010. Our simulations show that generics and “me-too” drugs each increased consumer welfare more than $100 million in 2010, holding insurance premiums constant. However, insurance payments in 2010 fell by nearly $1 billion due to generics and rose by over $7 billion due to me-too antiulcer drugs.     

Soft drink prices,sales, body mass index and diabetes: Evidence from a panel of low-, middle- and high-income countries

We take advantage of four different cross-country datasets containing data on 78 countries for the period 1999–2014, in order to assess the relationship of carbonated soft drinks’ sales, as well as their prices, with body mass index (BMI), overweight, obesity and diabetes. Using an ecological study design and multivariate regression longitudinal estimation approaches, we find that carbonated soft drink sales were significantly positively related to BMI, overweight and obesity – but only in the low and lower-middle income countries. This finding was robust to a number of sensitivity and falsification checks. In this sub-sample, an increase in per capita soft drink sales by 1 litre per year was related to an increase of BMI by about 0.009 kg/m² (p < 0.1).. This is a small effect, implying that halving annual consumption per capita in this group of countries would result in a drop of BMI by only about 0.03 kg/m². Although soft drink prices were negatively related to weight-related outcomes in the sample of higher middle income and high income countries, this finding was not robust to falsification checks. The results thus suggest that sales restrictions to steer consumers away from soft drinks could indeed have a beneficial health effects in poorer countries, although the effect magnitude appears to be very small. However, given potential limitations of using ecological research design, results from individual level studies would be required to further ascertain the role of soft drink sales and prices in obesity and diabetes.     

Evaluating Wisconsin dairy producer compliance and potential eligibility for international markets under existing European Union and United States Grade “A” bulk tank somatic cell count compliance criteria

A proposal to lower the bulk tank Somatic Cell Count (SCC) maximum for United States of America (US) Grade “A” milk producers was not adopted by the National Conference on Interstate Milk Shipments in 2011 or 2013. The proposal would have made the US Grade “A” limit consistent with many other international standards, including that of the European Union (EU). Some US states, however, have proactively adopted their own SCC limit to mirror the EU limit. The purpose of this study was to analyze the impacts on Wisconsin dairy producers if Wisconsin should adopt the current EU limit and compliance criterion. Analyses were done on SCC results for Wisconsin Grade “A” and Grade “B” dairy producers reported each month to the Wisconsin Department of Agriculture, Trade and Consumer Protection (WDATCP) during January 1, 2009–December 31, 2012. Results were evaluated against the current US Grade “A” and EU compliance criteria for SCC and the percentage of (producer × month) combinations in compliance was determined. If the current EU SCC compliance criterion was in place, 86.7–94.3 and 64.3–77.3% of Wisconsin Grade “A” and “Grade “B” (producer × month) combinations, respectively, would have been in compliance for the years 2009–2012. Compliance of Wisconsin Grade “A” and Grade “B” producers with the existing US SCC compliance criterion during the same period was 99.3–99.7% and 87.9–93.9% (producer × month combinations) respectively. An analysis of a subset of Wisconsin Grade “A” producers indicated that smaller-volume producers were less likely than larger-volume producers to meet the EU criterion.     

Effective product-service systems: A value-based framework

Manufacturers increasingly engage in servitization and as a result offer services in combination with their products (i.e., product-service systems, PSS). However, while servitization in theory seems to be a promising strategy, in practice, the bundling of services with product offerings does not always result in the expected performance outcomes. In this paper, we propose a framework that helps manufacturers to overcome this servitization paradox. The underlying premise of our framework is the need to give primacy to the value customers derive from PSS. The framework builds on the idea that products and services differ with regard to the value that is created by the tangible elements and the interaction moments between manufacturers and customers; this is presented in a 2 × 2 matrix. Subsequently, this paper provides guidelines for identifying PSS that are effective in terms of value creation. First, the product and service elements of the PSS should have sufficient autonomous value to be sold separately on the market. Secondly, they should come from different quadrants of the 2 × 2 matrix. Lastly, the combination of product and service elements should create synergy. Through a survey among product and service developers and an experimental auction among customers we validate our ideas.     

Global developments in the competition for land from biofuels

The potential global demand for biofuels and the implications of this for land use and its interaction with food agriculture is reviewed. It is expected that biofuels will form an important element of global transport energy mix (in the order of 20–30% of total requirement) over the next 40 years and beyond. Over this time, there will be a transition from so called first generation biofuels, based on commodity agricultural crops with food/feed uses, to advanced biofuels, sometimes called second and third generation biofuels, based primarily upon lignocellulosic feedstocks. It remains unclear whether these advanced biofuels, based on lignocellulosic materials, will entirely replace first generation or if second generation will be supplemental to first generation. This expansion in biofuels will be coupled to a substantial increase in alternative fuels (electricity, hydrogen, biogas and natural gas) and modal shifts. Biofuel production from agricultural commodity crops that exhibit strong sustainability criteria will remain important (e.g. sugarcane) with supportive and competitive aspects for food security.Land requirement projections estimated for a range of potential biofuel development trajectories range widely and are inherently uncertain. Under the most active scenario that delivers substantive greenhouse gas reductions in transport by 2050 (relative to 2005 levels), approximately 100 Mha of additional land is projected. In the ‘business-as-usual’ scenario, in which transport energy demand rises by 80% by 2050 from present levels, a land use requirement of 650 Mha is projected.Significant potential exists for producing biofuels that possess high productivity and sustainability profiles through continued research, development and demonstration. Policy and regulation at a global level, that focuses biofuel development on these goals in ways that are synergistic with food agriculture, will simultaneously help to decarbonise transport and maintain a diverse and financially robust agricultural (and forestry) sector.     

Does smallness affect the liberalisation of telecommunications? The case of Cyprus

A review of the literature on small economies and on telecommunications policy suggests that policy makers disregard the possible effects of the size of the economy on liberalisation outcomes. This paper builds on the literature on small economies to classify economy size according to economic, demographic, and geographical measures in order to empirically examine whether small size affects the effective culmination of liberalisation of telecommunications. A cluster of small economies that have a maximum population of 9.2 million (Guinea), GDP of US $86.17 billion (Singapore), and arable area of 19.3 thousand km² (Central African Republic) are the main focus of analysis. In particular, the paper capitalises on an in-depth analysis of the liberalisation of telecommunications in Cyprus and an econometric analysis of the respective European experience. The country-specific outcomes of liberalisation in Cyprus are consistent with the general tendency in small European economies and jointly provide strong evidence that smallness affects the success of liberalisation. The paper concludes with an array of policy suggestions for small economies.     

The consumer loss of the minimum duration for mobile telephone calls

This article estimates price elasticities of demand for the duration of mobile telephone calls for Portugal, as well as the monetary loss per consumer of the existence of a minimum duration of calls. The demand for the duration of calls is estimated using a Tobit model for panel data with individual random effects. The elasticity of demand is found to be small and to vary across firms. At current prices, the average duration of calls ranges between 101 and 109 s, while the estimated average length of calls without minimum duration ranges between 63 and 66 s. Hence, the existence of a minimum duration for calls results in a monetary loss of 35–40% of the average invoice.     

Evolving beef export market access requirements for age and source verification

We analyze the economic impacts of changes in age and source verification requirements and associated adjustments in international trade of US beef using an equilibrium displacement model. Because the United States lags behind many countries in adopting animal traceability systems, the United States risks losing export market access. The loss of an export market the size of South Korea’s would cause a decline of US meat industry producer surplus of $1751 million over 10 years or 0.23% of its10-year cumulative discounted present value. Additionally, we find that only small increases in US beef exports would be necessary to offset direct costs associated with adoption of age and source verification.     

Expanding mobile wireless capacity: The challenges presented by technology and economics

As demand for mobile broadband services continues to explode, mobile wireless networks must expand greatly their capacities. This paper describes and quantifies the economic and technical challenges associated with deepening wireless networks to meet this growing demand. Methods of capacity expansion divide into three general categories: the deployment of more radio spectrum; more intensive geographic reuse of spectrum; and increasing the throughput capacity of each MHz of spectrum within a given geographic area. The paper describes these several basic methods to deepen mobile wireless capacity. It goes on to measure the contribution of each of these methods to historical capacity growth within U.S. networks. The paper then describes the capabilities of 4G LTE wireless technology, and further innovations off of it, to further improve network capacity. These capacity expansion capabilities of LTE-Advanced along with traditional spectrum reuse are quantified and compared to forecasts of future demand to evaluate the ability of U.S. networks to match future demand. Without significantly increasing current spectrum allocations by 560 MHz over the 2014–2022 period, the presented model suggests that U.S. wireless capacity expansion will be inadequate to accommodate expected demand growth. This conclusion is in contrast to claims that the U.S. faces no spectrum shortage.     

Indigenous Shawi communities and national food security support: Right direction,but not enough

Food insecurity is a major challenge facing Peru’s Indigenous Shawi communities, who receive food support through national level programs. There is limited research, however, on how national food and social programming support is perceived, received and used among Indigenous communities. We address this research gap by characterizing the preferred diet and coping mechanisms among Shawi Indigenous households, and investigating community perspectives on the national food program and national social supports. We used a mixed methods approach, including a quantitative survey among eleven Shawi communities in the Peruvian Amazon (n = 177 households), and semi-structured interviews with key informants (n = 24). We found that national food programs in Peru rarely provide foods that are desired and preferred among the Shawi, particularly familiar and locally-sourced protein sources such as bushmeat and fish. Food and social programming requirements do not integrate consideration of the remoteness of many vulnerable households, and are considered culturally or linguistically inaccessible to many families. In some cases, foods supplied by national programs are not consumed as they are perceived as unfamiliar. Key opportunities to improve food and social programing include: monitoring and revising eligibility requirements for remote and highly vulnerable households; increasing provision of locally-preferred protein food and familiar food types; avoiding use of written Spanish as a sole source of information to support programming; extending food provision outside of school months; developing contingency plans during education sector strikes; considering hiring of staff with working knowledge of local languages for community distributions; using visual or oral communication rather than written communication to increase accessibility of programs; increasing knowledge on the use and nutritional value of external food; and considering exemptions to school and health eligibility requirements during the rainy season and during sector strikes. Nationally-developed programming that does not consider Indigenous and cultural contexts risks inefficiency, limited improvement of health outcomes, and the potential to increase inequities in Indigenous health.