EQUILIBRIA EXISTENCE AND CHARACTERIZATION IN AUCTIONS: ACHIEVEMENTS AND OPEN QUESTIONS

Abstract Establishing existence and characterizing equilibria are both important achievements in the study of auctions. However, we recognize that equilibria existence results form the basis for well accepted characterizations. In this survey, we review the landmark results and highlight open questions regarding equilibria existence and characterizations in auctions. In addition, we review the standard assumptions underlying these results, and discuss the suitability of the Nash equilibrium solution concept. We focus our review on single‐object auctions, but also review results in multi‐unit, divisible, combinatorial and double auctions.     

Do credit market imperfections justify a central bank׳s response to asset price fluctuations?

Do credit market imperfections justify a central bank׳s response to asset price fluctuations? This study addresses this question from the perspective of equilibrium determinacy. In the model we use, prices are sticky and the working capital of firms is subject to asset values because of a lack of commitment. If credit market imperfections exist to a small degree, the Taylor principle is a necessary and sufficient condition for equilibrium determinacy, and monetary policy response to asset price fluctuations is good from the perspective of equilibrium determinacy. However, if credit market imperfections exist to a large degree such that the collateral constraint is binding, then the Taylor principle no longer guarantees equilibrium determinacy, and monetary policy response to asset price fluctuations becomes a source of equilibrium indeterminacy. We find that the existence of credit market imperfections makes it unsuitable to initiate a monetary policy response to deal with asset price fluctuations. We also find that reductions in credit market imperfections can enlarge the indeterminacy region of the model parameters.     

证券公司电子商务的障碍研究

文章主要分析了证券电子商务的概念、国内外证券电子商务发展现状及模式以及中国证券电子商务的发展障碍,并对我国证券电子商务的发展前景做了初步探讨。     

Financial crises and economic growth

This paper constructs a simple yet robust model of financial crises and economic growth where financial markets affect real economic activity. Financial markets increase real output by facilitating investment through the borrowing/lending of capital. However, the borrowing of capital is risky due to randomness in the firms’ production. Financial crises occur when output and liquid capital are insufficient to meet required loan payments and systemic defaults occur. In this model, a financial crisis caused by systemic defaults can shift the economy from an equilibrium with positive borrowing/lending to an equilibrium with no borrowing/lending. In this no-lending equilibrium, neither traditional fiscal or monetary policy tools are effective in increasing output. Fiscal and monetary policy can only increase the likelihood of the equilibrium evolving to a borrowing/lending equilibrium.     

我国信用信息共享现状及征信模式研究

本文介绍了我国信用信息共享发展现状,分析了三种典型的信用信息共享模式。根据我国实际情况,构建一种“现阶段以公共征信模式为主导,不断完善我国信用信息共享外部环境建设,积极发展私营征信模式,建立一种‘公共与私营相结合,全国统一’的信用信息共享模式”,为促进我国社会信用体系健康发展起到积极的推动作用。     

上市公司的信用行为及其市场反应

以1993—2012年在上海证券交易所和深圳证券交易所主板市场交易的所有非金融企业为样本,对公司的信用行为及其市场反应进行实证研究。结果发现:公司信用行为深受宏观经济政策的影响;商业信用的供给和需求与短期银行信用、长期银行信用显著负相关;商业信用需求与商业信用供给显著正相关;公司价值与商业信用供给显著正相关,与商业信用需求显著负相关,与短期银行信用需求和长期银行信用需求显著负相关;此外,宏观经济周期、企业的经济性质、公司规模、资本结构、成长性等因素对公司的信用行为和公司价值具有显著影响。     

家庭部门信贷与经济增长关系研究——基于对转型国家的实证分析

本文利用28个转型国家1999～2009年的数据,对企业和家庭信贷结构与经济增长之间的关系进行实证检验,并进一步对家庭信贷影响经济增长的机制进行分析。研究表明,与企业信贷对经济增长有促进作用不同,这些转型国家家庭信贷的扩张对经济增长有负的影响作用。家庭信贷主要通过经常项目对宏观经济产生影响。     

试论我国证券信息动态披露制度的建立

信息披露制度是证券市场监管制度的基石。证券信息动态披露制度的建立,有其重要的现实意义,而由于证券信息动态披露制度具有强制性、单向性和程式性等法律特征,因此借鉴美国证券信息披露制度,建立我国证券信息动态披露制度既要完善企业法人治理结构,又要完善证券信息动态披露的监管体制,只有这样,才能推进我国多层次资本市场体系的最终建立。此外还要健全证券信息动态披露的有关法规制度和强化违反信息动态披露的责任追究制度。     

Firm entry, credit availability and monetary policy

This paper presents a dynamic general equilibrium model that incorporates firm entry under credit rationing. Goods-producing firms in this model are bank dependent in the sense that they have no choice but to borrow funds from banks to cover labor wages that must be paid in advance of production. The results show that a cut in the policy rate enhances firm entry by mitigating the severity of credit rationing. This policy transmission is different from the conventional balance sheet channel in that a change in the policy rate directly affects borrowers' credit availability. I also show that a sudden stop in the credit supply to new firms is most likely to occur shortly after a credit boom. This is because endogenous downward wage rigidity prohibits the credit risk of prospective firms from decreasing enough to re-equilibrate the loan market.     

基于Logistic回归的房客信用评价模型研究

国内的房屋租赁市场存在严重的房客信用缺失现象,给房东带来了信用风险,亟待建立科学的房客信用评价机制来控制信用风险。文章结合房屋租赁的具体情况,提出了一套房客信用评价指标体系,并使用问卷调查收集的房客数据建立了基于Logistic回归的评价模型,最后对模型进行了检验和评估。实证结果表明,利用此指标体系和评价模型能够有效地预测房客风险,为实际租房提供决策支持。     

基于Tobit模型的农户信用分析——来自CFPS的证据

农户二维信用包括守信意愿和守信能力。基于2011年北京大学公布的中国家庭追踪调查的微观数据,从农户借贷额度视角考察中国农户信用及其影响因素,并采用Tobit模型来研究正规金融机构、亲戚朋友以及民间借贷组织对农户信用评价之间的异质性差异。实证结果表明,从事农业生产的农户比从事非农业生产的农户守信意愿强。家庭财富是农户经营成果的表现,正向影响农户的守信能力。家庭人口特征中的不同因素对农户信用能力也有正负不同的影响。另外,品行和家庭收入对农户信用的影响在正规金融机构中较显著,而教育程度对其信用的影响在亲戚朋友中较显著。     

信用社担保贷款中的风险防范

着重探讨信用社风险必须从源头上警惕和防堵的问题。     

COLLATERAL AND CREDIT RATIONING: A REVIEW OF RECENT EMPIRICAL STUDIES AS A GUIDE FOR FUTURE RESEARCH

Abstract.  The relationship between firms and banks often suffers from informational opacity that may result in credit rationing. In theory, providing collateral to the bank can have a mitigating effect on these informational asymmetries and thus solve the credit-rationing problem. Even though collateral is already a widespread debt contract feature, recent trends predict that, in the future, collateral will become even more important for informationally opaque firms. The aim of this paper is twofold. First, we provide a review of the recently growing empirical research on collateral as a remedy for credit rationing. Second, we would like to pinpoint gaps and limitations in current empirical research. Most studies contend with a flawed research design by not distinguishing between business and personal collateral and excluding other information opaqueness reducing tools such as the strength of the relationship between borrower and lender, loan maturity and covenants. We also discuss the limitations of using a single equation estimation method and the usefulness of incorporating interaction effects into the estimation models. Finally, we provide suggestions for fruitful research avenues that would fill these gaps and enrich the empirical knowledge in this research domain.     

我国农村正式金融机构对农户的信贷配给--一个联立离散选择模型的实证分析

本文利用2003年约3000户农村家庭的抽样调查数据,从实证角度考察了我国农村正式金融机构向农户提供信贷服务时的配给行为。论文采用联立离散选择模型,较好地描述了农户贷款需求和银行贷款供给的相互作用。结果表明,我国农户面临着严重的信贷约束,一半以上具备有效需求的农户由于信贷配给无法得到正式机构的贷款。政府干预和信息不对称是造成农村信贷配给的重要原因,银行和信用社对农户的贷款决策主要决定于政府的农村金融政策。为改善农村信贷抑制程磨．政府必缅推动仓融机构的进一步改革。     

信息不对称下保险信用缺失分析及防范

当前,保险信用缺失已成为制约保险市场进一步发展的瓶颈。文中从投保人、保险人的逆向选择及道德风险三个方面阐述了保险信用缺失的原因,同时提出了健全我国保险信用体系的对策。