Addiction to debt forgiveness in developing countries: Consequences and who gets picked?

We explore whether the expectation of debt forgiveness discourages developing countries from attaining sustainable fiscal independence through improving their tax effort. While the international financial community advises poor countries to improve revenue mobilization, the same international community routinely bails out poor countries that fail to meet their loan repayment obligations, among other reasons as a result of the low tax effort they exercise. The act of bailing out creates an expectation about receiving debt forgiveness time and again in the future. The key prediction of our theoretical framework is that in the presence of debt forgiveness, countries’ tax efforts will decline and more so the higher the intensity of the bailouts. We test this proposition using data for 55 countries from 1995 to 2015. We find that debt forgiveness is significant in lowering tax effort. In addressing the potential of reverse causality, we also find that the international financial community has been more forgiving to countries that exert lower tax effort. These results, which are robust to various specifications, have significant policy implications for donor and recipient countries.     

Can tax regulations moderate revenue diversification and reduce financial distress in nonprofit organizations?

As a result of policies to reduce public deficit, nonprofit organizations have been forced to turn to charitable donations in order to diversify their revenue structure and thus reduce their levels of financial distress. Public administrations have supported this process through tax mechanisms designed to provide a legal framework that will encourage private philanthropy. Our aim is to analyse the role of nonprofit tax regulations in moderating the influence of revenue diversification on insolvency risk. To this end, we drew a sample of 406 nonprofit organizations located in Aragon and Navarre, two European regions with different tax regulations, for the period 2008–2018. Our results reveal that some tax regime requirements, such as the organizational purpose, minimum initial endowment, engagement in commercial activity, and accountability and monitoring standards, have a positive impact on revenue diversification and the reduction of financial distress and vulnerability. However, we also detect differences between regions which suggest that tax harmonization for nonprofit organizations remains a challenge.     

Beneficial impact of tax reforms on tax revenue performances in Togo: Myth or reality?

Tax reforms are often motivated by their potential to improve tax revenue mobilization. However, their actual impacts are difficult to quantify. Using cross-country panel data over the period 2000–2021, this article evaluates the impact of the 2012 tax reforms on tax revenue performance in Togo. We follow the Synthetic Control Method (SCM) estimation procedures. After comparing the observed evolution of Togo's tax revenue output in the period 2013–2021 with that of synthetic Togo, our estimates show that an accumulated yearly average gain is about 3.09% of GDP. Hence, the article concludes that after 9 years of reform, the improvement in Togo's tax performance is remarkable. However, more tax-related and institutions-related reforms are crucial to make Togo's tax system more buoyant and sustainably improve tax revenue mobilization.     

Central Transfer a Curse or Blessing? Evidence from the Relative Revenue Effort of Indian States

This paper evaluates the revenue effort of Indian states during the 13th and 14th Finance Commission periods and estimates the impact of central transfers recommended by the Finance Commission on the relative revenue effort of states. Using panel data the study finds that Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Assam and Kerala are the top five states with the greatest relative revenue effort. Further, the impact of central transfers on revenue effort was found to be negative, suggesting that greater devolution encourages laxity in the state's tax collection efficiency by providing perverse incentives.     

Fiscal efficiency,redistribution and welfare

The expanding literature on fiscal decentralization (FD) emphasizes the role of institutional mechanisms for FD's welfare effects. We analyze the welfare effects of FD in case of a fiscal transfer mechanism that punishes inefficiency in tax collection and compensates for local income deficiency. In addition, a portion of transfers is earmarked for investment. Given a level of FD and these rules, the representative local government chooses its tax collection effort to maximize local utility. The solution of the model reveals that the stricter the redistributive rule, the higher are steady-state fiscal efficiency and welfare. While the effectiveness of the redistributive parameters increases with centralization of the revenue pool, it decreases with the tax rate. Both welfare and income distribution, on the other hand, improve with the degree of revenue centralization and the tax rate. Besides, fiscal efficiency and redistribution decrease with investment-earmarked transfers.     

Laffer strikes again: Dynamic scoring of capital taxes

We set up a neoclassical growth model extended by a corporate sector, an investment and finance decision of firms, and a set of taxes on capital income. We provide analytical dynamic scoring of taxes on corporate income, dividends, capital gains, other private capital income, and depreciation allowances and identify the intricate ways through which capital taxation affects tax revenue in general equilibrium. We then calibrate the model for the US and explore quantitatively the revenue effects from capital taxation. We take adjustment dynamics after a tax change explicitly into account and compare with steady-state effects. We find, among other results, a self-financing degree of corporate tax cuts of about 70–90% and a very flat Laffer curve for all capital taxes as well as for tax depreciation allowances. Results are strongest for the tax on capital gains. The model predicts for the US that total tax revenue increases by about 0.3–1.2% after abolishment of the tax.     

Revenue‐enhancing Trade Liberalization in a Differentiated Duopoly

Existing studies suggest that in developing countries, tax reforms that increase consumption taxes can compensate for shortfalls in revenue from a tariff reduction. However, these revenue‐enhancing tariff–tax reforms have a critical shortcoming—they generally reduce welfare under imperfect competition. This paper shows that tax reforms such as consumption tax reforms do not necessarily have to be implemented to make up for revenue shortfalls from tariff reductions under imperfect competition, because trade liberalization through tariff cuts leads to an increase in government revenue when domestic and imported goods have a high substitutability. This revenue‐enhancing effect of a tariff reduction occurs for a wider degree of product substitutability when initial tariff and consumption tax rates are high. More importantly, we show that even if initial tariff and consumption tax rates are sufficiently low, a tariff reduction still increases government revenue for a low degree of product differentiation under Bertrand competition.     

Fiscal Equalization and Tax Enforcement

In many countries organized as federations, fiscal equalization schemes have been implemented to mitigate vertical or horizontal imbalances. Such schemes usually imply that the member states of the federation can only partly internalize (marginal) tax revenue before redistribution. Aside from the internalized marginal revenue, referred to as the marginal tax‐back rate, the remainder is redistributed. We investigate the extent to which state‐level authorities in such federation under‐exploit their tax bases. By means of a stylized model, we show that the member states have an incentive to align the effective tax rates on their residents with the level of the marginal tax‐back rate. We empirically test the model using state‐level and micro‐level taxpayer data, OLS regressions and natural experiments. Our empirical findings support the results from our theoretical model. Particularly, we find that states with a higher marginal tax‐back rate exploit the tax base to a higher extent.     

The determinants of hospital size: a survivor analysis

A common criticism of foreign aid is that it reduces domestic tax effort. Empirical research on the issue has been hampered by the failure to tackle endogeneity issues effectively. We use measures of geographical and cultural distance to donor countries as instrumental variables to uncover the causal effect of aid on tax revenue in a panel of 93 countries. The tax to GDP ratio is found to decrease following aid inflows. This reduction in tax effort is statistically and economically significant; a one SD increase in aid causes a 0.52 percentage point drop in the tax-to-GDP ratio. The results indicate that the effect is driven by unconditional grants, whereas aid given as loans induces recipient governments to improve their tax effort. Our results are robust to changes in the sample and the use of a nearest neighbour matching technique to account for nonrandom assignment of aid. Our identification strategy is sharpened by the use of a difference-in-difference estimation strategy that leverages a natural experiment in which aid flows exogenously increased for some countries following the Iranian Revolution in 1979.     

A basic tool to assess tax administration strength in emerging Europe

Large tax compliance gaps, together with the need to generate additional tax revenue have put a premium on tax administration reform in emerging Europe. The key features of an efficient tax administration are well established, but an objective assessment of the relative strengths and weaknesses of tax administrations have been lacking. This paper proposes a simple index of tax administration strength, based on objective indicators reflecting key organizational and operational aspects of revenue administrations relative to international best practice. A diagnostic test is then conducted to assess the performance of the proposed index in its ability to predict variations in tax collection efficiency in emerging Europe.     

Volatile Mining Revenues and State Government Budget Decisions

Mining royalties provide a volatile source of revenue for state governments in Australia. We explore the effects of changes in royalty revenue received by a state government on current-year budget decisions about expenditure, tax revenue and the budget surplus. The literature postulates different models for how lower-level government budget decisions respond to a revenue windfall from a higher level of government. Empirical evidence on these models over 1998–2019 provides strong evidence that over a half of a royalty windfall becomes a change in budget expenditure. Estimates of changes to tax revenues and the surplus are not definitive nor robust.     

Cigarette demand and tax policy for race groups in South Africa

This paper calculates cigarette demand for race groups in South Africa. Elasticities are the most important information a tax policy analyst can have. Elasticities determine how the tax base will change with a change in the tax rate and thus how government revenues will respond to the tax. Elasticities also determine the excess burden that consumers will bear as a result of the tax. As such, own price, crossprice, and expenditure elasticities are calculated along with government revenue maximizing tax rates, and total and excess burdens. Parametric and semiparametric estimation techniques are used and compared. Results show that a tax on cigarettes will discourage nonsmokers from starting to smoke and mainly raise revenue from current smokers. Furthermore, it is found that consumption behaviours between groups are different implying different government revenue maximizing tax rates for each group affecting the distribution of income.     

Dynamic scoring of tax reforms in a small open economy model

We examine dynamic revenue effects of a permanent tax cut on labor and capital income using a small open two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model. We use a dynamic scoring technique to calculate long-run as well as transitional effects on fiscal revenue when a tax cut is financed by either a lump-sum tax or consumption tax. We show that the revenue loss from an income tax cut becomes substantially smaller when agents can use international financial markets compared to the case of the closed economy. Responses of tradable and nontradable sectors to the capital income tax cut display a stark contrast in both long-run equilibrium and transitional dynamics due to different factor intensities. Capital income tax cut in the tradable sector is the most efficient policy instrument in terms of minimizing fiscal revenue loss. These simulation results suggest that fiscal sustainability issue when implementing a tax cut could be overstated.     

税收增速大于GDP增速的产业结构分析

Recently, qualitative and comparatively simple positive research on tax revenue increase faster than that of GDP are mostly based upon some factors, such as economic growth, levy technology enhancement, difference between structure of GDP and that of tax, excessive increase of high-tax industries due to local governments’ land-leasing behavior, etc. We firstly develop a theoretical model and responding algorithm about this phenomenon based on industry structure and their tax burden. Our model explicitly takes into account every industry’s contribution to this phenomenon. We attempt to provide a path for explaining tax revenue increase faster than GDP increase and suggestion for forecasting the change of macro-tax burden. __________ Translated from Shuliang Jingji Jishu Jingji Yanjiu 数量经济技术经济研究 (The Journal of Quantitative & Technical Economics), 2008, (10): 108–118     

"可税与否"未改变我国GDP与税收的基本关系——基于1978～2005年数据的实证检验

文章对我国GDP构成中不可税部分加以剔除,计算出1978~2005年可税GDP。使用相关性分析和时间序列分析的方法,研究了我国1978~2005年税收和可税GDP的总量及增量之间的关系,以及税收与可税GDP增长率之间的关系。研究结果发现:税收、可税GDP的总量和增量是协整的,并且具有高度的相关性。可税GDP增长率与税收增长率的相关性微弱,并且实际GDP增长率对实际税收增长率的解释能力很低。对照剔除前的计算结果,文章发现对GDP不可税部分的剔除并没有明显改变税收与GDP在总量、增量和增长率方面的基本关系。     

Incentive effects of fiscal rules on the finance minister's behavior: Evidence from revenue projections in Swiss Cantons

Predicting available tax revenue accurately is a key step of fiscal policy. It has recently been shown that revenue projection errors have a direct impact on fiscal deficits. In this paper, we explore the relationship between the ideology of the finance minister and tax revenue projection errors, and assess how the stringency of fiscal rules alters this relationship. We use a panel dataset of 26 Swiss cantons over the period 1980–2007 as well as a new dataset of 99 finance ministers at the cantonal level. Our empirical strategy exploits the fact that the allocation of the departments – including the department of finance – to the elected politicians is a random process from the point of view of the voters. We identify a rather counter-intuitive positive effect of the ideology of the finance minister on tax revenue projection errors in the sense that a more left-wing finance minister produces relatively more conservative forecasts. We also find that fiscal rules reduce the effect of ideology on tax revenue projection errors. These results suggest that left-wing finance ministers need to curb deficits relatively more in order to signal the same level of competence to the voters than right-wing finance ministers. They also suggest that fiscal rules render the signal less informative to the voters and thereby reduce the incentive for left-wing finance ministers to be more conservative in their projections.     

Tax Morale and the Taming of Leviathan

An explanation for tax morale based upon a simple model of psychological costs that depend on the perceived legitimacy of public policies is introduced. It is shown that empirically observed low levels of tax evasion can be explained even for a risk-neutral taxpayer with such a model. In a discussion of aggregate tax revenue, it is argued that tax revenue as a function of tax rates may differ fundamentally from the notorious Laffer curve. It is then necessary to look at the interaction of formal and informal institutions to predict the nominal tax rates chosen by a revenue maximizer.      

IMF conditionality supports revenue collection: is it just tax rates?

This article examines if the observed favourable impact of conditionality in IMF programmes on revenue performance arises from changes in tax rates. It does so by studying the experience of 126 low- and middle-income countries during 1993–2013. When changes in tax rates are controlled for, the impact of revenue conditionality (and especially conditionality on revenue administration reform) not only remains strong on value-added tax collection but also, in contrast to earlier results, it contributes to significant improvements in income tax collection.     

Consuming your way to efficiency: Public goods provision through non-distortionary tax lotteries

We revisit the classical result that taxation of private consumption is distortionary and therefore precludes the efficient provision of public goods. We introduce a nonlinear consumption tax which we call a ‘tax lottery’. Under this scheme, an ad-valorem consumption tax is supplemented with a lottery in which consumers can win cash prizes. The winning probabilities in this lottery depend on all consumers' private good consumption decisions. We show that for a given ad-valorem tax, an appropriately designed lottery can implement an efficient allocation in pure-strategy Nash equilibrium. The lottery component corrects the distortion in private consumption due to the ad-valorem tax, while the resulting tax revenue is sufficient to efficiently provide the public good and pay out the lottery prize.     

Dynamic elasticities of tax revenue: evidence from the Czech Republic

Tax revenue elasticities with respect to tax bases are key parameters for the modeling of public finances. Yet the existing studies estimating these elasticities for emerging countries disregard the effects of tax reforms on tax revenue, which renders their estimates inconsistent. We introduce a framework for estimating both short- and long-run tax revenue elasticities using quarterly data adjusted for the effects of reforms. Our results suggest that the long-run elasticities in the Czech Republic are 1.4 for wage tax, 0.9 for value added tax, 1.7 for profit tax and 1 for social security contributions. The adjustment process for value added tax and social security contributions is fast, but for the remaining two categories, it is important to distinguish between the short- and long-run elasticities: the initial response of revenue to changes in the bases is weak. In the case of wage tax it takes half a year for the elasticity to surpass unity.