Bonus incentives and team effort levels: Evidence from the “Field”*

This study explores the effect of bonus incentive mechanisms with a focus on how such a scheme influences aggregate production levels of teams of workers, specifically. We identify this using data from a highly competitive setting in professional sport, which involves a unique tournament design rule in an elite European rugby competition. The modelling results demonstrate qualified evidence that introducing bonuses to encourage teams to score via the most-difficult, highest-reward mode, incentivizes teams to increase effort to earn the bonus, and without reducing production after the bonus is achieved.     

Does exchange rate pegging enhance credibility? Evidence from the European Monetary System

The European Monetary System (EMS) has been credited with immediately enhancing the credibility of onetary policy among its member countries. However, there is little empirical evidence to support this view. This study provides evidence from exchange rate data that political actions taken to support the EMS enhanced rate arangement. Further, empirical results were sensitive to the specification of the estimating equations, and varied dramatically if risk premia (discounts) were absent from estimating equations.     

Global banking,global crises? The role of the bank balance-sheet channel for the transmission of financial crises

We examine whether shocks to leveraged creditors with cross border holdings have an incidence on debtor countries׳ risk of suffering financial turmoil. We construct a new proxy of shocks to international banks׳ balance-sheets using credit ratings and the structure of their international assets. This allows us investigating the effect of (foreign) bank balance-sheet shocks on domestic financial turmoil in a large sample of 146 developed and emerging economies from 1984 to 2011. Our proxies of shocks towards bank balance-sheets are strong predictors of systemic banking crises in their debtor countries. Confirming these results, bilateral bank flows significantly decrease when creditor banks׳ assets are hit by negative shocks, as measured by credit rating downgrades from third-party countries. Short-term liabilities towards global banks appear to increase roll-over and funding risks, thereby amplifying the impact of shocks to foreign lenders’ balance-sheets. Domestic banking sectors vulnerabilities, such as illiquid assets and a low deposit-asset ratio, are found to increase crisis contagion risk. In contrast, a high level of global liquidity attenuates the transmission of shocks to international banks׳ assets to debtor countries.     

The economic contribution of the “C” in ICT: Evidence from OECD countries

Numerous studies have documented the contribution of ICT to growth. Less has been done on the contribution of communications technology, the “C” in ICT. We construct an international dataset of fourteen OECD countries and present contributions to growth for each ICT asset (IT hardware, CT equipment and software) using alternative ICT deflators. Using each country’s deflator we find that the contribution of CT capital deepening to productivity growth is lower in the EU than the US. Thus we ask: is that lower contribution due to a lower rate of CT investment or differing sources and methods for measurement of price change? We find that: (a) there are still considerable disparities in measures of ICT price change across countries; (b) in terms of growth-accounting, price harmonisation has a greater impact on the measured contributions of IT hardware and software in the EU relative to the US, than that of CT equipment; over 1996–2013, harmonising investment prices explains just 15% of the gap in the EU CT contribution relative to the US, compared to 25% for IT hardware; (c) over 1996–2013, CT capital deepening accounted for 0.11% pa (6% as a share) of labour productivity growth (LPG) in the US, compared to 0.03% pa (2.5% of LPG) in the EU-13 when using national accounts deflators; and (d) using OECD harmonised deflators, the figure for the EU-13 is raised to 0.04% pa (4% of LPG).     

Does increased credibility of elections lead to higher political competition? Evidence from India

A large amount of administrative effort is directed towards making elections credible and reducing electoral fraud in large democracies. However, it is not clear if such policy efforts have a feedback effect on political competition. In this paper, we exploit plausibly exogenous variation in perceptions of electoral credibility following the introduction of a technology-induced voting reform in India and find significant impacts on political competition. Electronic voting machines in India were mandated to include an additional layer of transparency by the introduction of a Voter-Verified Paper Audit Trail (VVPAT). We find that with the introduction of VVPAT, the winning margins and vote share of winners decline whereas the number of candidates in the average race increases. The results are robust to econometric concerns arising out of staggered implementation of the program providing support to our identification design. Our results also point to heterogeneous effects of the VVPAT roll-out in constituencies that received it only once relative to those that got the VVPAT in two successive elections. Interestingly, we note that much of the welfare improvement through increased political competition is reversed with more experience, suggesting the presence of important learning effects.     

Monetary policy and bank lending in a low interest rate environment: Diminishing effectiveness?

This paper analyses the effectiveness of monetary policy on bank lending in a low interest rate environment. Based on a sample of 108 large international banks, our empirical analysis suggests that monetary policy is less effective in stimulating bank lending growth when interest rates reach a very low level. This result holds after controlling for business and financial cycle conditions and different bank-specific characteristics such as liquidity, capitalisation, funding costs, bank risk and income diversification. We find that the impact of low rates on the profitability of banks’ traditional intermediation activity helps explain the subdued evolution of lending in the period 2010–14.     

Are monetary policy shocks causal to bank health? Evidence from the euro area

Despite considerable efforts of the European Central Bank (ECB) to support bank intermediation after the 2008 financial crisis, the recovery of euro area banks remained incomplete. Although many studies indicate that central banks can influence the stock prices of firms through their policy actions and communication, a knowledge gap exists as to whether the ECB's monetary policy can influence bank health. Through a high-frequency identification approach, this study reveals that the causal effect of conventional monetary policy action and communication by the ECB on bank stock prices differed over time, whereas its influence on bank financing costs was robust. This study provides new evidence showing that information effects related to policy easing surprises in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis hampered the ECB efforts to improve bank health and that its Odyssean communication signals (related to forward-looking announcements of policy easing) supported bank health during this phase. Local projections suggest that the response of banks to monetary policy shocks displayed some persistence, where ECB policy surprises and communications that shifted up (down) the yield curve were normally positive (negative) for bank health. The findings solicit a new perspective when assessing the influence of the ECB's monetary policy measures on euro area banks.     

International trade,foreign direct investments,and firms’ systemic risk : Evidence from the Netherlands

This paper measures the contribution of firms in the financial and non-financial sectors to systemic risk. We quantify systemic risk as possible risk spillovers from individual firms to the economy by taking into account time-varying linkages between the firm and the economy. Based on a novel dataset that combines data on international trade and foreign direct investments with daily stock data for 67 Dutch listed companies from 2006–2015, our results indicate that high systemic risk contributions are not only present in the financial sector, but also occur in other sectors of the economy. We find that firms within the financial sector are more capable than non-financial firms of reverting to their pre-financial crisis level of systemic risk contribution. Having examined the potential role globalization fulfills in determining systemic risk, we find two main opposing effects. First, firms in internationally trade-intensive sectors contribute less to systemic risk than firms in sectors with low trade intensity. Second, systemic risk rises when firms are engaged in foreign direct investment activity, suggesting that international networks and global supply chains contribute to systemic risk propagation. Our empirical results imply that macro-prudential policy aimed at monitoring systemic risk should be extended to non-financial sectors and should take into consideration globalization measures, such as foreign direct investments and global supply chains.     

An Empirical Test of the “Financial Accelerator” in China: Evidence from the Chinese Industrial Enterprises Database

The purpose of this paper is to test the applicability of the “financial accelerator” mechanism to China. Using the Chinese Industrial Enterprises Database, we find strong evidence suggesting that the employment and investment of leveraged firms are less responsive to aggregate fluctuations. This finding goes against the implications of the “financial accelerator”. To make sure our empirical result is reliable, we have done several robustness checks using different estimation methods and subsamples.     

Terrorism,openness and the Feldstein–Horioka paradox

This paper investigates how terror threats and international openness affect the savings retention coefficient in the Feldstein–Horioka equation. We find that terrorism marginally increases the size of this coefficient, which may result from an increase in the precautionary saving motives. However, even a small increase in openness offsets this effect and significantly lowers the propensity to retain domestic savings for investment. This suggests that, given more channels, capital leaves domestic boundaries to land in safe places abroad. At least partly, the results explain the paradoxical finding in the literature that capital is more mobile in developing countries, even though they are less open. We also find that all types of terrorism reduce investment.     

An empirical test of the regional innovation paradox: can smart specialisation overcome the paradox in Central and Eastern Europe?

The regional innovation paradox is the greater need of lagging regions to invest in innovation and their relatively lower capacity to absorb funding compared to more advanced regions. Using data on regional public spending, industry composition and economic performance, we test empirically whether there is a differential impact of European funding on regional economic growth between Eastern and Western European regions. We conclude that the paradox is proven and consider the extent to which smart specialisation strategies may help to improve the quality of governance of regional innovation systems.     

How much do tariffs matter? Evidence from the customs union of Belarus,Kazakhstan and Russia

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the early impact of the formation of the customs union of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia, and associated changes in import schedules on the structure of imports. Relying on an original data-set of statutory tariffs we find that trade creation effects were significant only in trade between Russia and third countries, but that there was some trade destruction, with a significant negative impact on imports from China to Kazakhstan and Russia, and on imports from the EU to Belarus. However, the magnitude of this effect is relatively small, suggesting that the benefits of the new tariff policy per se are limited at best.     

Technological change and the age–earnings profile: Evidence from the International Merchant Marine, 1861–1912

Models of vintage-specific learning predict systematic cross-technology differences in earnings among otherwise identical employees. This paper outlines a vintage learning model based on Chari and Hopenhayn's (1991, Journal of Political Economy) exposition. The model predicts that (i) the age–earnings profile is steeper in new technologies, (ii) the discounted present value of lifetime earnings are equalized across technologies, and (iii) the age–earnings profile in newer technologies becomes flatter over time. These predictions find support from a data set spanning a 52-year period beginning in 1861 that matches over 141,000 wage contracts accepted by merchant mariners to the technologies with which they worked. As a by-product, the paper reports some of the oldest evidence yet made available of the returns to literacy.     

Political pressures and the credibility of regulation: can profit sharing mitigate regulatory risk?

When price-cap rules determine the structure of prices for a long period, they suffer a credibility problem and introduce an element of risk especially if a firm’s profits are “too large”. Profit sharing may be seen as a device to pre-determine price adjustments and thus to decrease regulatory risk. We analyse the effects of profit sharing on the incentives to invest, using a real option approach. Absent credibility issues, a well designed profit sharing system may be neutral relative to a pure price cap. With regulatory risk, profit sharing is preferable to a pure price-cap one, if it intervenes for high enough profit levels.

More distance,more remittance? Remitting behavior,travel cost,and the size of the informal channel

The rising number of foreign workers in Italy during the last 15 years has led to a conspicuous increase in the amount of remittances sent abroad. In this paper, we examine the determinants of remittance outflows originated in Italy and transferred abroad through registered financial intermediaries. After controlling for a wide set of socioeconomic regressors, we document a strong positive relation between remittances and the cost of travel between Italy and the migrants' respective home countries. We interpret this result as indirect evidence of unrecorded flows, since the relation between remittances and travel cost should be non‐significant unless geographical proximity permits remitters to switch to informal (non‐observable) transmission mechanisms. Moreover, using data on temporal and monetary costs for a subset of bilateral corridors, we also find remittances to be negatively correlated with high transaction costs and low speed of transfer. We rely on this empirical evidence and on a model of migrants' remitting behavior to present new strategies for estimating the size of the informal outflow.     

A “penalty” discount rate,bank behavior,and price and output stability

The purpose of this paper is to provide an evaluation of the implications of the adoption of a penalty rate discount window policy for bank behavior and for price and output stability. A basic model of the banking firm is used to show that adoption of a penalty rate policy alters the sensitivity of bank portfolio demands to changes in the open market rate, to which the penalty discount rate is deterministically related. In the context of a macroeconomic model that takes into account this interaction of discount window policy and bank behavior, it is demonstrated that adoption of a penalty rate policy generally would have ambiguous implications for the variability of real output and the price level.     

“Remembrance of things past”: Gordon Tullock,the man and the bioeconomist

My tribute paper on Gordon Tullock (1922–2014) provides some memorable stories of Tullock as a person and as a founder of bioeconomics. I include my speech, “Toast and roast: Gordon Tullock,” delivered on the occasion of Tullock’s 80th birthday; also the same “Toast and roast....,” written in the form of a poem, “Ode to Gordon Tullock.” I also discuss Tullock’s contributions to bioeconomics. In a concluding section, I recall a couple of my poignant memories of Gordon Tullock.     

P2P Loans and bank loans,the chicken and the egg,what causes what?: further evidence from a bootstrap panel granger causality test

This study attempts to re-investigate the causal link between bank loans and Peer-to-Peer (P2P) loans from China using data sets from eight areas (i.e., Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, Hubei, Guangdong and Sichuan) over 2014M1-2016M4. We apply a bootstrap panel causality analysis that considers both cross-dependency and heterogeneity across cities. The empirical results indicate a unidirectional Granger causality running from P2P loans to bank loans for Beijing, Shanghai, Zhejiang and Shandong; feedback between P2P loans and bank loads for Jiangsu only and independence for the other three areas (i.e. Hubei, Guangdong and Sichuan).     

Determinants of bank’s interest margin in the aftermath of the crisis: the effect of interest rates and the yield curve slope

Empirical Economics - This paper analyses the determinants of net interest margin, focusing on the impact of interest rates and the slope of the yield curve, using a broad panel of data from 32...