Joint estimation of the Lerner index and cost efficiency using copula methods

This paper deals with the estimation of market power, measured by the Lerner index, and cost efficiency at the bank level, using the stochastic frontier (SF) methodology. Both market power and cost efficiency are estimated jointly in a single step. We use the copula method to incorporate dependence between market power and cost efficiency. In contrast to earlier works that used a two-step approach, the SF approach used herein estimates a bank-specific nonnegative Lerner index free from random shocks. We showcase the advantages of our proposed methodology in terms of an empirical study on the banking sectors of five former communist countries during the period 2000–2008. Compared to the conventional approach, our model gives higher mean values of the Lerner index and smaller standard deviations. Further, we find a significant positive relationship between cost efficiency and market power of banks, thereby rejecting the “quiet life hypothesis.”     

Measuring country event risk compensation on BRICs international portfolio management

The BRICs nations (Brazil, Russia, India and China) have a strong relative economic growth pattern in the world among economic powers. The allure of globalization has made the analysis and assessment of national critical component of international portfolio management in recent years. We construct the model from comparing the relative SD of stock return whereby higher SDs are generally associated with more risk. This relative SD forms a principle component in the change of the weights on the international portfolio choice. The result shows that event jump risk not only makes the investor's allocation more conservative overall, but also it can be compensated on BRICs event risk.     

Tail dependence analysis of stock markets using extreme value theory

Financial risk modelling frequently uses the assumption of a normal distribution when considering the return series which is inefficient if the data is not normally distributed or if it exhibits extreme tails. Estimation of tail dependence between financial assets plays a vital role in various aspects of financial risk modelling including portfolio theory and hedging amongst applications. Extreme Value Theory (EVT) provides well established methods for considering univariate and multivariate tail distributions which are useful for forecasting financial risk or modelling the tail dependence of risky assets. The empirical analysis in this article uses nonparametric measures based on bivariate EVT to investigate asymptotic dependence and estimate the degree of tail dependence of the ASX-All Ordinaries daily returns with four other international markets, viz., the S&P-500, Nikkei-225, DAX-30 and Heng-Seng for both extreme right and left tails of the return distribution. It is investigated whether the asymptotic dependence between these markets is related to the heteroscedasticity present in the logarithmic return series using GARCH filters. The empirical evidence shows that the asymptotic extreme tail dependence between stock markets does not necessarily exist and rather can be associated with the heteroscedasticity present in the financial time series of the various stock markets.     

Commodity market risk from 1995 to 2013: an extreme value theory approach

In this article we examine whether extreme risk has increased in the agricultural commodity market during the period 1995–2013. We add to the literature on food price volatility by analysing the tail segment of futures price return distributions. Food price variability is a concern for governments and regulators worldwide, as most nations trade in food. High food price variability can contribute to poverty and malnourishment, in particular for people in less economically developed economies. We find no indications of systematically increasing tail-risk for the commodities in our sample. Analysis of estimated shape-parameters of the Generalized Extreme Value distribution further supports the conclusion that there is no general systematic change in the extreme risk associated with these commodity investments.     

Student-t distribution based VAR-MGARCH: an application of the DCC model on international portfolio risk management

Significant second-moment transmission effects and obvious time-varying patterns of correlation coefficients among major equity and currency markets in the US, Japan and the UK are found to exist. Such observations inspire the time-varying setting of dynamic conditional correlation coefficients in MGARCH models. On the other hand, the multivariate Student-t distribution is suitable for analysing the visible leptokurtosis that is common in financial markets. Both are important for international portfolio risk management. Thus, a comparison on the hedging efficiency of hypothetical portfolios consisting of stock and currency future positions is conducted in order to justify the multivariate Student-t distribution based on the DCC-MGARCH model.     

Operational risk management and regulatory investment constraints on portfolio allocation: evidence from property and casualty insurers

Journal of Regulatory Economics - We examine an insurer’s portfolio allocation choice in the context of a regulatory environment where investment in specific asset classes is constrained. We...     

Forest management under fire risk when forest carbon sequestration has value

We develop a multiple forest use model to determine the optimal harvest date for a forest stand producing both timber and carbon benefits under a risk of fire. An empirical application is provided for a forest owner producing maritime pine in Southwest of France. Our results indicate that a higher risk of fire will decrease the optimal rotation period. On the contrary, higher carbon prices increase the optimal harvesting age. To investigate the contradictory effects of fire risk and carbon price on forest rotation, we identify the set of carbon prices and fire risks that lead to a given rotation age. We also show that forest owner's willingness to pay for a risk reduction can be substantial (37.33 euros by ha and by year to reduce the annual fire risk from 1.26% to 0.07%).     

基于价值链的企业信用风险管理体系

本文在科学把握企业信用风险管理和价值链理论的基础上，将波特价值链分析法应用于企业信用风险管理，以销售——回款过程为主线，构建了企业信用风险管理价值链，探讨了企业信用风险管理的基本理论和管理技术。     

Liquidity risk and bank portfolio management in a financial system without deposit insurance: Empirical evidence from prewar Japan

Using data from prewar Japan, this paper investigates the impact of a liquidity shock induced by depositors' behavior on bank portfolio management during financial crises in a system lacking deposit insurance. It is found that banks reacted to the liquidity shock sensitively through an increase in their cash holdings not by liquidating bank loans but by selling securities in the financial market. Moreover, banks exposed to local financial contagion adjusted the liquidity of their portfolio mainly by actively selling and buying their securities in the financial market. Finally, there is no evidence to conclude that the existence of the lender of last resort mitigated the liquidity constraints in bank portfolio adjustments.     

Managing portfolio risk in strategic technology management: evidence from a panel data-set of the world's largest R&D performers

In this article, we analyze the impact of firms’ technology bases on their financial performance. By taking a strategic perspective of technology, we argue that it is not sufficient to analyze only the size or novelty/quality of the technology base as technology bases can best be understood as portfolios of individual technologies. In such a framework, risk consideration should be taken into account. More specifically, we argue that increasing technological breadth can serve as a hedge against the inherent uncertainties of developing and commercializing technology, in particular when the technology base is very large or novel. We also propose that technology has higher impacts on financial performance for firms with broader technology portfolios. A similar argument proposes that technological breadth can offset the increased risks of addressing foreign markets. We test our hypotheses using an international panel data-set of large R&D-performing firms. Our results suggest that broad technology portfolios can indeed serve as a hedge against technological and commercialization risks.     

The value of health interventions: evaluating asthma case management using matching

Despite large public investments in asthma interventions, there are few rigorous assessments of these programmes and little understanding of what comprises an effective intervention. There is a lack of appropriate data, little technical support is provided, and the programs themselves have little incentive to conduct these analyses. In this study, we apply optimal full matching using propensity scores to estimate the impact of an asthma intervention programme across a range of health outcomes. Our participation model is derived using the Deletion, Substitution and Addition (DSA) algorithm, a method used in epidemiology for model selection. We find that the asthma programme in question has no significant effect on participants that distinguishes them from matched nonparticipants, but it is not clear whether this is due to the effectiveness of the programme, heterogeneity of effects or barriers outside the programme's control. Our findings do show how current programmes could be modified to increase their effectiveness and better inform future research.     

Exogenous shocks,dynamic correlations,and portfolio risk management for the Asian emerging and other global developed and emerging stock markets

ABSTRACT

This study examines the potential influence of exogenous shocks on time-varying correlations and portfolio strategies between the Asian emerging and other global stock markets including developed and other emerging markets. Using the ARMA-cDCC-FIEGARCH model with and without exogenous shocks, our results highlight the usefulness of including other global stock assets in the traditional portfolio for Asian emerging market investors. However, investors have limited opportunities to diversify their assets during the global financial crisis. Moreover, the shocks from the U.S. stock market have a greater influence on global stock markets compared to that from U.S. economic policy. Fortunately, the model with exogenous shocks improves its accuracy, which plays the same role of controlling structural breaks in the model. More importantly, incorporating exogenous shocks in our model also provides better value-at-risk performance results and hedging effectiveness. These results have several important implications for investors, researchers, and policymakers.     

Relationship between initiative risk management and firm value: evidence from Chinese financial listed companies

This study considers 189 Chinese financial listed companies between 2009 and 2013 as research samples to establish indicators for evaluating the initiative risk management behaviour of financial enterprises. This work further examines the relationship between initiative risk management and firm value. Results show that financial enterprises could effectively increase firm value by taking initiative risk management measures, such as setting up departments or positions that specialize in risk management, using financial derivative instruments or engaging popular international accounting firms as audit institutions. Moreover, results reveal that the permeability of initiative risk management has an unstable effect on firm value, that is, a nonlinear relationship exists between the permeability of initiative risk management and firm value.     

内部审计在企业价值增值中的运用——基于企业风险管理视角

世通舞弊、安然破产等等一系列事件的发生,引起了世人的广泛关注,加强企业内部风险管理迫在眉睫.企业内部审计以企业价值增值为目标,在加强企业风险管理方面发挥着不可替代的作用,必将成为后安然时代的一大亮点.本文从企业全面风险管理的角度来分析内部审计在实现企业价值增值和风险防范过程中的优势与不足,为内部审计参与企业风险管理出谋划策.     

Designing knowledge chain networks in China — A proposal for a risk management system using linguistic decision making

Designing Knowledge Supply Networks (KSN) with universities and research institutes has become a key source of technological innovations in Mainland China. In order to explore the key design principles, we first present typologies within KSN and explain the factors that can push, guide, or support the innovation process in such a network. Second, we identify and classify the particular risks that prevail when KSN are designed in an emerging region. To assess these risks, we next propose an advanced method that takes into consideration typical problems in group decision-making processes by applying linguistic operators derived from the field of decision theory and fuzzy-sets theory. The risk evaluation method is illustrated with a case study. Fourth, we offer advice on the mitigation of risks in KSN. Finally, we provide insights into the implementation of the risk evaluation method and its automation using Stakeholder Information Systems.