Balance Sheet Effects, Bailout Guarantees and Financial Crises

This paper provides a model of boom-bust episodes in middle-income countries. It is based on sectoral differences in corporate finance: the nontradables sector is special in that it faces a contract enforceability problem and enjoys bailout guarantees. As a result, currency mismatch and borrowing constraints arise endogenously in that sector. This sectoral asymmetry allows the model to replicate the main features of observed boom–bust episodes. In particular, episodes begin with a lending boom and a real appreciation, peak in a self-fulfilling crisis during which a real depreciation coincides with widespread bankruptcies, and end in a recession and credit crunch. The nontradables sector accounts for most of the volatility in output and credit.     

External Constraint and Financial Crises with Balance Sheet Effects

This article investigates the dynamic implications of Krugman's (1999 Krugman, P. 1999. Balance sheets, the transfer problem, and financial crises. International Tax and Public Finance, 6(4): 459–472. (doi:10.1023/A:1008741113074)[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) model of financial crises with balance-sheet effects, which has a considerable impact on the literature of international financial crisis. Considering explicitly the wealth-accumulation constraint and the external equilibrium condition, I describe an emerging-market financial crisis as a jump from an unstable dynamic trajectory to a stable one, instead of a jump from a ‘good’ to a ‘bad’ equilibrium with zero investment and zero foreign debt. By discriminating the financial crises according to the severity of the negative impacts of some internal and external factors, this article also adds some insights into the anti-crisis policy.     

Currency Crises, Monetary Policy and Corporate Balance Sheets

Abstract. This paper studies how the exposure of a country's corporate sector to interest rate and exchange rate changes affects the probability of a currency crisis. To analyze this question, we present a model that defines currency crises as situations in which the costs of maintaining a fixed exchange rate exceed the costs of abandonment. The results show that a higher exposure to interest rate changes increases the probability of crisis through an increased need for output loss compensation and an increased efficacy of monetary policy in stimulating output. A higher exposure to exchange rate changes also increases the need for output loss compensation. However, it lowers the efficacy of monetary policy in stimulating output through the adverse balance sheet effects of exchange rate depreciation. As a result, its effect on the probability of crisis is ambiguous.     

Balance Sheet Restructuring and Investment

Abstract
This article looks at the evolution of corporate balance sheets and investment over the past few years .
We find that many companies have significantly improved their balance sheets in this time. Leverage has been reduced, and this, coupled with lower nominal interest rates, has improved the interest cover and cash flows of the corporate sector. For many firms, the process of balance sheet repair has proceeded a long way so that the extent to which the financial position of firms will impinge on investment is much lower than it was a few years ago.
Looking further ahead, it appears that the rate of return to investing in capital is relatively high, at least when judged against the standards of earlier downturns. With the recovery picking up pace we should, therefore, see firms more inclined to expand their capital expenditure and less focused on financial restructuring.     

Globalisation, Growth and Crises: The View from Latin America

In this paper I analyse the role of openness and globalisation in Latin America's economic development. The paper is divided into two distinct parts: I first ( Sections 2 to 4 ) provide an analysis of 60 years of the region's economic history, that go from the launching of the Alliance for Progress by the Kennedy administration in 1961, to the formulation and implementation of the market oriented reforms of the Washington Consensus in the 1990s and 2000s. I conclude that Latin America's history has been characterised by low growth, high inflation and recurrent external crises. In Section 5 I deal formally with the costs of crises and I estimate a number of variance component models of the dynamics of growth. I find that external crises have been more costly in Latin America than in the rest of the world. I also find that the cost of external crises has been inversely related to the degree of openness.     

货币错配与银行危机和货币危机

货币错配是新兴市场在经济全球化过程中所无法避免的问题,它具有净外币负债和净外币资产两种表现形式.在新兴市场中,只要其银行体系存在大规模的货币错配,不管表现为哪一种形式,都会增加其金融体系的脆弱性;而且在宏观或微观经济基本面恶化的情况下,可能引发银行危机甚至是货币危机.此外,当出现不利冲击时,银行体系中存在货币错配将会导致其资产和负债的期限错配进一步恶化.     

External Shocks, Balance Sheet Contagion, and Speculative Attack on the Pegged Exchange Rate System

A simple monetary model is built to illustrate that the pegged exchange rate system will collapse under an unstable external environment via the balance sheet contagion and the "boiling frog" effect, even if the domestic policy and the fundamentals are sound. If agents anticipate this happening, a speculative attack may still occur. This result is different from that of the first-generation currency crisis model, where the inconsistent domestic policy brings in the collapse of the peg. The policy options to defend the peg in the author's model depend on the nature of the shock. Effective capital control can only be implemented for capital outflow shock. Capital account deregulation is more stabilizing under a current account deficit shock, however. This paper also distinguishes the effect of capital mobility with that of the asset substitutability, as they have completely different impacts on the peg.     

自然资源资产负债表的编制框架研究

自然资源资产负债表是十八届三中全会提出的新的资源管理手段,目前还处于探索阶段。成熟的资产负债表管理、遥感科学和信息技术的深入发展、绿色国民经济账户与生态系统服务理论的不断创新,为设计自然资源资产负债表提供了坚实的理论和方法基础。在详述自然资源资产负债表的概念、理论和方法的基础之后,文章从资产、负债和所有者权益三个角度提出了自然资源资产负债表的构架、具体的构成科目以及每个科目的核算方法,并从会计核算、监测制度、数据管理、统计制度和评价考核等五个方面对相关的制度创新问题进行了探讨。     

货币危机对产出的影响--一个货币危机的综合模型

不同的货币危机对经济产出水平有不同的影响,文章主要研究货币危机与产出水平之间的关系.文章构造了一个由IPLM曲线和总产出曲线构成的汇率-产出模型,揭示了三代货币危机模型的内在关联性.在这个简单的货币危机综合模型中,第一代货币危机模型和第二代货币危机模型被作为第三代货币危机模型的特例,从而把三代货币危机模型统一起来,解释了不同货币危机对产出水平的不同影响.     

Futurity,Pro-cyclicality and Financial Crises

Nearly a century ago, one of the leading forefathers of the school of evolutionary economics, John R. Commons, coined the term ‘futurity’ to describe an epochal change in the late nineteenth-century advanced economies. Futurity refers to the reorientation of economies towards the future, and specifically to the fledgling practice of treating businesses as ‘going concerns’ and measuring its value in terms of their anticipated future profits. Curiously, the implication of such epochal changes on the performance of the financial system had rarely been discussed, let alone addressed. This article presents a theoretical argument that suggests that futurity encourages pro-cyclical dynamics that are pulling the financial systems in ever more violent and disastrous swings.     

Gender,Distribution, and Balance of Payments Constrained Growth in Developing Countries

An unresolved debate in the development literature concerns the impact of gender equality on economic growth. Previous studies have found that the effect varies, depending on the measure of equality (wages or capabilities). This paper expands that discussion by considering both the short and long run, evaluating the effects of gender equality in two types of economies—semi-industrialized economies (SIEs) and low-income agricultural economies (LIAEs). Further, it incorporates gender effects on the balance of payments constraint to growth. The results suggest that gender wage and capabilities equality work in opposite directions in SIEs and in the same (positive) direction in LIAEs. In the long-run analysis, government macroeconomic management policies are shown to be necessary in order to ratify movements towards gender equality.     

Securitization,Social Distance,and Financial Crises

Because the process of securitizing home mortgages played a critical role in precipitating the recent financial crisis, it is widely agreed that this market must be reformed to prevent future collapses. Most proposals focus on improving the dissemination of information among securitization participants, and on strengthening incentives to discourage excessive risk-taking. This paper argues that because securitization involves the commodification of the lending relationship, it reinforces the type of self-interested behavior that often undermines regulatory efforts. What are needed are structural reforms that encourage moral behavior by narrowing the social distance between lenders and borrowers. This can be accomplished by a return to traditional banking lending, supplemented by the use of covered bonds to loosen credit constraints and to help financial intermediaries manage market risk.     

Securitization,Social Distance,and Financial Crises

Because the process of securitizing home mortgages played a critical role in precipitating the recent financial crisis, it is widely agreed that this market must be reformed to prevent future collapses. Most proposals focus on improving the dissemination of information among securitization participants, and on strengthening incentives to discourage excessive risk-taking. This paper argues that because securitization involves the commodification of the lending relationship, it reinforces the type of self-interested behavior that often undermines regulatory efforts. What are needed are structural reforms that encourage moral behavior by narrowing the social distance between lenders and borrowers. This can be accomplished by a return to traditional banking lending, supplemented by the use of covered bonds to loosen credit constraints and to help financial intermediaries manage market risk.     

海洋捕捞渔业资源资产负债表编制研究

海洋捕捞渔业资源对我国的海洋经济发展、食品生产与居民就业具有重大意义,其资产负债表的编制有助于摸清家底,实现渔业资源的可持续利用.本研究系统梳理了相关研究成果,从会计假设、会计要素、编制步骤三个方面阐述了海洋捕捞渔业资源资产负债表的编制思路,结合生态补偿探讨了海洋捕捞渔业资源负债,将其划分为应付海洋捕捞渔业资源补偿、应...     

International Transmission of the People's Bank of China's Balance Sheet Expansion

The People's Bank of China's (PBoC) balance sheet expanded more dramatically than any of its major international counterparts during the past decade. The main contribution to this expansion was the rapid accumulation of the central bank's foreign assets, as a result of foreign exchange market intervention. In this paper, we examine the possible international transmission of this expansion by analyzing monthly data for China and 15 other countries over the period 2000–2012. Impulse response analysis based on vector autoregression modeling suggests that the PBoC's balance sheet expansion has greater impacts on developing than on developed countries. So far the influences appear to be dominated by “trade channels” instead of “financial channels,” possibly due to China's capital account controls. However, the impacts of the PBoC's balance sheet expansion on other countries' interest rates, exchange rates, and stock market prices could strengthen significantly in the coming years as China's economic scale grows and its capital account opens up.     

基于可流动性资产负债表的我国政府债务风险研究

政府资产是政府债务顺利偿还的基础,当政府资产低于其负债时,政府债务将面临一定风险,因此基于政府资产负债的视角,本文结合中国实际首先编制了一个简化的政府"可流动性资产"负债表,然后,分析了1998—2008年我国政府仅考虑直接债务时的政府债务风险,并且对2009—2010年的政府债务风险进行了分析。研究表明,2003—2006年因外汇储备急剧增长使我国政府债务风险总体较小且比较稳定,但因金融危机的爆发,我国政府债务风险在此期间前后的两次金融危机中都比较大,金融危机对政府债务风险的影响显著。研究还表明,积极的财政政策对短期降低政府债务风险具有明显效果,且1997年亚洲金融危机和2007年美国次贷危机对我国政府债务风险的影响具有相似性,即金融危机爆发后的几年内政府债务风险会因积极的财政政策而经历"大—小—大"的变化过程。最后,通过引入政府或有债务,分析了具有或有债务时的政府债务风险。本文认为,只要我国政府的或有债务规模不超过24万亿元人民币,则我国的政府债务风险较小。     

Interbank Lending, Liquidity and Banking Crises

In this paper, we show that abandoning the Diamond and Dybvig hypothesis of a unique bank representing the entire banking system gives rise to the possibility of endogenizing the interbank exchanges. In a system characterized by uncertainty regarding the moment of withdrawal of deposits, access to interbank liquidity decreases the bank risk of failure and bank runs. The possibility, moreover, to invest excess liquidity in the interbank market at a positive interest rate increases expected bank profits.
(J.E.L.: E52, G21).