Won’t we scare them? The impact of communicating uncontrollable risks on the public’s perception

Authorities often refrain from communicating risks out of fear to arouse negative feelings amongst the public and to create negative reactions in terms of the public’s behavior. This study examines the impact of communicating risks on the public’s feelings and behavioral intentions regarding an uncontrollable risk related to fresh produce. In addition, the impact of risk communication is compared between a situation in which the risk either does or does not develop into a crisis, by means of a 2 (risk communication vs. no risk communication)?×?2 (crisis communication vs. no crisis communication) between-subjects factorial design. The results show that communicating risks has a positive impact on the behavioral intention to keep on eating fresh produce compared to when no risk communication was provided, as it reduces negative feelings amongst the public. In addition, the findings illustrate that when a risk develops into an actual crisis, prior risk communication can result in greater trust in the government and reduce perceived government responsibility for the crisis when the crisis hits. Based on these findings, it can be suggested that risk communication is an effective tool for authorities in preparing the public for potential crises. The findings indicate that communicating risks does not raise negative reactions amongst the public, on the contrary, and that it results in more positive perceptions of the authorities.     

How do policymakers and think tank stakeholders prioritize the risks of the nuclear fuel cycle? A semantic network analysis

In recent years, the importance of stakeholder involvement and of integrating diverse perspectives into risk management has gained increasing recognition. However, it remains a challenging task to identify all potentially relevant stakeholders and to reliably describe their deeply held beliefs regarding the risks associated with complex industrial systems. For example, the development of advanced nuclear fuel cycles presents such a case. Based on a review of policy-making literatures and a content analysis of congressional records, we identify federal agencies and nonprofit policy institutes (also known as ‘think tanks’) as key stakeholders that are representative of those actively involved in making high-level decisions on the US nuclear energy policy. Using a semantic network analysis approach, we visually delineate the thematic areas of each party’s perceptions concerning fuel cycle risks. The results show that although governmental and think tank stakeholders share common concerns in areas such as nuclear waste management, the economics of nuclear facilities, and proliferation, they tend to focus on distinct aspects of each area. Moreover, while governmental stakeholders are primarily concerned with the environmental and local impacts of nuclear fuel cycles, think tank stakeholders focus more on the relative advantages and disadvantages of nuclear energy compared to other alternative energy options. Implications for risk management and risk communication are discussed.     

论汉语语义场的义位确定

汉语是语义语言,在汉语语义场构建的不同环节必须遵循不同的方法,才能准确描述出在很多方面不同于语形语言语义网络的汉语语义网络。义位确定是构建汉语语义场的基础,汉语义位确定的程序和方法具有特殊性。     

An Agency Analysis of Firm Diversification: The Consequences of Discretionary Cash and Managerial Risk Considerations

Firm diversification is shown to be a function of excess discretionary cash flow and managerial risk considerations. We measure firm diversification using the concentric diversification index. The index is positively related to both the number of business units in the firm and the extent to which the business firm's segments differ. Consequently, the measure provides a proxy for how firm diversification decisions impact the risk of the firm, and the measure is found to be inversely related to both total risk and unsystematic risk. Consistent with the agency arguments of discretionary cash flow, we find the level of excess discretionary funds in the firm to be a significant positive determinant of the level of firm diversification. We also find support for both a wealth transfer hypothesis over low levels of managerial ownership, and a managerial risk aversion hypothesis over high levels of managerial ownership.     

金融风险、政府救助与主权信用风险

本文构建政府、企业、银行的三部门经济模型,研究政府救助行为对主权信用和金融风险的影响,理论模型指出政府对金融救助所增发的债务越多,财政缺口引发的主权信用风险越高;被救助银行作为政府债券的持有者和被担保者,其风险随着主权信用风险上升而上升。实证检验结果表明:在控制了保障性支出等经济社会因素后,政府债务增长率对主权信用违约互换价差存在显著的正向影响;在政府救助后,主权部门与金融部门之间形成了风险"闭环"。     

按市场原则构建风险管理机制与管理理念--澳大利亚联邦银行风险管理机制与文化考察及启示

解决我国国有商业银行存在的巨额不良资产问题,必须严控增量风险,同时切断继续累加存量风险的渠道.为此,借鉴澳大利亚联邦银行风险管理的经验,国有商业银行要按\"一放、一垂直、一集中\"的思路调整信贷链中相关部门的职责和管理架构,实现政策制定和执行相分离、独立性的风险集中评价及对风险放大客户的信用恢复等;此外,建立\"垂直领导、集中管理、派驻监督\"的稽核体制,并以\"零容忍\"维护制度执行;在考核上要以风险揭示、风险处理和结果反映等指标相互配合,使风险考核覆盖资产运行全过程;同时,将风险管理理念作为一种企业文化融入各项经营之中.     

企业风险管理中的风险沟通机制研究

ERM是当今企业风险管理的核心标准,风险沟通是风险管理的重要方法,但企业风险沟通的研究尚不完备。本文将社会公共领域的风险沟通理论与COSO框架下的企业风险管理相结合,提出了一个风险沟通的理论假说,以全面风险感知、相互信任、伙伴关系和双向沟通模式作为该假说的四大支柱,以全面综合的方法,从企业内部(纵向)和企业外部(横向)两个维度构建了企业风险沟通体系,期望能够为企业层面的风险沟通发挥积极的作用。     

Does an Agency‐Type of Audit Model Fit a Stewardship Context? Evidence from Performance Auditing in Dutch Municipalities

The degree of auditor independence is an important issue in the performance auditing literature. However, little attention has been paid to the influence of the context in which an audit body operates. This paper investigates how an audit model with a high degree of auditor independence, which is consistent with agency theory's rather formal view of relationships in organizations, functions in a context with more informal relationships, as implied by stewardship theory. Based on two case studies and a survey, the paper concludes that Dutch councilors are more satisfied with audit reports if in their municipality there is a fit between context and audit model.     

政府审计、贫困县官员政绩压力与债务风险

以经济人假设、政府审计是治理政府官员代理问题的免疫系统为理论基础,利用2015-2018年H省贫困县政府债务数据,实证检验政府审计抑制贫困县官员政绩压力对债务风险的影响。研究发现：官员政绩压力与贫困县债务风险显著正相关,政府审计的揭示、预防功能对抑制贫困县官员政绩压力影响债务风险的作用显著,而其抵御功能不显著。鉴于此,应构建和运用政府债务“数智审计”、系统改进官员绩效考核制度和科学合理地利用债务资金的杠杆作用,以助力实施“巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果同乡村振兴有效衔接”战略。     

地方政府财政风险:表现形式、成因与防范

财政是政府实现其职能的重要手段和经济基础.目前我国财政状况相当严峻,财政风险已逐渐凸现.与中央政府相比,我国地方政府运行困难更大,而与之相伴的财政风险的危害也更大,并且具有向上级传导风险的特性,从而有可能给国家公共财政体系带来各类风险.本文试图从我国地方财政风险的表现形式入手,探索其形成的深层原因,并提出了防范地方财政风险的制度、政策建议.     

Credit risk and bond pricing of local government in China

The relationship between credit risk and the pricing of local government bonds in China is explored in this paper. The pricing of local government bonds was found to reflect credit risk, but the risk premium was small. The type of bond (‘directional’ or ‘non-directional’) significantly affected pricing. Repayment source had no effect. The authors make recommendations for the central government, local governments and investors.     

系统重要性地方政府综合识别研究——基于个体风险与信息传染风险视角

从\"太大而不能倒\"和\"联系太紧而不能倒\"两个维度,分别运用因子分析和转移熵网络分析测度地方政府的个体风险与信息传染风险,综合识别我国系统重要性地方政府。结果表明:两个维度综合确定的我国系统重要性地方政府名单更为符合系统重要性之要义;根据个体风险指数和传染风险指数的排名组合情况,可将31个地方政府归为四类;针对不同类型的系统重要性地方政府,监管部门应采取针对性的监管措施;传染风险对系统重要性的贡献更大,处于风险传染网络中心的地方政府需要实行更加严格的管控。     

CEO Ownership and Discretionary Investments

Abstract:  This study investigates empirically the relationship between CEO ownership and discretionary investments such as R&D and capital expenditures. We assert that the under-investment problem is high for R&D-intensive projects, while the over-investment problem is high for capital expenditures because of differences in risk between the two types of investments. Building on the linkages between investments and investment-related agency problems, we hypothesize that the relationship between CEO ownership and investments depends on whether increasing ownership mitigates or exacerbates the under- or over-investment problem. We find a non-linear association between CEO stock ownership and R&D investments; R&D investments increase and then decline across increasing levels of ownership. Further, we find that R&D investments and CEO stock options are positively associated at high levels of option holdings. In contrast, capital expenditures do not vary with CEO ownership (stock or options). Finally, consistent with our underlying assumption, we find that the influence of R&D investments on future firm risk is significantly larger than that of capital expenditures. Our findings indicate that managerial risk aversion affects discretionary investments.     

Do bankers on the board reduce crash risk?

Commercial banker‐directors (CBDs) bring both financial expertise in risk management and conflicts of interest between shareholders and debtholders. The burgeoning literature on stock price crash risk generates important questions of whether CBDs reduce crash risk. Using BoardEx data from 1999 to 2009, we find supporting evidence that the firms with CBDs experience lower stock price crash risk. Moreover, the reduction of crash risk is more pronounced for high‐risk firms under the monitoring of affiliated banker‐directors. The results of this study are robust to the Heckman selection model, propensity score matching, and alternative measures of crash risk.     

论广义语义场和狭义语义场的互动——以汉语“东、南、西、北”方位词语义场为例

拟以汉语"东、南、西、北"四个方位词的关系义场为例,揭示各级各类语义场的互动性特征。意在说明对汉语词义的理解、描写和应用要兼顾其在语义网络中的运动状态。