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1.
Most central banks perceive a trade‐off between stabilizing inflation and stabilizing the gap between output and desired output. However, the standard new Keynesian framework implies no such trade‐off. In that framework, stabilizing inflation is equivalent to stabilizing the welfare‐relevant output gap. In this paper, we argue that this property of the new Keynesian framework, which we call the divine coincidence, is due to a special feature of the model: the absence of nontrivial real imperfections. We focus on one such real imperfection, namely, real wage rigidities. When the baseline new Keynesian model is extended to allow for real wage rigidities, the divine coincidence disappears, and central banks indeed face a trade‐off between stabilizing inflation and stabilizing the welfare‐relevant output gap. We show that not only does the extended model have more realistic normative implications, but it also has appealing positive properties. In particular, it provides a natural interpretation for the dynamic inflation–unemployment relation found in the data. 相似文献
2.
Recent work on optimal monetary and fiscal policy in New Keynesian models suggests that it is optimal to allow steady‐state debt to follow a random walk. In this paper we consider the nature of the time inconsistency involved in such a policy and its implication for discretionary policymaking. We show that governments are tempted, given inflationary expectations, to utilize their monetary and fiscal instruments in the initial period to change the ultimate debt burden they need to service. We demonstrate that this temptation is only eliminated if following shocks, the new steady‐state debt is equal to the original (efficient) debt level even though there is no explicit debt target in the government's objective function. Analytically and in a series of numerical simulations we show which instrument is used to stabilize the debt depends crucially on the degree of nominal inertia and the size of the debt stock. We also show that the welfare consequences of introducing debt are negligible for precommitment policies, but can be significant for discretionary policy. Finally, we assess the credibility of commitment policy by considering a quasi‐commitment policy, which allows for different probabilities of reneging on past promises. 相似文献
3.
CHANG‐JIN KIM PYM MANOPIMOKE CHARLES R. NELSON 《Journal of Money, Credit and Banking》2014,46(2-3):253-266
We show that with a unit root in inflation, the new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) implies an unobserved components model with a stochastic trend component and an inflation gap. Our empirical results suggest that with an increase in trend inflation during the Great Inflation, the response of inflation to real economic activity decreases and the persistence of the inflation gap increases due to an increase in the persistence of the unobserved stationary component. These results are in line with the predictions of Cogley and Sbordone ( 2008 ), who show that the coefficients of the NKPC are functions of time‐varying trend inflation. 相似文献
4.
《新兴市场金融与贸易》2013,49(5):71-100
This paper seeks to shed light on the inflation dynamics of four new central European EU members: the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia. To this end, the New Keynesian Phillips curve augmented for open economies is estimated and additional statistical tests applied, with the following results: (1) the claim of New Keynesians that the real marginal cost is the main inflation-forcing variable is fragile, (2) inflation seems to be driven by external factors, and (3) although inflation holds a forward-looking component, the backward-looking component is substantial. An intuitive explanation for higher inflation persistence may be adaptive, rather than rational price setting of local firms. 相似文献
5.
Abhishek Das Arpita Ghose Gautam Gupta 《Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies》2016,9(2):204-216
This paper discusses an experimental study on the role of monetary policy within a New Keynesian macroeconomic framework. The novelty of this article is that each subject was asked to forecast both the inflation rate and output gap at the same time one period ahead, which is an improvement over the existing literature. We find that if both the expected inflation rate and expected output gap is incorporated in the monetary policy rule then inflation can be anchored and stabilized more efficiently. 相似文献
6.
The conventional policy perspective is that lowering the interest rate increases output and inflation in the short run, while maintaining inflation at a higher level requires a higher interest rate in the long run. In contrast, it has been argued that a Neo‐Fisherian policy of setting an interest‐rate peg at a fixed higher level will increase the inflation rate. We show that adaptive learning argues against the Neo‐Fisherian approach. Pegging the interest rate at a higher level will induce instability and most likely lead to falling inflation and output over time. Eventually, this would precipitate a change of policy. 相似文献
7.
Pau Rabanal 《Journal of Monetary Economics》2005,52(6):1151-1166
The baseline New Keynesian model cannot replicate the observed persistence in inflation, output, and real wages for sensible parameter values. As a result, several extensions have been suggested to improve its fit to the data. We use a Bayesian approach to estimate and compare the baseline sticky price model of Calvo's [1983. Staggered prices in a utility maximizing framework. Journal of Monetary Economics 12, 383-398.] and three extensions. Our empirical results are as follows. First, we find that adding price indexation improves the fit of Calvo's [1983. Staggered prices in a utility maximizing framework. Journal of Monetary Economics 12, 383-398.] model. Second, models with both staggered price and wage setting dominate models with only price rigidities. Third, introducing wage indexation does not significantly improve the fit. Fourth, all model estimates suggest a high degree of price stickiness. Fifth, the estimates of labor supply elasticity are higher in models with both staggered price and wage contracts. Finally, the estimated inflation parameters of the Taylor rule are stable across models. 相似文献
8.
A familiar result in the canonical Dynamic New Keynesian (DNK) model is that policymakers constrained by the zero bound can improve outcomes by promising to keep rates low after the zero bound is not binding. We examine a general class of interest rate pegs in a variety of DNK models. Standard versions of the model produce counterintuitive reversals where the effect of the interest rate peg can switch from highly expansionary to highly contractionary for modest changes in the length of the interest rate peg. This unusual behavior does not arise in sticky information models of the Phillips curve. 相似文献
9.
WOLFGANG LECHTHALER MEWAEL F. TESFASELASSIE 《Journal of Money, Credit and Banking》2023,55(8):2187-2213
We embed skill obsolescence and endogenous growth into a New Keynesian model with search-and-matching frictions. The model accounts for key features of the Great Recession: the “productivity puzzle” and the “missing disinflation puzzle.” Lower aggregate demand raises long-term unemployment and the training costs associated with skill obsolescence. Lower aggregate employment hinders learning-by-doing, which slows down human capital accumulation, feeding back into even fewer vacancies than justified by the demand shock alone. These feedback channels mitigate the disinflationary effect of the demand shock while amplifying its contractionary effect on output. The temporary growth slowdown translates into output hysteresis. 相似文献
10.
新型农村养老保险尚处于试点阶段.目前关于这项新制度的关注程度较高,本文对现有研究成果,从制度建立的必要性、地方政府能否承担财政补贴、如何有效运营和监管基金、如何有效建设经办机构、如何做好相关制度衔接等方面进行梳理,并对涉及制度健康运行的其他重要问题进行归纳,以期对新型农村社会养老保险制度提出对策建议. 相似文献
11.
The article estimates the impact of monetary policy on income inequality in China. The empirical time series analysis finds that a battery of monetary indicators and the change in the unemployment rate lead to increases in the Gini coefficient. But only unemployment is statistically significant. The lack of significance of the monetary indicators is robust to running different econometric models using nominal output as an alternative to unemployment. Unemployment’s impact on income inequality is robust to considering a fiscal policy proxy alongside inflation in the benchmark equation. 相似文献
12.
根据2005年1月~2009年6月中国股票市场政策性事件和上证综指的研究发现,2007年以来政策性事件造成的市场异常波动的比率显著下降,管理部门出台政策时更加审慎,管理模式从粗放向精细发展;股票市场对政策事件的反应趋弱,稳定性明显增强;利好性政策事件导致股市下跌势头转弱或从熊市转为牛市,利空性政策事件导致股市上涨势头转弱或从牛市转为熊市。 相似文献
13.
14.
We derive and estimate a New Keynesian wage Phillips curve that accounts for intrinsic inertia. In line with microevidence on wage setting, we consider a wage‐setting model featuring an upward‐sloping hazard function, based on the notion that the probability of resetting a wage depends on the time elapsed since the last reset. Our wage Phillips curve embeds also backward terms. We test the hazard function slope using generalized method of moment estimation. Then, placing our equation in a small‐scale New Keynesian model, we investigate its dynamic properties using Bayesian estimation. Model comparison shows that our model outperforms commonly used alternative methods to introduce persistence. 相似文献
15.
We analyse the optimal response of monetary policy to house prices in a New Keynesian framework. A positive wealth effect from housing is derived from liquidity constrained consumers. Housing equity withdrawal allows them to convert an increase in housing value into consumption and we show that monetary policy should react to house prices due to their effect on consumption by constrained agents. Moreover, we allow the share of liquidity constrained consumers to vary with house prices. Consequently, the optimal weights on expected inflation, the output gap and house prices in the optimal interest rate rule vary over time too. 相似文献
16.
本文从宏观经济的一般均衡模型出发,融入了股票价格和房地产价格变动,考察我国中央银行货币政策调控在经济增长和通货膨胀之间的目标规则,分析了影响货币政策规则参数变化的主要因素及潜在机制。本文的实证结果显示中央银行最优货币政策参数为0.144055,央行货币政策是逆周期操作,也意味着中央银行在制定货币政策时,赋予通货膨胀目标更高的权重;同时我国货币政策是逆房地产市场周期、顺股市周期的。进一步,本文从最优货币政策的角度考察了我国货币状况指数的权重。根据最优货币政策规则,货币状况指数权重为0.302876,即利率上升1%相当于汇率下降0.30%,意味着利率变动的效果要小于汇率变动的影响。 相似文献
17.
21世纪我国财务管理理论将会向多个领域学科交叉发展,可以预见,在新世纪里,财务理论将汇集金融、自然科学、社会科学、各门类科学的优秀成果而生成崭新的综合学科。同时,财务管理实务也将会有长足的发展。 相似文献
18.
How and under what circumstances can adjusting the inflation target serve as a stabilization-policy tool and contribute to welfare improvement? We answer these questions quantitatively with a standard New Keynesian model that includes cost-push-type shocks. Our proposed inflation target rule calls for the target to be adjusted in a persistent manner and in the opposite direction to the realization of a cost-push shock, which is essentially a makeup strategy. The inflation target rule, combined with a Taylor-type rule, significantly reduces inflation fluctuations originating from cost-push shocks and mitigates the stabilization trade-off, resulting in a similar level of welfare to that associated with the Ramsey optimal policy. 相似文献
19.
The (ir)relevance of real wage rigidity in the New Keynesian model with search frictions 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Michael U. Krause 《Journal of Monetary Economics》2007,54(3):706-727
We develop a New Keynesian model with search and matching frictions in the labor market. We show that the model generates counterfactual labor market dynamics. In particular, it fails to generate the negative correlation between vacancies and unemployment in the data, i.e., the Beveridge curve. Introducing real wage rigidity leads to a negative correlation, and increases the magnitude of labor market flows to more realistic values. However, inflation dynamics are only weakly affected by real wage rigidity. The reason is that labor market frictions give rise to long-run employment relationships. The measure of real marginal costs that is relevant for inflation in the Phillips curve contains a present value component that varies independently of the real wage. 相似文献
20.
经济全球化和我国对外投资的快速增长,将使我国国际税收的规模迅速扩大。本文认为,为了应对这种新形势,必须加强国际税收税源的信息化管理,明确我国国际税收的政策和管理目标,加快国际税收征收管理的制度完善和人才队伍建设。 相似文献