城镇化中能源消费与二氧化碳排放研究——基于省级面板数据的实证检验

文章扩展了STIRPAT模型,使用1995-2011年中国30个省级面板数据,研究中国城镇化进程在全国以及区域层面上对能源消耗的需求变化与二氧化碳排放的影响效应。研究结果表明:在全国层面上,城镇化增加了对能源消费的刚性需求且对二氧化碳排放具有显著的正向影响。同时,城镇化对二氧化碳排放量影响有明显的区域差异:在东部地区,城镇化水平的提高增加了二氧化碳排放量,但在中西部地区,城镇化水平的提高减少了二氧化碳排放。基于以上结论,文章探讨了未来中国城镇发展的相关对策:适当控制土地城镇化发展速度,积极探索低碳城镇化发展模式,培养市民良好的低碳生活方式,优化与调整地区产业结构与能源消费结构。     

中国碳强度分布的地区差异与收敛性——基于1995-2009年省际数据的实证研究

通过利用IPCC的方法,估算1995-2009年中国省际二氧化碳排放量,并运用泰尔指数及其分解方法,对我国碳强度分布的地区差异进行测度并按照东、中、西、东北四大区域进行了结构分解;同时借鉴经济增长理论中的收敛性检验方法,对我国碳强度的区域差异进行了收敛性检验。研究发现:(1)从总体上看,中国碳强度的分布存在明显的区域差异,而且差异主要是来自于四大区域内部,其中中部地区对碳强度总体差异的影响最大,西部地区对碳强度总体差异的影响正在逐步加大。(2)运用面板数据和横截面数据的估计结果均显示1995-2009年中国碳强度的地区分布不存在绝对β收敛和条件β收敛,此外也无明显的σ收敛特征。以上结论表明中国碳强度水平不会自动降低到"稳态",政府对碳减排的政策干预将是必不可少的。     

On the potential economic costs of cutting carbon dioxide emissions in Portugal

The objective of this paper is to estimate the impact of reducing carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion activities on economic activity in Portugal. We find that energy consumption has a significant impact on macroeconomic activity. In fact, a 1 ton of oil equivalent permanent reduction in aggregate energy consumption reduces output in the long term by €6,340. More importantly, and since carbon dioxide emissions are linearly related to the amounts of fuel consumed, our results allow us to estimate the costs of reductions in carbon dioxide emissions. We estimate that a uniform standard for reducing carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion activities would lead to a marginal abatement cost of €95.74 per ton of carbon dioxide. This is a first rough estimate of the potential economic costs of policies designed to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. At this level one may conclude that uniform, across the board reductions in carbon emissions would have a clear negative effect on economic activity. Hence, at the aggregate level there is clear evidence for a trade-off between economic performance and a reduction in carbon emissions. This opens the door to the investigation of the scope for policy to minimize the costs of environmental policy and regulation.     

碳中和目标导向的省域消费端碳排放减排模式研究——基于多区域投入产出模型

文章以多区域投入产出模型为基础,研究了中国省级和行业层面基于消费端的碳排放及碳转移,并解析了碳中和导向下的碳减排模式。结果表明:23个省份本地消费碳排放大于外地输入碳排放;资本形成是碳排放最大贡献者;能源生产和供应业以及非金属和金属业是碳转移的主要行业,能源生产和供应业输出碳排放量最大的内蒙古主要输出给北方地区,非金属和金属业输出碳排放量最大的河北主要输出给江苏等省份;中国30个省份可以根据消费端碳排放的来源特征和净碳转移方向分为四类。在碳中和目标导向下,本研究有助于倒逼各省份绿色发展和绿色低碳产品的输出,绿色低碳也将是未来贸易市场趋向。     

A multi-factor efficiency perspective to the relationships among world GDP, energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions

Most of the research articles on climate change study the relationships between economic growth, and, carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission or energy consumption separately for analyzing the impacts of economic growth and energy consumption on global carbon dioxide emissions. In this paper, the linkages among CO₂ emissions, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and energy consumption are studied simultaneously using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). The time period considered for the study is 1980-2001. The results show that world in the year 1980 was the most efficient in achieving the highest economic growth, emitting least carbon dioxide for a given level of energy consumption for that year. The efficiency index reduced in the next 8 years, fluctuated with a declining trend for the next 7 years, and began to rise from 1996 till 2001. The model is further extended in this paper for technology forecasting to identify the links between energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions for achieving projected levels of GDP under two different assumptions on efficiency index. It has been identified using the forecasting model that, when the carbon dioxide emissions are restricted to the levels emitted in the year 1990 and when the efficiency index for the year 2025 is assumed to be at the level registered for the year 1980 (highest value), the non-fossil energy consumption needed to meet the GDP level projected for 2025 will be much smaller (35.46 quadrillion Btu for the reference GDP) than the values actually recorded in the year 1990 (44.59). However, the non-fossil energy consumption in 2025 (118.8) increases much more than the actual recorded in the year 1990 when the efficiency index in 2025 is assumed to be at the level registered for the year 1990.     

Carbon dioxide emissions and interregional economic convergence in China

This paper examines the effect of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions on economic convergence among Chinese provinces from 1998 to 2012 using the framework of environmental total factor productivity (ETFP). We modify the standard β-convergence model to incorporate undesirable outputs such as CO₂ emissions. The bootstrap method is subsequently applied to estimate the values of ETFP, and the system generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator is employed to test for convergence. The results indicate that there is imperfect interregional economic convergence in China, which is supported by gross domestic product (GDP) and CO₂ emissions. However, the convergence process is inefficient due to the ‘catching up’ convergence trend of per capita CO₂ emissions in China. This paper also finds that the variation in the capital stock and labour does not support the hypothesis that all of the provinces can converge to a steady state.     

Effects of Carbon Dioxide Control Policy in China by Multi-Regional CGE Model

In recent years, China has faced tremendous pressure to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. At the COP 15 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen in 2009, China committed itself to achieve a 40%–45% per GDP carbon dioxide emission reduction in the near future. To reach this goal, China is willing to adopt a series of new policies, including attempts to introduce a carbon tax, and to start an energy-resource-tax pilot program in the western provinces. For this research, we constructed a Multi-Regional Computable General Equilibrium model. Then we used six scenarios to evaluate the economic effects and effectiveness of energy-resource tax policy for control of carbon dioxide emissions for different regions of China. The main result of this research is the finding that an ad valorem energy resource tax can reduce carbon dioxide emissions in China. At the same time, fiscal policy might engender different effects in different regions of China. Additionally, this policy is more efficient for controlling petroleum and natural gas resources than it is for coal resources.     

Quantification of the environmental impacts of road conditions in Brazil

This study evaluates the impacts of Brazilian highway conditions on fuel consumption and, consequently, on carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. For the purpose of this study, highway conditions refer to the level of highway maintenance: the incidence of large potholes, large surface cracks, uneven sections, and debris. Primary computer collected data related to the fuel consumption of three types of trucks were analyzed. The data were derived from 88 trips taken over six routes, each route representative of one of two highway conditions: better or worse. Study results are initially presented for each type of truck being monitored. The results are then aggregated to approximate the entire Brazilian highway network. In all cases, results confirmed environmental benefits resulting from travel over the better routes. There was found to be an increase in energy efficiency from traveling better roads, which resulted in lower fuel consumption and lower CO₂ emissions. Statistical analysis of the results suggests that, in general, fuel consumption data were significant at *P < 0.05, rejecting the null hypothesis that average fuel consumption from traveling the better routes is statistically equal to average fuel consumption from traveling the worse routes. Improved Brazilian road conditions would generate economic benefits, reduce dependency on and consumption of fossil fuels (due to the increase in energy efficiency), and reduce CO₂ emissions. These findings may have additional relevancy if Brazil needs to reduce carbon dioxide emissions to reach future Kyoto Protocol's emissions targets, which should take effect in January 2013.     

Convergence in Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions Among G7 Countries: A TAR Panel Unit Root Approach

The subject of this paper is the examination the convergence of per capita carbon dioxide emissions of the G7 countries during the 1960–2005 period in a nonlinear panel analysis framework. In this approach, first the linearity of the series was tested, and when the linearity was rejected, the threshold autoregressive (TAR) panel unit root test, which splits the data into two regimes, was employed to examine the stationarity properties of the series. Because the null of linearity was rejected in the first step, we tested the stationarity of the series using the TAR panel unit root test. In the TAR panel unit root test, we found that the United Kingdom was the transition country whose per capita carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions determined the switch from one regime to the other. The results showed that convergence existed in the first regime and divergence, in the second. When we tested whether absolute or conditional convergence existed, we found that the per capita CO₂ emissions were conditionally converging in the first regime.     

Club convergence and clustering of U.S. energy-related CO2 emissions

This study examines the convergence of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions among a panel of U.S. states between the period 1960–2010. This examination is carried out by means of a two-stage procedure. In the first stage, we conduct an endogenous grouping, regression-based convergence test. Unlike previous studies, this methodology endogenously identifies groups of states with emissions that are converging to a similar steady state growth path over time. In the second stage, we evaluate the conditional rate of convergence for the whole sample and for each club using panel data, fixed effects models that control for unobserved, time-invariant heterogeneous effects. More specifically, we examine the rates of convergence conditional on certain structural and non-structural characteristics of the state economy. Results from stage one and stage two suggest that one group of twenty-six states is converging to a unique steady-state equilibrium, and otherwise, the remaining states are diverging. Finally, we discuss different policy approaches to mitigating carbon dioxide emissions based on the club convergence hypothesis.     

Scenario development in China's electricity sector

The continuing growth of China's electricity sector will affect global environmental and economic sustainability due to its impacts on greenhouse gas emissions and global resource depletion. In 2005, the generation of electricity in China resulted in the emissions of 2290 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide (approximately 53% of the nation's total) and required 779 million metric tonnes of coal (approximately 50% of China's total coal consumption). These figures are expected to increase with China's economic growth. In order to gauge the range in which fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions could grow a scenario-based conceptual model has been developed by the authors (published in (vol.) of this journal). The application and analysis of this shows that under a business as usual (BAU) scenario, electricity generation could contribute upwards of 56% of China's energy related greenhouse gas emissions by 2020. Meanwhile, consumption of coal will also increase, growing to nearly 60% of total national demand by 2020. However, variations in a number of key drivers could produce significant deviation from the BAU scenario. With accelerated economic output, even with greater technological advances and greater potential to bring natural gas on stream, carbon dioxide emissions would rise 10% above the BAU. Alternatively, in a scenario where China's economy grows at a tempered pace, less investment would be available for advanced technologies, developing natural gas infrastructure, or nuclear energy. In this scenario, reduced economic growth and electricity demand would thereby be countered by reduced efficiency and a higher contribution of coal.     

Re-Examining the Empirical Evidence for Stochastic Convergence of Two Air Pollutants with a Pair-Wise Approach

This paper examines the hypothesis of stochastic convergence for two air pollutants emissions (carbon dioxide [CO₂] and sulfur dioxide [SO₂]). The value-added of this paper lies in the use of a recent, alternative econometric method, a pair-wise approach that considers all the possible pairs of log per-capita pollutant emission gaps across all the countries in the sample. In this method, all emissions differences must be stationary around a constant mean. Empirical results support different conclusions on stochastic convergence in per capita CO₂ and SO₂ emissions depending on the choice of the unit root test. The use of specific critical values from the ADF-KPSS joint test overcomes these initial conflicting results and leads to small percentages of stationary pairs around a constant mean; which invalidate the hypothesis of stochastic convergence for per capita emissions of CO₂ and SO₂, even over the OECD sub-dataset.     

京津冀能源消费、碳排放与经济增长

运用《2006年IPCC国家温室气体清单指南》中的碳排放核算方法[1],测算2000—2011年京津冀二氧化碳排放量、排放强度、人均排放量和单位面积排放量,从变动趋势、消费结构、相关性和空间分布四个角度分析京津冀的能源消费、碳排放与经济增长。结果表明:京津冀能源消费量和碳排放量在12年间均呈增长趋势;碳排放强度均呈下降趋势;津冀的高排放主要是由以煤炭消费为主的能源结构和以高耗能工业为主的产业结构引起的。碳排放量与能源消费量和经济增长密切相关。在京津冀协同发展背景下,应大力调整产业结构,优化能源结构,建立碳汇合作机制。     

The environmental Kuznets curve after 25 years

The environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) has been the dominant approach among economists to modeling aggregate pollution emissions and ambient concentrations over the last quarter century. Despite this, the EKC was criticized almost from the start and decomposition approaches have been more popular in other disciplines working on global climate change. More recently, convergence approaches to modeling emissions have become popular. This paper reviews the history of the EKC and alternative approaches. Applying an approach that synthesizes the EKC and convergence approaches, I show that convergence is important for explaining both pollution emissions and concentrations. On the other hand, economic growth has a strong positive effect on carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide, and industrial greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but weaker effects on non-industrial GHG emissions and concentrations of particulates. Negative time effects are important for sulfur and industrial and non-industrial GHG emissions. Even for particulate concentrations, economic growth only reduces pollution at very high income levels. Future research should focus on developing and testing alternative theoretical models and investigating the non-growth drivers of pollution reduction.     

Testing the tourism-induced EKC hypothesis: The case of Singapore

This study investigates the relationship between tourism development and carbon emissions in Singapore through testing Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis, which is a major tourist destination state and whose economy is linked with diverse energy resources, high-level urbanization, and rapid industrialization. Results reveal that tourism development and carbon emissions are in long-term equilibrium relationship; carbon dioxide emission converges to its long-term equilibrium level by 76.0% speed of adjustment through the channels of tourism, energy consumption, and output growth. Tourist arrivals have a negatively significant effects on carbon dioxide emission levels both in the long-term and the short-term periods. Finally, results of the Granger causality tests reveal that there is unidirectional causality that runs from tourism development to carbon emission growth in the long-term of the economy of Singapore. Therefore, the tourism-induced EKC hypothesis is confirmed in the case of Singapore.     

Swedish CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> Emissions 1993–2006: An Application of Decomposition Analysis and Some Methodological Insights

This study undertakes a decomposition analysis to identify the drivers of carbon dioxide emissions change in the Swedish business and industry sectors 1993–2006. On aggregate, energy intensity decreased, but this does not seem to have been very important for reducing emissions. Rather, fuel substitution seems to have been more important, which is in line with findings from the decomposition literature on Sweden. However, at the sectoral level, we find no clear pattern of the effect of fuel substitution and energy intensity on emissions. We also draw some methodological conclusions: decomposition analysis should be undertaken at the most disaggregate level possible; assessing decomposition results by summing results over several time periods leads to biased results; and decomposition analysis should not be based only on some initial and final years of a long time period. Furthermore, we address the problem of double counting energy flows in decomposition analysis of aggregate effects when the energy sector is included, and point out potential problems related to output measured in monetary terms.     

人工智能技术对碳排放的影响

随着新一轮科技革命和产业变革的深入推进,人工智能技术在应对气候变化方面扮演重要角色,并赋能“碳达峰、碳中和”目标的实现。利用2006—2019年中国内地省级面板数据,考察人工智能技术对碳排放的影响。研究发现：人工智能技术与碳排放之间呈倒U型关系,即当人工智能技术达到一定阈值后,其碳减排效应逐渐凸显;人工智能技术主要通过提高能源利用效率实现碳减排;在东部和西部地区,人工智能技术与碳排放之间存在显著倒U型关系,而在中部地区,人工智能技术对碳排放发挥持续促进作用。因此,在推进“双碳”目标过程中,需要以绿色低碳发展为目标开发人工智能技术,正确引导人工智能在碳减排领域的研发应用,针对不同区域实际制定差异化发展政策。     

Liability Structure and Carbon Emissions Abatement: Evidence from Chinese Manufacturing Enterprises

As it is known that the linkage between financial performance and environmental performance of enterprises has not obtained conclusive results, and the role of liability and its structure have not been considered yet. In view of these gaps, this paper employed the data of Chinese manufacturing firms from 2008 to 2011, to examine the impact of liability structure on enterprises’ carbon emissions abatement. The results manifest that both the relative and absolute proportions of long-term liabilities have a significant negative effect on the level value and growth rate of enterprise carbon emissions in China. Heterogeneity analysis demonstrates that enterprises in high energy consumption group have higher total carbon emissions and growth rate compared with enterprises in low and middle energy consumption groups. For enterprises of different ownership, the level of private-owned enterprises is higher and the growth rate is lower. The findings imply that policy makers should not adopt a one-size-fits-all policies to reduce firm carbon emissions.

     

碳税对我国的影响及其政策响应

二氧化碳(CO2)是引起全球气候变化的最重要的温室气体(GHG)之一。温室气体的减排是当前国际社会普遍关注的热点环境问题。碳税常常被认为是成本有效的碳减排政策工具,目前已有一些国家征收碳税或能源税。文章介绍了碳税的理论基础及其在一些国家的征收实践,总结和分析了国内外一些学者关于实施碳税对温室气体减排、对经济和能源系统的影响的研究结果,并在此基础上讨论了我国对碳税制度的政策响应和对策。     

中国农地利用碳排放及影响因素研究:1990—2016年

基于化肥、灌溉、农药、农膜等6方面碳源测算了1990—2016年我国农地利用碳排放总量、省级农地利用碳排放量以及相关驱动影响因素。研究结果显示:(1)我国农地利用碳排放量处于增长状态,年均增长率为3.13%,农业碳排放强度逐年下降,年均增长率为-1.94%。(2)各省份农地利用碳排放与农业产值相关,同时受制于省级碳排放强度的作用。(3)经过因素分解发现,农业就业占比和碳排放强度对碳排放起抑制作用,但在总量上还低于农业人均GDP和人口规模对碳排放的促进作用,因此我国农地利用碳排放呈现增长态势。