Why persistent high inflation impedes growth? An empirical assessment of threshold level of inflation for India

In the policy debate on growth–inflation trade-off and the role of monetary policy in managing the trade-off in the short-run, theoretical and empirical research suggests the presence of a country specific threshold level of inflation. Empirical findings of this paper suggest that for India the threshold level of inflation could be around 6%. The inflation target for monetary policy may have to be somewhat lower than the growth maximizing threshold, since any positive inflation could be a risk to inclusive and sustainable growth objective.     

Optimal monetary policy with endogenous entry and product variety

Deviations from long-run price stability are optimal in the presence of endogenous entry and product variety in a sticky-price model in which price stability would be optimal otherwise Long-run inflation (deflation) is optimal when the benefit of variety to consumers falls short of (exceeds) the market incentive for creating that variety—the desired markup; Price indexation exacerbates this mechanism. Plausible preference specifications and parameter values justify positive long-run inflation rates. However, short-run price stability (around this non-zero trend) is close to optimal, even in the presence of endogenously time-varying desired markups that distort the intertemporal allocation of resources.     

Menu costs and Markov inflation: A theoretical revision with new evidence

We revisit a foundational theoretical paper in the menu-cost literature, Sheshinski and Weiss [1983. Optimum pricing policy under stochastic inflation. Review of Economic Studies 50(3), 513-529], one of the few to treat stochastic inflation with persistent deviations from trend. In contrast to the original finding, we show that optimal pricing in this environment entails using different (s,S) bands in high-inflation and low-inflation states of the world. The low-inflation band is strictly contained within the high-inflation band. This revised solution has very different implications from the original one. Firms are generally risk loving, not risk averse, with respect to inflation. An increase in the variance of inflation increases price dispersion when inflation is high and decreases price dispersion when inflation is low. On an aggregate level, this optimal pricing would lead to bunching of prices and non-neutrality of money in the setting of Caplin and Spulber [1987. Menu costs and the neutrality of money. Quarterly Journal of Economics 102(4), 703-725]. To test the main finding, we construct an establishment-level dataset from the months surrounding Mexico's “tequila crisis” in 1995. In the high-inflation state, price increases are larger and establishments allow their prices to vary more widely around their respective long-run mean relative prices. Cross-establishment price dispersion is lower, but this result seems due to decreased establishment heterogeneity rather than narrower (s,S) bands. Overall, the evidence suggests that establishments employ wider (s,S) bands in the high-inflation state.     

美国农业补贴政策及其改革趋势

美国作为世界最大的农产品贸易国,对农业长期实行补贴政策。1995年以来,为适应WTO《农业协议》的要求,美国不断调整补贴形式,减少“黄箱”政策,扩大“绿箱”政策。美国的农业补贴政策及改革趋势对优化我国农业补贴的方式,特别是设计金融支农的政策措施有重要参考价值。     

中国货币政策环境分析(英文)

文章讨论了在当前中国央行面临的货币政策环境,从多方面考察了货币政策环境,并在最后给出应当采取的政策建议。     

货币政策有效性研究的最新文献述评

本文从常见研究视角和常用研究方法两个角度,对货币政策有效性研究的最新文献展开综述。通过综述本文发现,参考最优货币政策规则理论的模型设定思路和量化方法,不仅可以避免以多元线性回归模型和S-VAR模型作为重要工具的相关研究中存在的诸如价格之谜和产出之谜等问题,而且其研究结论与政策建议更有利于宏观经济的长期稳定发展。     

通货膨胀持久性的不确定性与货币政策：一个简单的分析框架

通过构建一个简单的分析框架研究通货膨胀持久性的不确定性与货币政策之间的关系。研究结果表明，当面对通货膨胀持久性不确定性时，低估通货膨胀持久性程度能够降低通货膨胀波动。更确切地说，不论是否存在通货膨胀持久性，低估通货膨胀持久性的货币政策是最优的。     

2011年宏观经济形势和政策前瞻

2011年,世界经济复苏进程依然艰难,且新兴市场和发达国家增长不平衡的局面将继续存在。国内经济增速将有所放缓,但仍将保持在较高水平,GDP增速将呈前低后高走势。通货膨胀压力仍然较大,预计全年CPI涨幅在4 5%左右,其中受翘尾因素影响,CPI月度涨幅高点可能出现在一季度。宏观政策方面,预计货币政策将继续稳中偏紧,信贷规模控制仍将是主要手段。     

从通货膨胀目标制看货币政策透明度建设

近年来，通货膨胀目标制已成为一种新的货币政策框架，而通货膨胀目标制的显著优点在于能通过增强货币政策的透明度，提高政策的可信度，进而提高货币政策的有效性。提高货币政策的透明度正在成为一种国际趋势。因此．本文通过借鉴实施通货膨胀目标制的西方发达国家的成功经验，探讨我国应如何加强货币政策透明度的建设，提高货币政策有效性。     

中国货币政策环境分析

文章讨论了在当前中国央行面临的货币政策环境,从多方面考察了货币政策环境,并在最后给出应当采取的政策建议.     

货币政策为何及如何关注食品价格

食品价格是通货膨胀压力的灵敏反映指标,且由于食品部门供应价格弹性、存货缓冲能力、需求价格弹性和生产效率相对较低,产品同质化程度相对较高,食品价格的弹性明显高于非食品价格,加之在通货膨胀和经济周期过程中,食品部门具有需求顺周期和供给逆周期的特征,食品价格波动幅度往往远高于非食品价格,存在一定程度的超调。因此,文章建议货币政策应充分关注食品价格,同时适当提高对食品价格波幅的容忍程度。     

2008年宏观经济及债券市场前景展望

该文分别从经济增长、资金面以及货币政策三个方面分析了宏观经济的前景,认为通货膨胀会见顶回落、债券市场的资金面和宏观货币政策会转为宽松;文章认为2008年宏观经济的增长将趋缓,但利率的由升转降以及资金面的宽松将使得债券市场得以起飞和发展。     

Dynamics of inflation in India: does the new inflation bias hypothesis provide an explanation?

In this paper we estimate the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) policy response to supply shocks. In particular, we exploit an important strand of the recent literature (the new inflation bias hypothesis) to understand why the two frequently cited measures of inflation in India have persistently diverged in recent years. Specifically, it is argued that the difference in coverage and weighting pattern between the indices interacting with policies pursued by the RBI to control its preferred inflation measure WPI turned out to be inappropriate with respect to stabilizing expected CPI-IW inflation. This in turn provides an explanation for the persistent divergence between the two measures of inflation.     

低通货膨胀与货币政策

持续15年的全球低通货膨胀,主要得益于各国成功的稳定化政策。低通货膨胀显示货币政策好处的同时,也给货币政策带来挑战。根据美日等国家的低通货膨胀经验,一个国家最好不要走向零利率的边缘,采取预防性的政策防止经济陷入通货紧缩至关重要。此外,需要正确认识货币政策的作用,货币政策长期的目标应该是为经济发展提供一个稳定的货币环境。美日国家预防低通货膨胀的经验对于中国宏观经济的平稳运行具有重要的借鉴意义。     

松货币紧财政:我国宏观经济政策组合的现实选择

财政政策和货币政策必须合理搭配,方可以发挥其政策效应.当前我国的经济运行已经出现重大转折,经济发展的中期上升趋势已经确立,原有行之有效的财政和货币政策组合也因此难以适应实际需要,必须及时进行相应的调整.     

What measure of inflation should a developing country central bank target?

In closed or open economy models with complete markets, targeting core inflation enables monetary policy to maximize welfare by replicating the flexible price equilibrium. We analyze this result in the context of developing economies, where a large proportion of households are credit constrained and the share of food expenditures in total consumption expenditures is high. We develop an open economy model with incomplete financial markets to show that headline inflation targeting improves welfare outcomes. We also compute the optimal price index, which includes a positive weight on food prices but, unlike headline inflation, assigns zero weight to import prices.     

我国当前通货膨胀影响因素及对策分析——基于2008年以来国家的货币政策

在面对2008年金融危机时,由于政策使用不当及执行力度不够,我国又迎来了新一轮的通货膨胀。本轮的通货膨胀主要是由于货币政策的失误导致货币供应量增加过快,引起总需求的扩大,进而导致价格持续上涨,而政府在短时间内难以控制货币供应量及信贷规模的增长,使目前的通货膨胀变得难以控制。     

我国的货币政策操作目标研究：1994—2007

本文通过对我国1994年至2007年货币政策操作目标进行历史回顾和实证分析,认为：在此期间,我国货币政策追求的目标实际上是在稳定汇率的基础上促进我国的经济增长;以后货币政策应以创造稳定的低通胀环境并以此促进经济增长为主要的目标,但同时也要防止汇率过度波动。