Systemic risk: A new trade-off for monetary policy?

We introduce time-varying systemic risk (à la He and Krishnamurthy, 2014) in an otherwise standard New-Keynesian model to study whether simple leaning-against-the-wind interest rate rules can reduce systemic risk and improve welfare. We find that while financial sector leverage contains additional information about the state of the economy that is not captured in inflation and output leaning against financial variables can only marginally improve welfare because rules are detrimental in the presence of falling asset prices. An optimal macroprudential policy, similar to a counter cyclical capital requirement, can eliminate systemic risk raising welfare by about 1.5%. Also, a surprise monetary policy tightening does not necessarily reduce systemic risk, especially during bad times. Finally, a volatility paradox a la Brunnermeier and Sannikov (2014) arises when monetary policy tries to excessively stabilize output.     

Do subjective expectations explain asset pricing puzzles?

The structural uncertainty model with Bayesian learning, advanced by Weitzman (AER 2007), provides a framework for gauging the effect of structural uncertainty on asset prices and risk premiums. This paper provides an operational version of this approach that incorporates realistic priors about consumption growth volatility, while guaranteeing finite asset pricing quantities. In contrast to the extant literature, the resulting asset pricing model with subjective expectations yields well-defined expected utility, finite moment generating function of the predictive distribution of consumption growth, and tractable expressions for equity premium and risk-free return. Our quantitative analysis reveals that explaining the historical equity premium and risk-free return, in the context of subjective expectations, requires implausible levels of structural uncertainty. Furthermore, these implausible prior beliefs result in consumption disaster probabilities that virtually coincide with those implied by more realistic priors. At the same time, the two sets of prior beliefs have diametrically opposite asset pricing implications.     

The αVG model for multivariate asset pricing: calibration and extension

Luciano and Semeraro proposed a class of multivariate asset pricing models where the asset log-returns are modeled by a multivariate Brownian motion time-changed by a multivariate subordinator which consists of the weighted sum of a common and an idiosyncratic subordinator. In the original setting, Luciano and Semeraro imposed some constraints on the subordinator parameters such that the multivariate subordinator is of the same subordinator sub-class as its components, leading to asset log-returns of a particular Lévy type. This restriction leads to marginal characteristic functions which are independent on the common subordinator setting. In this paper, we propose to extend the original model by relaxing the constraints on the subordinator parameters, leading to marginal characteristic functions which become a function of the whole parameter set. Under this generalized version, the volatility of the log-returns depends on both the common and idiosyncratic subordinator settings, and not only on the idiosyncratic one, which makes the generalized model more in line with the empirical evidence of the presence of both an idiosyncratic and a common component in the business clock. For the numerical study, we compare the calibration fit of both univariate option surfaces and market implied correlations for a period extending from the 2nd of June 2008 until the 30th of October 2009 under the two model settings and assess the calibration risk arising from different calibration procedures by pricing traditional multivariate exotic options. In particular we show that the decoupling calibration procedure fails to accurately replicate the market dependence structure under the original model for highly correlated asset returns and we propose an alternative methodology which rests on a joint calibration of the univariate and the dependence structure and which leads to an accurate fit of the market reality under both the generalized and original models.     

Asset pricing anomalies: Liquidity risk hedgers or liquidity risk spreaders?

We capture two distinct investing preferences – hedging against aggregate liquidity risk or betting on it – in the cross-section of stock returns. A three-factor model underpinned by exposures to changes in market liquidity, isolating two alternating patterns, is developed. Our results can be summarized in the following ways: one, the improved performance of recent asset-pricing models is driven by factors that mimic liquidity risk hedging and are linked to cross-sectional mispricing. Two, our model outperforms competing models in explaining time-series return variation across market states. Three, our parsimonious model enables an understanding of diverging return premia in the cross-section. Four, the estimated risk premiums in our model correspond to theoretical, economic, and statistical restrictions holistically across varied and complex anomaly structures. In this respect, the performance of the proposed model is even better than the risk premiums on factors in the model that have the largest cross-sectional r-squared values.     

A new state in Europe? Scenarios for Catalan self-determination

Historically, the political structure of Spain has been a source of conflict: peripheral regions as Catalonia and the Basque country have questioned the centralized power of the state and have claimed a higher level of decentralization in view of their distinct history, cultural identity and language. Recently, political and social discontent has escalated in Catalonia, leading to the unilateral announcement of a Catalan self-determination referendum for November 2014. Regardless of political or ethical preferences, it will be necessary to foresee the consequences of this process for Catalonia, Spain and elsewhere. A scenario approach focuses on possible outcomes of the current debate rather than on the arguments put forward in the controversy. Those in favour of Catalan independence have depicted a future for their country with a booming economy that will situate it at currently unattainable levels of prosperity. Opponents of secession argue that Catalonia will become a failed state. These future visions of an independent Catalonia can be described as scenarios, the underlying assumptions and plausibility of which can be analysed. EU membership and the effect of borders on international trade are identified as key variables. The alternative scenarios will also be crucial to evaluate the broader impact of “a new state in Europe”.     

What do asset prices have to say about risk appetite and uncertainty?

Building on intuition from the dynamic asset pricing literature, we uncover unobserved risk aversion and fundamental uncertainty from the observed time series of the variance premium and the credit spread while controlling for the conditional variance of stock returns, expectations about the macroeconomic outlook, and interest rates. We apply this methodology to monthly data from both Germany and the US. We find that the variance premium contains a substantial amount of information about risk aversion whereas the credit spread has a lot to say about uncertainty. We link our risk aversion and uncertainty estimates to practitioner and “academic” risk aversion indices, sentiment indices, financial stress indices, business cycle indicators and liquidity measures.     

Can VAR models capture regime shifts in asset returns? A long-horizon strategic asset allocation perspective

It is often suggested that through a judicious choice of predictors that track business cycles and market sentiment, simple vector autoregressive (VAR) models could produce optimal strategic portfolio allocations that hedge against the bull and bear dynamics typical of financial markets. However, a distinct literature exists that shows that nonlinear econometric frameworks, such as Markov switching (MS), are also natural tools to compute optimal portfolios in the presence of stochastic good and bad market states. In this paper we examine whether simple VARs can produce portfolio rules similar to those obtained under MS, by studying the effects of expanding both the order of the VAR and the number/selection of predictor variables included. In a typical stock-bond strategic asset allocation problem, we compute the out-of-sample certainty equivalent returns for a wide range of VARs and compare these measures of performance with those typical of nonlinear models for a long-horizon investor with constant relative risk aversion. We conclude that most VARs cannot produce portfolio rules, hedging demands, or (net of transaction costs) out-of-sample performances that approximate those obtained from equally simple nonlinear frameworks. We also compute the improvement in realized performance that may be achieved adopting more complex MS models and report this may be substantial in the case of regime switching ARCH.     

Geopolitical risk and the returns and volatility of global defense companies: A new race to arms?

The ongoing war in Ukraine and rising geopolitical tensions between Russia and western countries have led several European countries to increase defense spending to historic levels. Under such intense circumstances, we examine the co-movements between the daily geopolitical risk (GPR) index and the daily returns and volatility of 36 global defense and aerospace companies covering ten countries and three continents. Using the wavelet coherence approach, we find significant co-movement concentrated around the eruption of the war in Ukraine, mostly for medium and longer scales, indicating a flight-to-arms phenomenon. The strong co-movement is significant for most of US and European companies. Specifically, the GPR index leads the return and volatility of several US and European companies at medium and longer scales throughout the war period, and its impact is mostly positive. Our findings offer new and interesting implications for multi-horizon market participants such as traders and investors.     

How well do classical credit risk pricing models fit swap transaction data?

Currency and interest rate swaps are subject to a complex, two-sided default risk. Several theoretical papers have recently addressed the problem of pricing this swap credit risk. We implement a recent credit risk pricing model in an attempt to evaluate one of the main lines of research in theoretical credit risk analysis. We compare the model's analytical results to actual transaction data thanks to a unique academic database on swap transaction data.     

Participation in risky asset markets and propensity for financial planning: a missing link?

This study examines whether the association between financial literacy and participation in risky asset markets is robust to variation on a more innate level: the propensity for financial planning. I find that individuals’ propensity for financial planning is strongly positively related to stock market participation as well as membership in a voluntary workplace retirement savings scheme. This result holds when controlling for financial literacy and a range of demographic and control variables in a multivariate regression setting. Importantly, the positive association between financial literacy and risky asset market participation also persists, suggesting that these two variables operate through separate channels.     

Learning to organise risk management in organisations: what future for enterprise risk management?

This paper identifies recurring issues in the regulation of new technologies through an historical review of the risk management of automobiles in the 1800s. Parallels are drawn between the regulation of early automobiles and that of the regulation of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UASs) today. It is found that many of the regulatory challenges facing UASs are analogous to those which faced the automobile industry more than a century and half ago and that the need for informed and objective decision making in policy development is reinforced. A systems engineering approach, based on general systems theory and decision‐based design principles, is then proposed as a means for improving the objectivity, transparency and rationality in the risk management decision making process. An example risk management decision making scenario is given within the context of a small UAS operating over a populated area. The results obtained from this case study illustrate how even simple analysis can support the decision making process and highlights some of the potential challenges in the regulatory approach currently applied to UASs.     

A new efficient method for estimating the Gerber–Shiu function in the classical risk model

In this paper, we propose a new efficient method for estimating the Gerber–Shiu discounted penalty function in the classical risk model. We develop the Gerber–Shiu function on the Laguerre basis, and then estimate the unknown coefficients based on sample information on claim numbers and individual claim sizes. The convergence rate of the estimate is derived. Some simulation examples are illustrated to show that the estimate performs very well when the sample size is finite. We also show that the proposed estimate outperforms other estimates in the simulation studies.     

A new family of equity style indices and mutual fund performance: Do liquidity and idiosyncratic risk matter?

We propose and test novel multifactor models of daily mutual fund performance. To this aim, we set up equity style indices and derive risk factors, which nest the established Fama and French (1992) and Carhart (1997) factors. We add two additional risk factors, namely idiosyncratic risk and Amihud (2002) liquidity. Our sample contains 528 actively managed mutual funds with European stock market focus during 2002 to 2009. Model estimation reveals that—while market excess return and size appear significant for the cross-section of all funds—the remainder factors explain the performance of subsets of funds. About one third of the funds exhibit significant factor sensitivities not only with respect to valuation or momentum, but also with respect to liquidity or idiosyncratic risk. No single risk factor is dominated and hence our six factor model may serve as a valid performance benchmark. In a four factor model setting, the Carhart model and a model with valuation replaced by liquidity perform best. Our results remain stable under various robustness checks. We further document that managers on average prefer liquid stocks, show no aggregate idiosyncratic risk preference and deliver results that are consistent with equilibrium models of fund performance.     

Sports betting as a new asset class—current market organization and options for development

New asset classes are originally distributed via over the counter channels; mostly negotiated, traded, and settled on a bilateral and ad-hoc basis. Subsequently, the demand for organized market services grows alongside trading volumes, number of market participants, and distribution reach. This paper focuses on sports betting as a new asset class and uses the analogies between the development of traditional and new asset classes as a framework to extend market organization. The first section motivates sports betting as a new asset class based on its economic relevance. In Sect. 2, the European market is described by product design, distribution platforms, and regulatory environment. In Sect. 3, we discuss the dimensions of market model, technology, and regulation as prerequisites to develop organized markets. Against this background, we compare the value chain in financial and sports betting markets to identify and describe three options for development: a regulated market environment, an inter-bookmaker platform, and central counterparty clearing services.

How much discretion for risk regulators?

We analyze the regulation of firms that undertake socially risky activities but can reduce the probability of an accident inflicted on third parties by carrying out non verifiable effort. Congress delegates regulation to an agency, although these two bodies may have different preferences toward the industry. The optimal level of discretion left to the agency results from the following trade‐off: the agency can tailor discretionary policies to its expert knowledge about potential harm, but it implements policies that are too “pro‐industry.” The agency should be given full discretion when the firm is solvent; partial discretion is preferred otherwise. We then investigate how this trade‐off changes as the political and economic landscapes are modified.     

When does leverage hurt productivity growth? A firm-level analysis

In the wake of the global financial crisis, several macroeconomic contributions have highlighted the risks of excessive credit expansion. In particular, too much finance can have a negative impact on growth. We examine the microeconomic foundations of this argument, positing a non-monotonic relationship between leverage and firm-level productivity growth in the spirit of the trade-off theory of capital structure. A threshold regression model estimated on a sample of Central and Eastern European countries confirms that TFP growth increases with leverage until the latter reaches a critical threshold beyond which leverage lowers TFP growth. This estimate can provide guidance to firms and policy makers on identifying “excessive” leverage. We find similar non-monotonic relationships between leverage and proxies for firm value. Our results are a first step in bridging the gap between the literature on optimal capital structure and the wider macro literature on the finance-growth nexus.     

Business risk auditing: A regressive evolution?—A research note

Business risk auditing (BRA) has been much publicised as revolutionary. The essence of the phenomenon, and the actual impact on practice, however, are unclear. This note revisits some pre-BRA interview evidence investigating auditor engagement with business risk. The evidence suggests that, pre-BRA, big-six auditors were already familiar with concepts of business risk although they were uncertain as to how precisely business risk informed the audit process. This suggests that BRA was evolutionary, rather than revolutionary, change and that the engagement of recent international standards with business risk is not significantly different from that of big-six auditors pre-BRA. The BRA era in audit methodology might be conceptualized as one of regressive evolution.     

Currency hedging for single-currency equity portfolios: Does cross-asset risk matter?

Foreign investors who are fully invested in a single-currency domestic equity portfolio are exposed to domestic equity risk, but also to currency risk. The standard approach to hedging the currency risk optimally is to estimate a single optimal hedge ratio, but this approach hedges only exchange rate risk, not cross-asset risk. We provide an alternative approach that estimates two optimal hedge ratios to adjust the currency exposures—one associated with the domestic currency and one associated with the foreign currency—and hedges both exchange rate risk and cross-asset risk. This alternative approach can significantly reduce risk.     

What firm risk factors drive bank loan pricing and other terms? Evidence from China

This study investigates how firm risk factors affect bank loan pricing. Although firm-specific stock price crash risk affects bank loan costs directly, it also prompts other risks, including financial restatement and litigation, which in turn trigger higher bank loan costs. Strong internal and external governance mechanisms help reduce agency problems and improve information transparency, alleviating the adverse effect of stock price crash risk on loan costs. Our results confirm that bankers take good corporate governance into account in their bank loan decisions. We also show that bond investors price the adverse effect of stock price crash risk, prompting higher corporate bond costs. Futher evidence suggests that banks impose stricter non-price terms, such as smaller loan size, shorter loan maturity, and a higher likelihood of collateral requirement, on firms with higher crash risk.     

Accounting and litigation risk: evidence from Directors’ and Officers’ insurance pricing

We study whether and how financial reporting concerns are priced by insurers that sell Directors’ and Officers’ (D&O) insurance to public firms. As D&O insurers typically assume the liabilities arising from shareholder litigation, the premiums they charge for D&O coverage reflect their assessment of a company’s litigation risk. Using a sample of public firms in the 2001–2004 Tillinghast D&O insurance surveys, we document that firms with lower earnings quality or prior accounting restatements pay higher premiums after controlling for other factors impacting litigation risk. In addition, insurers’ concerns about financial reporting are most evident for firms with restatements that are not revenue or expense related, are greater in the period following the passage of the Sarbanes–Oxley Act of 2002, and are greater for firms with financial reporting problems that linger. Our results are consistent with past restatements being viewed as evidence of chronic problems with a firm’s financial statements. By analyzing archival data, we can also quantify the effects of other determinants of D&O premiums (such as business risk, corporate governance, etc.) identified by Baker and Griffith (Univ Chic Law Rev 74(2):487–544, 2007a) through interviews regarding the D&O underwriting process.